Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I might put Crosby in the top 5 honestly. Your kicker isn't a problem you want to have to solve mid-year. I think that's the top 4. I don't think anyone else is really "season's over" type of loss. Crosby probably isn't that, but you might go through four guys before you find one that sticks.

[adambr2]

No kicker loss should ever threaten a season. Even the difference between a bad (75%) kicker and a good (85%) kicker is only 2 to 3 FGs at the end of a season.

 

Losing Crosby would be far from ideal but they could bring in Stephen Gostowski or Eddy Piniero off the street tomorrow and probably get 80% out of them if they absolutely needed to. It certainly wouldn't compare to losing a key piece on offense or defense.

[FVBrewerFan]

De'Vondre Campbell is probably top 5, as crazy as that is to say out loud. He's controlled the middle of the field better than any ILB in recent memory, way better actually.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

No kicker loss should ever threaten a season. Even the difference between a bad (75%) kicker and a good (85%) kicker is only 2 to 3 FGs at the end of a season.

 

Losing Crosby would be far from ideal but they could bring in Stephen Gostowski or Eddy Piniero off the street tomorrow and probably get 80% out of them if they absolutely needed to. It certainly wouldn't compare to losing a key piece on offense or defense.

 

It's not that simple and this is why it's hard to gauge. Aaron Jones or someone like that is more impactful to a game than any kicker, but if Aaron Jones has a bad game it is unlikely to single-handedly cause a loss. A QB can have that kind of impact but a kicker missing 2 FGs can be devastating. Talk to a Cowboys fan if you think a bad kicker can't be a multi-year disaster that loses multiple games while multiple guys try and fail to win the job.

 

At most of the positions there is someone else to provide some replacement value and you can change the gameplan to mask the loss of what was there. There is no doing that with a reliable kicker, you either make kicks or you don't. Yeah, you might be OK with Gostkowski, but we've all see situations where a kicker is plucked off the WW that week and it leads to a total disaster. That can directly lose a game, which is sometimes all it takes to miss the playoffs.

 

So I don't think K is quite to the level of those most important positions, but I think you're dead wrong that a kicker loss can't derail a season. Especially one as reliable as Mason has been for a while now.

[adambr2]

No kicker loss should ever threaten a season. Even the difference between a bad (75%) kicker and a good (85%) kicker is only 2 to 3 FGs at the end of a season.

 

Losing Crosby would be far from ideal but they could bring in Stephen Gostowski or Eddy Piniero off the street tomorrow and probably get 80% out of them if they absolutely needed to. It certainly wouldn't compare to losing a key piece on offense or defense.

 

It's not that simple and this is why it's hard to gauge. Aaron Jones or someone like that is more impactful to a game than any kicker, but if Aaron Jones has a bad game it is unlikely to single-handedly cause a loss. A QB can have that kind of impact but a kicker missing 2 FGs can be devastating. Talk to a Cowboys fan if you think a bad kicker can't be a multi-year disaster that loses multiple games while multiple guys try and fail to win the job.

 

At most of the positions there is someone else to provide some replacement value and you can change the gameplan to mask the loss of what was there. There is no doing that with a reliable kicker, you either make kicks or you don't. Yeah, you might be OK with Gostkowski, but we've all see situations where a kicker is plucked off the WW that week and it leads to a total disaster. That can directly lose a game, which is sometimes all it takes to miss the playoffs.

 

So I don't think K is quite to the level of those most important positions, but I think you're dead wrong that a kicker loss can't derail a season. Especially one as reliable as Mason has been for a while now.

 

I mean sure if you end up with a Roberto Aguayo situation. Those are pretty rare, you just hear about them when they happen. When a kicker is doing his job which the vast majority of them do successfully most of the time it is not really discussed.

 

Tampa Bay had no kicker going into their championship season. They just picked up Ryan Succop who got cut because he was a disaster in 2019 and then all of the sudden he was Mr. Reliable again last year and the Bucs win the Super Bowl and he gets a big extension. I just don't see the correlation between your kicking game and championship chances. Justin Tucker is by far the best kicker to ever breathe and sure it's a nice luxury for the Ravens but it doesn't move the needle a ton on their title chances.

 

Kickers are the bullpen arms of baseball. They are very volatile from year to year. Even Crosby is not immune to down kicker years, his 2012 season would have landed him out on the street if he didn't have a patient organization. Most kickers won't survive a 63% FG season. Even as recently as the 2017 and 2018 seasons he was not particularly great but he has certainly been excellent since the beginning of 2019.

[adambr2]

And if what I say comes off as "I dislike Mason Crosby" that is certainly not the intent. He's certainly one of the longer tenured Packers and I respect that. I like Mason. Mason is fine. Mason is a good kicker. He's just not "special". 15 or 20 teams in the league have their own version of Mason Crosby, that's all I'm saying. Kickers are awesome these days. The league average for FGs usually comes in at around 84%.

 

But if you value less volatility at the position, Mason does offer that (I say less, not no volatility), I can understand placing a value on that.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You've gone on the Mason thing before and I know where you stand so I'm not going to beat a dead horse. But I think your view of kickers is far, far too myopic. Kicking for the Packers isn't the same as kicking for the Falcons and the guy has hit some absolutely huge outdoor kicks, not just game winners, but games the Packers have lost. The one he hit into a brutal wind just to get the NFCCG vs. Seattle in OT was incredible. He had one really bad year which usually costs a guy his job, but I think you drastically short change Crosby just because of high-level % made stats.

 

The last time this circled around you ended up comparing him to Tucker who is literally the best kicker in the history of the sport. I still think Mason is a top 8-10 kicker of the last 15 years or so.

[roadcrew3]

To be honest, Jaire missing extended time is fine as long as he isn't out for the season. If he is done for the season then this is a different conversation but for now, assuming he is out 5-8 weeks, other guys will get more experience and be forced to step up. All it does is strengthen the football team come playoffs.

 

I've stated before, I think this regular season for the Packers is really similar to what the Bucks went through last year. Results don't matter as much given the weak division. During the regular season you need to focus on building experience with the younger guys, develop players, and learn how to play multiple different styles so that come playoffs you're ready to handle whatever opponents might throw at you. If you can further develop the players like Stokes, Sullivan, King, Gary, the rookies on the line etc and then get your studs like Jaire, Bahk, Z back for the stretch run you're going to be in good shape - even if that means you drop a game or two during the regular season that you might've won years prior.

 

Again, though this assumes Jaire and (hopefully) Z are able to come back eventually

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah I agree that if Jaire can return they will win enough games without him to make the playoffs. The division looks awful and the seeding, I couldn't care less about.

 

If this is a season ending injury though, I guess bring on the Bucks and Brewers. They're not getting to the Super Bowl with those corners.

[adambr2]

I still think Mason is a top 8-10 kicker of the last 15 years or so.

 

I don't have a problem with this. It's all subjective anyway depending on your criteria.

 

Crosby is actually only 9 for 14 on game winning or potentially game winning kicks in his career which is 64.3%. However if you just look at the last 6 years he is 6 for 7. So it just really depends on how you look at his career as a whole. I do tend to think he's a different kicker now than he was early in his career up to 2012 which does skew the percentages against him.

[pacopete4]

Mason is 44 for his last 46 kicks in the past 3 seasons for a 96% FG percentage. It’s crazy to see how he’s gotten better with age.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I still think Mason is a top 8-10 kicker of the last 15 years or so.

 

I don't have a problem with this. It's all subjective anyway depending on your criteria.

 

Crosby is actually only 9 for 14 on game winning or potentially game winning kicks in his career which is 64.3%. However if you just look at the last 6 years he is 6 for 7. So it just really depends on how you look at his career as a whole. I do tend to think he's a different kicker now than he was early in his career up to 2012 which does skew the percentages against him.

 

When you have to break down most of Crosby's struggles/inconsistency in the "early" part of his career being 6 seasons, and then his career has now had 9 more seasons after that at some point you've got to realize that he's probably a pretty darn good kicker or otherwise he'd never have lasted 15+ seasons with one team in the NFL.

 

I remember early in his career when Crosby had the most inconsistency, it wasn't like he was missing a bunch of FGs under 40 yards even then - his disastrous 2012 kicking season was largely impacted by him being 2-9 from 50+, and four of his season's 5 missed FG attempts under 50 came in that one game at the Lions. Crosby has the longevity that he has with the Packers because after he "lost it", he found a way to recover and actually become a more reliable kicker before getting cut - when most other kickers start "losing it", the can't rebound quickly enough before their original team cuts them.

 

Ask the Bears and Vikings if they'd rather have GB's situation over the last 15 seasons or their own - I'd imagine the overall percentage of kicks made/missed between them and the Packers is quite similar over that time, but that doesn't mean there's a huge difference in having confidence in your kicker being able to make a big kick when it matters most at the end of a game and having that moment resting on one kicker over those years instead of 5-8 different ones depending on which season you're talking about from 2007-present. Some of that stigma rests more with the organizations than with the individual kickers they bring in - the endless churning at that spot almost is self-perpetuating because I think it messes with the guys they bring in mentally. Hell, the Vikings drafted Carlson in 2018 in the 5th round and cut him after TWO games following a 3 FG missed game at Green Bay - and was picked up by the Raiders and has been a very reliable kicker ever since.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Agree with all of the above. Evaluating a kicker is just not as simple as looking at FGM/FGA and ranking by percentage.

 

There are too many variables, like the venue most of the kicks are made, or that having a big leg will result in a coach forcing more low-percentage kicks. There's no difference between missing a 43-yarder to win and a 64-yard "well why not?" try at the end of the first half.

[CheezWizHed]

The world demands advanced metrics for kickers! Somewhere Ditka is crying in a corner.... .

 

But seriously it is true that kicking at Lambeau is very different than warm weather and/or domes. I did a breakdown (somewhere on LL.net) of his misses back in the day and came to the same conclusion that his misses over 50 yds was a major reason his FGM/FGA looked so "bad" and that he had more attempts than most that year.

[roadcrew3]

Rumors circulating on Twitter that Jaire may be able to play as soon as this weekend with a brace. Haven't seen it confirmed by any of the main insiders yet though.

 

With the way Packers tend to treat injuries, I would bet there is no chance he plays this weekend but still good to hear that it may not be as significant an injury as initially thought. I guess it is fingers crossed one of the reputable insiders confirms the same report.

[areacodes]

From Silverstein on Jaire’s injury:

 

[FVBrewerFan]

Interesting. I guess I don't really care if he can play a CF type safety position on obvious passing downs. Question is when can he play corner without a brace. If the answer is by the end of the regular season, I'm fine.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think Cobb's great game is a fluke moving forward. I think this shows why Rodgers wanted him back to fit in this offense Lafluer runs. Cobb may have not been used much in the early part of the season as he was learning the scheme. Remember Cobbs wasn't a Packer under MLF. Geronimo was awful. MVS isn't a slot guy. Lazard provides more value by blocking than being a go-to for Rodgers. I think Cobb becomes this 3rd down option beyond Adams he hadn't had the last 2 seasons and Cobb's numbers will be a strong #2 WR while playing slot.

[CheezWizHed]

Great news on Jaire. I'd even be ok keeping him out a couple games to get healthy for the gauntlet of 4-5 games in the middle.

 

As for Cobb, I think he fills what was missing skill-wise on the team (or at least confidence wise with Rodgers): the short route guy. Adams can do the short routes, but is much more valuable going intermediate routes. MVS and Lazard are better in intermediate-long routes (Lazard just takes some time to get going, MVS doesn't have the footwork to win early).

 

Either they don't use their RBs for safety valve-type routes or Rodgers doesn't like using them... but when Adams is double covered and the pass rush is high, they have struggled to consistently find that guy that is open in 5-7 yards. I was happy they drafted WR-Rodgers, but helps to let him develop behind Cobb too.

[roadcrew3]

I would bet Jaire ends up on the short-term IR to give him additional time to recover. Next three games are very winnable even without him.

[CheezWizHed]

From Silverstein on Jaire’s injury:

 

 

Pet Peeve of mine:

1) Calling someone a GOAT is an insult in my book. Yes, I know what the acronym stands for, but it is still a goat...

2) Anyone calling Tom Silverstein the Greatest of all Time is a joke beyond comprehension. Or maybe he is just a goat?

[SomewhereInTime]

From Silverstein on Jaire’s injury:

 

 

Pet Peeve of mine:

1) Calling someone a GOAT is an insult in my book. Yes, I know what the acronym stands for, but it is still a goat...

2) Anyone calling Tom Silverstein the Greatest of all Time is a joke beyond comprehension. Or maybe he is just a goat?

 

I could not agree more with number 1. Be an adult, say "greatest of all time" if you mean greatest of all time. Don't call somebody a farm animal unless you mean to insult them.

[PinaMadness]

Great news on Jaire. I'd even be ok keeping him out a couple games to get healthy for the gauntlet of 4-5 games in the middle.

 

As for Cobb, I think he fills what was missing skill-wise on the team (or at least confidence wise with Rodgers): the short route guy. Adams can do the short routes, but is much more valuable going intermediate routes. MVS and Lazard are better in intermediate-long routes (Lazard just takes some time to get going, MVS doesn't have the footwork to win early).

 

Either they don't use their RBs for safety valve-type routes or Rodgers doesn't like using them... but when Adams is double covered and the pass rush is high, they have struggled to consistently find that guy that is open in 5-7 yards. I was happy they drafted WR-Rodgers, but helps to let him develop behind Cobb too.

Maybe Cobb could fill in for Alexander for a couple weeks. That was a pretty sweet pass defense he displayed guarding Adams on that one play.

[adambr2]

From Silverstein on Jaire’s injury:

 

 

Pet Peeve of mine:

1) Calling someone a GOAT is an insult in my book. Yes, I know what the acronym stands for, but it is still a goat...

2) Anyone calling Tom Silverstein the Greatest of all Time is a joke beyond comprehension. Or maybe he is just a goat?

 

There was someone (journalist? announcer?) who referred to Tom Haudricourt as "Mr. Baseball" a few years back, which frankly should probably be punishable as a felony.

[nodakfan17]

Packers considered a favorite to trade for Stephon Gilmore:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/packers-considered-favorites-trade-stephon-142257578.html