Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[SeaBass]

I kinda feel like the Packers want to move on from Rodgers sooner rather than later. I could be wrong and it's not like I'm rooting for his departure but just the way they've approached this off season causes me to feel like he plays this season and maybe next but not any longer. Unless he takes them all the way to a Super Bowl victory, then I think they have no choice except to commit to him.

 

I'm really interested to see Love get some playing time this pre-season. He's been such a mystery it has to be one of the most anticipated events in the entire NFL this year.

[CheezWizHed]

Now QBs are ready early, and the way contracts work, they are cheap when they are young.

 

I don't think QBs are any different now compared to before - nearly everyone takes some level of development. Some more than others. Since 2000, 6 QBs have won the Super Bowl on their rookie contract. Three of them were on the last year of the final year of their rookie contract, 2 were on the 2nd to last year and the last was Tom Brady (who one it twice on his rookie contract).

- Caveat - I'm going on memory for the years they won the SB. I looked up the information a bit ago, but didn't write this part down. I know nearly all of them took 4-5 years.

 

Contracts are certainly different so that teams aren't forced to push a QB in before they are ready. In the cases I mentioned before (Brooks, Detmer, Hasselback, Brunnel), each only had a year or so of their rookie contract left. But since none of them "broke out" before the trade, I believe each signed a pretty minimal deal a year or so after the trade. I think Hasselback and Brunnel each got bigger deals later, while Brooks and Detmer fizzled out. So technically the trading team got each QB for a number of years on a cheaper contract.

 

Love/Rodgers situation is very different however. If Love sat for 3-4 years behind Rodgers and showed enough to increase his trade value from a late-first rounder, we'd just keep him as Rodgers couldn't have much left even if he was playing at an MVP level. And I doubt he will increase his value in one pre-season set of games.

 

My guess is that we keep Love on his rookie deal to replace Rodgers whenever he hangs up the cleats (or we trade him).

 

Edit: Detmer wasn't traded, but signed as a FA with Philadelphia.

[adambr2]

https://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2021/03/30/green-bay-packers-bringing-back-defensive-tackle-tyler-lancaster/7060568002/

 

Now THIS seemed to be somewhere to go the "addition by subtraction" route.

[PeaveyFury]

Well, yuck. Color me ultra-disappointed if Lowry/Lancaster is again the plan at 2021 DE.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well, yuck. Color me ultra-disappointed if Lowry/Lancaster is again the plan at 2021 DE.

 

I would hope that, if they don't make any additions, Keke at least played himself into a spot where he is above Lancaster on the depth chart.

[PeaveyFury]

Good point on Keke. I have little doubt that Lancaster is making anything beyond the vet minimum, but I'll maintain my 'yech' stance.

[homer]

Lancaster is fine as long as he is limited to 1 snap a week.

[GAME05]

Certainly some of the scouts must have also seen Love as a very special talent who didn't come around often whom they just had to have. Meanwhile SF is throwing their future at the third-best QB and they don't even know which one they'll be getting.

 

I get the feeling Rodgers' MVP season surprised a lot of front-office folks. I'd venture to guess half are wanting to ride out Rodgers' thee years and the other half are excited about what they'd get in a trade for a still-good QB.

 

If we have some 42-14 games I wonder if we'll get to see Love play a quarter or two.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Certainly some of the scouts must have also seen Love as a very special talent who didn't come around often whom they just had to have. Meanwhile SF is throwing their future at the third-best QB and they don't even know which one they'll be getting.

 

I get the feeling Rodgers' MVP season surprised a lot of front-office folks. I'd venture to guess half are wanting to ride out Rodgers' thee years and the other half are excited about what they'd get in a trade for a still-good QB.

 

If we have some 42-14 games I wonder if we'll get to see Love play a quarter or two.

 

I think that's a good bet. The newly announced 17-game season may lead to some additional time for Love as well.

[PinaMadness]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

[PeaveyFury]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

 

Good thing the offseason isn't over. And I'd expect Dillon/Williams to wash in 2021.

[PinaMadness]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

 

Good thing the offseason isn't over. And I'd expect Dillon/Williams to wash in 2021.

Yes, we certainly could get better with a good draft. I'm not going to hold my breath on that though.

[PeaveyFury]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

 

Good thing the offseason isn't over. And I'd expect Dillon/Williams to wash in 2021.

Yes, we certainly could get better with a good draft. I'm not going to hold my breath on that though.

 

Seems like an odd stance to take considering how well they've drafted under Gute.

[FVBrewerFan]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

 

Yea, and I have no problem running it back if it comes to that. One of those years where there's plenty of players that could improve over last year.

 

But, much like the angst about the Brewers lack of moves every December, there's still montgs to make moves, and the draft of course.

[PinaMadness]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

 

Yea, and I have no problem running it back if it comes to that. One of those years where there's plenty of players that could improve over last year.

 

But, much like the angst about the Brewers lack of moves every December, there's still montgs to make moves, and the draft of course.

To quote Joe Paterno, "If you're not getting better, you're getting worse."

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

 

2020 team was pretty much the same cast of characters as the 2019 team. The 2020 team was much better than the 2019 team. Very rarely does the team that "wins" March do much of anything come September.

[HiAndTight]

Not sure this has been talked about in the thread but I've been thinking about this ever since Love was drafted. Did the Packers draft Love with the thought that if Rodgers keeps playing well, we can develop and trade Love? If Rodgers has another off year, we potentially have our next qb. A win win. People have made so much about this draft pick, and I always thought it might be a great trade chip. We lucked out when this happened with Matt Flynn. It seemed like we have tried to do it at other times as well. Other teams have had success with trading backups. Maybe this is all different because we moved up to get him. Also, the Packers would need him to play well in the preseason for the trade scenario to work out in our favor. So let's say Love has a really good preseason and Rodgers has another great season. What do you think the best move would be? What do you think Love would fetch? What do you think you could get for Rodgers?

 

I think the Packers just fell in love...with Love. It wasn't hard to find scouts who thought Love was a better prospect than Herbert last year, but his issue was that he was raw. I think they just thought he was too good to pass up. I would guess they had a general plan of letting Love sit for a few years and then just see how it plays out.

 

So I'd be surprised if their plans were too specific. Probably just pick him, develop him and hope for the best.

 

If Love was really impressive in the pre-season and looked as though he'd developed, I think you could get a 1st in return for him. Provided it was a team that was high on him last year.

 

I think Herbert's success and Love looking good in limited action could mean a team like the Steelers, Colts or another team that's talented but needs a QB could give up a 1st to get him.

 

We've only gotten a couple updates of any kind on him thus far. We got the impression he was struggling last pre-season, not letting the ball rip, aiming it too much. Then we heard the offensive coaches talking about how he looked night and day different from the start of the season to the end of the season.

 

 

At the end of the day, I'll trust the Packers and hope for the best, but we're talking about a guy who played 3 years at Utah State and while he had enormous upside, he was raw and didn't get a chance to take any live reps last year. So as much as I like him...I just can't wrap my head around hoping he develops when you know what you have in Rodgers and in my opinion, not much reason to expect him to drop off over the next several years.

 

You can try it out with Love and get a bunch of picks for Rodgers, but that's an enormous risk that could lead to the Packers spending the next decade as a middling team or worse if Love doesn't hit. GB isn't a FA destination. It's been more of one when we've had HOF QB's, but even then guys like Woodson did not want to come here.

 

So if they go that route, I hope they're damn sure Love is as good as they'll need him to be.

[HiAndTight]

Now QBs are ready early, and the way contracts work, they are cheap when they are young.

 

I don't think QBs are any different now compared to before - nearly everyone takes some level of development.

 

I think you're right...but I also think it appears as though QB's are ready earlier now as the rules have become so much more favorable to the offense and to protecting the QB.

 

If Mahomes or Herbert or most young QB's had to take the beatings that Troy Aikman did as a Rookie, the way the Eagles defense just beat the hell out of him, the way QB's were hit and not protected, that may have ruined many of them.

 

Steve Young for example...his athletic ability and accuracy, I doubt he'd need to move to another team and then sit for a few years. He'd likely come out of the gate pretty strong.

 

Plus, most of the QB's who've had success early in their careers recently have been mobile. If you can find a way to get 1st downs even if you make a mistake reading a defense or you miss your first read. So the types of QB's, the way the game is played has probably led to more QB's having success earlier than they did in the 70's, 80's and 90's.

 

 

I don’t see how Love’s value increased after a year.

 

It almost certainly hasn't increased. But he was a 1st round pick just last year. It's possible after seeing how Herbert and Burrow played, it's possible that some teams would still be willing to trade him for one. We see how desperate teams are for QB's. The Bears for example. IF we'd be willing to trade our young QB to them, maybe they'd give up a 1st.

 

But as others have pointed out, there's no need to at this point. He has 4 years left and it's hardly a pressing matter.

 

That said, hypothetically, I wonder what the Packers would say if someone offered a pick in the mid to late teens. Washington, Indy, NE(Teams that were rumored to be high on him last year). I know what most fans here would want...we'd all trade him in a second, but would the Packers? My guess is LaFleur wouldn't want to, but it's hard to envision them passing.

It's not gonna happen, so it doesn't matter, just throwing it out there.

[HiAndTight]

So basically we still have the same team except Linsley and Williams are gone. Looks to me like we've gotten worse in the last two months.

 

Good thing the offseason isn't over. And I'd expect Dillon/Williams to wash in 2021.

 

 

I think Dillon should be a pretty significant upgrade over Williams. Williams was a high energy, high effort guy. He wasn't unique or special.

 

Dillon is definitely unique, and I think he'll be pretty special. This is a 250 pound guy who is actually faster than Aaron Jones and we saw the type of vision and balance he had last year, albeit in limited sample sizes.

 

 

But setting that aside, we'll be worse on the OL most likely.

 

But we do have a lot of talented young players on the verge of breaking out. Savage, Gary, Keke Dillon,Tonyan our MLB'ers(Martin, Barnes and Summers). And I'm not sure who the players are that we should expect to regress? It's not like we had a Peppers type player who had a career year at 34 last year or something. Preston Smith had a down year, Z was good but not as good as the year before.

 

And while I wouldn't be counting on it, EQ and MVS still have a lot of upside.

 

 

The Packers haven't made the moves I'd wanted them to in order to really go all in, but I don't see how they are getting worse. And that Joe Paterno quote...doesn't really apply to signing Free Agents. It's about developing young players. That's pretty much exactly what the Packers are counting on. Sternberger, Deguara, Runyan, Nijman, Stepiank, Hanson...there are a dozen guys who've done nothing yet that could contribute next year. Vernon Scott will almost certainly be a big part of the rotation.

 

There's just no reason to look at the Packers and think we'll see a regression next year. It could happen...there were plenty of reasons to expect one heading into last year, but they're bringing back pretty much every player, they're young in many area's like their secondary and we got rid of that anchor that is Mike Pettine.

 

Continuity is pretty important in the NFL and I would expect the Packers to be aggressive in the draft, and I would still expect them to add a player or two by cap who could help out.

[CheezWizHed]

Well, given how well Rodgers played last year, it is possible that he could regress. Hard to see him playing better. Adams has pretty much peaked also. Not saying I think either one will have a huge step-back, but it is hard to see them go up.

 

But as HAT mentioned, there are a lot of players improving, including a number coming back from injury. I have a feeling the Barnes and Martin at MLB are going to be a big step-up difference this year. Second year jump at a glue position on the defense.

 

Thus if anything (just looking at it now), I could see some regression on offense and progression on defense. New talent at OL and WR would help mitigate any regressions/FA defections, while depth/starter competition at CB/DL would help the defense.

[nodakfan17]

Interesting Tweet:

 

The Packers only have 29 players under contract for 2022 and are already $4 million over the estimated $200 million 2022 salary cap.

 

[FVBrewerFan]

Interesting Tweet:

 

The Packers only have 29 players under contract for 2022 and are already $4 million over the estimated $200 million 2022 salary cap.

 

 

It is interesting, but $88MM of the cap is for Rodgers and the 2 Smiths, none of which will be on the roster anywhere close to that.

[GAME05]

Don't worry, 2/3rds of them won't be on the roster after next season.

[HiAndTight]

Interesting Tweet:

 

The Packers only have 29 players under contract for 2022 and are already $4 million over the estimated $200 million 2022 salary cap.

 

 

It is interesting, but $88MM of the cap is for Rodgers and the 2 Smiths, none of which will be on the roster anywhere close to that.

 

 

Rodgers could play out one more year with his cap hit staying the same next year....but there is virtually no shot either Smith will play for anything close to their current numbers. But I don't think either of them actually believe they will either. It was a given that the restructuring the Packers did with these guys was done with the knowledge that these guys would either sign extensions...or they'd be cut. Not that two 30 year old OLB'ers will eat up 50 million on cap space.

 

I'm not a big fan of Ingalls. I feel like he tries to sensationalize these numbers to get fans all worked up. On the Acme site, there are a couple of posters over there who keep repeating that the Packers are 45 million over the 2022 Salary cap and they'll have to let Alexander and Adams walk and just all this nonsense that fans who understand the cap know is totally unrealistic. And Ingalls also assumes a 200 million dollar salary cap. Given that they kept the cap down to 181 this year...it seems like pretty much everyone knows the Cap is going to be at least 220. Which will still mean the Packers will have to make some difficult decisions, but we ALL know they're not really 45 million over next years cap.

 

There were posters who were asking if the Packers would be forced to cut Rodgers as a result of Ingalls different tweets. That's how nonsensical the responses to his tweets get and kinda proof he's not really trying to educate people about the cap, he's throwing out totally unrealistic numbers and adding absolutely zero context to those numbers.

[nodakfan17]

I’m a big Packers / Rodgers fan and I’d love to see him retire now and host Jeopardy full time. It might not be a second Super Bowl, but that just seems like a fitting end for him. No bitter divorce - just ‘Hey, it’s time for me to go do something new. Good luck to you all.’