Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm bullish on how long Rodgers can play at a very high level, whether it's here or somewhere else. There has been little, if any, decline in his raw athletic skills. He's had no serious injuries that jeopardize longevity either (broken bones don't do that). He still runs very well. He's strict about diet and keeps in very good shape. I think he's more Brady than Manning or Brees. I think if he wants to, he'll be playing somewhere into his 40s.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm bullish on how long Rodgers can play at a very high level, whether it's here or somewhere else. There has been little, if any, decline in his raw athletic skills. He's had no serious injuries that jeopardize longevity either (broken bones don't do that). He still runs very well. He's strict about diet and keeps in very good shape. I think he's more Brady than Manning or Brees. I think if he wants to, he'll be playing somewhere into his 40s.

 

Manning wasn't Manning until Manning was Manning.

[PeaveyFury]

We both want the same things for this team, but have some differences of opinion on how to accomplish it.

 

I think the issue is that people are struggling to accept the fact that the team is keeping all options open, including moving on. Which from an organizational standpoint is wise, but from a fanbase standpoint hurts. The writing was on the wall last year, and I think people may have falsely convinced themselves that the outcome would/could be different, but it's probably not going to be.

 

In the end, Rodgers will either make their choice incredibly hard, or incredibly easy, IMO. But this week they chose to keep both paths open, and that's hard to swallow for some.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm bullish on how long Rodgers can play at a very high level, whether it's here or somewhere else. There has been little, if any, decline in his raw athletic skills. He's had no serious injuries that jeopardize longevity either (broken bones don't do that). He still runs very well. He's strict about diet and keeps in very good shape. I think he's more Brady than Manning or Brees. I think if he wants to, he'll be playing somewhere into his 40s.

 

Manning wasn't Manning until Manning was Manning.

 

Not true. Peyton Manning had 4 nerve surgeries by 2011. He'd lost feeling in his fingertips before his play started to decline. The stiff that couldn't turn his neck by the end of his career was not a sudden thing. It was a broken body finally catching up to him. That it took that long is a miracle in itself. Rodgers has nothing close to that level of back, neck and surgical problems.

[pacopete4]

I just hate the misconception that the Packers are not surrounding Rodgers with talent. It's just so wrong in my opinion and I don't think this team has fallen short of winning another Super Bowl because of it. Unfortunately, there are many factors that lead to winning it all. They've been on the wrong side of that for various reasons but I don't think the talent was/is the issue.

 

I do agree with PeaveyFury that there are many in the fanbase that are and will struggle that the Packers organization is going to look toward the future as well as the present. It will bother fans that they don't take the cap suicide pill that many want them to. I just don't see this front office doing that.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm bullish on how long Rodgers can play at a very high level, whether it's here or somewhere else. There has been little, if any, decline in his raw athletic skills. He's had no serious injuries that jeopardize longevity either (broken bones don't do that). He still runs very well. He's strict about diet and keeps in very good shape. I think he's more Brady than Manning or Brees. I think if he wants to, he'll be playing somewhere into his 40s.

 

Manning wasn't Manning until Manning was Manning.

 

Not true. Peyton Manning had 4 nerve surgeries by 2011. He'd lost feeling in his fingertips before his play started to decline. The stiff that couldn't turn his neck by the end of his career was not a sudden thing. It was a broken body finally catching up to him. That it took that long is a miracle in itself. Rodgers has nothing close to that level of back, neck and surgical problems.

 

Rodgers has had his leg/calf cleaned up what, 2/3 times now? And missed time due to injury in more seasons overall than Manning did? Rodgers is another broken collarbone away from making the Packers' decision very easy, IMO.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I just hate the misconception that the Packers are not surrounding Rodgers with talent. It's just so wrong in my opinion and I don't think this team has fallen short of winning another Super Bowl because of it. Unfortunately, there are many factors that lead to winning it all. They've been on the wrong side of that for various reasons but I don't think the talent was/is the issue.

 

I do agree with PeaveyFury that there are many in the fanbase that are and will struggle that the Packers organization is going to look toward the future as well as the present. It will bother fans that they don't take the cap suicide pill that many want them to. I just don't see this front office doing that.

 

I don't think it's been the problem at all aside from really 2012-2013, even that is hard to say because not many GMs would change a whole lot from a 15-1 team. The defense from 2011-2013 was pretty bad and they mostly sat on their hands. Capers seemed to have a job way too long. That's probably the single most maddening thing to me. Other than that I just don't see it. They've had a lot of good players.

 

Nobody ever likes to admit this, but just bad luck has played a large role. The losses in 2014 and last year were seasons they easily could have won Super Bowls, were good enough to do so, and this conversation doesn't exist if they do. When you look at it that way it becomes much harder to blame the FO.

[PeaveyFury]

I just hate the misconception that the Packers are not surrounding Rodgers with talent. It's just so wrong in my opinion and I don't think this team has fallen short of winning another Super Bowl because of it. Unfortunately, there are many factors that lead to winning it all. They've been on the wrong side of that for various reasons but I don't think the talent was/is the issue.

 

I do agree with PeaveyFury that there are many in the fanbase that are and will struggle that the Packers organization is going to look toward the future as well as the present. It will bother fans that they don't take the cap suicide pill that many want them to. I just don't see this front office doing that.

 

Funny thing is, if this board archive went back to 2005, there'd be a solid thread documenting the outrage over the Packers' having to deal with their years of pushing the cap hit out further and further until they couldn't anymore.....

[GAME05]

If Love were an average QB but we suddenly had another $30M to spend on other players along with another draft pick or two, wouldn't we have about the same chances of winning the SB as we do now?

 

If Rodgers has a couple good seasons as a member of the Colts...so what? Favre had one good season with the Vikings but I don't think we were any worse off for it.

[PeaveyFury]

The defense from 2011-2013 was pretty bad and they mostly sat on their hands.

 

Even that's a bit harsh- the 2012 draft was literally all defensive players, save for their two 7th rounders, and that was the first of 8 consecutive years where their first pick was a defender.

[PeaveyFury]

If Love were an average QB but we suddenly had another $30M to spend on other players along with another draft pick or two, wouldn't we have about the same chances of winning the SB as we do now?

 

Bingo.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

 

Rodgers has had his leg/calf cleaned up what, 2/3 times now? And missed time due to injury in more seasons overall than Manning did? Rodgers is another broken collarbone away from making the Packers' decision very easy, IMO.

 

Missed time is totally irrelevant to what we are discussing. You physically can't play QB with a broken collarbone, but it heals and doesn't cause pain 6 years later. Rodgers broke bones in season and missed time. You can play crappy football with nerve damage, can have surgery to ease the pain on a herniated disc, but if you go play football again 6 months later it's going to hurt, it's just a matter of time. There's a huge difference between scopes to clean up things that basically pro athletes have done, and having 5 disc surgeries to ease nerve damage, or surgery to address a nagging torn labrum. Those kinds of injuries will almost always shorten a career or eventually lead to a decline in play, because they always come back.

 

Nobody was surprised by Manning falling apart the way he did. His body was in a far worse condition at 35 after multiple nerve surgeries than Rodgers is in today. All QBs are susceptible to one big injury at all times, but Rodgers has avoided the kinds of serious injuries that would most definitely shorten his career or cause him serious discomfort later in life (by ex-football player standards anyway). Manning's effectiveness after serious injury is just a testament to how good he was and how much the non-physical parts of the game were a part of his repertoire. That allowed to still be good well after his physical tools began to erode.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Rodgers has had his leg/calf cleaned up what, 2/3 times now? And missed time due to injury in more seasons overall than Manning did? Rodgers is another broken collarbone away from making the Packers' decision very easy, IMO.

 

Missed time is totally irrelevant to what we are discussing. You physically can't play QB with a broken collarbone, but it heals and doesn't cause pain 6 years later. Rodgers broke bones in season and missed time. You can play crappy football with nerve damage, can have surgery to ease the pain on a herniated disc, but if you go play football again 6 months later it's going to hurt, it's just a matter of time. There's a huge difference between scopes to clean up things that basically pro athletes have done, and having 5 disc surgeries to ease nerve damage, or surgery to address a nagging torn labrum. Those kinds of injuries will almost always shorten a career or eventually lead to a decline in play, because they always come back.

 

Nobody was surprised by Manning falling apart the way he did. His body was in a far worse condition at 35 after multiple nerve surgeries than Rodgers is in today. All QBs are susceptible to one big injury at all times, but Rodgers has avoided the kinds of serious injuries that would most definitely shorten his career or cause him serious discomfort later in life (by ex-football player standards anyway). Manning's effectiveness after serious injury is just a testament to how good he was and how much the non-physical parts of the game were a part of his repertoire. That allowed to still be good well after his physical tools began to erode.

 

Ok, now list all of the major degenerative injuries that Brees had prior to not being able to throw the ball 20 yards downfield this year? You're hyper-focused on one example when there are literally dozens of others that prove contrary to your viewpoint.

[adambr2]

If Love were an average QB but we suddenly had another $30M to spend on other players along with another draft pick or two, wouldn't we have about the same chances of winning the SB as we do now?

 

Bingo.

 

No, we would have a much worse chance. We'd be the Vikings. You don't just go from an elite QB to an average QB with more money to throw at the rest of the team and still end up in the same situation.

[PeaveyFury]

If Love were an average QB but we suddenly had another $30M to spend on other players along with another draft pick or two, wouldn't we have about the same chances of winning the SB as we do now?

 

Bingo.

 

No, we would have a much worse chance. We'd be the Vikings. You don't just go from an elite QB to an average QB with more money to throw at the rest of the team and still end up in the same situation.

 

What if the elite QB is no longer elite? Or alternately, what if the average QB isn't just average?

 

Also, the Vikings have literally never in the past several season spent cheaply on QB to improve the rest of the team. They've been paying tens of millions to guys like Cousins and Bradford.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

 

Ok, now list all of the major degenerative injuries that Brees had prior to not being able to throw the ball 20 yards downfield this year? You're hyper-focused on one example when there are literally dozens of others that prove contrary to your viewpoint.

 

Do you remember what happened to Drew Brees in San Diego? There are dozens? Would you like to list them?

 

This is such a weird thing to me that you're objecting to.

 

Spinal fusion and broken collarbones and calf scopes aren't in the same strata.

[adambr2]

I guess I'm not sure where the hypotheticals would come into play here. If Rodgers declines to the point where it isn't viable to build around him then you have to think about moving on to the next QB at that point.

 

And if Love isn't just average, well, that's the hope. But you're still almost assuredly not doing anything in his first season which would be the opportunity to eat some dead money and have a short-term rebuild IMO.

[PeaveyFury]

Do you remember what happened to Drew Brees in San Diego?

 

Do you remember the 14 HOF-caliber seasons he had in New Orleans after that surgery? Do you remember the sudden, rapid decline in his play in the 15th year?

[PeaveyFury]

If Rodgers declines to the point where it isn't viable to build around him then you have to think about moving on to the next QB at that point.

 

You realize that is LITERALLY the situation the Packers are hedging against right now, right?

 

But you're still almost assuredly not doing anything in his first season which would be the opportunity to eat some dead money and have a short-term rebuild IMO.

 

Have you actually looked back at Wilson's first two years in Seattle when the went to two Super Bowls on his rookie contract? Extraordinarily average. ~3200 yards, 26TDs, 10 INTS. Virtually identical stat lines in both years, and nearly the definition of average. If you can surround that stat line with a team that is very good everywhere else, you can win.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Do you remember what happened to Drew Brees in San Diego?

 

Do you remember the 14 HOF-caliber seasons he had in New Orleans after that surgery?

 

Do you remember his scouting report? He never had a great arm. And his shoulder was a problem throughout his career so I don't know you went with him. Why do you think I was mentioning the torn labrum before? That's him.

 

There are dozens of QBs that have spinal fusion surgery that retire without it coming back? Or dozens of players that had their careers ruined by broken collarbones?

 

I don't get what the point is. Rodgers has had nothing like the injuries that plagued either Brees or Manning. That's what you objected to and claimed "Manning wasn't Manning until Manning was Manning," which just wasn't true. His back and neck problems were staggering and something people were very aware of.

[homer]

If Rodgers declines to the point where it isn't viable to build around him then you have to think about moving on to the next QB at that point.

 

You realize that is LITERALLY the situation the Packers are hedging against right now, right?

 

But you're still almost assuredly not doing anything in his first season which would be the opportunity to eat some dead money and have a short-term rebuild IMO.

 

Have you actually looked back at Wilson's first two years in Seattle when the went to two Super Bowls on his rookie contract? Extraordinarily average. ~3200 yards, 26TDs, 10 INTS. Virtually identical stat lines in both years, and nearly the definition of average. If you can surround that stat line with a team that is very good everywhere else, you can win.

 

If the Packers could assemble a Legion of Doom they'd never lose.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If we want to talk about disappointments, look at Seattle. From 2012-2015 they are the #1 ranked defense for four seasons. #3 in 2016. One championship. Wilson has somehow come out of that clean and is the victim of poor management.

[adambr2]

If Rodgers declines to the point where it isn't viable to build around him then you have to think about moving on to the next QB at that point.

 

You realize that is LITERALLY the situation the Packers are hedging against right now, right?

 

And I'm really not sure why because it's holding them back right now and not really going to help them much later because they're still going to take their lumps in Love's first year.

 

But you're still almost assuredly not doing anything in his first season which would be the opportunity to eat some dead money and have a short-term rebuild IMO.

 

Have you actually looked back at Wilson's first two years in Seattle when the went to two Super Bowls on his rookie contract? Extraordinarily average. ~3200 yards, 26TDs, 10 INTS. Virtually identical stat lines in both years, and nearly the definition of average. If you can surround that stat line with a team that is very good everywhere else, you can win.

 

Calling those average seasons by Wilson is really misleading; he also had a QB rating of 100 and rushed for 500 yards each of those years; he was near top of the league both years in both QBR and regular QB rating. He didn't have flashy passing statistics because that's not how the offense was designed, it was a ground and pound offense which was supported by one of the best defenses of that era. If we have the ability to suddenly surround Love with the Legion of Boom we should have done that sometime over the last 10 years.

[PeaveyFury]

I don't get what the point is. Rodgers has had nothing like the injuries that plagued either Brees or Manning. That's what you objected to and claimed "Manning wasn't Manning until Manning was Manning," which just wasn't true. His back and neck problems were staggering and something people were very aware of.

 

If your point is that Manning's sudden, complete dropoff was more predictable due to his health history, that's a fair enough point. But my larger point is that guys like Manning, Brees, even Favre clip along at a high level, then suddenly the wheels fall off. Maybe it won't be as sudden for Rodgers. Or maybe it will be. The point is that the Packers are keeping a second option open in the event that he makes the choice easy for them, as I mentioned several posts ago.

[CheezWizHed]

A team with an average QB rarely wins the SB. A team with an average QB on a rookie contract rarely, rarely wins the SB. For the last 20 years, 80+% of the time, you needed a HOF level QB to win the SB. The other 20% were older vets that were good game managers. I didn't break down how many non-HOF-level QBs (by my estimation of them getting to the HOF) were on their rookie contract, but there were very few if any.

 

Not that it can't be done, but I'm going with probabilities. Get a HOF level QB and deal with the talent around him. I'll stick with Rodgers until he shows he can't. He had two poor years (2018/2019) followed by a VERY good year in 2020. What will 2021 or 2022 bring? I'm not sure, but I'd prefer my chances with him until it is clear he can't play at a high level anymore.

 

EDIT: I had to fact check myself. The spit isn't 80/20, but 70/30. And only 1 time in the last 20 years has a non-HOF level QB won the SB on a rookie contract: Flacco.

 

From 2000-2021 (I can count this year since neither QB this year is on a rookie contract), the SB winning QB is on a rookie contract 31.8% (7 of 22) of the time. The SB losing QB is on a rookie contract 22.7% (5 of 22) of the time (or 27.3% combined).

 

6 of the 7 SB winning QBs are probably future HOF QBs (Brady 2x, Rothlisberger, Wilson, E Manning, Mahomes) with Flacco as the other. Of the 5 SB losing QBs, you have Wilson as future HOF probable with McNair, Grossman, Kapernick, and Goff.

 

Best way to win a SB is to have a HOF level QB on a rookie contract. The second best way is to have a HOF level QB.