Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[HiAndTight]

Peterson has really, really declined the past two seasons, particularly in his coverage grades. I'm really worried about cost vs. name with him, though I guess if that's an issue the Packers just won't be involved....

 

 

I've been a big PPat fan for a long time...but I don't think that's the move. I see some similarities with him and C-Wood, but Woodson was struggling due to health, and he was at odds with the organization.

 

As you said, Peterson just hasn't been good the last two years. Maybe some of that is the pressure of being the #1 option and maybe he could thrive as our #2, but I would think if AZ doesn't pay him, that's probably pretty telling given they just paid Watt quite a bit and they have a lot of young talent on that team with Budda, Simmons, Jones...etc..

 

 

As popular as this may be and as beloved as King is...I think bringing him back might be the best option next year. Provided he is cheap. If they could swing that and then a Troy Hill signing, I'd be pretty happy going into the draft.

Edited March 16, 2021 by HiAndTight

[LouisEly]

I am okay with bringing back Aaron Jones because it seems like we got a pretty good deal. Had we paid market price or gotten into a bidding war...no thanks.

 

However, it is frustrating that the top two picks we had last year did very little their first year and even this year both will have minimal impact. Not to say Dillon won't play a bigger role, but a 2nd round RB should be a real good starter...not a 2nd stringer. Of course it is easy to go into the past and look at who they could have drafted. Reality is their second option at each pick might have been an even worse player in the end. Of course at least we did something useful for Rodgers to help keep an elite offense intact.

Remember, Dillon (like all rookies) had minimal camp and was also out for a long time with COVID and lingering symptoms during the season. We don't know what he would have done had he been healthy the whole season and/or had normal mini/training camps. Hard to be a major contributor as a rookie on this team - especially trusted with pass-protecting Rodgers - without much for mini/training camps.

[HiAndTight]

I am okay with bringing back Aaron Jones because it seems like we got a pretty good deal. Had we paid market price or gotten into a bidding war...no thanks.

 

However, it is frustrating that the top two picks we had last year did very little their first year and even this year both will have minimal impact. Not to say Dillon won't play a bigger role, but a 2nd round RB should be a real good starter...not a 2nd stringer. Of course it is easy to go into the past and look at who they could have drafted. Reality is their second option at each pick might have been an even worse player in the end. Of course at least we did something useful for Rodgers to help keep an elite offense intact.

Remember, Dillon (like all rookies) had minimal camp and was also out for a long time with COVID and lingering symptoms during the season. We don't know what he would have done had he been healthy the whole season and/or had normal mini/training camps. Hard to be a major contributor as a rookie on this team - especially trusted with pass-protecting Rodgers - without much for mini/training camps.

 

 

That is one area we're really gonna miss Jamaal Williams. He was a stud at picking up those free runners.

 

But I think too much is put on the "He's only a 2nd stringer." I would expect Dillon to get ~150 carries this year. He'll very likely be the back closing out games. And I think he and Jones will be on the field together at times.

 

I was a bigger fan of Gibson at the time...though I didn't expect a RB to be taken at all, but now that we have Jones locked up, I think it makes the move make more sense in retrospect, not less. But I understand why others would disagree.

 

I also think had we taken anyone other than a QB with our first pick, people would also judge the Dillon selection far less harshly.

[homer]

The Packers play Andy Dalton, Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins six times next season

[pacopete4]

Sounds like another 13 win season is in order.

[PinaMadness]

Packers are non tendering Lancaster. Maybe we'll go undefeated.

[PeaveyFury]

Packers are non tendering Lancaster. Maybe we'll go undefeated.

 

Not shocking, as even with fiscal limitations an upgrade should be attainable....

[adambr2]

Would people feel differently about the Jones extension if it had been for clear top dollar -- say 4/60 with 30M guarantee?

[PeaveyFury]

Jamaal Williams to Detroit, 2/$7.5 million

 

[adambr2]

Jamaal Williams to Detroit, 2/$7.5 million

 

 

I figured 3/9M for Williams so kind of close.

 

I'll miss him here. If we hadn't signed Jones I'd take Williams back on that deal.

[HiAndTight]

Would people feel differently about the Jones extension if it had been for clear top dollar -- say 4/60 with 30M guarantee?

 

Of course. That's closer to what I thought he'd get once he got to free agency.

[PeaveyFury]

Early math by people who understand the comp pick formula better than me suggests that the Williams deal isn’t significant enough to land a comp pick, sadly.

[pacopete4]

To me, Williams was just a guy. He fit the scheme we had but never really had the explosiveness to be "the guy". I wish him well but it is a no-brainer between him and Jones as to who helps an offense more. I actually think a lot of people are/have underrated Jones as to how good he really is in our offense. And I'm not just talking on here.

[stoutdude04]

To me, Williams was just a guy. He fit the scheme we had but never really had the explosiveness to be "the guy". I wish him well but it is a no-brainer between him and Jones as to who helps an offense more. I actually think a lot of people are/have underrated Jones as to how good he really is in our offense. And I'm not just talking on here.

 

I think this is exactly right. I saw a break down of nearly identical plays and the holes Jones saw compared to Williams was pretty wild.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Early math by people who understand the comp pick formula better than me suggests that the Williams deal isn’t significant enough to land a comp pick, sadly.

 

According to Nick Korte, who has been a guru when it comes to figuring out this formula, the Packers should garner a 6th round selection from Williams leaving. That's sort of a bummer, as I was hoping that Williams would garner more interest to perhaps get a 5th in compensation.

 

I would expect some team will see enough upside in Kevin King to get the Packers a comp pick (likely 5th or 6th round). The only other FAs I could see getting anything more than a minimum-type 1-year deal are Will Redmond and Montravius Adams, but I doubt the deals would be big enough to get anything compensation-wise.

[PeaveyFury]

Early math by people who understand the comp pick formula better than me suggests that the Williams deal isn’t significant enough to land a comp pick, sadly.

 

According to Nick Korte, who has been a guru when it comes to figuring out this formula, the Packers should garner a 6th round selection from Williams leaving. That's sort of a bummer, as I was hoping that Williams would garner more interest to perhaps get a 5th in compensation.

 

I would expect some team will see enough upside in Kevin King to get the Packers a comp pick (likely 5th or 6th round). The only other FAs I could see getting anything more than a minimum-type 1-year deal are Will Redmond and Montravius Adams, but I doubt the deals would be big enough to get anything compensation-wise.

 

Yep, I saw the same thing elsewhere on the 6. No idea how one expert can claim nothing, and another a 6.

 

The good news about a 6 is that it gives you the ability to sign one UFA and only lose that rather than the faaaaar more valuable 4th from Linsley....

[PeaveyFury]

Quiet morning and first two days of free agency for the Packers, but there has to be news soon. The RFA tenders and Jones have them several million over the cap, so some moves literally HAVE to happen shortly.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

 

Z Smith restructured contract to create space for Aaron Jones.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Z Smith restructured contract to create space for Aaron Jones.

 

One of the easy moves. Curious if it's a straight restructure or if it includes an extension.

[PeaveyFury]

Answering my own question, it's a straight restructure that frees up $7.38m.

 

EDIT: As a result, Z now has an insane cap number of nearly $30million for next year, which the Packers obviously won't pay. I think an extension is a lock, but I wonder if they couldn't get the deal done prior to today's cap deadline?

 

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) Tweeted:

#Packers RB Aaron Jones' four-year, $48 million deal includes $20M over first two years -- a little over the cost of two franchise tags.

 

A $7 million roster bonus is due on 3rd day of 2023 league year. So, that'll be decision time. He's due $16M in 2023 and $12M in 2024.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) Tweeted:

#Packers RB Aaron Jones' four-year, $48 million deal includes $20M over first two years -- a little over the cost of two franchise tags.

 

A $7 million roster bonus is due on 3rd day of 2023 league year. So, that'll be decision time. He's due $16M in 2023 and $12M in 2024.

 

A 2021 cap hit of $4,475,000, and a 2022 cap hit of $9,000,000. Russ Ball is extremely good at his job.

[PeaveyFury]

Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) Tweeted:

#Packers RB Aaron Jones' four-year, $48 million deal includes $20M over first two years -- a little over the cost of two franchise tags.

 

A $7 million roster bonus is due on 3rd day of 2023 league year. So, that'll be decision time. He's due $16M in 2023 and $12M in 2024.

 

A 2021 cap hit of $4,475,000, and a 2022 cap hit of $9,000,000. Russ Ball is extremely good at his job.

 

Good, good stuff. Doesn't crunch the cap in either of the next two years, and basically made this a 2-year deal as some thought.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) Tweeted:

#Packers RB Aaron Jones' four-year, $48 million deal includes $20M over first two years -- a little over the cost of two franchise tags.

 

A $7 million roster bonus is due on 3rd day of 2023 league year. So, that'll be decision time. He's due $16M in 2023 and $12M in 2024.

 

A 2021 cap hit of $4,475,000, and a 2022 cap hit of $9,000,000. Russ Ball is extremely good at his job.

 

Good, good stuff. Doesn't crunch the cap in either of the next two years, and basically made this a 2-year deal as some thought.

 

What this does is create flexibility for the Packers to make additional moves this offseason in what is going to be a pretty big buyers' market. Z. Smith's restructure gets them extremely close to, if not just under the cap, and they still have restructure/extension options with Davante and Rodgers that would enable them to clear a big portion of cap if they do pursue some of the "all-in" moves the fanbase is craving.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Answering my own question, it's a straight restructure that frees up $7.38m.

 

EDIT: As a result, Z now has an insane cap number of nearly $30million for next year, which the Packers obviously won't pay. I think an extension is a lock, but I wonder if they couldn't get the deal done prior to today's cap deadline?

 

 

Yes, this seems mostly like a 'get under the cap today without losing anyone else' sort of move while they keep sorting out extension options for key guys to get in a better situation to add more talent...I'd expect extensions in the coming weeks for Adams, Smith, and perhaps Rodgers to get the current roster comfortably under this year's cap to sign their draft picks and also pick up a couple free agents to fill roster needs in this flooded market.

 

There's also the chance the Packers FO looks at Rodgers' current big cap 2021 hit and sees an opportunity to try and get what they need done this year financially without restructuring him until this next offseason. If they restructure Z. Smith and Adams soon, they probably will wind up with enough cap room to get what they need done in 2021 to "go for it", then sort out the longer term cap implications by waiting until next winter to restructure Rodgers (assuming they want him around longterm) and give them more flexibility in their 2022 cap situation to extend Alexander, Tonyan, and Jenkins longterm.