Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[PinaMadness]

https://www.nfl.com/news/packers-gm-open-to-using-franchise-tag-on-rb-aaron-jones

[HiAndTight]

It is just too bad that the timing wasn't right on this for GB. It just would have been too cool to see a Wisconsin star find his way to the Packers. After seeing the monetary commitment, I am glad we didn't go that route because we can probably have more impact with multiple players being signed for that.

 

 

The timing was right...the Packers status and Watt's status, also both right. The fit was right.

 

I guess it just comes down to what the Packers offered. They could never have done the 2 years 31 million(I'm being hyperbolic, but it would have been very hard and would have required them to push away too much money down the road). The 4-5 year deal probably ends up paying Watt just as much, and I'd tend to believe the Packers made a competitive offer for Watt, but they wanted a longer contract and maybe less guaranteed.

 

Watt had a relationship with Vance Joseph and D-Hop.

 

Can't blame Gute for this. 2/31 was just pushing an already precarious salary cap situation too far.

[HiAndTight]

I knew someone would bring up the Tampa thing but it's just not the same. Brady is a QB. There's a huge opportunity for QBs to influence every single offensive snap. Especially when your predecessor turned the ball over 45 times. He's not a dumb guy. He knew if he was even decent there with those weapons, they would compete.

 

That said, AZ being really good next year wouldn't be stunning. That's a good, inconsistent team close to being a really good one. Surprising because I didn't even see a rumor about AZ, but it does make sense with some time to digest. I thought he'd go for a more established QB, though.

 

 

Yeah, I was going to mention the Buccs as well, but I understood the point he was making.

 

That said, the Buccs were 7-9 with a QB who averaged nearly 3 Turnovers a GAME in that 7-9 year. Their defense was very good(though not in PPG against as they gave up a lot after Winston's turnovers). In fact, I believe their defense was among the top-ranked according to DVOA in 2019 and they were the #1 defense over the last ~8 games that year.

 

Plus, they had two elite WR'ers, edge rushes...and a lot of core players in place.

 

 

I don't think AZ is primed to make any type of jump like that. They've got too many holes. And...as I said, I don't think Kyler Murray is that good. Defenses were starting to figure him out. Use a spy, stay in your lands and get your hands up. He had a big problem with batted balls last year.

[HiAndTight]

It is just too bad that the timing wasn't right on this for GB. It just would have been too cool to see a Wisconsin star find his way to the Packers. After seeing the monetary commitment, I am glad we didn't go that route because we can probably have more impact with multiple players being signed for that.

 

I guess we'll never really know whether it truly was timing & the Packers' cap or whether it was a true lack of legitimate interest (or, interest at FMV). Would a different year have allowed the Packers to potentially make a more competitive offer? Absolutely. Would they have? Who knows....

 

 

This is true. We don't really have enough insight into how Gutey operates to have a real idea of how he operates. And it was tough negotiating with Watt without knowing what the actual cap will be.

 

But this could open the door for several smaller moves. I'm thinking Shelby Harris, Curtis Samuel/Cordarrelle Patterson, and Ronald Darby. Three guys who should be relatively affordable. Harris has been an under-the-radar type guy for years. And you're also bringing a Wisconsin boy back home...and arguably one who was better last year. 3/24 12 million SB, 1 million base in year 1. ~5 million cap hit.

 

Samuel or Patterson can stretch the field can they can play the Tyler Ervin role and return kicks.

Samuel 3/18 ~4 cap hit.

Ronald Darby-He's better in man coverage fits the scheme(provided it's similar to last years scheme) and he should be cheap-ish.

 

With 10 draft picks, I'm guessing Gutey does what he has just about every year and moves up in the first round and try and find an OT. Darrisaw would be the ideal fit, but that's probably a stretch. But if he does fall to 20...it's certainly feasible.

 

 

This really sucks, but time to turn to the upside...which again, is the fact that there will be a lot of bargains available on the market this year. Shelby Harris, outside of JJ or Leonard Williams, might be one of the best fits for this defense, so onto Shelby watch!

[CheezWizHed]

So there is some rumors floating that the Packers are trying to trade P-Smith. He has a $4M roster bonus coming the third day of the NFL season, so that is probably the make/break point. For the incoming team, he would account for $12M in salary ($8M base + $4M bonus). For the Packers, they would save $8M on the cap.

 

So what would a $12M pass rusher be worth on the trade market? I wouldn't think much more than a 6th or 7th round pick. Maybe they can find the right player in return at a source of need (RT/DT/WR/CB)?

 

Either way, it sounds like P-Smith isn't going to stick around.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Devin Funchess has reportedly renegotiated his 2021 contract, offering the Packers a $750,000 break on their salary cap. He'll now earn $1.75 million if he makes the squad.

 

That has the chance of being a nice bargain for the Packers. By the looks of Funchess's Instagram, he's managed to keep himself in incredible shape, and has definitely been hitting the weight room. He's a big, strong dude. Perhaps he's a darkhorse 2021 offensive contributor. The issue is that his skillset is somewhat redundant with Lazard and St. Brown already on the roster.

[PeaveyFury]

So there is some rumors floating that the Packers are trying to trade P-Smith. He has a $4M roster bonus coming the third day of the NFL season, so that is probably the make/break point. For the incoming team, he would account for $12M in salary ($8M base + $4M bonus). For the Packers, they would save $8M on the cap.

 

So what would a $12M pass rusher be worth on the trade market? I wouldn't think much more than a 6th or 7th round pick. Maybe they can find the right player in return at a source of need (RT/DT/WR/CB)?

 

Either way, it sounds like P-Smith isn't going to stick around.

 

As his contract is one of the big items that would help their cap situation, it's not surprising that the current rumors surround him. I think he's still a productive player that was horribly misused at the start of last season at least, so I was hoping for a restructure. Wouldn't be shocked if they have to do the trade route, as it would literally save them $8mil.

[CheezWizHed]

Devin Funchess has reportedly renegotiated his 2021 contract, offering the Packers a $750,000 break on their salary cap. He'll now earn $1.75 million if he makes the squad.

 

That has the chance of being a nice bargain for the Packers. By the looks of Funchess's Instagram, he's managed to keep himself in incredible shape, and has definitely been hitting the weight room. He's a big, strong dude. Perhaps he's a darkhorse 2021 offensive contributor. The issue is that his skillset is somewhat redundant with Lazard and St. Brown already on the roster.

 

Does anyone have an idea of Funchess' preferred route tree or particular skillset? As I wrote in the draft thread, MVS needs time to run his routes (deep go routes, longer crossing routes). Lazard has more ability to turn a 5 yard pass out into a bit more (mainly by his size), but still doesn't beat people with his hands/feet off the line very often and I don't recall him running slants often.

 

What I'm describing is obviously Adams. But our offense's kryptonite is a team with a good pass rush and a plan to stop Adams. Tampa "simply" doubled Adams and took their chances with the rest of our WR/TEs because nearly all of them take time to get into their routes.

 

So it really doesn't matter if Funchess doesn't have the speed (which he doesn't) if he can consistently get himself open by footwork, route running, or hands at LOS.

[pacopete4]

Devin Funchess has reportedly renegotiated his 2021 contract, offering the Packers a $750,000 break on their salary cap. He'll now earn $1.75 million if he makes the squad.

 

That has the chance of being a nice bargain for the Packers. By the looks of Funchess's Instagram, he's managed to keep himself in incredible shape, and has definitely been hitting the weight room. He's a big, strong dude. Perhaps he's a darkhorse 2021 offensive contributor. The issue is that his skillset is somewhat redundant with Lazard and St. Brown already on the roster.

 

But he's not a 1st round draft choice. Pass...

[GAME05]

Apologies if I've said this before, but what I've read about Funchess is that you can separate out what is a typical WR1 route from a typical Slot route. On his Jordy Nelson routes, where Carolina wanted to use him after drafting him so high, his completion percentage and catch radius was terrible not helped by his lack of speed. But on his Slot routes he fared much better, with a really good radius and completion percentage. It's likely Indianapolis figured this out and was going to use him differently, but then he got hurt. I don't know how good he is at blocking (though for WRs I see that as more a matter of effort than skill), but I envision GB using him more as a Slot or Heavy Slot kinda possession guy who is up the middle a lot to play against Strong Safeties and generally getting the 7-yard passes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Apologies if I've said this before, but what I've read about Funchess is that you can separate out what is a typical WR1 route from a typical Slot route. On his Jordy Nelson routes, where Carolina wanted to use him after drafting him so high, his completion percentage and catch radius was terrible not helped by his lack of speed. But on his Slot routes he fared much better, with a really good radius and completion percentage. It's likely Indianapolis figured this out and was going to use him differently, but then he got hurt. I don't know how good he is at blocking (though for WRs I see that as more a matter of effort than skill), but I envision GB using him more as a Slot or Heavy Slot kinda possession guy who is up the middle a lot to play against Strong Safeties and generally getting the 7-yard passes.

 

Basically what Jimmy Graham was supposed to be.

[patrickgpe]

Aaron jones was not franchised. I'm OK with this. I would be shocked if the packers signed him as well. I do hope they can resign Williams and would have a nice dynamic will Dillon and a change of pace back in Jamal Williams.

[HiAndTight]

Aaron jones was not franchised. I'm OK with this. I would be shocked if the packers signed him as well. I do hope they can resign Williams and would have a nice dynamic will Dillon and a change of pace back in Jamal Williams.

 

I don't get it. They were willing to make him one of the highest-paid backs in the NFL...he turned it down. But they refused to put a tag on him?

 

As for Williams, I don't really see him as a change of pace type back. He's a hard runner and he hits the hole and doesn't really spend much time going East to West, but he doesn't really have a different running style than Dillon. He's just not nearly as big or as physical. He's more of a James Starks. A fine complement to Dillon as Starks was to Lacy, but Jones adds an entirely different dynamic.

 

Free Agency hasn't even started yet, but I wonder if a lot of the rumors we're hearing about the Packers doing this or that, trying to make a move to compete and improve their roster in the short term aren't similar to the rumors that Gutekunst wanted to add "two receivers" last year and that he'd go after Hooper and Robbie Anderson aggressively.

 

At the absolute least, you had to have been able to get a 4th rounder for Jones in a trade. Any 4th you got would have been better than the supplemental pick you'll get for him.

 

Maybe Jones made it very clear he would not sign the Franchise Tender and they didn't want to deal with that...or I suppose they could announce a contract extension before the start of free agency, which obviously unlikely. Still, hard to see how Jones isn't worth 8.0 million for ONE year.

[HiAndTight]

So there is some rumors floating that the Packers are trying to trade P-Smith. He has a $4M roster bonus coming the third day of the NFL season, so that is probably the make/break point. For the incoming team, he would account for $12M in salary ($8M base + $4M bonus). For the Packers, they would save $8M on the cap.

 

So what would a $12M pass rusher be worth on the trade market? I wouldn't think much more than a 6th or 7th round pick. Maybe they can find the right player in return at a source of need (RT/DT/WR/CB)?

 

Either way, it sounds like P-Smith isn't going to stick around.

 

 

Maybe pre-Covid he'd get you a 4th or a 5th in return. Short-term, low risk. But with the number of FA's who are going to be available and likely cheap. Why would a team pay Smith that much when they could sign someone like Kerrigan for probably a third of that.

 

Smith himself on the open market coming off a down year probably gets a 1 year 5 million dollar deal. Ideally, he'd take a pay cut, but I'm guessing the Packers have already tried that.

 

 

I still think it makes the most sense to bring him back. You end up saving 6-7 million when you factor in his replacement, but who knows. Gutekunst is kinda all over the place. He expects him back, now there are rumors they've "floated the idea of trading him." At the very least, designate him a post-June cut and save 12 million so you've got the room to do something.

 

That's one of the possibilities suggested in this article with regard to the Packers salary cap. I would assume it's more likely the Packers are more conservative and end up having an off-season similar to last year, but they address more immediate needs in the draft.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/heres-the-packers-path-to-ample-salary-cap-space

[HiAndTight]

Devin Funchess has reportedly renegotiated his 2021 contract, offering the Packers a $750,000 break on their salary cap. He'll now earn $1.75 million if he makes the squad.

 

That has the chance of being a nice bargain for the Packers. By the looks of Funchess's Instagram, he's managed to keep himself in incredible shape, and has definitely been hitting the weight room. He's a big, strong dude. Perhaps he's a darkhorse 2021 offensive contributor. The issue is that his skillset is somewhat redundant with Lazard and St. Brown already on the roster.

 

 

It's a little redundant with Lazard, not so much St. Brown.

 

Lazard is more like a TE, similar to Funchess...who was considered a TE/WR'er coming out of the draft.

 

St. Brown is more like MVS, but I think he's a better intermediate route runner and he's got better hands.

 

I think EQ has the biggest upside of any of the Non-Adams WR'ers and he's capable of playing every position, even the physical WR'er who does many of the things they ask of Lazard, it just seems unlikely he ever reaches it. He was extremely talented at ND, but there were questions about his work ethic. Rodgers and everyone were talking about him this year...but he couldn't breakthrough. He's still young so maybe he'll figure it out, but my guess would be had has about 350 yards next year and is on another team the following(or if they draft one, he may move on earlier).

[PeaveyFury]

Z with a cryptic tweet this morning. I'd bet an extension is in the works.

 

Assuming so, that'd open up to $12.5 million this year.

[homer]

Compensatory picks get announced today. Packers will get three for Bryan Bulaga, Blake Martinez and Kyler Fackrell

[wallus]

Z with a cryptic tweet this morning. I'd bet an extension is in the works.

 

Assuming so, that'd open up to $12.5 million this year.

 

If I were in charge, I would majorly go for it this year. I think there will be a lot of value signing free agents that can help us out. Extend Smith, Adams, and get some cap from Arod.

 

Also, I am assuming they might be doing this to sign Aaron Jones which I don't like. Love him as a player but never pay RBs big money.

[pacopete4]

Just blow up the cap, win the Super Bowl, and tell the league to put it on your tab.

[PeaveyFury]

Z with a cryptic tweet this morning. I'd bet an extension is in the works.

 

Assuming so, that'd open up to $12.5 million this year.

 

If I were in charge, I would majorly go for it this year. I think there will be a lot of value signing free agents that can help us out. Extend Smith, Adams, and get some cap from Arod.

 

Also, I am assuming they might be doing this to sign Aaron Jones which I don't like. Love him as a player but never pay RBs big money.

 

If they end up freeing up enough money with a Z extension or restructure, why wouldn't they have just tagged him? I really think paying him on a 1/$8m contract is palatable, but giving him big Kamara or Cook-like money will be a disaster.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Z with a cryptic tweet this morning. I'd bet an extension is in the works.

 

Assuming so, that'd open up to $12.5 million this year.

 

If I were in charge, I would majorly go for it this year. I think there will be a lot of value signing free agents that can help us out. Extend Smith, Adams, and get some cap from Arod.

 

Also, I am assuming they might be doing this to sign Aaron Jones which I don't like. Love him as a player but never pay RBs big money.

 

If they end up freeing up enough money with a Z extension or restructure, why wouldn't they have just tagged him? I really think paying him on a 1/$8m contract is palatable, but giving him big Kamara or Cook-like money will be a disaster.

 

I am trying to come up with a reason why they wouldn't have tagged him. The only thing I can figure is that they either have a contract close to in place with him, or they are doing him a solid by not tagging him and causing ill feelings or a potential holdout, which would potentially be a PR disaster. Or perhaps they surveyed the rest of the league and found out that they wouldn't be able to do better than a 3rd or 4th round pick in a tag-and-trade deal. That seems unlikely, though, as even a 4th in the 2021 draft would have more value than an extremely late 3rd in 2022.

[PeaveyFury]

Or perhaps they surveyed the rest of the league and found out that they wouldn't be able to do better than a 3rd or 4th round pick in a tag-and-trade deal. That seems unlikely, though, as even a 4th in the 2021 draft would have more value than an extremely late 3rd in 2022.

 

I suppose it's possible that they couldn't even get that, as a potential reason. If the best offer was a 5th, they'd be better off taking the 3rd, even though it's a year later.

 

Seems unlikely that they wouldn't have been able to get a legit offer for him, though.

 

Usually the easiest explanation is the correct one, which in this case there are two options: that they either have no intention to resign him at all, or that they are working on a bigger deal with him.

[pacopete4]

And again, NO TEAM will actually have a Cap of $182.5M. With Cap carryover and reconciliation of 2020 earned and unearned incentives, each team's Adjusted Cap will be different. For example, the Colts carried over $30 million, Cap will be over $210M for them.

[homer]

Packers get fourth (143), fifth (178) and sixth-round (220) compensatory draft picks

[pacopete4]

Sounds like 3/5ths of an offensive line to me.