Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[adambr2]

Yeah I didn't realize until I looked up his numbers what a nice career Buckley ended up having.

[HiAndTight]

Yeah I didn't realize until I looked up his numbers what a nice career Buckley ended up having.

 

 

I knew he'd gone on and had a lot of years with a lot of picks, but I wasn't old enough to see or understand what the problem was in GB. Looking at his stats and using PFR AV(annual value) which is a pretty crude way to evaluate how valuable a player was, but they've got him at 9, 8 and 11 AV and 10 picks through his first 3 years.

 

For a point of reference, they have Jaire at 10 from last season.

 

Obviously, INT's play a bigger role in that as Xavien Howard with 10 picks last year was worth 18 AV. So...again, it's flawed, but what was the reason we gave up on him at 23 years old.

 

 

23 years old, 12 picks in his first 50 games and the Packers just give T-Buck away for "future considerations" to the Dolphins. Was he really that bad? I know he held out....but is there any way they move on from a guy like that under this front office? He kinda reminds me of the Patience they showed Jermichael Finley, but I don't know if that's accurate.

 

 

I do love the way things came full circle and how they broke the "Terrell Buckley" rule to draft the guy who's currently the best young CB in the NFL and who T-Buck literally coached in College.

[adambr2]

Not to get too far off topic but Tony Mandarich is another high draft story that turned out a little differently than we all remember.

 

All Packer fans remember that he was one of their biggest busts ever. What they may not know is that he made it back to the NFL after 5 whole years away from the NFL and against the odds not only made the Colts' roster but turned out to be a good lineman for 3 seasons.

[HiAndTight]

Not to get too far off topic but Tony Mandarich is another high draft story that turned out a little differently than we all remember.

 

All Packer fans remember that he was one of their biggest busts ever. What they may not know is that he made it back to the NFL after 5 whole years away from the NFL and against the odds not only made the Colts' roster but turned out to be a good lineman for 3 seasons.

 

 

I do remember that. I think Infante was their Head Coach, so that probably helped him get another shot in the league. That was a pretty cool story. Going from that far down to coming back to play in the NFL...

[FVBrewerFan]

They could definitely offer a deal for Watt even more lucrative than the Za'Darius Smith deal. Za'Darius 1st year cap hit was only $7MM. That's why this $15MM/yr for Watt thing is so meaningless. Packers could do $20MM/year for Watt just fine. 5 yrs/ $100MM incl a $25MM signing bonus. No clue if that would be enough, or if I even agree with that, but they COULD do it. That would mean Watt's first year cap hit could be only $6-$7 MM depending what salary they added to the $5MM signing bonus allocated to to 2021.

 

They still need to extend Adams and/or Rodgers to sign Watt or anyone else. It's not that simple though, or it would have been done by now. And actually, speaking of Za'Darius Smith, he's another candidate for contract extension. His cap hit this year will be $21.5MM, but if they re-work his contract and convert his salary for this year into a signing bonus, they could free up probably $10MM or so.

 

 

Sure, they really can sign pretty much anyone and make it work...some just start getting more and more unrealistic.

 

When I first hear 15-16 for JJ, I guess I was thinking a 2-3 year type deal, but he's just 31, so you're right. No reason it has to be that short. I definitely wouldn't do 5/100, but 4/64? I think that'd really be worth it.

 

It would be a 3 yr deal. The last two years are window dressing, and will never happen.

[CheezWizHed]

The guy who'd probably benefit the most...if he were brought back, would be King. But I think most Packers fans have already buried that dude.

 

Same if we ended up starting a lesser CB there, too.

 

T-Buck is only 49. Maybe he has some wheels left.

 

[sarcasm]Pass over Vincent over for T-Buck again? Never![/sarcasm]

[HiAndTight]

They could definitely offer a deal for Watt even more lucrative than the Za'Darius Smith deal. Za'Darius 1st year cap hit was only $7MM. That's why this $15MM/yr for Watt thing is so meaningless. Packers could do $20MM/year for Watt just fine. 5 yrs/ $100MM incl a $25MM signing bonus. No clue if that would be enough, or if I even agree with that, but they COULD do it. That would mean Watt's first year cap hit could be only $6-$7 MM depending what salary they added to the $5MM signing bonus allocated to to 2021.

 

They still need to extend Adams and/or Rodgers to sign Watt or anyone else. It's not that simple though, or it would have been done by now. And actually, speaking of Za'Darius Smith, he's another candidate for contract extension. His cap hit this year will be $21.5MM, but if they re-work his contract and convert his salary for this year into a signing bonus, they could free up probably $10MM or so.

 

 

Sure, they really can sign pretty much anyone and make it work...some just start getting more and more unrealistic.

 

When I first hear 15-16 for JJ, I guess I was thinking a 2-3 year type deal, but he's just 31, so you're right. No reason it has to be that short. I definitely wouldn't do 5/100, but 4/64? I think that'd really be worth it.

 

It would be a 3 yr deal. The last two years are window dressing, and will never happen.

 

 

So then something like 3/46 with 15 guaranteed?

 

Yeah, that would work also, but it's not like the Packers are where the Saints were last year. Their window isn't wide open, but it's open for more than just one year. And I get they could always restructure after next year.

 

We'll see what it ends up being, but if it looked just like Smith's, that'd be fine. They'd have an out after two years, he'd still get his 15-16 in AAV.

 

I think there's actually a decent chance this contract is already agreed upon. Maybe not the specifics, but the outline. The Packers may just be waiting to extend Adams and restructure Rodgers before announcing.

 

That's obviously just a guess, but once I heard the Steelers and Browns were no longer in the running, it made sense. Watt has made a lot of money in the NFL and probably just as much in endorsements. Having a chance to come home and help put his "hometown" team over the top should appeal to him more than maximizing his last contract.

 

Plus, TJ's probably gonna get 25+ per year,[sarcasm]so he can always borrow from little brother if he needs to. The one ya gotta feel sorryfor in that family is Derek![/sarcasm]

[CheezWizHed]

The guy who'd probably benefit the most...if he were brought back, would be King. But I think most Packers fans have already buried that dude.

 

Same if we ended up starting a lesser CB there, too.

 

T-Buck is only 49. Maybe he has some wheels left.

 

[sarcasm]Pass over Vincent over for T-Buck again? Never![/sarcasm]

 

Whoa. I opened Packerswire this morning and for a second, thought the Packers were talking to Craig Newsome:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2021/02/26/packers-meet-virtually-with-northwestern-cb-greg-newsome-ii/

[CheezWizHed]

With the TV deals nearing completion, I wonder if COVID strengthened the NFL's position. Far more people watching on TV since they couldn't attend the games.

[adambr2]

With the TV deals nearing completion, I wonder if COVID strengthened the NFL's position. Far more people watching on TV since they couldn't attend the games.

 

Were they though? I'm fairly certain that viewership was down in 2020 despite the pandemic, and stadium attendance is kind of a drop in the bucket for viewership compared to the usual number of a television audience.

 

Not like the NFL is hurting or anything but 2020 was a pretty weak year for sports viewing across the board.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sorry, no, when I said 3 year deal I meant in reality thats what it ends up being. Officially it would be like 5 yrs/100MM with 25MM bonus. But a huge chunk of the 75MM salary is backloaded in years 4 and 5, never paid.

 

Watt wins because he gets $25MM up front, Packers win because cap is very manageable the first 2 years. Very similar to what they did with Za'Darius but Watt probably demands a higher signing bonus.

[CheezWizHed]

With the TV deals nearing completion, I wonder if COVID strengthened the NFL's position. Far more people watching on TV since they couldn't attend the games.

 

Were they though? I'm fairly certain that viewership was down in 2020 despite the pandemic, and stadium attendance is kind of a drop in the bucket for viewership compared to the usual number of a television audience.

 

Not like the NFL is hurting or anything but 2020 was a pretty weak year for sports viewing across the board.

 

I probably should've looked before I "leaped". Ratings were down 7%.

 

Given the lack of entertainment, people stuck at home, and people not watching in person (about 500k each week), I'd assumed it would've been up.

[HiAndTight]

With the TV deals nearing completion, I wonder if COVID strengthened the NFL's position. Far more people watching on TV since they couldn't attend the games.

 

Were they though? I'm fairly certain that viewership was down in 2020 despite the pandemic, and stadium attendance is kind of a drop in the bucket for viewership compared to the usual number of a television audience.

 

Not like the NFL is hurting or anything but 2020 was a pretty weak year for sports viewing across the board.

 

I probably should've looked before I "leaped". Ratings were down 7%.

 

Given the lack of entertainment, people stuck at home, and people not watching in person (about 500k each week), I'd assumed it would've been up.

 

 

I remember reading an article from earlier this year regarding the ratings. IIRC, the NFL actually sent out memo's to NFL teams telling them not to worry about it. I believe it was Forbes...but it was a while ago.

 

Basically the arguments laid out in the article why the NFL was doing well were as follows(this is going to be a crude summary of an article I read a while back).

 

1-NFL viewership always goes down in Election year. This year it was down much less than it was in 2016. I believe it went down 14 pct in 2016 and then went back to normal after the election. This past year I believe it was down less than half of that through the election.

2-There are more people streaming and watching online, so the ratings don't give an accurate representation. Not sure I understand that one because they should be able to track online streaming just as well as TV viewership.

3-It was the first time ever you had all Major Sports playing at the same time, so that created a bit of an outlier in which there was actually more viewing options for sports and a shorter time period where the NFL was dominant.

4-As better becomes more popular, they expect the NFL to grow in popularity.

 

They also talked about how protests and social justice issues DID drive some people away and were impacting their ratings as well.

 

I tried searching for the article I read and I found some that touch on some of these points...not positive what this means long term for the NFL, but they seem to be in good shape at least short term.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Appears J.J. Watt is going to the Arizona Cardinals. So close the book on that one ... thankfully.

 

Deal is 2 years/$31 million, with $23 million guaranteed. Yep, no way the Packers could have, or should have swung that.

[nate82]

Not the team I thought he would sign with. I really thought he was going to sign with the Bills.

 

My rankings for where Watt was going to sign were:

 

1. Bills

2. Colts

3. Chargers

4. Packers/Chiefs

 

I just never thought the Cardinals were even in the running to sign him or even on the radar at all.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I'm definitely surprised by that one. Seems a fair guess that was his largest money deal. So money talks rather than true title contention. It's not like AZ is bad though, definitely could make the playoffs and then who knows. Just thought he'd want to be on a more proven close team

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The contender talk was fluff. Not that AZ is terrible, but you don't walk into that bloodbath of a division if that is your #1 goal. I'm sure he didn't want to play for a doormat but it clearly wasn't that high up the list.

 

Edit: I suppose it's fair to say AZ is an ascending team with a lot of promise. But they are (probably) still a year away from true contention. I guess stranger things have happened than the Cardinals winning the NFC next year though. Surprising because they weren't on the radar, but in hindsight not truly shocking, I guess.

[owbc]

Seahawks fans are freaking out so I consider this a win.

[adambr2]

Contender is pretty subjective, you could make a reasonable case for 20 teams depending on how you're going to define it. I wouldn't say his best chance is in Arizona, but yeah, they have some promise.

 

I would guess Hopkins was a big part of getting Watt to Arizona. Or certainly didn't hurt.

 

It won't happen, but doesn't Watson for Murray make a ton of sense for both sides?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The more I think about it, that division might be a good contender for being overrated going into 2021. The Rams have cap trouble but a lot of hype with a QB who's kinda been treated with kid gloves, but hasn't actually done a lot of winning. SF is dependent on an awful lot of injury rehab. Seattle is a giant mess. It's not that far fetched that AZ is the favorite with Murray continuing to develop.

[MrTPlush]

It would have been cool, but I wouldn't even give Watt one year at that price with our cap crunch. He has played 8 or less game 3 times in the last 5 years. Not to mention he is 30+ and his stats aren't what they used to be.

 

I keep seeing stuff about Russell Wilson, the QB drama in Green Bay must have gotten too boring for ESPN to stir up.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think anyone thought he'd get that much money. If that was the deal being tossed around, not a single Packers fan would have thought he's coming here.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly right. In this year's suppressed cap market I never thought he'd get that much. And at that number you know GB doesn't have room to do it. If he was getting say 10-12 offers elsewhere and GB would make 8-9 work, well then yea maybe. That's kind of what I thought/hoped it could work out here.

 

And yes AZ is not bad and could make some noise, especially with Sea seemingly falling apart and SF all of a sudden being a big question mark. Rams obviously a strong team for this year but their cap situation is going to hit them a bit more every year from here out

[PeaveyFury]

Well, that's certainly.... unexpected. I'll echo most of the comments here. AZ isn't really NOT a contender, but with a Stafford-led Rams team, if Seattle keeps Wilson, and assuming even a modest bounce-back year out of SF, Arizona might be the worst team in that division. Or not. The NFC West is admittedly full of unknowns for 2021.

 

It's strange that Watt played on a Houston team that was vaguely a playoff contender for most of his career but never legit enough to make it past a first or second-round playoff loss, and now goes to a team that ASPIRES to be a vague playoff contender, that if they are will likely get bounced in the first or second round.

 

I'd bet that they were the most competitive team to put together a significant payday offer, and thus he's a Card. And as noted, Hopkins probably helped lobby him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Cardinals are the perfect type of team to make this sort of move, with a QB who is still on his rookie deal. It makes money available for them to make "all in" type short-term moves like this. I'm guessing this won't be the last big move the Cardinals make this offseason.