Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[HiAndTight]

In fairness to him, it's only been about a week. We're just eager to see a HOF'er from Wisconsin who's still playing at an elite level sign with the Packers.

 

 

I originally thought the longer he went without signing, the better it'd be for the Packers chances...and then when the Browns and Steelers dropped out, I thought it was just about a given. I still hope it is, but I hope they're not dumb enough to give him 15 million per year. He was great last year and he is pretty much a perfect fit in Green Bay, but there are a lot of moves they can make at that price.

 

 

Hell, sign Leonard Williams if you're going to spend that much on a DE. Williams doesn't have the Wisconsin connections, but he's a younger player and he's also a near perfect fit who can play the run and get after the QB.

 

Or just sign Jurrell Casey or re-up on a cheap deal with Damon Harrison, then you can probably get two other good veteran players for the same money Watt is going to cost by himself.

 

Personally, I'm indifferent to Watt as a Packer. Yeah, it would be a fun "local kid comes home" story, but people are making it bigger than it probably is. He would be a step up from Lowry, but not a "4X the salary" one. I think a lot of fans think that Watt is the 2015 version, and that is no longer the case. Not even close.

 

 

No, he's not worth 4X what Lowry's getting, but he's a big threat as a pass rusher whereas Harrison and Casey aren't. Shelby Harris...who incidentally also has Wisconsin ties(from Milwaukee) would be a great fit as well.

 

I'm a huge fan of signing him because, again, I think it's just the perfect fit for this defense...and I think he could get double-digit sacks with the players around him, but I think we all agree, not for 15 million.

 

I'll just hope that's a smokescreen and he'll be a Packers until I hear he signs elsewhere though, and dream of having a front that can generate the type of pressure SF could or the Buccs did last year. But if we don't sign him, it's not the end of the world.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

 

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this.

 

Since the NFLPA president is already urging the players and agents to openly collude on contract offers over the next few years that are going to be impacted by lesser caps than where they otherwise would, I'm sure every agent out there is going to call the Jaguars up and ask them to provide a contract offer for their client just so that amount can get leaked out there - even if there's absolutely no chance that player signs with them.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30963821/nflpa-demaurice-smith-tells-agents-collude-offers-ensure-teams-not-limiting-salaries-source-says

 

And to a different post in this thread, a diminished but still healthy JJ Watt is still a pro bowler at the DE position in a 3-4. He would be a HUGE upgrade to the Packers' front 7 compared to what they have in Lowry. He won't win a 4th DPOY award, but he's still a very good player - that's not 2015 name recognition, it's the 2020 game tape that says so.

[HiAndTight]

In fairness to him, it's only been about a week. We're just eager to see a HOF'er from Wisconsin who's still playing at an elite level sign with the Packers.

 

 

I originally thought the longer he went without signing, the better it'd be for the Packers chances...and then when the Browns and Steelers dropped out, I thought it was just about a given. I still hope it is, but I hope they're not dumb enough to give him 15 million per year. He was great last year and he is pretty much a perfect fit in Green Bay, but there are a lot of moves they can make at that price.

 

 

Hell, sign Leonard Williams if you're going to spend that much on a DE. Williams doesn't have the Wisconsin connections, but he's a younger player and he's also a near perfect fit who can play the run and get after the QB.

 

Or just sign Jurrell Casey or re-up on a cheap deal with Damon Harrison, then you can probably get two other good veteran players for the same money Watt is going to cost by himself.

 

Personally, I'm indifferent to Watt as a Packer. Yeah, it would be a fun "local kid comes home" story, but people are making it bigger than it probably is. He would be a step up from Lowry, but not a "4X the salary" one. I think a lot of fans think that Watt is the 2015 version, and that is no longer the case. Not even close.

 

He was still a top 10 player at his position as he has been every season. PFF graded him as an 85.5 and 7th best edge player in 2020. It's true that he's not the 2014 and 2015 player who was in a different stratosphere than every other defensive player but he is still a jillion times better than Dean Lowry.

 

 

This is true, some people are really underrating him now because he's no longer playing at the other-worldly level he once was. That Texans defense last year was really weak around him also. Mercilus was the only other guy you'd call any type of threat.

 

Looking at the roster around him and how good he was, I can actually talk myself into him being worth 15 million next year, it just seems like at that point, you're putting ALL your eggs in one basket and hoping he can stay healthy and play at a near All-Pro level again.

 

 

Either way, I just hope Gutey is aggressive this off-season in trying to upgrade this team. Even if they can't make Reggie work, Gillmore is available, there are half a dozen CB's who will be available and won't break the bank. We're so close...a player or two could make the difference in getting Rodgers a 2nd ring.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looking at the roster around him and how good he was, I can actually talk myself into him being worth 15 million next year, it just seems like at that point, you're putting ALL your eggs in one basket and hoping he can stay healthy and play at a near All-Pro level again.

 

It's a lot of eggs to put in the basket of a 32-year-old whose had some pretty serious injuries the past few seasons. It's a move that would be so far out of the norm that Gute has established over the last few offseasons, which is why I have a lot of trouble seeing it happen. The risks the Packers take are always very calculated, and often conservative, and signing Watt to a $15 million per year deal wouldn't be either of those. It just sucks that the Packers front office is going to take in invariable amount of crap when Watt ends up signing somewhere else, when it was always an extreme long shot at best due to the financial aspect and the team's front office MO.

[HiAndTight]

Looking at the roster around him and how good he was, I can actually talk myself into him being worth 15 million next year, it just seems like at that point, you're putting ALL your eggs in one basket and hoping he can stay healthy and play at a near All-Pro level again.

 

It's a lot of eggs to put in the basket of a 32-year-old whose had some pretty serious injuries the past few seasons. It's a move that would be so far out of the norm that Gute has established over the last few offseasons, which is why I have a lot of trouble seeing it happen. The risks the Packers take are always very calculated, and often conservative, and signing Watt to a $15 million per year deal wouldn't be either of those. It just sucks that the Packers front office is going to take in invariable amount of crap when Watt ends up signing somewhere else, when it was always an extreme long shot at best due to the financial aspect and the team's front office MO.

 

 

I just don't see how Gutey has a long enough history to have much of an idea one way or the other.

 

He went on the biggest FA binge in franchise history and then he drafted a QB in the first round.

 

I don't know what type of moves he'll make, BUT, the injury part may be a little overblown with him. He played over 90 pct of their snaps two of the last three years and the year in between I believe he had a torn bicep or pec muscle. A flukey injury. So hopefully he's past the back injuries.

 

 

As always, the 15 million AAV is kinda meaningless until we hear what the guarantee is and how long it is. Like I said, if he's looking for even a Za'Darius Smith type contract, that would be fine. If he's looking for 4 years 60 million with 30+ guaranteed, that's probably too much.

 

Either way, with the way everyone's talked about the Packers being in Cap hell, I don't think the FO will take the heat if they don't sign him...but I could be wrong. I won't blame them unless he ends up signing an affordable deal elsewhere. So rarely does a FA line up as well as Watt does with the Packers, so it's easy to see why everyone is so invested in him signing.

[GAME05]

It also makes less sense to pay one guy big money in a year when there's probably going to be a lot of talent getting waived to clear cap space. Of course there's nothing saying his number is $15M. If he signs for $8M somewhere else I'd be a little more frustrated, though.

 

Yep, just convincing myself that Watt would actually be a bad signing. You're just not a Packers fan if you can't convince yourself that any worst-case scenario is actually for the best. I hope Rodgers gets traded soon, Dillon will be an upgrade over Jones, and our line will be great so long as Jenkins plays three positions.

[HiAndTight]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

 

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this.

 

Since the NFLPA president is already urging the players and agents to openly collude on contract offers over the next few years that are going to be impacted by lesser caps than where they otherwise would, I'm sure every agent out there is going to call the Jaguars up and ask them to provide a contract offer for their client just so that amount can get leaked out there - even if there's absolutely no chance that player signs with them.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30963821/nflpa-demaurice-smith-tells-agents-collude-offers-ensure-teams-not-limiting-salaries-source-says

 

And to a different post in this thread, a diminished but still healthy JJ Watt is still a pro bowler at the DE position in a 3-4. He would be a HUGE upgrade to the Packers' front 7 compared to what they have in Lowry. He won't win a 4th DPOY award, but he's still a very good player - that's not 2015 name recognition, it's the 2020 game tape that says so.

 

 

I was surprised he'd played 91 pct of his snaps last year and over 90 in 2018. And while Lowry is very possibly gone if we were to make this move, in a perfect world, he'd replace Lancaster and Lowry would get one more year to be the 4th option on the DL while they draft and develop a younger guy.

 

I don't see any reason why the Packers shouldn't look at this as a 2-3 year investment. You look at what a cuy like Cameron Heyward is doing, he'll be going into his age 33 season next year and he hasn't slowed down much. I don't see any reason to expect Watt to.

 

The more we talk about this, the more similar to Charles Woodson is sounds to me. The difference in Woodson had fallen off much worse than Watt had and at a position that relies on athletic ability more.

 

 

Also, Woodson won DPOY when he was 33, Reggie when he was 38. Plug Watt into the lineup and I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but I think he might actually be able to put up DPOY type numbers. At the very least, I'd expect Keke, Gary, Clark and the Smiths(or just the one Smith) to see their production go up quite a bit.

 

It's such a significant domino effect when you can add a guy who demands double teams. It just changes the entire defense at every level.

[HiAndTight]

It also makes less sense to pay one guy big money in a year when there's probably going to be a lot of talent getting waived to clear cap space. Of course there's nothing saying his number is $15M. If he signs for $8M somewhere else I'd be a little more frustrated, though.

 

Yep, just convincing myself that Watt would actually be a bad signing. You're just not a Packers fan if you can't convince yourself that any worst-case scenario is actually for the best. I hope Rodgers gets traded soon, Dillon will be an upgrade over Jones, and our line will be great so long as Jenkins plays three positions.

 

 

Exactly! That's why I'm trying...with little success to not get too excited about a potential signing. Justifying it by saying 3 players would be better.

 

But if he signs a deal that we could afford for a team like Tampa...that's just gonna be a kick square in the gut. I really don't expect it to happen, but it makes so much sense on so many levels. Come Home JJ! Follow in Reggie's footsteps!

 

The man would never have to pay for a beer in Wisconsin for as long as he lived. Hell, I'd even throw Derek on the tab!

[LouisEly]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

 

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this.

And I guarantee that's not guaranteed money. Easy to say the offer is $15M/year when the last two years average $25M/year in non-guaranteed salary and bonuses. If it exists, it's backloaded to the hilt.

[PinaMadness]

Here's a rule of thumb. Ask yourself "Is this player a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer?" If the answer is yes, sign him. Those types of players just don't fall off a cliff at age 32. Now if you are concerned about his injury history that's a valid concern, but the age thing is overblown. He can still ball.

[HiAndTight]

Here's a rule of thumb. Ask yourself "Is this player a surefire first ballot Hall of Famer?" If the answer is yes, sign him. Those types of players just don't fall off a cliff at age 32. Now if you are concerned about his injury history that's a valid concern, but the age thing is overblown. He can still ball.

 

 

Yeah, you're right. The fact that he just came off the 2nd highest snap total of his NFL Career and played just below an All Pro level...maybe 15 million per really isn't out of line, even in today's market.

 

The back injuries that caused him to miss most of 2 seasons are now 4 and 5 seasons old.

 

If the Packers only made one significant addition to this team....and lost their top FA's in Jones and Linsley, would you be happy with 'just' the addition of Watt and whomever they draft as their most significant additions?

[HiAndTight]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

 

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this.

And I guarantee that's not guaranteed money. Easy to say the offer is $15M/year when the last two years average $25M/year in non-guaranteed salary and bonuses. If it exists, it's backloaded to the hilt.

 

 

Something between what Preston Smith got and what Za'Darius Smith got would probably be doable for the Packers.

 

Both had relatively small-cap hits early on and they didn't get a ton of guaranteed money. And the Packers could still count on getting two premium comp picks next year for Jones and Linsley since Watt wouldn't count against them.

 

Another team that I'd kinda forgotten about though is Dallas. Jerry loves those long-term cap-friendly deals and Watt's already pretty damn big in Texas. And the Cowboys biggest need is probably along the DL.

[brewcrewdue80]

3-4 lining up Gary, Watt, Clark? You'd have to feel good locking down the left half defensive field with pressure. Alexander on the right side WR to cover for the quick avoid of pass rush? Shortens that field of options offensively. I'd think Savage or Alexander leads league in ints when forcing the qb in to more predictable outs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Something between what Preston Smith got and what Za'Darius Smith got would probably be doable for the Packers.

 

Both had relatively small-cap hits early on and they didn't get a ton of guaranteed money. And the Packers could still count on getting two premium comp picks next year for Jones and Linsley since Watt wouldn't count against them.

 

Another team that I'd kinda forgotten about though is Dallas. Jerry loves those long-term cap-friendly deals and Watt's already pretty damn big in Texas. And the Cowboys biggest need is probably along the DL.

 

If the Packers could line up something like that with a low cap hit in 2021, I'd be more in favor of it. I still believe Watt can be a good player that would help this defense. But if we're talking a $15 million hit this year, I'm sorry, but I'm out. I would hope everyone who wants them to field a complete team would agree. The Packers cannot afford to take on a cap hit of $15 million this season for J.J. Watt. That's irresponsible, regardless of how much you want to see that #99 Watt Packers jersey.

 

I do agree that his style of play is a very solid fit for this defense, and being a cog in the middle of a defense that includes other solid pass rushers like Z, Gary and Kenny Clark would probably help his pass rush numbers.

[HiAndTight]

3-4 lining up Gary, Watt, Clark? You'd have to feel good locking down the left half defensive field with pressure. Alexander on the right side WR to cover for the quick avoid of pass rush? Shortens that field of options offensively. I'd think Savage or Alexander leads league in ints when forcing the qb in to more predictable outs.

 

 

I don't think Alexander is going to be a big INT guy. Those guys tend to play in zone or they tend to play a little riskier(think Peters). Alexander is just relentless and doesn't bait QB's.

 

Savage though, he could be a guy who gets 6-7 picks.

 

The guy who'd probably benefit the most...if he were brought back, would be King. But I think most Packers fans have already buried that dude.

[FVBrewerFan]

They could definitely offer a deal for Watt even more lucrative than the Za'Darius Smith deal. Za'Darius 1st year cap hit was only $7MM. That's why this $15MM/yr for Watt thing is so meaningless. Packers could do $20MM/year for Watt just fine. 5 yrs/ $100MM incl a $25MM signing bonus. No clue if that would be enough, or if I even agree with that, but they COULD do it. That would mean Watt's first year cap hit could be only $6-$7 MM depending what salary they added to the $5MM signing bonus allocated to to 2021.

 

They still need to extend Adams and/or Rodgers to sign Watt or anyone else. It's not that simple though, or it would have been done by now. And actually, speaking of Za'Darius Smith, he's another candidate for contract extension. His cap hit this year will be $21.5MM, but if they re-work his contract and convert his salary for this year into a signing bonus, they could free up probably $10MM or so.

[pacopete4]

When will the actual cap be decided? That seems like an important thing for teams to know.

[PeaveyFury]

It is a little astounding it's not finalized yet. With the tag window already open, you'd think a lot of that decision making would heavily rely on knowing your actual cap situation in an odd year.

[GAME05]

The guy who'd probably benefit the most...if he were brought back, would be King. But I think most Packers fans have already buried that dude.

 

Same if we ended up starting a lesser CB there, too.

 

T-Buck is only 49. Maybe he has some wheels left.

[OldHeidelberg]

King had an ugly end to the season and is injury prone but as bargain FA's go he may not be a bad guy to bring back rather then spend the same $ on someone else. At least the shoulder issues seem to be in the past. He seems like a bad fit for our defense though, not sure how much will change under the new DC.

[HiAndTight]

The guy who'd probably benefit the most...if he were brought back, would be King. But I think most Packers fans have already buried that dude.

 

Same if we ended up starting a lesser CB there, too.

 

T-Buck is only 49. Maybe he has some wheels left.

 

Ha...T-Buck. Jaire Alexander's old position coach at Louisville and the reason Packers fans don't like smaller CB's(or didn't before Jaire).

 

 

I don't remember real clearly how T-Buck left...I know he came in with a lot of controversies, but he becomes a pretty good CB in the NFL. Even with the Packers, he wasn't as bad as the jokes.

[HiAndTight]

They could definitely offer a deal for Watt even more lucrative than the Za'Darius Smith deal. Za'Darius 1st year cap hit was only $7MM. That's why this $15MM/yr for Watt thing is so meaningless. Packers could do $20MM/year for Watt just fine. 5 yrs/ $100MM incl a $25MM signing bonus. No clue if that would be enough, or if I even agree with that, but they COULD do it. That would mean Watt's first year cap hit could be only $6-$7 MM depending what salary they added to the $5MM signing bonus allocated to to 2021.

 

They still need to extend Adams and/or Rodgers to sign Watt or anyone else. It's not that simple though, or it would have been done by now. And actually, speaking of Za'Darius Smith, he's another candidate for contract extension. His cap hit this year will be $21.5MM, but if they re-work his contract and convert his salary for this year into a signing bonus, they could free up probably $10MM or so.

 

 

Sure, they really can sign pretty much anyone and make it work...some just start getting more and more unrealistic.

 

When I first hear 15-16 for JJ, I guess I was thinking a 2-3 year type deal, but he's just 31, so you're right. No reason it has to be that short. I definitely wouldn't do 5/100, but 4/64? I think that'd really be worth it.

[brewcrewdue80]

3-4 lining up Gary, Watt, Clark? You'd have to feel good locking down the left half defensive field with pressure. Alexander on the right side WR to cover for the quick avoid of pass rush? Shortens that field of options offensively. I'd think Savage or Alexander leads league in ints when forcing the qb in to more predictable outs.

 

 

I don't think Alexander is going to be a big INT guy. Those guys tend to play in zone or they tend to play a little riskier(think Peters). Alexander is just relentless and doesn't bait QB's.

 

Savage though, he could be a guy who gets 6-7 picks.

 

The guy who'd probably benefit the most...if he were brought back, would be King. But I think most Packers fans have already buried that dude.

 

The idea is QBs make mistakes under pressure. You cant double team all of that trio and have adequate receiving options. There's gotta be a season or two for Alexander's career where he has a lot of ints in. Hes too good not to. It's just optimism. Watt is definitely putting more pressures on QB than Lowry or Lancaster.

[LouisEly]

It is a little astounding it's not finalized yet. With the tag window already open, you'd think a lot of that decision making would heavily rely on knowing your actual cap situation in an odd year.

I'd be willing to bet that it has been informally communicated to teams, but not publicly communicated because they are still trying to negotiate things with the player's union. Thus why teams have been told that it won't be below a certain level, but could be higher.

[HiAndTight]

It is a little astounding it's not finalized yet. With the tag window already open, you'd think a lot of that decision making would heavily rely on knowing your actual cap situation in an odd year.

I'd be willing to bet that it has been informally communicated to teams, but not publicly communicated because they are still trying to negotiate things with the player's union. Thus why teams have been told that it won't be below a certain level, but could be higher.

 

 

Most reports made it sound like they wanted to wait until the TV deal was finished.