Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[PeaveyFury]

John Clayton is reporting that the Browns and Steelers are out on Watt. Obviously, Pittsburgh was a very big competitor to the Packers in potential attractiveness due to the brothers playing there, but their cap situation is pretty ugly. Can’t help but think that report is very good news....

[LouisEly]

What are the chances Jones sits out if he's tagged on 1year/$8M? I feel like there's a better than 50/50 chance he sits out than plays on that contract.

I think lots of guys are going to sign one-year deals because of the cap going down. There just isn't a lot of space to sign guys, and they'll take their chances that they can get a bigger deal next offseason if attendance returns. For veterans who will have to sign a one-year deal for around minimum, those guys could easily sit out a year.

[LouisEly]

Assuming Linsley is gone and Wagner is already been released. You've lost 2/5 of one of your strongest units while Bak is still recovering from a serious injury and could miss the start of the year. What is the plan there, I know they did well with the one backup this year but this would need a lot of attention and we saw what happened vs TB. This is the somewhat unspoken key to the offense and the reason any RB they've plugged in has done well. And of course Rodgers can't get hurt so he can't go back to running for his life like a few years ago.

Spoiler alert...

 

Round 1 - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas (only 8 pressures in ~350 snaps last year)

Round 4 - Josh Myers, C/G, Ohio State

[OldHeidelberg]

If Silverstein has any insider info on the Watt hopes it's only because the Packers are giving him the narrative they want since they know Packer fans are very interested in bringing him here. It could be the Packers inquired but decided the price for a 32 year old player was too high. Yes the cap plays into that but the Packers have stayed out of the top tier FA market I think since the Joe Johnson debacle, they seem to like the 2nd wave guys, even Pickett and Woodson and were guys signed later in the process. Another thing that I don't know if I have seen discussed is they may not be too keen about extending Adams a year early to create cap space. Considering the season he had not a great time for an extension when you can wait a year and see how things fall.

[HiAndTight]

I'd race to give NE a 3rd rounder for Gillmore. Though I figure that would have to be a 3+ just to best anyone else who'd offer a 3rd rounder.

 

 

So a 2nd for Gilmore? Maybe a 2nd and a 4th for Gilmore and a future 3rd?

 

I don't know, a 2nd is pretty high, but to be able to put a CB across from Alexander would be huge. And that's assuming his cap hit for us would be just the 7.3 million in base salary. He's coming to the end of the 5/65 deal he signed, so I think his base salary would be all that's owed, but I was wrong about Goff's cap hit.

 

So much more appealing to me than going out and signing Patrick Peterson as a FA. He's projected to get 2/20.

 

Sign JJ, trade for Gilmore, and Barry has absolutely zero excuses to put a top 5 defense on the field next year.

[HiAndTight]

There are just so many talented backs that can be inserted pretty much right away. Go with Dillon and draft some guys and do some waiver diving to find your depth. Don't spend money on this position.

 

I really like the idea of a tag-and-trade as a result. I think you'd find immense value in moving a productive RB on that type of contract to another team.

 

 

The more we talk about it, the most likely it seems like the Packers would tag him, if only to get some compensation this year for him. Otherwise, you'll likely wait until next year.

 

The only problem is, I don't think Jones is going to have a very large market, and any team trading for him is going to have to work out their own long-term extension most likely. I don't think a team like the Jags or the Jets are giving up draft picks for a guy who's not guaranteed to be there in two years. So at that point, what are we looking at? Maybe a 3rd round pick, probably a 4th?

 

That's pretty damn valuable given they're both picking near the top of the draft.

 

Either way, I don't think Jones is going to get near the contract he's looking for. I wouldn't give him anything near Kamara or Cook...and I'm a big fan of him. I definitely wouldn't do that if I was rebuilding a young team.

 

John Clayton is reporting that the Browns and Steelers are out on Watt. Obviously, Pittsburgh was a very big competitor to the Packers in potential attractiveness due to the brothers playing there, but their cap situation is pretty ugly. Can’t help but think that report is very good news....

 

 

Well, that's certainly good news if you're a Packers fan that wants Watt to come to GB. Cleveland seemed like the biggest threat as they're in pretty good shape cap-wise with Mayfield on his rookie deal.

[HiAndTight]

If Silverstein has any insider info on the Watt hopes it's only because the Packers are giving him the narrative they want since they know Packer fans are very interested in bringing him here. It could be the Packers inquired but decided the price for a 32 year old player was too high. Yes the cap plays into that but the Packers have stayed out of the top tier FA market I think since the Joe Johnson debacle, they seem to like the 2nd wave guys, even Pickett and Woodson and were guys signed later in the process. Another thing that I don't know if I have seen discussed is they may not be too keen about extending Adams a year early to create cap space. Considering the season he had not a great time for an extension when you can wait a year and see how things fall.

 

 

They just spent nearly 200 million the off-season before last.

 

Also, I would argue Watt's more along the lines of a Charles Woodson signing than a "top tier" FA.

 

With regard to Adams, I'd be shocked if they don't extend him this year. He'll definitely have the leverage...both coming off the season he just came off of, but also having that nearly 17 million dollar cap hit that they'll want to cut by about 66 pct, but I still think it gets done. I'd guess it's probably one of their top priorities right now. Adams and then trying to extend or restructure Rodgers deal.

[HiAndTight]

Assuming Linsley is gone and Wagner is already been released. You've lost 2/5 of one of your strongest units while Bak is still recovering from a serious injury and could miss the start of the year. What is the plan there, I know they did well with the one backup this year but this would need a lot of attention and we saw what happened vs TB. This is the somewhat unspoken key to the offense and the reason any RB they've plugged in has done well. And of course Rodgers can't get hurt so he can't go back to running for his life like a few years ago.

 

 

I don't think the Packers' OL is an unspoken key. I think it was pretty well talked about as the strength of the Packers last year. Though I think that was a little bit overrated. I think MLF and Rodgers getting the ball out quickly made the line look better. But even so, it's more like 1 of 5 as Wagner wasn't the preferred starter at RT, Turner was. Which I also think was a bit of a problem vs more athletic, versatile edge rushers.

 

 

But the plan there should be the draft. That SHOULD be their top priority, but one they've been addressing the last couple of years.

 

They used a early 2nd round pick to draft Jenkins. He may become an All Pro next year. I think he's that good. Bahk, they just invested nearly 100 million into...which was always a little bit much IMO, but even without the benefit of hindsight, you have to keep your All Pro LT.

 

Then last year they added three OL in the draft, among them Runyan who played. And they've been developing Nijman the last couple years. It's possible they're really high on him and they think he's ready to be a starter. He was in the 99th percentile athletically for OL at the combine, so he's talented enough, strong enough, physical enough. Just very raw.

 

So they've got replacements along the interior. Wagner or even Lane Turner could be back on smaller deals and Turner I'd think would be for the league minimum if he wants to continue playing. He'd have to earn a roster spot, but I think it's worth giving him that shot.

 

Spoiler alert...

 

Round 1 - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas (only 8 pressures in ~350 snaps last year)

Round 4 - Josh Myers, C/G, Ohio State

 

 

I'm a big fan of Myers. He's a big, physical center, but I thought he moved pretty well also. His scouting profiles suggest he's more of a gap scheme type guy, but he looked plenty athletic enough to play in out zone/hybrid scheme.

 

 

Not super excited about Cosmi as he kinda sounds like Spriggs to me. Very good athlete, not a real big frame. But he's certainly a much better prospect and more established.

 

 

I've mentioned this before, but I think Spencer Brown from UNI has a chance to force his way into the 1st round at the combine. Given his size, physical ability, the only knock against him was the level of competition, but the scouts raved about him after the Sr. Bowl practices as he dominated many big school DL.

 

He offers a ton of upside and could cement the right side for a long time.

 

Mayfield, Jenkins are also possibilities there. And I could see Gutey moving up if someone like Darrisaw starts to slip. With 10 picks this year, I'd imagine we'd move up a couple of times. Trading up for Darrisaw would mean he fell in the draft for whatever reason and we'd still likely need to move up 9-10 spots, but above all else, finding a really good tackle has to be the top priority for this team this off-season.

 

 

I think that's why people are talking about Aaron Jones and JJ Watt and even Gillmore. The assumption that the Packers will use a good chunk of their draft capital to address the OL.

 

 

The coaching staff seems to have done a very good job keeping this OL playing at a high level, even protecting Turner at RT this past year. So I've got faith that they could coach up two rookies and start them this year. Even if it's just for the first month of the season while Bahk works to come back from that ACL tear.

[FVBrewerFan]

Has anyone seen an article that walks through what extensions for Rodgers and Adams would look like, and how much that would potentially lower the team cap for 2021? Seems like that would be better use of the Packers beat writers time, rather than tell us Linsley isn't likely to return. Something we've all known for weeks if not months.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

[PeaveyFury]

Probably a bad deal for both sides, as that's likely a team that was pretty bad last year and has cap space. Watt would be a fool at this point in his career to JUST go to the highest bidder.

[OldHeidelberg]

If Silverstein has any insider info on the Watt hopes it's only because the Packers are giving him the narrative they want since they know Packer fans are very interested in bringing him here. It could be the Packers inquired but decided the price for a 32 year old player was too high. Yes the cap plays into that but the Packers have stayed out of the top tier FA market I think since the Joe Johnson debacle, they seem to like the 2nd wave guys, even Pickett and Woodson and were guys signed later in the process. Another thing that I don't know if I have seen discussed is they may not be too keen about extending Adams a year early to create cap space. Considering the season he had not a great time for an extension when you can wait a year and see how things fall.

 

 

They just spent nearly 200 million the off-season before last.

 

Also, I would argue Watt's more along the lines of a Charles Woodson signing than a "top tier" FA.

 

With regard to Adams, I'd be shocked if they don't extend him this year. He'll definitely have the leverage...both coming off the season he just came off of, but also having that nearly 17 million dollar cap hit that they'll want to cut by about 66 pct, but I still think it gets done. I'd guess it's probably one of their top priorities right now. Adams and then trying to extend or restructure Rodgers deal.

 

Yes they have spent much more on FA's under Gutes and it has paid off, I meant they have stayed away from the guys who immediately come off the board, the pro bowler types or former high first round picks. I am not sure I ever heard of the Smith's until shortly before or after the Packers signed them although I think that did happen early in FA. I really want Watt but I suspect he is going to get more than the Packers are comfortable with, but maybe the reports of Clev/Pitt being out means he won't get as much as I think. I think Woodson was different, he was younger and still in his prime but for whatever reason NFL teams had soured on him as a FA.

 

You may be right on Adams, the surprise cap decrease may force the early extension. But if they can make it work without doing that, basically letting all the FA's go and only sign bargain guys, that would seem more how the Packers do business than kicking large amounts of money for players this year onto future caps. They probably haven't forgotten Jordy blowing his knee out before he started his extension and Adams would demand a lot of guaranteed money right now. To be clear I am of the opinion the Packers should kick the money down the road and make a run, I am tired of playoff exits. I just don't think they will do it on the scale that is needed right now to make some moves we want like Watt.

[pacopete4]

Yes, I can't blame JJ if he grabs a boatload of cash. But then I also don't want to hear him whine when/if it doesn't work out and he's stuck on another losing team that doesn't really have a chance at winning a Super Bowl.

[GAME05]

It was always safe to assume that Watt would get bigger offers than the Packers would probably be willing to pay. If you're a not-as-sure SB team like Miami or Cleveland, more money is their only real card to play. And heck, maybe he already has his destination team chosen and all these rumors are being released by his agent just to up the offer from that team. I'm surprised Pittsburg is out, but with Rothlisberger retiring maybe after next season maybe that means Watt is looking for a longer-term end-my-career-here type of deal with more guarantees.

[Mr Southpaw]

Yes, I can't blame JJ if he grabs a boatload of cash. But then I also don't want to hear him whine when/if it doesn't work out and he's stuck on another losing team that doesn't really have a chance at winning a Super Bowl.

 

He could make up the money easy with Wisconsin indorsements. Save big money at Menards.

[homer]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

 

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this.

[tmwiese55]

Or it is real but from a team he doesn't want to play for without a title chance. But, get that out and maybe it moves a contending team from say 8ish up to 10-12 area and then that's good enough.

 

ETA: agree with the below. similar to Brewers offseasons, best to sit back and not worry about daily clickbait stuff. just wait and see

Edited February 25, 2021 by tmwiese55

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

 

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this.

 

All I know is that I've grown weary of J.J. Watt drama. I suppose it gives the talking heads something to talk about without the combine going on, though.

[HiAndTight]

 

Yes they have spent much more on FA's under Gutes and it has paid off, I meant they have stayed away from the guys who immediately come off the board, the pro bowler types or former high first round picks. I am not sure I ever heard of the Smith's until shortly before or after the Packers signed them although I think that did happen early in FA. I really want Watt but I suspect he is going to get more than the Packers are comfortable with, but maybe the reports of Clev/Pitt being out means he won't get as much as I think. I think Woodson was different, he was younger and still in his prime but for whatever reason NFL teams had soured on him as a FA.

 

 

They signed Za'Darius Smith to a deal almost immediately as Free Agency started. Like 12 PM and they signed Amos and Preston Smith the 1st day.

 

Amos was probably the biggest name to Packers fans...having been a Bear, but Za'Darius Smith was big name, as was Preston Smith. Two young guys who had both had success, but were still just 26? But more important than how well known they were, is the contract. Giving 4/66 three years ago to Za'Darius and 4/56 to Preston, as well as the 4/40 to a safety, those were all big time, marquee signings by the Packers.

 

You may be right on Adams, the surprise cap decrease may force the early extension. But if they can make it work without doing that, basically letting all the FA's go and only sign bargain guys, that would seem more how the Packers do business than kicking large amounts of money for players this year onto future caps. They probably haven't forgotten Jordy blowing his knee out before he started his extension and Adams would demand a lot of guaranteed money right now. To be clear I am of the opinion the Packers should kick the money down the road and make a run, I am tired of playoff exits. I just don't think they will do it on the scale that is needed right now to make some moves we want like Watt.

 

Gutekunst has already said they're going to need to push cap hits off to the future. Use the "credit card," I believe was the term.

 

Adams is still just 28 years old, so I just can't envision a scenario in which they go into this season with him eating up 17 million in cap space. Gutekunst has shown he's willing to be more aggressive. He's too good, too important and the Packers are too close. They can afford to spend the cash on the up front signing bonus, so I don't think that'll be a problem.

 

I don't know if they'll sign Watt or if they'll let him walk, but it does seem like they're going to try very hard to clear room and create cap space.

 

 

If Watt is REALLY getting 15-16 million dollar offers, good luck. He's not worth that in this particular off-season. Maybe in a normal one, but not this year.

[HiAndTight]

Has anyone seen an article that walks through what extensions for Rodgers and Adams would look like, and how much that would potentially lower the team cap for 2021? Seems like that would be better use of the Packers beat writers time, rather than tell us Linsley isn't likely to return. Something we've all known for weeks if not months.

 

 

I agree. Talk to a cap specialist like Andrew Brandt and do a story like that. I would think on the aggressive side you could save 20-25 million from the cap next year without getting TOO crazy. Adams from ~17 to 7 and Rodgers from 37 to 20 seems reasonable...but I'd like to hear someone who knows the cap better than searching spotrac and guessing.

 

And the more I think about Linsley...it should have been obvious at the start of the season he wasn't coming back. Almost 30, multiple picks used on Centers, they didn't give him a 2-3 year extension when he was playing great during 2019 or even after 2018.

 

 

We all recognized that Gutey is going to operate differently than Thompson, but giving 3rd contracts to offensive linemen SHOULD be rare and reserved for situations like Bahktiari. All Pro's who aren't 30 yet. I thought that should even extend to someone like Bulaga last year given where Rodgers is in his career, but that proved to be a very smart move(not bringing him back).

 

 

Honestly, most of these guys don't seem like they offer any insight into the team. They are just fans with a bigger platform usually.

[HiAndTight]

It was always safe to assume that Watt would get bigger offers than the Packers would probably be willing to pay. If you're a not-as-sure SB team like Miami or Cleveland, more money is their only real card to play. And heck, maybe he already has his destination team chosen and all these rumors are being released by his agent just to up the offer from that team. I'm surprised Pittsburg is out, but with Rothlisberger retiring maybe after next season maybe that means Watt is looking for a longer-term end-my-career-here type of deal with more guarantees.

 

 

 

I'm not surprised Pittsburgh is out, but I am pretty surprised that the Browns are out.

 

 

But man, 15-16 million per? That's absolutely insane. Not saying he wasn't worth that last season, but the number of players who are likely going to be available, I think that money could end up signing 3 really good veterans.

 

It'd have to be something like 4/60 with 16 guaranteed and a cap hit no higher than 6-7 next year and then something they could get out of after that. But if it's a firmer 15/16 million per year. A 2-3 year deal, then I'd say "good luck JJ, have fun playing for the Jaguars," or whoever that team is that can afford him. It's tough for me to see what contender that's NOT Cleveland that would be a good fit.

 

I guess Indy would be a good fit and they've got Buckner up front. That'd be a dominant DL. SD has cap room with Herbert cheap. Watt could give them the type of defense with Derwin James coming back, Bosa, Ingram...that could be dominant like SF was in 2019.

 

Then I guess the Cardinals could be a decent fit and I'd throw the Broncos in there, but Lock is too be of a question mark.

[HiAndTight]

Rumors floating that J.J. Watt has received an offer from an unknown team in the $15-16 million per year range. Safe to say that the unknown team is not the Packers. That would be a terrible signing.

 

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this.

 

All I know is that I've grown weary of J.J. Watt drama. I suppose it gives the talking heads something to talk about without the combine going on, though.

 

 

In fairness to him, it's only been about a week. We're just eager to see a HOF'er from Wisconsin who's still playing at an elite level sign with the Packers.

 

 

I originally thought the longer he went without signing, the better it'd be for the Packers chances...and then when the Browns and Steelers dropped out, I thought it was just about a given. I still hope it is, but I hope they're not dumb enough to give him 15 million per year. He was great last year and he is pretty much a perfect fit in Green Bay, but there are a lot of moves they can make at that price.

 

 

Hell, sign Leonard Williams if you're going to spend that much on a DE. Williams doesn't have the Wisconsin connections, but he's a younger player and he's also a near perfect fit who can play the run and get after the QB.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In fairness to him, it's only been about a week. We're just eager to see a HOF'er from Wisconsin who's still playing at an elite level sign with the Packers.

 

 

I originally thought the longer he went without signing, the better it'd be for the Packers chances...and then when the Browns and Steelers dropped out, I thought it was just about a given. I still hope it is, but I hope they're not dumb enough to give him 15 million per year. He was great last year and he is pretty much a perfect fit in Green Bay, but there are a lot of moves they can make at that price.

 

 

Hell, sign Leonard Williams if you're going to spend that much on a DE. Williams doesn't have the Wisconsin connections, but he's a younger player and he's also a near perfect fit who can play the run and get after the QB.

 

Or just sign Jurrell Casey or re-up on a cheap deal with Damon Harrison, then you can probably get two other good veteran players for the same money Watt is going to cost by himself.

 

Personally, I'm indifferent to Watt as a Packer. Yeah, it would be a fun "local kid comes home" story, but people are making it bigger than it probably is. He would be a step up from Lowry, but not a "4X the salary" one. I think a lot of fans think that Watt is the 2015 version, and that is no longer the case. Not even close.

[Underachiever]

SD has cap room with Herbert cheap.

No! Just No! SD has gotten all the baseball FA this year, I won't allow them taking the football ones as well.

 

(I guess they aren't SD anymore, are they? Old habits die hard.)

[adambr2]

In fairness to him, it's only been about a week. We're just eager to see a HOF'er from Wisconsin who's still playing at an elite level sign with the Packers.

 

 

I originally thought the longer he went without signing, the better it'd be for the Packers chances...and then when the Browns and Steelers dropped out, I thought it was just about a given. I still hope it is, but I hope they're not dumb enough to give him 15 million per year. He was great last year and he is pretty much a perfect fit in Green Bay, but there are a lot of moves they can make at that price.

 

 

Hell, sign Leonard Williams if you're going to spend that much on a DE. Williams doesn't have the Wisconsin connections, but he's a younger player and he's also a near perfect fit who can play the run and get after the QB.

 

Or just sign Jurrell Casey or re-up on a cheap deal with Damon Harrison, then you can probably get two other good veteran players for the same money Watt is going to cost by himself.

 

Personally, I'm indifferent to Watt as a Packer. Yeah, it would be a fun "local kid comes home" story, but people are making it bigger than it probably is. He would be a step up from Lowry, but not a "4X the salary" one. I think a lot of fans think that Watt is the 2015 version, and that is no longer the case. Not even close.

 

He was still a top 10 player at his position as he has been every season. PFF graded him as an 85.5 and 7th best edge player in 2020. It's true that he's not the 2014 and 2015 player who was in a different stratosphere than every other defensive player but he is still a jillion times better than Dean Lowry.