Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[OldSchoolSnapper]

McGinn is awful. He clearly does have some vendetta with Aaron Rodgers and that's not fanboy speak, it is obvious that something happened with those two that has made McGinn's need to grind an axe insufferable.

[HiAndTight]

I've long thought that despite their jobs covering the NFL, long-term beat guys like Silverstein don't really seem to get the cap intricacies much.

 

 

No, I don't think they do. I don't think the team would be interested in him if they didn't believe they could sign him.

 

Perhaps they were hoping he'd take a discount to play in GB, I don't know, but I believe he also said something about Watt playing in Pitt...so he's either just focused on the Packers or that doesn't make any sense.

 

 

I really wish they'd just set the damn cap and everyone could stop speculating though.

[HiAndTight]

McGinn is awful. He clearly does have some vendetta with Aaron Rodgers and that's not fanboy speak, it is obvious that something happened with those two that has made McGinn's need to grind an axe insufferable.

 

 

I always enjoyed McGinn's articles that focus mostly on what scouts said about players, the player division rankings, the # of blue players, etc...basically when he relays what experts have to say.

 

When he goes with his own opinions, they're often just bad takes. The one that stands out the most was the "the Packers are a 10 win team without Aaron Rodgers," in an article that was meant to praise Thompson. He went down the next week, they struggled with the likes of Senaca Wallace and finally Matt Flynn "saved" them and we understood what it was like to be a Bears fan for half a season.

[HiAndTight]

Silverstein straight up says that the Packers' cap issues will keep them from signing JJ Watt.

 

This SI article doesn't seem to feel the Packers would have any trouble finding cap room to fit Watt, if that's something they really want to do.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/.amp/news/money-isnt-issue-for-packers-watt

 

 

They have Preston Smith restructuring. He's pretty much the exact type of player I would expect to be on the market and forced to sign for ~3-4 million this year. Maybe a Kirksey-type deal from last year.

 

That seems like it'll be one of the most difficult decisions for the Packers this year. You have Gary and it seems obvious that he needs to step up and become a legitimate #1 edge threat for the defense to take the next step(that and addressing the DL outside of Clark and Keke). But do you really want Garvin or a likely mid-round pick to be your #3 option when these guys usually play at most 60 pct of the snaps? It's almost a starting position, that 3rd edge rusher. Far more important than a 2nd MLB'er.

 

 

And Tom mentions 'guys they need to re-sign', as if he thinks their bigger UFAs are going to be coming back, which I think all of us have long accepted isn't happening.

 

Could be talking about guys like Tonyan, Lazard and MVS, though all three should be pretty cheap this next year.

 

If he IS referencing Linsley and Jones, then I'm not sure anyone should be putting any more weight into his words than anyone else's. It'd be great to have them both back, but they couldn't work anything out with Jones and didn't even talk to Linsley.

 

I could envision a scenario in which Jones comes back, but it's pretty unlikely. Maybe they tag him, maybe he goes out and doesn't get the offers he was hoping for. A Melvin Gordon situation, I don't know. He'd have to want to come back after the team didn't meet his asking price. I'm guessing he just ends up in a Jags uniform hating life for 3 years until he's cut at which point AJ Dillon is about to be a FA and fans are on here clamoring to bring Jones back. The circle of being a fan of the NFL. I can't think of a worse situation for a RB to be a FA than this year.

 

 

I'm also curious to hear what they do with the practice squad and the roster next year. 17 games and I haven't heard if they're going to go with the 16 game limit for the players, how that's going to impact the cap this year. 17 games is just going to make depth that much more important. The extended practice squad and the 3 week IR seemed to be a really good thing for players' health this year as well as for teams like the Packers who like to focus more on developing talent through the draft and UDFA signings.

[CheezWizHed]

Cordarrelle Patterson is a FA and he just makes WAY too much sense for the Packers to go after. Solves the PR/KR situation, becomes the 3rd RB, becomes the main guy on jet sweeps (and should get it often in the formation too!).

 

I'm thinking he might be my second favorite FA target this offseason.

[PinaMadness]

McGinn is awful. He clearly does have some vendetta with Aaron Rodgers and that's not fanboy speak, it is obvious that something happened with those two that has made McGinn's need to grind an axe insufferable.

 

 

I always enjoyed McGinn's articles that focus mostly on what scouts said about players, the player division rankings, the # of blue players, etc...basically when he relays what experts have to say.

 

When he goes with his own opinions, they're often just bad takes. The one that stands out the most was the "the Packers are a 10 win team without Aaron Rodgers," in an article that was meant to praise Thompson. He went down the next week, they struggled with the likes of Senaca Wallace and finally Matt Flynn "saved" them and we understood what it was like to be a Bears fan for half a season.

I remember that too. That opinion belongs in the Hot Take Hall of Fame.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He actually said they were an 11-5 team. In his defense that was with Wallace starting. Wallace didn't last 2 games though. He went on IR after that game Rodgers went down.

 

I liked McGinn for a long time. But like I said, I'm convinced Rodgers did or said something to get under his skin, because the guy won't let it go.

[HiAndTight]

Cordarrelle Patterson is a FA and he just makes WAY too much sense for the Packers to go after. Solves the PR/KR situation, becomes the 3rd RB, becomes the main guy on jet sweeps (and should get it often in the formation too!).

 

I'm thinking he might be my second favorite FA target this offseason.

 

 

Yeah, I love that idea. I've thrown his name out. Another is Curtis Samuel. I don't think we need a #1 like Godwin or Allen Robinson...as great as either would be. I'd love to see someone like Patterson. Someone who's elusive can play in the backfield. There are quite a few players who I think could give the Packers' offense a big lift.

 

John Ross is another guy. People scoff because he has been a bust as a WR'er(though he did start to break out, then got hurt and went into the dog house).

 

But Patterson is a great fit. He's likely going to be about half the price of someone like Samuel and he's actually played RB unlike Ross. But we should treat that position like a starter given how much better the offense looks when we have someone who's at least somewhat a threat in that role.

[HiAndTight]

I've long thought that despite their jobs covering the NFL, long-term beat guys like Silverstein don't really seem to get the cap intricacies much.

 

Speaking of which, ESPN just had their "experts" predict where Aaron Jones will play next year.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30839605/answering-2021-nfl-offseason-biggest-questions-experts-predict-super-bowl-winner-interesting-teams-more

 

Rob Demovsky has him going to...the Steelers. Probably among the least likely destinations for him. They didn't want to pay a better back(at the time) in Bell and now in a worse situation than the Packers and apparently trying to push Big Ben out, they're going to go all in on Aaron Jones?

 

The majority of the rest seem to believe that he will end up back in Green Bay on the franchise tag...which I think is the most reasonable/likely way he ends up back in Green Bay next year. More likely than testing the market and coming back and signing a cheaper deal.

 

Even the writers that got it "right" in my opinion, the ones that have him signing with the Dolphins or Jets...their logic is flawed. It's because they're going to re-sign Linsley instead. I think most of us agree if they re-sign one of the two, it's more likely to be Jones than Linsley.

 

I don't think they'd extend Linsley even if the Cap wasn't going to be much lower than expected. He'll turn 30 next year and they've loaded up on interior linemen.

[PeaveyFury]

The majority of the rest seem to believe that he will end up back in Green Bay on the franchise tag...which I think is the most reasonable/likely way he ends up back in Green Bay next year. More likely than testing the market and coming back and signing a cheaper deal.

 

I haven't verified it, but I saw somewhere along the line that part of the 'benefit' of this year's cap situation is that the tag values dropped significantly, and the RB franchise tag was expected to only be $8m or so. They'd still need to rework the cap to make that happen, but a one year, $8m deal seems fairly ideal for Green Bay. No one is thinking Jones won't be productive and worth that type of contract next year, it's the middle to end of the 2nd contract that has most teams hesitant to give out big money 2nd deals to RBs.

 

1/$8m also gives the Packers a legit possibility of a tag and trade as well. That didn't seem plausible a month or two ago, even if it may be the ideal overall result.

[HiAndTight]

The majority of the rest seem to believe that he will end up back in Green Bay on the franchise tag...which I think is the most reasonable/likely way he ends up back in Green Bay next year. More likely than testing the market and coming back and signing a cheaper deal.

 

I haven't verified it, but I saw somewhere along the line that part of the 'benefit' of this year's cap situation is that the tag values dropped significantly, and the RB franchise tag was expected to only be $8m or so. They'd still need to rework the cap to make that happen, but a one year, $8m deal seems fairly ideal for Green Bay. No one is thinking Jones won't be productive and worth that type of contract next year, it's the middle to end of the 2nd contract that has most teams hesitant to give out big money 2nd deals to RBs.

 

1/$8m also gives the Packers a legit possibility of a tag and trade as well. That didn't seem plausible a month or two ago, even if it may be the ideal overall result.

 

Edit-I did also see that the Franchise number for RB's was going to be about 8 million next year. I don't quite understand how that's possible or why the cap would play that big of a role on it as it's the average of the top 5 backs from the previous season as I understand it, but this article states that the tag will in fact be about 8 million for a RB. That certainly changes the equation quite a bit.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-franchise-transition-tag-primer-who-are-the-no-brainers-debatable-candi

 

 

There are so many unknowns, but even with AJ Dillon, a guy like Aaron Jones is so important for this offense. He just adds an element that Dillon doesn't. The way he's able to catch the ball out of the backfield and run routes. It's a huge aspect of this offense. Dillion looked pretty comfortable making the routine catches on swing routes or screens, but I don't see him running a wheel route and laying out for a ball or lining up vs a CB and going up on a 50/50 ball and taking it away like Jones did vs the Lions, shortly after he hit them with a back-breaking 75-yard run right out of the half in a 3 point game.

 

I just read another article though that had the Packers as one of the favorites to land Stephon Gillmore. While I think that's just as unlikely as other suggestions, what would you give up to get one year of Gillmore? He'd cost 7.3 million for one year...I think, with the Pats eating the rest of the cap hit. Would we be better off spending on Jones...or Gillmore? Gilmore would likely cost a 3rd round pick and possibly another pick and is going to be 31 years old. He's still elite and as the #2 would be an enormous upgrade. But you're giving up a premium pick and precious cap space.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You need more than one RB and it's become apparent the Packers require all their RBs to be able to line up at WR. But I've heard that they think Dillon is much more capable of that than the perception of him implies.

[PeaveyFury]

One additional thought on the RB situation/math now that a tag deal for Jones is much more modest than initially thought: I think a lot of people (myself included in them) thought that they'd make an effort to bring Williams back to pair with Dillon. I have no idea what his estimated FMV is in this odd offseason, but I'd say he'd look for a 3/$9-12m deal or so? If the cost of Jones instead would be $8m, the real 'added cost' of tagging Jones would only be $4-5 million of excess in 2021.

 

It just seems waaaaay more plausible today than it did a week or two ago....

[GAME05]

I'd race to give NE a 3rd rounder for Gillmore. Though I figure that would have to be a 3+ just to best anyone else who'd offer a 3rd rounder.

[pacopete4]

There are just so many talented backs that can be inserted pretty much right away. Go with Dillon and draft some guys and do some waiver diving to find your depth. Don't spend money on this position.

[CheezWizHed]

You need more than one RB and it's become apparent the Packers require all their RBs to be able to line up at WR. But I've heard that they think Dillon is much more capable of that than the perception of him implies.

 

Dillon actually did this quite often (for the amount of snaps he was in the game), but mostly as a decoy. Not sure what sort of route tree he is capable of, but he certainly seems comfortable doing it.

[PeaveyFury]

There are just so many talented backs that can be inserted pretty much right away. Go with Dillon and draft some guys and do some waiver diving to find your depth. Don't spend money on this position.

 

I really like the idea of a tag-and-trade as a result. I think you'd find immense value in moving a productive RB on that type of contract to another team.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There are just so many talented backs that can be inserted pretty much right away. Go with Dillon and draft some guys and do some waiver diving to find your depth. Don't spend money on this position.

 

I really like the idea of a tag-and-trade as a result. I think you'd find immense value in moving a productive RB on that type of contract to another team.

 

This is the direction I think they will go, and I've thought that for awhile. The revelation that the tag value will likely be lower solidifies the idea.

[monkeyman343434]

What are the chances Jones sits out if he's tagged on 1year/$8M? I feel like there's a better than 50/50 chance he sits out than plays on that contract.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

What are the chances Jones sits out if he's tagged on 1year/$8M? I feel like there's a better than 50/50 chance he sits out than plays on that contract.

 

I doubt it, especially after seeing what a disaster Le'veon Bell's career turned into after going that route.

[PeaveyFury]

What are the chances Jones sits out if he's tagged on 1year/$8M? I feel like there's a better than 50/50 chance he sits out than plays on that contract.

 

Pretty heavy decision for him, I'd suppose. One one hand, he has to know that with a cap crunch this year, he's faaaaar more likely to get a bigger deal next offseason. On the other, the lifespan of RB's is short and fleeting.

 

With Rosenhaus as his agent, you'd have to think it would at least be discussed, though....

[CheezWizHed]

I don't see Jones as that type of person (despite the intentional marketing campaign with the flashy sunglasses). Plus it isn't like $8M is chump change.

[Sixtofan]

Agree. I am sure his agent will discuss it but $8 million is a lot of money to throw away for someone who really hasn’t seemed like that type of person.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, he saw first hand that McGinn's incorrect hot takes basically cost him his credibility.

 

But, I really think that the media guys are buying in way to much to the 'Packers have an insurmountable cap disaster on their hands' that they seem to be furthering. As that cap number bleeds upwards from the league, the situation is less dire.

 

And Tom mentions 'guys they need to re-sign', as if he thinks their bigger UFAs are going to be coming back, which I think all of us have long accepted isn't happening. They're not resigning Jones. They've made no attempt to sign Linsley. If they resign King, it's to a far lesser deal than he may otherwise have received. Beyond that, they're not re-signing anyone that uses significant cap room.

 

They can sign Watt if they want to. The cap won't keep them from doing so. If he's implying that the team doesn't want to, that's one thing. But I didn't read his tweet that way.

 

Of note, Silverstein tweeted a story today (written by Pete Dougherty of their shared packernews.com site) noting that they could sign Watt if they choose to go after him over Linsley or Jones. Which is what the rest of us have known for literally weeks.

 

You can debate the merits of letting Linsley walk (and obviously we have with Jones), but the Packers have made their intentions with Linsley fairly clear since they've not talked extension with him at all, reportedly. I have no idea why the idea they'd let him walk would seem to be surprising to guys who are paid to cover the team.

[tmwiese55]

Assuming Linsley is gone and Wagner is already been released. You've lost 2/5 of one of your strongest units while Bak is still recovering from a serious injury and could miss the start of the year. What is the plan there, I know they did well with the one backup this year but this would need a lot of attention and we saw what happened vs TB. This is the somewhat unspoken key to the offense and the reason any RB they've plugged in has done well. And of course Rodgers can't get hurt so he can't go back to running for his life like a few years ago.