Packer 2021 Team Discussion (Rodgers Out Vs. Chiefs)

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, I'm struggling with the revisionist history approach of saying what Reggie would be today. We honestly don't know what he would be.

 

And why are we arguing about this again???

[OldSchoolSnapper]

"Friends I’m not sure who still needs to hear this but cutting Preston, Lowry, Kirksey & Wagner, along with restructuring Rodgers, Adams & Bakhtiari is the STARTING POINT to get under the cap. That doesn’t include signing or re-signing any free agents. GB has serious work to do."

 

 

Odd, borderline lazy reporting by Herman. If you assume a moderate decrease in the cap and factor in the Packers' adjustments, they're about $20 million over the cap AFTER Bakh's restructuring yesterday. Restructuring Rodgers and extending Adams ALONE would free up $23 million, getting them below the cap. The four cuts he notes would free up an additional $21.25 million, putting the Packers at $24.25 BELOW the cap. Stating that that would just be the "STARTING POINT to get under the cap" is literally factually incorrect.

 

I pointed a lot of this out to him in the most civil of ways and he blocked me. I was kinda shocked honestly.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He was not an interior lineman.

 

Just not true. Philly literally lined him up at DT regularly because every football coach knows that a player generating pressure up the middle is more valuable and disruptive than an end. He played on the end in GB due to their personnel and system, but he was every bit an interior lineman.

[FVBrewerFan]

He was not an interior lineman.

 

Just not true. Philly literally lined him up at DT regularly because every football coach knows that a player generating pressure up the middle is more valuable and disruptive than an end. He played on the end in GB due to their personnel and system, but he was every bit an interior lineman.

 

Yes, THAT is definitely true, he did play DT at times for Philly. If we're talking about Reggie as a Packer though, 100% DE.

[LouisEly]

"Friends I’m not sure who still needs to hear this but cutting Preston, Lowry, Kirksey & Wagner, along with restructuring Rodgers, Adams & Bakhtiari is the STARTING POINT to get under the cap. That doesn’t include signing or re-signing any free agents. GB has serious work to do."

 

 

Odd, borderline lazy reporting by Herman. If you assume a moderate decrease in the cap and factor in the Packers' adjustments, they're about $20 million over the cap AFTER Bakh's restructuring yesterday. Restructuring Rodgers and extending Adams ALONE would free up $23 million, getting them below the cap. The four cuts he notes would free up an additional $21.25 million, putting the Packers at $24.25 BELOW the cap. Stating that that would just be the "STARTING POINT to get under the cap" is literally factually incorrect.

Right now their top 51 sits at $202.3M, and they carried over $3.75M from 2020. Assuming Kirksey and Preston Smith get cut, that puts their top 51 at $190.25M. They'll need about $8.75M to sign their draft picks; applying the $3.75M carryover against that, let's say an additional $5M, putting their top 51 at ~$195.25M. The lowest rumor I've heard is $180M, so they would need to restructure an additional $15M at most, of which Rodgers and Adams would take care of. If Lowry gets cut, it's only ~$12.5M.

 

If they need additional space for Watt, they could convert Z-Smith's salary and bonuses to a signing bonus and perhaps extend him another year; that would clear up at least $8M more.

[balsamlaker]

Everyone wants to compare Watt to Reggie White or Peppers. I will put Calais Campbell out there as a current comp. Even if GB could get Watt to agree to a Campbell-like contract, I am not sure if they could fit him in. Obviously COVID has changed the cap, but for those that like to lead the "let's go all in" parade, the current cap situation shows GB has been doing that more than you think. Give the team some credit, they hit on a some of the free agents (Z. Smith, Amos, etc.) and created some contracts for P. Smith, Kirksey, Lowry, etc. that they can get out of if production does not justify.

[adambr2]

"Friends I’m not sure who still needs to hear this but cutting Preston, Lowry, Kirksey & Wagner, along with restructuring Rodgers, Adams & Bakhtiari is the STARTING POINT to get under the cap. That doesn’t include signing or re-signing any free agents. GB has serious work to do."

 

 

Odd, borderline lazy reporting by Herman. If you assume a moderate decrease in the cap and factor in the Packers' adjustments, they're about $20 million over the cap AFTER Bakh's restructuring yesterday. Restructuring Rodgers and extending Adams ALONE would free up $23 million, getting them below the cap. The four cuts he notes would free up an additional $21.25 million, putting the Packers at $24.25 BELOW the cap. Stating that that would just be the "STARTING POINT to get under the cap" is literally factually incorrect.

 

I pointed a lot of this out to him in the most civil of ways and he blocked me. I was kinda shocked honestly.

 

I assume you're talking about Andy, not me.

[nate82]

I think White would be more like Akiem Hicks in how he would be played. Not comparing Hicks to White just comparing how Hicks is used now is how White would be used now. Hicks has played both as a edge rusher and a DT in the Bears 3-4 system.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The best comp I could give Reggie White to today's lineman is that he'd basically be Aaron Donald in Suh's frame...essentially an unblockable 300lb lineman that could move like a typical 260-lb rush end. White ran a 4.6 40-yard dash as a 300 lb lineman during his prime - that's still essentially unheard of 30 years later.

 

Line him up anywhere in any system and he'd be a perennial 15-20 sack lineman in this league, probably even more considering how much more pass-heavy the NFL is now compared to during White's prime USFL/late 80's heyday.

[pacopete4]

Reggie White would be elite in coverage in today's game. - Mike Pettine

[PeaveyFury]

Seeing some vague reports that the Packers are showing 'initial interest' in Watt, so there's that.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Every time I see any article about the Packers it's the same "they have serious cap issues" and I want to just start banging my head on the keyboard. That issue is being waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overblown. There are a handful of obvious moves to make cap space. Then there are the ones they clearly have a plan for that nobody else has thought of.

 

If the Packers really want JJ Watt and there's mutual interest, it's going to happen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Every time I see any article about the Packers it's the same "they have serious cap issues" and I want to just start banging my head on the keyboard. That issue is being waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overblown. There are a handful of obvious moves to make cap space. Then there are the ones they clearly have a plan for that nobody else has thought of.

 

If the Packers really want JJ Watt and there's mutual interest, it's going to happen.

 

I think everyone who is banging the "cap issues" drum is living in denial that this is no longer Ted Thompson's (RIP) team. You are 100% correct regarding Watt. If he wants to be in Green Bay, and is willing to play for a salary commensurate with his current value, it's likely that he'll be a Packer.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The cap problems angle keeps continuously skipping over one major thing too. Many of the teams with space, and some without, have huge expenses due. Dak, Godwin, Allen Robinson, Schuster, etc.

 

Aaron Jones is a FA, but the Packers have AJ Dillon.

 

The most significant player the Packers are going to lose is a center. His on-roster replacement is a $1.5 million hit.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Until the actual 2021 cap is publicly disclosed by the NFL, probably in about another month, cap issues and how to sort them out isn't worth speculating. Recent stories indicate rosier scenarios than $175M (good for the entire league), but it won't be close to what the presumed annual 5-10% cap increase has been pretty much every season until the pandemic hit. What I mean by that is the 2021 cap won't be close to $215M and the 2022 cap won't be close to $235M like some rosier projections had projected them to be around this time last year before COVID blew everything up in terms of gameday revenues. The extra regular season game and updated TV contracts will definitely help things, but even the NFL needs more certainty on being able to sell out stadiums 17 weeks a year to keep their revenues headed north. Because of that, many teams are going to have tough decisions in 2021 no matter if the cap is set to be $175, 185, or even equivalent to last year's cap at $198M....Packers included.

 

As others have pointed out, the advantage GB has is the fact they have some flexibility on contract restructuring and have options already on their roster to replace significant free agent losses (meaning they can replenish through the draft and bargain FA deals instead of chasing top end free agents). Also, GB's current cap situation at least includes a full roster of players under contract for 2021....IMO that's a better spot to be in than many other teams who are close but still under that hypothetical cap number with far fewer than 50 signed players. Specific to how this works for bringing Watt to the Packers, let's see where the cap actually winds up and how some of the other contract restructuring likely to happen with some of GB's marquee players unfolds. They may also have some flexibility to slap a franchise tag on someone if they really want to keep them around another season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

As a followup to some previous discussion in this post RE: Watt, more food for thought:

 

Z. Smith was the 2nd-ranked edge rusher across the entire NFL in terms of how frequently he was double teamed in 2020. Guess who was ranked #1 - J.J. Watt. Next season GB could line those two up next to each other on passing downs with Gary flying off the other edge and mixing Kenny Clark in the middle...and still have 7 other players in coverage or available to blitz.

[LouisEly]

As a followup to some previous discussion in this post RE: Watt, more food for thought:

 

Z. Smith was the 2nd-ranked edge rusher across the entire NFL in terms of how frequently he was double teamed in 2020. Guess who was ranked #1 - J.J. Watt. Next season GB could line those two up next to each other on passing downs with Gary flying off the other edge and mixing Kenny Clark in the middle...and still have 7 other players in coverage or available to blitz.

I read something somewhere that this is the general philosophy of their new DC - he likes to have four great pass rushers and drop seven in coverage. That would be four great pass rushers.

[LouisEly]

Until the actual 2021 cap is publicly disclosed by the NFL, probably in about another month, cap issues and how to sort them out isn't worth speculating.

The league year starts on March 17th, and I'm pretty sure that teams have to be down to the cap number by that date. So my guess is either that the cap number will be released any day now, or that they are negotiating a soft cap for 2021 with the player's union.

[FVBrewerFan]

NFL salary cap is yet another thing where people seem to take extreme positions. Either it's some inpenetrable hard cap that you can't around, or it's somewhat easy to manipulate to get done whatever you want to get done. As with most things, the truth lies in the middle.

 

First, as Chorizo explained, it's really hard to take a strong position on anything since we don't even know what the cap looks like for 2021.

 

Secondly, yes, they can make moves to free up cap space. Bak was easy, that was the plan back when they signed his extension originally. P Smith and Kearsy getting cut are pretty easy decisions. Beyond that, the Packers are not entirely in control. It's not as easy as "just extend Rodgers and Adams." The players have to agree to those terms. It will take huge signing bonuses to extend Rodgers and Adams, and the players involved will have a large say on the definition of huge.

 

Assuming they can restructure both, which is far from a given, that's about it. There are no more magic moves they can make to free up cap space of any significance. That leaves a lot of "ifs" if the goal is signing Watt.

 

They can sign him IF the salary cap doesn't go down much this year, and IF they can restructure Rodgers/Adams, and then IF Watt actually want to come to GB, and at what cost. Not impossible by any means, but the dominoes need to fall right.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Until the actual 2021 cap is publicly disclosed by the NFL, probably in about another month, cap issues and how to sort them out isn't worth speculating.

The league year starts on March 17th, and I'm pretty sure that teams have to be down to the cap number by that date. So my guess is either that the cap number will be released any day now, or that they are negotiating a soft cap for 2021 with the player's union.

 

Last season, I believe the 2020 cap was formally announced on March 15, and the league year started on March 18thish? There typically isn't the angst about where the cap is because up until this season, the only question was always how much the cap would go up from the prior season, not how much it would be reduced. That meant far fewer veteran players/contracts for teams to be concerned with, even for teams that found themselves way over projected caps.

 

That being said, I'm pretty certain front offices have a much better idea where the cap is going to be set sooner than when it's publicly known. I'd also really hope the league is in steady contact with front offices right now because of this unique situation.

[PeaveyFury]

Assuming they can restructure both, which is far from a given, that's about it. There are no more magic moves they can make to free up cap space of any significance.

 

I guess it depends on the definition of significance, as you'd get another $4.25 from a Wagner cut and $3.3 from Lowry. Not as big as the others, but not insignificant, but also just IMO.

 

The only other really 'magic' thing they COULD do would be restructuring/extending Z, which would be substantial, and a lot of smaller stuff with guys like Amos and Turner could all add up to more room, but the big moves are the ones you noted.

 

A 'soft cap' would certainly open up a bajillion more options for them, though...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

NFL salary cap is yet another thing where people seem to take extreme positions. Either it's some inpenetrable hard cap that you can't around, or it's somewhat easy to manipulate to get done whatever you want to get done. As with most things, the truth lies in the middle.

 

First, as Chorizo explained, it's really hard to take a strong position on anything since we don't even know what the cap looks like for 2021.

 

Secondly, yes, they can make moves to free up cap space. Bak was easy, that was the plan back when they signed his extension originally. P Smith and Kearsy getting cut are pretty easy decisions. Beyond that, the Packers are not entirely in control. It's not as easy as "just extend Rodgers and Adams." The players have to agree to those terms. It will take huge signing bonuses to extend Rodgers and Adams, and the players involved will have a large say on the definition of huge.

 

Assuming they can restructure both, which is far from a given, that's about it. There are no more magic moves they can make to free up cap space of any significance. That leaves a lot of "ifs" if the goal is signing Watt.

 

They can sign him IF the salary cap doesn't go down much this year, and IF they can restructure Rodgers/Adams, and then IF Watt actually want to come to GB, and at what cost. Not impossible by any means, but the dominoes need to fall right.

 

Cutting Lowry (which would be likely if Watt is signed) would save $4.8 million if he's designated a post-June cut. That isn't insignificant. Wagner could be released, saving $4.25 million, although he proved his worth last season. Amos has a $6.5 million cap hit that could be restructured to reduce it. I would imagine Billy Turner and his $8.4 million cap hit could be either restructured, or perhaps he could be on the chopping block as well with Runyan playing well in limited action. None of these are huge chunks, but when combined it becomes significant. But, of course, depth suffers.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If Rodgers doesn't agree to a deal that frees up significant space, that's fine, but he can go pound sand about the FO not doing enough. Can't eat 1/4 of the cap and get you a defense buddy. That's sort of the rub for me. I know it's tricky to free up space, but I'm assuming it can be done because I'm assuming shuffling his money around is a given. If it's not, I think he's punching his ticket out of town after '21.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if they're not able to extend Adams this year. I'd have a hard time believing he wants to go into next season, after establishing himself at the best or 2nd best WR in the league, without a new deal.

[PeaveyFury]

Cutting Lowry (which would be likely if Watt is signed) would save $4.8 million if he's designated a post-June cut.

 

Though possibly interesting to the Packers, I don't know if they'd want to use the post- June 1 designation on him, as I think the cap hit actually counts against the Packers' cap until June 1, though he's technically a FA. My understanding of the rules on that are rusty, though. They'd probably want the salary relief sooner than later, even if it's at the expense of $1.5 million. I suppose he could be used as cap room for the draft class, though...

[PinaMadness]

Would Adams even want to come back if Rodgers is gone after next season? I wouldn't.