Arenado to the Cards

[homer]

I don't know what Holliday's splits were during only his time at Coors but his last season there he had a 997 OPS at home and 892 on the road. He was just a great hitter.

 

Am I expecting Arenado to have a sub 800 OPS? No. But I don't expect him to be over 900 either.

[adambr2]

I don't know what Holliday's splits were during only his time at Coors but his last season there he had a 997 OPS at home and 892 on the road. He was just a great hitter.

 

Am I expecting Arenado to have a sub 800 OPS? No. But I don't expect him to be over 900 either.

 

And the year before that he was 1.157 at home and .860 on the road, year before that 1.132 at home and .819 on the road. Then when he went to St. Louis he was. 922 and. 912 which was fairly comparable to most of his Colorado seasons.

 

Holliday was probably the better hitter but Arenado plays the more premium position and plays it extremely well. Arenado's defense is being glossed over, he is as good as it gets at 3rd and that gave him value in 2020 even when he didn't do much at the plate.

 

I don't know if he will be over a .900 OPS but if I'm betting on either over 900 or under 800 I'm taking the over.

 

Given what the Rockies are eating in salary, the Cardinals are on the hook for less years and less money per year than we owe Yelich on the new contract with him that everyone thought was just such a great deal for us. They got a lot better and I feel like a lot of us are just trying to downplay that to make us feel better about our offseason and team going forward.

[TURBO]

After reflecting, for me, I think part of the issue is that he went to the Cardinals... Had he went to the White Sox or even the Braves, I don't think it brings on the feelings of doom that it has for some.

 

It's the freaking Cardinals man, our arch rivalry. If this only works out well for them for the first 2 or 3 years of his deal, it is still ebnough to cause us many issues over that same time period.

 

The Cardinals will always be the Cardinals, and everytime they do something that might hinder our chances, it just feels gross.

Edited January 30, 2021 by turborickey

[homer]

I don't follow the draft as close as some around here but it feels like the Cards draft a lot of guys with high floors....at least with the bat/glove. Is that accurate?

[markedman5]

Let’s see......he has a good year in 2021......’and then opts out.......he has a mediocre, injury riddled or poor year and opts in........

 

Those seem like potential ok outcomes .......of course he could play great.....love St Louis and decide to stay.

 

Let’s see what happens.

[sveumrules]

Let’s see......he has a good year in 2021......’and then opts out.......he has a mediocre, injury riddled or poor year and opts in........

 

Those seem like potential ok outcomes .......of course he could play great.....love St Louis and decide to stay.

 

Let’s see what happens.

 

Believe Arenado has opt outs each of the next two years.

 

Looks like he'll have 6/179 left on his deal going into his age 31 season after 2021 or 5/144 left going into his age 32 season after 2022.

 

Even if Nolan has a monster year or two, topping those amounts on the open market at his age could be a stretch, so I'd guess he'll be in STL for the duration.

[Simba2020]

The splits are what they are but how predictive they are of his future performances away from Coors are really overblown.

 

One of the reasons that many Coors hitters have such extreme home/away splits is that they're constantly adjusting between the air at Coors and the air on the road. Once they are away from Coors on a fulltime basis they adjust and almost always outperform their previous road splits. Arenado matching his previous home splits likely isn't going to happen but he's equally as likely to outperform what he's done away from Coors so far in his career.

 

We heard the same thing with DJ Lemahieu when he left Colorado, "can't hit away from Coors." Matt Holliday is another good example. Good hitters are good hitters and will adjust. Age will catch up to Arenado eventually like it does with everyone but expecting him to just have an immediate massive regression from not hitting in Colorado anymore is wishful thinking.

I've been one in the past to clearly question how good hitters are that call Coors Field home. I know I'm always irritated when Brewers announcers fawn all over the Rockies offense when they are playing on the road. Their road OPS splits are almost always right where the worst offenses in the league are.

 

That being said, I do think hitters are able to adjust over time when they no longer call Coors Field their home. Another example is Corey Dickerson. Smaller sample sizes, but he hit .355 at Coors and .249 on the road. After his trade, he hit .284 from 2016-19 including a couple of .300 seasons.

[SeaBass]

The splits are what they are but how predictive they are of his future performances away from Coors are really overblown.

 

One of the reasons that many Coors hitters have such extreme home/away splits is that they're constantly adjusting between the air at Coors and the air on the road. Once they are away from Coors on a fulltime basis they adjust and almost always outperform their previous road splits. Arenado matching his previous home splits likely isn't going to happen but he's equally as likely to outperform what he's done away from Coors so far in his career.

 

We heard the same thing with DJ Lemahieu when he left Colorado, "can't hit away from Coors." Matt Holliday is another good example. Good hitters are good hitters and will adjust. Age will catch up to Arenado eventually like it does with everyone but expecting him to just have an immediate massive regression from not hitting in Colorado anymore is wishful thinking.

Good post. This is how I've felt about the home/road split bias against Rockies players, give them time to adjust to not having to constantly deal with having to play in that stadium on a regular basis. I also wonder how much playing in the NL West affects their road splits, some of those ballparks are on the pitcher friendly side. I think paying attention to the splits is prudent I just don't want to believe that they will translate so perfectly once the player is removed from that environment.

[MrTPlush]

Does this deal pass the “I wish the Brewers would have made the same deal” test?

 

Feels like a strong “no” on this one.

 

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

 

If we committed nearly half our payroll to two players? I mean first of all even the most homer fan should have the common sense to realize this trade wouldn’t even be possible for the Brewers.

 

I may be be excited if we pulled this trade of and Yelich still had 2-3 years years on his ORIGINAL deal. The current Yelich deal and the Arenado deal simply can’t coexist on the Brewers. It would be an utter disaster.

[adambr2]

Does this deal pass the “I wish the Brewers would have made the same deal” test?

 

Feels like a strong “no” on this one.

 

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

 

If we committed nearly half our payroll to two players? I mean first of all even the most homer fan should have the common sense to realize this trade wouldn’t even be possible for the Brewers.

 

I may be be excited if we pulled this trade of and Yelich still had 2-3 years years on his ORIGINAL deal. The current Yelich deal and the Arenado deal simply can’t coexist on the Brewers. It would be an utter disaster.

 

If you think we can't commit 20-25M each a year to 2 different players you can forget about keeping any ace type pitcher around. You better believe if Woodruff or Burnes end up as the type of #1s we hope they can be they are going to cost that much kind of coin after their initial 6 years, both of which are almost through half of that already.

[AKCheesehead]

I know one thing, I wish Taylor had paid attention to the splits in 2000 when he signed Hammonds.

[sveumrules]

If we committed nearly half our payroll to two players? I mean first of all even the most homer fan should have the common sense to realize this trade wouldn’t even be possible for the Brewers.

 

I may be be excited if we pulled this trade of and Yelich still had 2-3 years years on his ORIGINAL deal. The current Yelich deal and the Arenado deal simply can’t coexist on the Brewers. It would be an utter disaster.

 

If you think we can't commit 20-25M each a year to 2 different players you can forget about keeping any ace type pitcher around. You better believe if Woodruff or Burnes end up as the type of #1s we hope they can be they are going to cost that much kind of coin after their initial 6 years, both of which are almost through half of that already.

 

Cots has Burnes & Woodruff under arbitration through 2024, so four more full seasons.

 

Woodruff will be going into his age 32 season when he hits free agency. Given not too many pitchers break the bank with long term mega deals at that point he seems like a pretty good extension candidate over the next couple years.

 

Burnes will be going into his age 30 season when he hits free agency, so I'd think he might be a little trickier to lock up early.

 

Either way, possibly paying either of them 20 million a year is still a half a decade away at the earliest.

[sveumrules]

We heard the same thing with DJ Lemahieu when he left Colorado, "can't hit away from Coors." Matt Holliday is another good example. Good hitters are good hitters and will adjust. Age will catch up to Arenado eventually like it does with everyone but expecting him to just have an immediate massive regression from not hitting in Colorado anymore is wishful thinking.

 

LeMahieu had a 91 wRC+ in 3,737 PAs with the Rockies from 2012-18. It wasn't "can't hit away from Coors", it was just "can't hit". Though he did slash 391/473/591 at home vs 303/353/395 on the road during his 2016 batting crown season & posted a 96/84 career home/road wRC+ split with the Rockies, so he did get some Coors effect.

 

Since joining the Yankees he's posted a 182/112 home/road wRC+ split, an even larger gap than his 154/101 home/road wRC+ split during that 2016 batting crown season.

 

Holliday had a 133 career/151 peak wRC+ with the Rockies vs a 118 career/133 peak wRC+ for Arenado, Matt was just a flat better hitter. I'm not sure either of Holliday or DJL are the best comparison. The best comparison might be Nolan himself over the years...

 

2015-18 actual 297/358/573 (129 OPS+)

2019 ZiPS 289/356/552 (123 OPS+)

2019 actual 315/379/583 (130 OPS+)

2020 ZiPS 298/367/567 (126 OPS+)

2020 actual 253/303/434 (84 OPS+)

2021 COL ZiPS 289/354/534 (117 OPS+)

2021 STL ZiPS 262/331/471 (112 OPS+)

 

At least according to the projections, the 2020 struggles (9 points of OPS+, 126 to 117) are more worrisome than the home venue change (5 points of OPS+, 117 to 112).

[JosephC]

If Woodruff and Burnes keep pitching at a high level, they will be very expensive when they get to their final year of arbitration. I'm not going to compare their arbitration situation to someone like deGrom, because one could argue that he was the best pitcher in baseball. But if they keep pitching at a high level, then a comparison to Trevor Bauer is probably a pretty decent one. Now Bauer did win the Cy Young last year, but that was after the contracts/arbitration settlements. Prior to that he had one 6th place finish in Cy Young voting (just like Burnes last year). Bauer was a Super 2 player, Woodruff is but Burnes is not. Bauer earned 13 million in year #5 and 17.5 million in year #6.

 

IF Woodruff and Burnes keep pitching as well as they have recently, it wouldn't be a bit surprising to see their COMBINED salaries hit 30 million in year #5 and 40 million in year #6.

[Soupbone]

They will be traded before they hit $30 million. That would be somewhere close to $55 million for them and Yelich. No way does that happen. Someone will be moved.

[sveumrules]

Looked up a few recent similar 3B to see if they might be able to give us an idea as to how Arenado might perform into his 30s with STL.

 

Arenado (thru 29) 4558 PAs | 120 OPS+ | +120 FLD | 39.1 WAR

 

Ventura (thru 29) 4636 PAs | 119 OPS+ | +78 FLD | 33.6 WAR

Ventura (30-36) 3635 PAs | 109 OPS+ | +78 FLD | 22.5 WAR

 

Chavez (thru 29) 5156 PAs | 118 OPS+ | +44 FLD | 35.5 WAR

Chavez (30-36) 1072 PAs | 101 OPS+| -3 FLD | 2.8 WAR

 

Zimmerman (thru 29) 5183 PAs | 120 OPS+ | +43 FLD | 34.1 WAR

Zimmerman (30-34) 1946 PAs | 105 OPS+ | -1 FLD | 4.4 WAR

 

Longoria (thru 29) 4789 PAs | 129 OPS+ | +84 FLD | 43.7 WAR

Longoria (30-34) 2591 PAs | 105 OPS+ | +23 FLD | 13.1 WAR

 

Rolen (thru 29) 5122 PAs | 131 OPS+ | +87 FLD | 45.9 WAR

Rolen (30-36) 3066 PAs | 109 OPS+ | +88 FLD | 23.7 WAR

 

Arenado's thru 29 production is pretty much right in the middle of Ventura & Rolen, so that's prolly right around what STL is hoping his production looks like over the next 7 years.

 

Guys like Chavez, Longoria & Zimmerman provide the cautionary tales.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looked up a few recent similar 3B to see if they might be able to give us an idea as to how Arenado might perform into his 30s with STL.

 

Arenado (thru 29) 4558 PAs | 120 OPS+ | +120 FLD | 39.1 WAR

 

Ventura (thru 29) 4636 PAs | 119 OPS+ | +78 FLD | 33.6 WAR

Ventura (30-36) 3635 PAs | 109 OPS+ | +78 FLD | 22.5 WAR

 

Chavez (thru 29) 5156 PAs | 118 OPS+ | +44 FLD | 35.5 WAR

Chavez (30-36) 1072 PAs | 101 OPS+| -3 FLD | 2.8 WAR

 

Zimmerman (thru 29) 5183 PAs | 120 OPS+ | +43 FLD | 34.1 WAR

Zimmerman (30-34) 1946 PAs | 105 OPS+ | -1 FLD | 4.4 WAR

 

Longoria (thru 29) 4789 PAs | 129 OPS+ | +84 FLD | 43.7 WAR

Longoria (30-34) 2591 PAs | 105 OPS+ | +23 FLD | 13.1 WAR

 

Rolen (thru 29) 5122 PAs | 131 OPS+ | +87 FLD | 45.9 WAR

Rolen (30-36) 3066 PAs | 109 OPS+ | +88 FLD | 23.7 WAR

 

Arenado's thru 29 production is pretty much right in the middle of Ventura & Rolen, so that's prolly right around what STL is hoping his production looks like over the next 7 years.

 

Guys like Chavez, Longoria & Zimmerman provide the cautionary tales.

 

If Arenado turns into the next Evan Longoria, that would make me quite happy.

[Eye Black]

The deal is official...

 

Trade Breakdown

 

Cardinals get: Nolan Arenado, cash considerations [reportedly $51 million]

 

Rockies get: LHP Austin Gomber, INF Elehuris Montero, RHP Tony Locey, INF Mateo Gil and RHP Jake Sommers

[Eye Black]

From Rockies beat reporter Nick Groke:

 

Dick Monfort was dead-set against trading Nolan Arenado to the Dodgers. So, mission accomplished I suppose, he really stuck it to Andrew Friedman...

[bill hAll Star]

I was one that was very wrong about DJ Lemahieu. He was one guy that I thought wouldn't be that great out of Coors. He can hit the ball very well, but one thing really helping him out was hitting the juiced ball and Yankee Stadium.

 

That probably kept him from being, "meh, he can hit and is a solid player" to, "wow, he's still an All Star out of Coors."

 

He hits the ball over that short porch in RF a lot, taking his game up a notch. He went from the best hitting park for guys to hit for average to probably the best HR park in Yankee Stadium, and it plays right to his strengths.

[JosephC]

Without going through all the math, I'd guess Arenado had something like -20 to -30 million in surplus value. So since the Rockies sent about 50 million to the Cardinals, I would have expected the package of players they got back to be worth about 20-30 million in surplus value.

 

Montero is a pretty interesting prospect. Kind of a "middle profile" signing that worked his way to legitimate top 100 status only to get downgraded after a rough first-go at AA. He was only 20. Sounds like he has a good all around bat with some power that might also hit for average. I think he's probably the jewel of this return and is a guy who is worth watching.

 

Gomber just comes off as another guy to me. Had sparkling run prevention numbers last year but was probably really lucky when looking at the BABIP and HR/FB% numbers. Locey and Gil look like pretty solid role-player type prospects and Sommers is a fringe guy. Worth noting that Sommers is Wisconsin-born and attended Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

 

I'd put the surplus value of the five players heading to Colorado at +28.1 million, it seems like a solid return when looking at the full context of this trade.

[wntrtxn21]

Without going through all the math, I'd guess Arenado had something like -20 to -30 million in surplus value. So since the Rockies sent about 50 million to the Cardinals, I would have expected the package of players they got back to be worth about 20-30 million in surplus value.

 

Montero is a pretty interesting prospect. Kind of a "middle profile" signing that worked his way to legitimate top 100 status only to get downgraded after a rough first-go at AA. He was only 20. Sounds like he has a good all around bat with some power that might also hit for average. I think he's probably the jewel of this return and is a guy who is worth watching.

 

Gomber just comes off as another guy to me. Had sparkling run prevention numbers last year but was probably really lucky when looking at the BABIP and HR/FB% numbers. Locey and Gil look like pretty solid role-player type prospects and Sommers is a fringe guy. Worth noting that Sommers is Wisconsin-born and attended Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

 

I'd put the surplus value of the five players heading to Colorado at +28.1 million, it seems like a solid return when looking at the full context of this trade.

 

IMO you are way over estimating the Rockies return package. Montero was so badly overmatched at AA his value went way down. Maybe 4-6 sv. Gomber is a lefty that walks too many and not a big K guy. Maybe 5-7 sv. Locey is just starting out and has nothing special. Didn't do that well at A ball. Maybe 1-2 sv. Gil the same way. 1-2. Sommers doesn't look like he'll get past AA. He didn't do well in rookie ball. 0 sv. All together I would put the package at: high side +17 / low side +11. I can understand why the Rockies' fans are irate with this trade. They got nothing to be even mildly excited about and had to send $50M to the Cards to boot!

[bill hAll Star]

If you have realistic expectations of what owners are going to spend and realistic expectations about the trajectory of the Rockies (post-2018 looked great! Post 2020 with Dodgers/Padres, they have zero chance), shedding the $ is huge.

 

The Brewers of 2018 and Reds of 2020 would happily have hopped in a time machine and given Braun and Votto away for literally nothing 3 years earlier in tanking seasons. I know Braun held up somewhat well and had some clutch hits, but I'd have loved $20 million more to spend on pitching/deadline acquisitions over Braun.

 

And that's what the Rockies' biggest asset is in this trade, for better or worse. Maybe they timed it wrong and got a crap deal instead of waiting another year.

 

The reason they signed Arenado to this deal in the first place is it appeared that had a good 5 year window coming up. It appears the young pitching isn't what we thought it was...so time to retool/rebuild before Arenado becomes potentially untradeable in 2-3 years. To boot, they can move up in the draft.

[Warning Track Power]

Wong signing was one week late. I would have been all over a Hiura for Arenado trade.

[adambr2]

Wong signing was one week late. I would have been all over a Hiura for Arenado trade.

 

The Rockies had better be eating $100M of his contract instead of $50M to give up Hiura.