Arenado to the Cards

[JosephC]

Attanasio seems to think the gesture of signing Yelich long term is enough for the fans.

 

 

COVID-19 will get the writers off Attanasio's back, and in complete fairness the whole situation probably does impact the Brewers more than any other MLB club since their television revenue is bottom-of-the-barrel. But I know what your are saying. If Attanasio is running a 100 million dollar payroll in 2023, and a writer asks him why the payroll is the same as it was 10 years ago, I would fully expect Attanasio to drop the "well look at Christian, we spend money when the opportunity is there."

 

At least we are guaranteed to outspend the Pirates as long as they have their current ownership. I really feel sorry for their fans. Where they are at right now looks like the Brewers during the last years of the Selig ownership.

[adambr2]

Pretty remarkable that the Rockies have never won their division in 28 years, but they have a remarkable similar track record as the Brewers during those 28 years.

 

Rockies:

5 playoff appearances

0 division titles

1 pennant

2059-2314, .471%

 

Brewers:

5 playoff appearances

2 division titles

0 pennants

 

Don't know what the Brewers' record since 1993 is but would guess it's very similar.

[JosephC]

Pretty remarkable that the Rockies have never won their division in 28 years, but they have a remarkable similar track record as the Brewers during those 28 years.

 

Rockies:

5 playoff appearances

0 division titles

1 pennant

2059-2314, .471%

 

Brewers:

5 playoff appearances

2 division titles

0 pennants

 

Don't know what the Brewers' record since 1993 is but would guess it's very similar.

 

I exported Baseball References Brewer franchise page to an Excel spreadsheet and, if I haven't botched the edit/delete and got the formulas right, from 1993-2020 the Brewer's regular season record is 2087-2280 (.478).

[sveumrules]

Unfortunately this team is not willing to do what it takes to compete with an organization like St Louis.

 

From 2017-20 the Cardinals won 292 games, the Brewers won 300.

 

Individual season totals were 83, 88, 91 & 30 for the Cards versus 86, 96, 89 & 29 for the Brewers.

 

We've literally been competitive with (& won more games than) the Cardinals over the last four years despite the fact STL has spent around 570 million on payroll over that time compared to only around 350 million for the crew.

[Axman59]

It's an odd numbered year so I think the Brewers will be fine with Sogard at 3B. I think we can count on 2-3 WAR from him.

 

And the bonus is that he'll come very cheap.

[sveumrules]

Pretty remarkable that the Rockies have never won their division in 28 years, but they have a remarkable similar track record as the Brewers during those 28 years.

 

Rockies:

5 playoff appearances

0 division titles

1 pennant

2059-2314, .471%

 

Brewers:

5 playoff appearances

2 division titles

0 pennants

 

Don't know what the Brewers' record since 1993 is but would guess it's very similar.

 

I exported Baseball References Brewer franchise page to an Excel spreadsheet and, if I haven't botched the edit/delete and got the formulas right, from 1993-2020 the Brewer's regular season record is 2087-2280 (.478).

 

Those W/L records match the 1993-2020 FanGraphs totals. Going back to 1993 produces the largest sample, but probably not the most relevant.

 

If we look at 2005-2020, the Attanasio era, the Brewers are at 1262-1229 (.507) versus 1177-1315 (.472) for the Rockies.

 

The most pertinent comparison moving forward is probably looking at the Stearns years, 2016-2020, which saw the Brewers go 373-336 (.526) versus 350-359 (.494) for the Rockies.

[Lathund]

Unfortunately this team is not willing to do what it takes to compete with an organization like St Louis.

 

From 2017-20 the Cardinals won 292 games, the Brewers won 300.

 

Individual season totals were 83, 88, 91 & 30 for the Cards versus 86, 96, 89 & 29 for the Brewers.

 

We've literally been competitive with (& won more games than) the Cardinals over the last four years despite the fact STL has spent around 500 million on payroll over that time compared to only around 350 million for the crew.

 

The forums are absolutely miserable to read at times like this. There is disappointment, frustration, impatience; which I totally get even if I don't always agree. But it's just coated in so much hyperbole, attention-seeking and self-pity that whatever substance is at the heart of it gets drowned out. So I appreciate it when posters, like you're doing now, bring out some actual numbers and do some fact-checking.

[owbc]

Does this deal pass the “I wish the Brewers would have made the same deal” test?

 

Feels like a strong “no” on this one.

[adambr2]

Does this deal pass the “I wish the Brewers would have made the same deal” test?

 

Feels like a strong “no” on this one.

 

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

[sveumrules]

Does this deal pass the “I wish the Brewers would have made the same deal” test?

 

Feels like a strong “no” on this one.

 

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

 

& how many of those excited people would be dreading owing him 165 million over the next 7 years after he had a bad April?

[TURBO]

Does this deal pass the “I wish the Brewers would have made the same deal” test?

 

Feels like a strong “no” on this one.

 

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

 

& how many of those excited people would be dreading owing him 165 million over the next 7 years after he had a bad April?

 

 

But what if he had a GREAT April?

[adambr2]

Does this deal pass the “I wish the Brewers would have made the same deal” test?

 

Feels like a strong “no” on this one.

 

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

 

& how many of those excited people would be dreading owing him 165 million over the next 7 years after he had a bad April?

 

Plenty. But that's the reactionary nature of the general masses. That's not really what I'm saying. We're talking if this passes the "I wish we would have done this" test. I'm saying if we were the ones that acquired Arenado, we'd be looking for reasons to love it, not downplaying it. It'd be no different than when we acquired Greinķe, or Sabathia, or extended Yelich. There would be a few of us in the corner going, "Gee whiz, we kind of gave up a lot," or "Uh oh, this could come back to bite us in 5 years," but the vast majority would be saying "OMG OMG OMG we got Nolan".

[PeaveyFury]

Plenty. But that's the reactionary nature of the general masses. That's not really what I'm saying. We're talking if this passes the "I wish we would have done this" test. I'm saying if we were the ones that acquired Arenado, we'd be looking for reasons to love it, not downplaying it. It'd be no different than when we acquired Greinķe, or Sabathia, or extended Yelich. There would be a few of us in the corner going, "Gee whiz, we kind of gave up a lot," or "Uh oh, this could come back to bite us in 5 years," but the vast majority would be saying "OMG OMG OMG we got Nolan".

 

You can reference back to the Yelich trade thread that was bumped recently for a reminder of how a lot of people view things negatively, whether warranted or not...

[owbc]

 

Come on, do we really believe that? I think we all know darn well the ratio of excited people to the "I wish we hadn't done this" crowd would be at least 90/10 in favor of those excited about it if we had pulled this same deal off.

 

& how many of those excited people would be dreading owing him 165 million over the next 7 years after he had a bad April?

 

Plenty. But that's the reactionary nature of the general masses. That's not really what I'm saying. We're talking if this passes the "I wish we would have done this" test. I'm saying if we were the ones that acquired Arenado, we'd be looking for reasons to love it, not downplaying it. It'd be no different than when we acquired Greinķe, or Sabathia, or extended Yelich. There would be a few of us in the corner going, "Gee whiz, we kind of gave up a lot," or "Uh oh, this could come back to bite us in 5 years," but the vast majority would be saying "OMG OMG OMG we got Nolan".

 

Exactly. What I’m saying is that there are some deals where it’s like “OMG why didn’t our GM know the price was so low” and this is not one of them.

 

Of course it makes the Cards better, especially in 2021, but this reminds me more of my reaction to the Cincinnati Reds deals of last winter where I didn’t feel any regret that the Brewers didn’t sign those expensive deals.

[homer]

The famous road splits, the fact that he will soon be 30, and of course my burning card hatred makes me hope this will be a giant waste of money for the cards.

 

.793 OPS away from Coors for his career.

[adambr2]

Plenty. But that's the reactionary nature of the general masses. That's not really what I'm saying. We're talking if this passes the "I wish we would have done this" test. I'm saying if we were the ones that acquired Arenado, we'd be looking for reasons to love it, not downplaying it. It'd be no different than when we acquired Greinķe, or Sabathia, or extended Yelich. There would be a few of us in the corner going, "Gee whiz, we kind of gave up a lot," or "Uh oh, this could come back to bite us in 5 years," but the vast majority would be saying "OMG OMG OMG we got Nolan".

 

You can reference back to the Yelich trade thread that was bumped recently for a reminder of how a lot of people view things negatively, whether warranted or not...

 

Definitely some but the positive vastly outweighed the negative in that thread.

[sveumrules]

If the Brewers acquired him, my first reaction probably would have been "woah, bold move by Mark A taking on 165 million bucks with greatly diminished game day revenue at best for 2021 & without a TV deal signed yet either."

 

After that, I would have looked at the projections & tried to figure out how much value to expect from Nolan over the next seven years, which looks to be around 16-17 WAR. At 165 million that comes out to like 10 million per win, or above market rate, even with the 50 million discount.

 

Now projections are just a median outcome, he could easily play above those, he has in the past (when he was younger & healthier), so of course if the Brewers acquired him I would hope he beats them. Maybe put up a couple 5-6 WAR years before trailing off for another dozen or so WAR over the last five years. That would bring him in around say 23-ish WAR, or 7 million per win.

 

As it relates to 2021, Depth Charts had the Brewers projected at 28.3 WAR before the deal with the Cardinals at 25.9. I would guess the Arenado (& Yadi) moves bump the Cardinals up to around 30 WAR, so they'll have a slight edge on the Brewers but its not like they've vaulted themselves into the LA (46.0) / SD (43.3) tier or even the NYM (40.9) / ATL (35.2) level...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

[TURBO]

Something tells me that the Cardinals aren't done yet either... They surely can see what the other clubs in the central have done (nothing) so if they make a couple other moves, they could take a commanding lead in the "favored" catagory. (which really means nothing, that's why the games are played)

 

It feels like the only way we can take them is to now try and catch up, and there aren't any players out there in our range that makes that very possible. (free agents) Turner would now seem like a move to make just to stay even with St. Louis, not overtake them.

 

I just wonder if we don't have some kind of trade coming our way in the near future?

[SRB]

People actually rying to act like this was a bad move for the Cardinals? People finding ways to say that Arenado is in decline, etc...

 

LOL

 

Sometimes, the homerism is just too much to take...

 

I guess that is just how some people can talk themselves into thinking the Cards got screwed, or whatever, but seriously, had we made this deal, people here would have been over the moon with joy. Since it wasn't us, it has to be a bad deal, right?

 

*shaking head*

 

He's coming off a shoulder injury and was a defense-only player last year. Don't have to go far searching for red flags.

 

It's not like the Cardinals won a lottery or something. Colorado has been very publicly shopping Arenado for a long time. Every other team in the majors could have easily bested that offer (or, since Arenado had to waive his no-trade clause, any contender at least).

[adambr2]

I see a lot of bringing up 2020 stats on Arenado when I also hear from others to just throw the 2020 stats out the window. Either 2020 stats are meaningful, or they aren't. Can't have it both ways.

 

I guess where I'm at is that probably the most similar move we've made to this is extending Yelich, and you'd be hard pressed to find someone here who was disappointed about doing that at the time it was done. Is this going to be a bad contract for the Cardinals in 5 years? Yeah, probably. Are they going to be a much tougher team to beat in the division for the next 5 years because of it? Yeah, probably. I'm a fan of the Brewers and not an accountant for the Cardinals so I'm far more concerned about the latter than the former.

[nate82]

The biggest concern I have with Arenado is his exit velocity maybe it was just the weird season last year but his average exit velocity dropped by about 3 MPH and his launch angle also increased by 3 degrees. Is this the beginning of a trend for Arenado or just part of the weird 2020 season? I am not sure but he is 30 years old now and we do tend to see players start to decline around this age range. If his exit velocity is at 87 MPH again I believe this is going to be a horrible deal for the Cardinals especially if he is not able to stay healthy any kind of injury is going to make this a bad deal for the Cardinals.

[HiAndTight]

Yep. Now my best hope for an offensive upgrade at third base is you-know-who coming back, combined with Craig Counsell *SOMEHOW* recoveringn from his mysterious amnesia about what position the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year played...

 

 

Is this supposed to be in blue? Or are you REALLY advocating for Ryan Braun to go back to 3rd base?

 

I feel like there's maybe an inside joke I'm not privy to as I haven't been posting over here all that much as of late.

[sveumrules]

The biggest concern I have with Arenado is his exit velocity maybe it was just the weird season last year but his average exit velocity dropped by about 3 MPH and his launch angle also increased by 3 degrees. Is this the beginning of a trend for Arenado or just part of the weird 2020 season? I am not sure but he is 30 years old now and we do tend to see players start to decline around this age range. If his exit velocity is at 87 MPH again I believe this is going to be a horrible deal for the Cardinals especially if he is not able to stay healthy any kind of injury is going to make this a bad deal for the Cardinals.

 

Arenado was dealing with inflamation in his left shoulder AC joint last season, which was apparently the culprit for his diminished power output. From what I could find it just required rest, no surgery.

 

From Arenado's first All Star season in 2015 through last year, he totaled 27.9 WAR, 8th most per Fangraphs. How did he get there?

 

It all starts with playing time, Nolan had the 7th most PAs from 2015-20. He'll likely play considerably less often in his thirties.

 

On a rate basis, his 125 wRC+ ranked 44th, but since played so much, he ended up with the 23rd most batting runs. The main thing driving his offensive profile is the power tool, with his ISO+ of 161 ranking 7th over that time frame. If Arenado's power slips from elite down to even just very good, his offensive profile will take a pretty big hit.

 

Defense typically declines with age too, but true elite defenders like Arenado (+90 DRS / +38.7 UZR since 2015) seem to be able to hang on a little longer, so that aspect of his profile would give me the least concern.

 

Ultimately, two of the three things from which Nolan has derived most of his value (health & power) have some legitimate question marks moving forward. The Cardinals were apparently the only team willing to pay 165 million to live with the answers.

[homer]

Again, his home-road splits are pretty severe. He's good away from home but he is nowhere near elite. Even in his best offensive year his road OPS was 866 which is really, really good but not out of this world like he's been at home. He's an upgrade for St Louis and his defense is awesome but I don't see this as a one sided deal in favor of the Cards.

[adambr2]

The splits are what they are but how predictive they are of his future performances away from Coors are really overblown.

 

One of the reasons that many Coors hitters have such extreme home/away splits is that they're constantly adjusting between the air at Coors and the air on the road. Once they are away from Coors on a fulltime basis they adjust and almost always outperform their previous road splits. Arenado matching his previous home splits likely isn't going to happen but he's equally as likely to outperform what he's done away from Coors so far in his career.

 

We heard the same thing with DJ Lemahieu when he left Colorado, "can't hit away from Coors." Matt Holliday is another good example. Good hitters are good hitters and will adjust. Age will catch up to Arenado eventually like it does with everyone but expecting him to just have an immediate massive regression from not hitting in Colorado anymore is wishful thinking.