Arenado to the Cards

[Eye Black]

Good players are good players. I remember when DJ LeMahieu left the Rockies many posters here dismissed him as a product of Coors Field for many of the same reasons and all he's done is finish 4th and 3rd for AL MVP the last 2 seasons.

 

I'm not worried about Arenado's performance dropping off much going to St. Louis. Or rather, I am worried if the Brewers plan on trying to contend the next few seasons.

I don’t think it’s as easy as assuming hitting at high altitude into large outfield dimensions affects all players equally. On the flip side, I’m not convinced the answer is as easy as “look at these home/road splits” either.

 

For years it’s been speculated that Coors might be benefiting some players significantly. Carlos Gonzalez was one such player. Others that were considered “safe bets” due to much lower split discrepancies have also fallen off after their career led them away from Coors. Troy Tulowitzki was traded during his age-30 season (this will be Arenado’s age-30 season) and he had always had solid road production. His stats in Toronto never really approached his success in Colorado even before injuries obviously derailed his career completely.

 

I do think an argument can be made that in LeMahieu’s situation he ended up in the single best home park he could possibly hit in, Yankee Stadium.

 

Anyway, for those curious about a deeper dive into how Coors may have positively impacted Arenado, this article from two years ago by former Brewers front office member Tony Blengino is intriguing:

 

Rockies' Nolan Arenado Is A Star, But The 'Coors Effect' Has A Lot To Do With His $260M Contract

 

I don’t necessarily agree with the entirety of the article, but I think it’s worth reading to understand some of the arguments for why the mile-high hitting environment may have had an impact on Arenado.

[adambr2]

Yep. Now my best hope for an offensive upgrade at third base is you-know-who coming back, combined with Craig Counsell *SOMEHOW* recoveringn from his mysterious amnesia about what position the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year played...

 

Seems like a good idea to me. Maybe you're on to something!

 

 

We still need a catcher too, and the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year is available to my knowledge.

[pacopete4]

I hear Braun is in the best shape of his life.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I hear Braun is in the best shape of his life.

 

I also tried to put Braun at 3B in RBI Baseball. He made three errors, but he did hit a two-run homer, and I won the game 8-7.

 

I mean, if that isn't proof that moving him back to 3B would work, I'm not sure what is!

[adambr2]

Yep. Now my best hope for an offensive upgrade at third base is you-know-who coming back, combined with Craig Counsell *SOMEHOW* recoveringn from his mysterious amnesia about what position the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year played...

 

There are times when I think you've just got a lot of different perspectives.

 

Then there are times when I think you've just been trolling us for years and years. Bravo, if so.

[MrTPlush]

A decent example of why Yelich doesn’t have a ton of value if you traded him. I believe with the money kicked in the yearly salary is about what Yelich is set to get paid. Except we are on the hook to pay Yelich an extra year or two...which is a huge negative as 37 year old Yelich will probably not be too good.

 

Yelich has more offensive ceiling...probably. However, Arenado is way better defensively and at a more premium position. Maybe some risk leaving Coors, but I doubt the Cards are overly worried or that it greatly hurt his value.

 

It isn’t apples to apples...but it’s a pretty darn close comp for Yelich. It took $50mil for the Rockies to even get not elite prospects. Safe to say Yelich is already untradeable as I can’t imagine we would ever throw $50mil away to get rid of him. I don’t think the Brewers would even want to trade him, but just a thought as some mention the idea from time to time.

 

Random Fact I Found That You Never Need to Know:

 

The 4th most comparable player to Christian Yelich on BRef is Corey Hart.

[adambr2]

A decent example of why Yelich doesn’t have a ton of value if you traded him. I believe with the money kicked in the yearly salary is about what Yelich is set to get paid. Except we are on the hook to pay Yelich an extra year or two...which is a huge negative as 37 year old Yelich will probably not be too good.

 

Yelich has more offensive ceiling...probably. However, Arenado is way better defensively and at a more premium position. Maybe some risk leaving Coors, but I doubt the Cards are overly worried or that it greatly hurt his value.

 

It isn’t apples to apples...but it’s a pretty darn close comp for Yelich. It took $50mil for the Rockies to even get not elite prospects. Safe to say Yelich is already untradeable as I can’t imagine we would ever throw $50mil away to get rid of him. I don’t think the Brewers would even want to trade him, but just a thought as some mention the idea from time to time.

 

Random Fact I Found That You Never Need to Know:

 

The 4th most comparable player to Christian Yelich on BRef is Corey Hart.

 

As excited as everyone was to extend Yelich. ..there is a reason he signed it. And it wasn't just to do Milwaukee a big solid. For better or worse, the Brewers tied their fortunes to Yelich with that deal because the merit of trading him vanished before the ink was even dry. Here's hoping he rebounds in a big way in 2021, because they are going to need him. And they are going to need to put better players than Daniel Robertson around him if they are going to win a pennant in Yelich's career.

[burnzy24]

 

Most players have better home/road splits to some degree. Arenado's are more extreme and Coors is a factor but I think any opposing fans expecting him to just drop to his career road splits are going to be pretty disappointed.

 

I'd expect probably an .850-.875 OPS type player at worst, not to mention an elite glove. I'd say it's a pretty good move more than a desperation one. I'd certainly be excited if we were the ones acquiring him and I think most Brewer fans if being honest with themselves would concur with that.

 

Here are a few career home/road OPS splits:

 

Ryan Braun

Home: .907

Road: .875

 

Kris Bryant

Home: .901

Road: .876

 

Mike Trout

Home: 1.008

Road: .992

 

Paul Goldschmidt

Home: .920

Road: .909

 

Christian Yellich

Home: .874

Road: .866

 

Nolan Arenado

Home: .985

Road: .793

 

Outside of Arenado's insane .192 home/road differential, the most extreme difference is Braun's with a .032 better OPS at home. Also interesting, Troy Tulowitzki's last full year in Colorado his home/road OPS was 1.246/.811. In 2016, his first full year with Toronto, they were .776//747 Tulowitzki's career OPS splits was .918/.791. Saying Arenado is going to be at minimum of a .850-.875 OPS could happen but far from guaranteed.

[wibadgers23]

The Cardinals are just trolling us now knowing we basically have no 1B and 3B while they now have one of the better corner infields in baseball.

[Eye Black]

The Cardinals are just trolling us now knowing we basically have no 1B and 3B while they now have one of the better corner infields in baseball.

If the Brewers and Cardinals decided to co-op in 2021 they could compete in the NL West!

[monty57]

You’d have to think this will light a fire under Attanasio to green light that extra year to get Turner signed.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You’d have to think this will light a fire under Attanasio to green light that extra year to get Turner signed.

 

I will take anything that isn't "Brewers sign (insert random utility infielder) to a 1-year MLB minimum (or minor league) deal." Please, just give us something! I know the Brewers aren't going to schedule their moves to appease the fanbase, but I was really hoping for some positive Brewers news this week to help get over last weekend's depressing Packers performance. But instead we get tidbits about the Brewers being attached to a few players, only to see several of them sign with different clubs for affordable, short deals.

[TURBO]

If being attached to a few players means that we made a phone call to an agent about a given player, then the agent used us as a pawn to get his client more money, then ok, we were attached to a few players.

 

I just get sick of our name being "attached" to a player, then as a fan, knowing full well it means nothing. Gets old.

 

Ok, well, Gyorko iis still out there I guess...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd be totally fine with Gyorko coming back. He was very good last year. With Yelich and Hiura hitting like crap all year, he was probably the reason this team was able to back into the playoffs at all.

[Eye Black]

From Mark Saxon:

 

I heard an agent recently describe Rockies GM Jeff Bridich as the “worst communicator in MLB.” That seems to be a big aspect of this whole thing, amazingly.

 

 

Reminder that the Brewers haven’t made a trade with the Rockies since December of 2004.

[JosephC]

Trying to figure out Arenado's worth adjusted when not having Coors as a home park.

 

Lifetime he is a .322 OBP, .793 OPS hitter on the road.

 

Let's throw out 2020.

 

In 2019 the primary 3B that was closest to these numbers was Jose Ramirez. .327 OBP/.806 OPS. Good at 3B but not as good as Arenado, Ramirez posted a +4 DRS and +4.5 UZR/150 in 1088 innings. Ramirez only played in 129 games. He finished the season with a 3.4 fWAR and a 3.4 bWAR. Adjust this to a 150 game season and give some more credit for superior defense, and it probably ends up at about a 4.5 WAR season.

 

2018 doesn't have real good comparison. Mike Moustakas is probably the closest in terms of OBP/OPS, he finished the year at .315/.774. 152 games so a full season that doesn't require any adjustment for time missed. Not close to Arenado's level of defense as Moustakas finished with 3B numbers of +2 DRS and +1.0 UZR/150 (1096 innings at 3B, only 35 innings at 1B). All that was good for a 2.4 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR. The offensive numbers are clearly behind Arenado's road numbers but Ramirez's 2019 numbers were a bit better, so let's not make any adjustment for that. Bump Arenado up for the superior defense and I'd adjust Moustakas' 2.4 WAR up to a 3.0 WAR estimate for Arenado.

 

Kyle Seager is probably the best comparison from 2017. .323 OBP/.773 OPS. 154 games played. +6 DRS, +7.3 UZR/150. +3.5 fWAR/+3.5 bWAR.

 

Using the figures above, I'd estimate Arenado as being a 3.7 to 3.9 WAR player after removing him from Coors Field. After all the money being shipping from Colorado, it still sounds like the Cardinals will pay him roughly 25 million per season and then they tacked another 15 million dollar season on the end of that. So if I have that right, the Cardinals obligation is now 7 years, ~165 million. They talk about 9 million per WAR but that is based on top free agent dollars so you are talking Yankee and Red Sox dollars but here we are talking about Cardinal dollars. Probably safe to say they will be looking at about 150 million dollar payrolls in the short term future so they it seems like 6.75 million per WAR is more reasonable when looking at their payroll level. They probably need to get 24-25 WAR out of Arenado over the next 7 years to make the investment worth it. So we are looking at about 3.5 WAR per season.

 

As always, it will come down to how fast and how hard the decline happens for Arenado. You can bet the Cardinals are extremely confident that Arenado will outperform the .322 OBP/.793 OPS level early on in this deal, and that's probably a pretty good bet. All comes down to when the offensive falloff happens.

[brewers888]

You’d have to think this will light a fire under Attanasio to green light that extra year to get Turner signed.

 

More like getting ready for another year of Sogard. Its time to face the facts that this team is not going to spend any real amount of money. Attanasio seems to think the gesture of signing Yelich long term is enough for the fans.

 

They seem willing to give one long term deal for a face of the franchise. First it was Braun and now Yelich. Unfortunately this team is not willing to do what it takes to compete with an organization like St Louis.

[adambr2]

I'd be totally fine with Gyorko coming back. He was very good last year. With Yelich and Hiura hitting like crap all year, he was probably the reason this team was able to back into the playoffs at all.

 

The problem with Gyorko is that you're chasing a career year from a 32 year old journeyman who is unlikely to replicate his 2020 and is far more likely just another middling option.

 

It's not all that different than giving Sogard 4 million following a good 2019 and then getting no return on the investment once he inevitably reverted back to career norms in 2020.

 

Gyorko is slightly better than Sogard as far as career journeymen infielders go but not by a lot. Don't get me wrong he would be better than nothing but there is a reason the Brewers turned down a reasonable $4.5M option on Gyorko and that tells you a lot about what they think about his chances are to sustain his 2020 performance.

[Jopal78]

The Cardinals are just trolling us now knowing we basically have no 1B and 3B while they now have one of the better corner infields in baseball.

 

The Cardinals also now have a quarter of a billion dollars guaranteed to those two players covering well into their 30s. Goldschmidt has been good not great for St. Louis. If Arenado is good but not great, the money aspect will come back to bite them.

[Jopal78]

Sub-comment: with already close to 100 million dollars committed to just four players: Carpenter, Fowler, Goldschmidt and Arenado. Are the Cardinals really a team that should be in the competitive balance draft?

[jerichoholicninja]

Certainly helps the Cards for the next couple years but Goldy and Nolan could very well be the albatrosses that hold that team back after that. Those two will be paid quite handsomely for their mid to late 30's. And unless there's a DH at that time you can't just hide both aging players at first base.

 

Also, I know there are some real doozies out there but for my money the Rockies are the worst run franchise in pro sports. They never go all in nor do they tear it down. They sit in mediocrity and eek out a playoff appearance every now and then while throwing gobs of money at their own players before unloading them soon after for next to nothing or just let them walk and still get nothing. They have no direction, no plan, nothing. Just spinning their wheels.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd be totally fine with Gyorko coming back. He was very good last year. With Yelich and Hiura hitting like crap all year, he was probably the reason this team was able to back into the playoffs at all.

 

The problem with Gyorko is that you're chasing a career year from a 32 year old journeyman who is unlikely to replicate his 2020 and is far more likely just another middling option.

 

It's not all that different than giving Sogard 4 million following a good 2019 and then getting no return on the investment once he inevitably reverted back to career norms in 2020.

 

Gyorko is slightly better than Sogard as far as career journeymen infielders go but not by a lot. Don't get me wrong he would be better than nothing but there is a reason the Brewers turned down a reasonable $4.5M option on Gyorko and that tells you a lot about what they think about his chances are to sustain his 2020 performance.

 

All true. It was my hope that when they turned down Gyorko's option, they did it with a plan in mind to get something better there. But here we are, on Jan. 30, less than 3 weeks from the start of Spring Training, and we're looking at a competition between Luis Urias, Daniel Robertson and Tim Lopes for time at 3B, and Daniel Vogelbach seeing full time work at 1B. Perhaps the Brewers are much more bullish on Robertson or Lopes than I am, and I know that Gyorko is far from a sure thing, but he does at least have a track record of quality major league production, including recent production as a Brewer. And looking at what is left in the 3B free agent market after Justin Turner, Gyorko is probably near the top of the list, for better or worse.

[Jopal78]

Certainly helps the Cards for the next couple years but Goldy and Nolan could very well be the albatrosses that hold that team back after that. Those two will be paid quite handsomely for their mid to late 30's. And unless there's a DH at that time you can't just hide both aging players at first base.

 

Also, I know there are some real doozies out there but for my money the Rockies are the worst run franchise in pro sports. They never go all in nor do they tear it down. They sit in mediocrity and eek out a playoff appearance every now and then while throwing gobs of money at their own players before unloading them soon after for next to nothing or just let them walk and still get nothing. They have no direction, no plan, nothing. Just spinning their wheels.

 

...and don’t forget baseball should never have expanded into Denver. Great market, nice stadium but the environment dictates they’ll never have enough pitching to win it all

[jjgott]

the money aspect will come back to bite them.

 

Says who? When has the money aspect "come back to bite" the Cards? They have an ownership that seems willing to acquire players to win when the opportunity presents itself. They just gave $8 million to a 39 year old Adam Wainwright. I think for the most part the Cards do the things we wish the Brewers would do in FA.

[Eye Black]

Certainly helps the Cards for the next couple years but Goldy and Nolan could very well be the albatrosses that hold that team back after that. Those two will be paid quite handsomely for their mid to late 30's. And unless there's a DH at that time you can't just hide both aging players at first base.

 

Also, I know there are some real doozies out there but for my money the Rockies are the worst run franchise in pro sports. They never go all in nor do they tear it down. They sit in mediocrity and eek out a playoff appearance every now and then while throwing gobs of money at their own players before unloading them soon after for next to nothing or just let them walk and still get nothing. They have no direction, no plan, nothing. Just spinning their wheels.

 

...and don’t forget baseball should never have expanded into Denver. Great market, nice stadium but the environment dictates they’ll never have enough pitching to win it all

The Rockies have never won the NL West. Obviously they’ve been to a World Series (and they have four playoff appearances), but over a full season they’ve never won their division in 28 years of existence.