Justin Turner

[brewers888]

If we don't add Turner or some sort of power at third base this will be probably the lowest slugging infield in baseball. I don't understand how anyone can think this team has nearly enough slugging potential as the roster now stands.

[Jopal78]

For that reason, someone like Rios would make a ton of sense. You'll add some OBP guys in Wong and getting Cain back, so a thumper like Rios would help...

 

Except Rios is the reason the Dodgers are contemplating moving on from Turner.

 

Rios is 26, plays the corner infield spots has hit in a small sample in the majors, and had an .887 OPS across 450+ minor league games. They're not going to drop or trade him, if anything he may take Turner's job.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Guessing, regardless of who they get for 3B, they want someone with power. Right now we have power in LF and 1B. The rest of the team is pretty light hitting. No way do I see them throwing Urias at 3rd. We need to find another bat that might help score runs without requiring three hits in a row to make it happen.

 

I don’t mind not being power dependent...but the current team is really lacking in the power department.

 

That simply isn't true. This team's starting RF hit 20 HRs in his last full season in 2019, and the team's starting catcher hit 22 that year. You may not be happy with what Garcia and Narvaez looked like last year, but to not call them legit power threats is simply incorrect.

 

The career high for Garcia is 10 HRs and Narvaez certainly can't be counted on to provide anything. Its fine if you don't think we need power to win but this team is severely lacking in pop.

 

That's incorrect on Garcia - He's been a 15-18 HR per season player over an average of about 115 games played from 2015-2019 seasons. He hit 20 in 125 games with the Rays in 2019. Project that average over a full slate of games and he's a low-mid 20's HR player.

[PeaveyFury]

The career high for Garcia is 10 HRs and Narvaez certainly can't be counted on to provide anything. Its fine if you don't think we need power to win but this team is severely lacking in pop.

 

I have no idea where you're getting that number for Garcia, who hit more than 10 HRs in every full season he's played in his career.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Guessing, regardless of who they get for 3B, they want someone with power. Right now we have power in LF and 1B. The rest of the team is pretty light hitting. No way do I see them throwing Urias at 3rd. We need to find another bat that might help score runs without requiring three hits in a row to make it happen.

 

I don’t mind not being power dependent...but the current team is really lacking in the power department.

 

That simply isn't true. This team's starting RF hit 20 HRs in his last full season in 2019, and the team's starting catcher hit 22 that year. You may not be happy with what Garcia and Narvaez looked like last year, but to not call them legit power threats is simply incorrect.

 

The career high for Garcia is 10 HRs and Narvaez certainly can't be counted on to provide anything. Its fine if you don't think we need power to win but this team is severely lacking in pop.

 

That isn't correct. At all. Also, looking up statistics is super easy https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garciav01.shtml

 

Why can't Narvaez be counted on? He literally has 1,200 MLB ABs that say he can be a quality MLB hitter, compared to a small sample of 108 last year saying he can't. That is simply a terrible argument.

[PeaveyFury]

For that reason, someone like Rios would make a ton of sense. You'll add some OBP guys in Wong and getting Cain back, so a thumper like Rios would help...

 

Except Rios is the reason the Dodgers are contemplating moving on from Turner.

 

Rios is 26, plays the corner infield spots has hit in a small sample in the majors, and had an .887 OPS across 450+ minor league games. They're not going to drop or trade him, if anything he may take Turner's job.

 

I think that's literally the point. If they resign Turner, it pushes Rios out. If they want Rios to start, they don't resign Turner.

[pacopete4]

If your Turner, aren't you having a conversation with the Dodgers about their plans with Rios? I'm guessing Turner doesn't want to be replaced of finding himself on the bench because a younger guy is hitting.

[DuWayne Steurer]

For that reason, someone like Rios would make a ton of sense. You'll add some OBP guys in Wong and getting Cain back, so a thumper like Rios would help...

 

Except Rios is the reason the Dodgers are contemplating moving on from Turner.

 

Rios is 26, plays the corner infield spots has hit in a small sample in the majors, and had an .887 OPS across 450+ minor league games. They're not going to drop or trade him, if anything he may take Turner's job.

 

 

I honestly don't see why the Dodgers are still considering keeping Turner, with a guy like Rios on the squad. Rios has NEVER not hit at any level in the minors, and has come up to the majors and raked in small samples in 2 different seasons. At some point you have to give a guy the chance. Kinda feels like they're doing him dirty at this point if they don't find a way to get him substantial big league AB's this year.

 

I get that Turner's a good clubhouse guy and all, but if you can replace that production (and probably then some) from a guy 10 years younger and a lot cheaper, it's a no brainer. Even for an organization with seemingly limitless funds.

[JohnBriggs12]

Turner has been one of the leaders of a core group with the Dodgers that's been together for a while. One of their keys to success the last 5-6 is that they've had a great clubhouse for a high profile, high payroll team. Not only is the team extremely talented, they've had great intangibles. But they've moved on from guys when the time came. Grandal, Pederson, Kiki Hernandez have all found new homes. They were all part of a close knit core group that won together. I think it's time for Turner to turn the page but it's difficult for him and the Dodgers. He clearly can still play, but the Dodgers have talented players ready to take over. Money being equal Turner stays in LA even he has to accept being a semi-regular. He's waiting as long as he can to see if their offer approaches what other teams will pay hence the waiting game. Brewers should be an attractive team for him. With Turner, they likely have enough to be serious contenders for the postseason in a weak division. Turner saw the Brewer pitching staff up close. He was 0 for 8 in the 2 games in the playoffs vs. the Brewers.

[brewers888]

The career high for Garcia is 10 HRs and Narvaez certainly can't be counted on to provide anything. Its fine if you don't think we need power to win but this team is severely lacking in pop.

 

I have no idea where you're getting that number for Garcia, who hit more than 10 HRs in every full season he's played in his career.

 

I meant to say 20 hrs is the career high for Garcia so projecting him for mid 20s makes no sense. He is probably a 15 hr guy if he plays 130 games or more which does not say big power to me.

 

In the meantime other than Hiura the infield is pretty powerless unless you expect big things from Narvaez. We desperately need more power and Stearns doesn't seem to target too many power hitters.

 

This offense was terrible in 2020 and pretty mediocre before that even with Yelich being the best hitter in the league. I put part of the blame on Haines being an inept hitting coach but the fact remains that we need to improve this offense and we really haven't done that yet.

[MrTPlush]

Guessing, regardless of who they get for 3B, they want someone with power. Right now we have power in LF and 1B. The rest of the team is pretty light hitting. No way do I see them throwing Urias at 3rd. We need to find another bat that might help score runs without requiring three hits in a row to make it happen.

 

I don’t mind not being power dependent...but the current team is really lacking in the power department.

 

That simply isn't true. This team's starting RF hit 20 HRs in his last full season in 2019, and the team's starting catcher hit 22 that year. You may not be happy with what Garcia and Narvaez looked like last year, but to not call them legit power threats is simply incorrect.

 

3/6 of Garcia’s previous six years he has a sub .700 OPS, one at .719, one just under .800, and his 2017 career year that is obviously an outlier. He may hit 15-20 homers, but his OPS for most of his career has floated around .700.

 

Omar Narvaez is not a reliable power option and you could have said that even before last year. He simply doesn’t have a long track record of providing power numbers. He had 7 homers his entire MiLB career. Maybe he can provide some power, maybe not. Catchers can be real finicky year to year.

 

Sorry I should have clarified, a power hitter that can also hold a decent OPS too...that you can also reliably expect power from. As it stands the power on this team is pretty questionable. Narvaez/Garcia could provide some pop/higher OPS...but easily could be busts again.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The career high for Garcia is 10 HRs and Narvaez certainly can't be counted on to provide anything. Its fine if you don't think we need power to win but this team is severely lacking in pop.

 

I have no idea where you're getting that number for Garcia, who hit more than 10 HRs in every full season he's played in his career.

 

I meant to say 20 hrs is the career high for Garcia so projecting him for mid 20s makes no sense. He is probably a 15 hr guy if he plays 130 games or more which does not say big power to me.

 

In the meantime other than Hiura the infield is pretty powerless unless you expect big things from Narvaez. We desperately need more power and Stearns doesn't seem to target too many power hitters.

 

This offense was terrible in 2020 and pretty mediocre before that even with Yelich being the best hitter in the league. I put part of the blame on Haines being an inept hitting coach but the fact remains that we need to improve this offense and we really haven't done that yet.

 

They literally signed Moustakas and moved him to 2B in 2019 to get another power bat in the lineup. Grandal is one of MLB's top power threats at catcher. The 2019 lineup was full of power bats, and they were inconsistent as heck. I for one would applaud an attempt to get more OBP-based players in this lineup. It's been an all-or-nothing approach seemingly forever.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yeah, Narvaez hit 22 homers in 2019, when literally every single guy in baseball was socking dingers. I wouldn't be surprised if he rebounded and hit 15 - 18 homers, but also wouldn't be shocked if he didn't.

 

I would definitely expect Avi Garcia to provide more pop than he did last year. 15 - 18 isn't at all an unrealistic expectation.

 

Turner's at that age where he can probably still hit for average, but I wouldn't be shocked to see his power decline a bit. He's never been a big power guy himself. He's had a few 20+ homer seasons, but that's not really his game.

[Warning Track Power]

They literally signed Moustakas and moved him to 2B in 2019 to get another power bat in the lineup. Grandal is one of MLB's top power threats at catcher. The 2019 lineup was full of power bats, and they were inconsistent as heck. I for one would applaud an attempt to get more OBP-based players in this lineup. It's been an all-or-nothing approach seemingly forever.

Amen to this. I would take a team of double hitters/high OBP guys like Lyle Overbay or Jeff Cirillo over the sexier HR or nothing approach. Put another way, if the everyday lineup can produce Yelich 30+ HR, Hiura 25-30, Garcia and Narvaez 15-20 HR, Cain, Wong & Arcia 10-15, and Urias 8-10, I think there will be enough pop given the OBP factor and more people SHOULD be on base when those HRs do come.

[Dresden files]

first post but I agree 100% we need guys that get on base and put pressure on the other teams pitcher and Defense. It is much harder to pitch and have crazy shifts on when there are guys on base. Last year we put no pressure on the Pitcher or Defense since we struck out every time.

[PeaveyFury]

first post but I agree 100% we need guys that get on base and put pressure on the other teams pitcher and Defense. It is much harder to pitch and have crazy shifts on when there are guys on base. Last year we put no pressure on the Pitcher or Defense since we struck out every time.

 

Welcome aboard! Thanks for contributing.

[Jopal78]

For that reason, someone like Rios would make a ton of sense. You'll add some OBP guys in Wong and getting Cain back, so a thumper like Rios would help...

 

Except Rios is the reason the Dodgers are contemplating moving on from Turner.

 

Rios is 26, plays the corner infield spots has hit in a small sample in the majors, and had an .887 OPS across 450+ minor league games. They're not going to drop or trade him, if anything he may take Turner's job.

 

I think that's literally the point. If they resign Turner, it pushes Rios out. If they want Rios to start, they don't resign Turner.

 

Right, but my point is they are not going to jettison a player like Rios from the organization whether they start him or not, or at least not for less than a king’s ransom

[Lathund]

The "HR or bust" approach needs guys on base to work consistently, so that it's not just 1-run HRs you're hitting. So if you have that kind of approach, you should be looking at the high OBP/high HR types (In recent Brewers history think Grandal, Thames or Vogelbach) even if they don't hit for average, as opposed to the swing-happy guys who might hit HRs and hit for a decent average, but don't get on base well (Moustakas for a recent Brewer. Baez for another example). Of course ideally you want all three, but then you're talking Yelich, Freeman, Trout, Betts etc, so gotta settle for something.

 

But I don't think it necessarily has to be the case that the Brewers have changed their approach. I think this front office is one of the most Moneyball-type teams there is; they follow value above all else. So even if they prefer one type of hitter, if that type of hitter are generally valued (in terms of trade packages and salary) at 10% above what the Brewers think their value is, but the opposite type of hitter is valued 10% below, they'll go with the value play most of the time. Massively simplified of course, but I think you get the point.

 

Personally though I like guys on base, and ideally some speed on them. More runners on base, by whatever means, creates more plate appearances, more pitches thrown by the opponent, more chances to punish defensive misplays and so forth. Not making outs is quite important. So this is why, as much as I liked him, was happy to not commit to a guy like Moustakas. And why I like Turner; I just don't want it to be done on terms that make sense. Like if the Dodgers are offering a sensible (From a team perspective) deal, and the Brewers have to outdo that by a lot, I'm not very interested. If they go with Rios (Or trade for Bryant or something), and Brewers are competing on more equal terms for his signature, then I like it. Should we end up with Robertson and Urias at 3B in the end, I at least like that they know how to take their walks.

[Warning Track Power]

Personally though I like guys on base, and ideally some speed on them. More runners on base, by whatever means, creates more plate appearances, more pitches thrown by the opponent, more chances to punish defensive misplays and so forth. Not making outs is quite important. So this is why, as much as I liked him, was happy to not commit to a guy like Moustakas. And why I like Turner; I just don't want it to be done on terms that make sense. Like if the Dodgers are offering a sensible (From a team perspective) deal, and the Brewers have to outdo that by a lot, I'm not very interested. If they go with Rios (Or trade for Bryant or something), and Brewers are competing on more equal terms for his signature, then I like it. Should we end up with Robertson and Urias at 3B in the end, I at least like that they know how to take their walks.

This is a great summary of the difference between a Moose type player and Urias/Robertson. While I like the reliability and track record of Moose and his power, in 4,700 PA his career AVG/OBP is .251/.310. Urias in 422 PA is .226/.315 and Robertson in 855 PA is .234/.342. A more patient approach and taking walks appears to be the way the Brewer FO is trending and I applaud the approach, even it sacrifices the HR.

[SandyTolan]

Mentioned this in another thread, but 3B/1B Zach Green, with his 1.039 OPS, .380 OBP, and 25 HRs in 297 PA in AAA, 2019 - this is pretty compelling. SSS yes but I'm pretty sure they'll give him a long look in ST. Turns 27 this year.

[MrTPlush]

It’s not like the team is super OBP heavy. Most of the guys are likely to float around league average or worse. Wong and Yelich are the only guys I’d be confident of being over league average by a notable amount (league average is about .325). Cain could, but he really wasn’t in 2019 and is two years older now. Narvaez could be a great OBP guy if he rebounded...but jeez he was bad last year. Maybe Hiura if you are super optimistic on a big rebound?

 

It’s not like OBP is a likely weakness, but not sure it is really a strength either. I’d guess the current makeup of the team would be close to league average in OBP regards.

[SRB]

It’s not like the team is super OBP heavy. Most of the guys are likely to float around league average or worse. Wong and Yelich are the only guys I’d be confident of being over league average by a notable amount (league average is about .325). Cain could, but he really wasn’t in 2019 and is two years older now. Narvaez could be a great OBP guy if he rebounded...but jeez he was bad last year. Maybe Hiura if you are super optimistic on a big rebound?

 

It’s not like OBP is a likely weakness, but not sure it is really a strength either. I’d guess the current makeup of the team would be close to league average in OBP regards.

 

Yikes, I would hate to be so pessimistic that it is "super optimistic" to think Hiura will have an OBP above .325

[trwi7]

It’s not like the team is super OBP heavy. Most of the guys are likely to float around league average or worse. Wong and Yelich are the only guys I’d be confident of being over league average by a notable amount (league average is about .325). Cain could, but he really wasn’t in 2019 and is two years older now. Narvaez could be a great OBP guy if he rebounded...but jeez he was bad last year. Maybe Hiura if you are super optimistic on a big rebound?

 

It’s not like OBP is a likely weakness, but not sure it is really a strength either. I’d guess the current makeup of the team would be close to league average in OBP regards.

 

Yikes, I would hate to be so pessimistic that it is "super optimistic" to think Hiura will have an OBP above .325

 

It's not really that pessimistic. He's going to need to hit probably .250 to get to a .325 OBP with his walk rate and if his K rate stays in the 30-34% range he's probably going to need a .330-.350 BABIP to reach .250, which would be pretty lucky. He's a fairly low walk, high strikeout guy. That doesn't typically lead to very good OBPs unless there's some luck or wishcasting involved.

[MrTPlush]

It’s not like the team is super OBP heavy. Most of the guys are likely to float around league average or worse. Wong and Yelich are the only guys I’d be confident of being over league average by a notable amount (league average is about .325). Cain could, but he really wasn’t in 2019 and is two years older now. Narvaez could be a great OBP guy if he rebounded...but jeez he was bad last year. Maybe Hiura if you are super optimistic on a big rebound?

 

It’s not like OBP is a likely weakness, but not sure it is really a strength either. I’d guess the current makeup of the team would be close to league average in OBP regards.

 

Yikes, I would hate to be so pessimistic that it is "super optimistic" to think Hiura will have an OBP above .325

 

Did I say that, no. I said Yelich and Wong are the only guys that should confidently be notably over league average. For Hiura to be in the same conversation OBP-wise he would have to hit .260-.270. If he is less than that he is likely floating around league average OBP. I expect him to be around a .250 average unless he dramatically reduces his K rate. Thus, probably around average OBP.

[brewerfan82]

Players that OBP'd above .325 in 2020: Cain (.429), Robertson (.417), Yelich (.356), Wong (.350), Garcia (.333), Pina (.333), Vogelbach (.331)

 

Players that OBP'd avove .325 from 2018-20: Yelich (.405), Cain (.361), Robertson (.356), Narvaez (.349), Wong (.349), Hiura (.338), Vogelbach (.337)

 

Seems like we have a handful of guys that could hit that mark this year. Six of our eight projected starters (Yelich, Cain, Wong, Narvaez, Hiura, and Garcia) have done it either as recently as last year or over the past 3 seasons combined and currently a Robertson/Urias combo at 3rd has a good shot at matching that as well. Arcia's really the only guy I'd be shocked if he got on at that rate.