Justin Turner

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think there is about a 90% chance Turner will be re-signing with the Dodgers.

 

Based on what, your own opinion?

 

No, based on science.

[reillymcshane]

Turner would be fabulous to have, but I figure it's got to take at least three years to get him. If he was willing to go for two years, he'd probably have signed with the Dodgers already. Just a guess on my part.

 

Turner would fit this club really well right now, but I will add that I'm wary of a 36-year old player. His defense is now probably just average, and it's unlikely he'll get better at this point. And Turner has missed time almost every season for the past four years. Still, he's a good player who would fit a huge need for us. I'd be surprised if we splurged on him. Too bad the other options aren't great.

[brewtank34]

Unless we are going to have Turner play 1b and either use Huira as the DH or trade.

[PeaveyFury]

I think there is about a 90% chance Turner will be re-signing with the Dodgers.

 

Based on what, your own opinion?

 

No, based on science.

 

Helpful, thanks.

[Eye Black]

This is sort of counter to what's been mentioned here, but whether the Dodgers sign Bauer or Turner it will put them over the luxury tax threshold for 2021 since they are currently just $5 million shy of it. Teams are disincentivized from going over the threshold for several consecutive years (because tax penalties continue to rise significantly with each consecutive year), but over the short-term once you've gone over the luxury tax threshold anyway you might as well "blow it out of the water" so to speak. You wouldn't want to do long term deals because at some point after 2-3 years over it you'd definitely want to reset the luxury tax penalties to the lower rate (although that makes a HUGE assumption that it'll even continue to be a part of the next CBA).

 

Long story, a little shorter... the Dodgers may not want Turner to be the reason they slightly go over the luxury tax next year. Especially with other good options in their system and their other player contracts escalating in coming years, there is some incentive to not go over the luxury tax this year (but again this is assuming the new CBA continues on with a similar luxury tax format). If they do get Bauer then they've already exceeded the luxury tax limit anyway, so at that point the only additional penalty to signing Turner is a 20% "penalty" tax on Turner's contracted AAV for 2021. For the Dodgers I doubt that extra cash for this year would be overly problematic.

[DR28]

We just might be making a big run at Turner...

 

Per Morosi: Kolten Wong’s 2-year, $18 million deal with Milwaukee includes a $1MM signing bonus and $7MM salary this year, of which $5MM is deferred to 2023 and 2024, source says. The deferment could allow the #Brewers to add an additional player for 2021.

[TURBO]

We just might be making a big run at Turner...

 

Per Morosi: Kolten Wong’s 2-year, $18 million deal with Milwaukee includes a $1MM signing bonus and $7MM salary this year, of which $5MM is deferred to 2023 and 2024, source says. The deferment could allow the #Brewers to add an additional player for 2021.

 

or Ramirez...

 

[PeaveyFury]

Bauer to the Dodgers. You'd have to think the Turner domino falls someway now.

[Madhawk23]

Well, Bauer is going to the Dodgers per Heyman.

 

Does this make Turner more available now, or do the Dodgers still find the extra cash to pay for Turner's salary as well?

[SRB]

Bauer signing with the Dodgers would be perfect. Los Angeles stuck with a disastrous contract and better odds of us signing Turner!

 

It has begun!

[PeaveyFury]

Well, Bauer is going to the Dodgers per Heyman.

 

Does this make Turner more available now, or do the Dodgers still find the extra cash to pay for Turner's salary as well?

 

I think the logic is that it would keep the Dodgers from either signing him altogether, or at least topping another team's offer....

[pacopete4]

Oh pleeeeeeeeaaassseeeee make this come true!

[nate82]

Well, Bauer is going to the Dodgers per Heyman.

 

Does this make Turner more available now, or do the Dodgers still find the extra cash to pay for Turner's salary as well?

 

If it is just a 1 or 2-year deal sure the Dodgers could find the money. Also depending on if this is a short term contract which I think it is for Bauer they maybe able to afford it. The money for this year is not the issue it is next year for the Dodgers where they have to resign Seager or replace him with someone and then they have Bellinger after that and then Buehler after that. So if Turner is willing to go on a 1 or 2-year deal the Dodgers will sign him but if he wants that 3rd year I don't see the Dodgers offering that. They may not even offer him a 2-year deal at least not a full 2-year deal it would be a 1-year deal with a team option for the 2nd year.

 

This all depends on how many years Bauer is getting and how much he is getting.

[SRB]

Aren't there escalating penalties that stop teams from just blowing past the luxury tax? If this is a short-term, record-high-AAV deal for Bauer, then I find it hard to believe they are still in the mix for Turner.

[MillerParkSouth]

Bauer to Dodgers, lots of deferrals in Wong's deal, let's bring Turner in!

[Madhawk23]

Bauer is getting 40M in 2021. WOW! What was LA's projected team salary before this signing? This has to take them way over the tax threshold, correct? Would they really pony up another 12-15M for Turner now?

[Eye Black]

Aren't there escalating penalties that stop teams from just blowing past the luxury tax? If this is a short-term, record-high-AAV deal for Bauer, then I find it hard to believe they are still in the mix for Turner.

The escalating penalties are for consecutive years over the threshold. Once you go over it you might as well "blow it out of the water" (if you have the money) in the short term.

[Eye Black]

Bauer is getting 40M in 2021. WOW! What was LA's projected team salary before this signing? This has to take them way over the tax threshold, correct? Would they really pony up another 12-15M for Turner now?

They were at $205 million which was $5 million shy of the luxury tax threshold.

[DR28]

Oh come on, this really has to mean Turner to us now!!! Come on please!!

[PeaveyFury]

I said it after the Wong signing, but Wong and Turner would make for an exceptional offseason for Milwaukee in normal times, let alone considering the current environment.

[DR28]

I said it after the Wong signing, but Wong and Turner would make for an exceptional offseason for Milwaukee in normal times, let alone considering the current environment.

 

Oh hell yes!!

 

My god...

 

Wong

Cain

Yelich

Turner

Hiura

 

What a top half of the lineup!!

[SRB]

Aren't there escalating penalties that stop teams from just blowing past the luxury tax? If this is a short-term, record-high-AAV deal for Bauer, then I find it hard to believe they are still in the mix for Turner.

The escalating penalties are for consecutive years over the threshold. Once you go over it you might as well "blow it out of the water" (if you have the money) in the short term.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

 

Am I reading that wrong that if they hit +$40M they have to pay the highest overage tax and get their next draft pick moved back? This will be their second year over, so they already have to pay 30% on most of Bauer's contract plus a 12% surtax (on the overage >$20M?), and if they spend another $5M or so they will have to pay a 42.5% tax. That is a lot of money. At the very least it might even out the odds of Milwaukee being able to best the Dodgers' offer.

[DR28]

I could see the Dodgers flipping starter surplus to Cubs for KB now.

[SRB]

Aren't there escalating penalties that stop teams from just blowing past the luxury tax? If this is a short-term, record-high-AAV deal for Bauer, then I find it hard to believe they are still in the mix for Turner.

The escalating penalties are for consecutive years over the threshold. Once you go over it you might as well "blow it out of the water" (if you have the money) in the short term.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

 

Am I reading that wrong that if they hit +$40M they have to pay the highest overage tax and get their next draft pick moved back? This will be their second year over, so they already have to pay 30% on most of Bauer's contract plus a 12% surtax (on the overage >$20M?), and if they spend another $5M or so they will have to pay a 42.5% tax. That is a lot of money. At the very least it might even out the odds of Milwaukee being able to best the Dodgers' offer.

 

Actually, maybe it is:

 

Currently with Bauer putting them around $35M over they will have to pay 30% (second year over) + 12% surtax (exceeding by >$20M) = 42%

 

But if they spend another $5M that will only increase to 42.5% (exceeding by >$40M), plus the slightly lower draft pick. So not much of a difference in terms of the penalty rate.

 

So you may be right that there's no real difference at this point (though they are still paying a huge tax on any additional dollar spend).

[Eye Black]

Aren't there escalating penalties that stop teams from just blowing past the luxury tax? If this is a short-term, record-high-AAV deal for Bauer, then I find it hard to believe they are still in the mix for Turner.

The escalating penalties are for consecutive years over the threshold. Once you go over it you might as well "blow it out of the water" (if you have the money) in the short term.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

 

Am I reading that wrong that if they hit +$40M they have to pay the highest overage tax and get their next draft pick moved back? This will be their second year over, so they already have to pay 30% on most of Bauer's contract plus a 12% surtax (on the overage >$20M?), and if they spend another $5M or so they will have to pay a 42.5% tax. That is a lot of money. At the very least it might even out the odds of Milwaukee being able to best the Dodgers' offer.

Weren't the Dodgers just under the luxury tax last season?

 

EDIT: According to this they were, Link. It also says the luxury tax penalty was suspended for 2020.