Justin Turner

[MrTPlush]

Sure a guy could do it...and I said many should hit around average. Anything below .335 would go into my book as pretty much average. Once you start getting up and over .340 then we are talking above league average. At least in a notable sense.

 

There aren’t many black holes OBP wise. Garcia, Arcia, Urias, and Narvaez would be the only super worrisome ones. Though I am a bit optimistic Narvaez can rebound to some extent.

 

I’m just saying I don’t think it is much of a strength. Seems closer to league average as a whole. Though obviously guys can perform well both ways to change that one way or the other.

 

Oddly I forgot Garcia was that decent at getting on base last year. Considering most of his career is .300 or worse. Of course he had little to no power so it wasn’t much of a gain. I’d guess he may flip back to career norms, provide some pop and not have much for OBP skills.

[SRB]

It’s not like the team is super OBP heavy. Most of the guys are likely to float around league average or worse. Wong and Yelich are the only guys I’d be confident of being over league average by a notable amount (league average is about .325). Cain could, but he really wasn’t in 2019 and is two years older now. Narvaez could be a great OBP guy if he rebounded...but jeez he was bad last year. Maybe Hiura if you are super optimistic on a big rebound?

 

It’s not like OBP is a likely weakness, but not sure it is really a strength either. I’d guess the current makeup of the team would be close to league average in OBP regards.

 

Yikes, I would hate to be so pessimistic that it is "super optimistic" to think Hiura will have an OBP above .325

 

It's not really that pessimistic. He's going to need to hit probably .250 to get to a .325 OBP with his walk rate and if his K rate stays in the 30-34% range he's probably going to need a .330-.350 BABIP to reach .250, which would be pretty lucky. He's a fairly low walk, high strikeout guy. That doesn't typically lead to very good OBPs unless there's some luck or wishcasting involved.

 

Hiura is our star prospect who in the last normal season had a .407 OBP at AAA and a .368 OBP in the majors as a 22-23 year old. Obviously he had a bad 2020 so it is not crazy to expect him to be below average in 2021, I'm just saying it must be really bleak to think that Hiura actually being good again is considered "super optimistic."

 

2020 is largely meaningless to me. It's not like offense was uniformly down all over, but a huge number of established players had inexplicably poor seasons to make me take anything that happened in 2020 with a grain of salt. (And that's not just homerism because of Yelich/Hiura. It was a trend league wide.)

[trwi7]

.368 OBP in the majors as a 22-23 year old.

 

It took a .402 BABIP to get that .368 OBP. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's extremely unlikely to happen again.

[DR28]

Mentioned this in another thread, but 3B/1B Zach Green, with his 1.039 OPS, .380 OBP, and 25 HRs in 297 PA in AAA, 2019 - this is pretty compelling. SSS yes but I'm pretty sure they'll give him a long look in ST. Turns 27 this year.

 

I would love if Zach Green would take the 3B job and run with it... Big strong, kid... I mean he IS entering his prime years.

[Jaylyn]

Mentioned this in another thread, but 3B/1B Zach Green, with his 1.039 OPS, .380 OBP, and 25 HRs in 297 PA in AAA, 2019 - this is pretty compelling. SSS yes but I'm pretty sure they'll give him a long look in ST. Turns 27 this year.

 

I would love if Zach Green would take the 3B job and run with it... Big strong, kid... I mean he IS entering his prime years.

Good darkhorse candidate! Seems like a really good kid, already lived his dream of growing up a Giants fan and playing for them. Maybe the injury issues are in the past. Just cut down on the K's!!

[SRB]

.368 OBP in the majors as a 22-23 year old.

 

It took a .402 BABIP to get that .368 OBP. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's extremely unlikely to happen again.

 

He was 22/23....

 

If you think Hiura has already passed his career peak, that's fair, it's not unreasonable, I just find it a depressing approach to being a Brewers fan.

[pacopete4]

It’s very easy to be down on Hiura. I know I am. His approach and swing through rate is just flat out awful. Hope it improves but yikes.

[brewcrewdue80]

Keep in mind HRs doesn't count towards your BABIP. 30-35HRs is reasonable to a Hiura 2019 full season played.

Wingspan is something that increase with your height. Somebody 6' 3-5" likely stretching out to catch a ball is 2-3" closer than somebody that is 6' in cleats. There are numerous "bang-bang" plays fielded by the 1b.

 

Anywho its the JT thread. The mention on Green well, once you sign Turner he's no longer given a chance and likely waived.

[DR28]

Keep in mind HRs doesn't count towards your BABIP. 30-35HRs is reasonable to a Hiura 2019 full season played.

Wingspan is something that increase with your height. Somebody 6' 3-5" likely stretching out to catch a ball is 2-3" closer than somebody that is 6' in cleats. There are numerous "bang-bang" plays fielded by the 1b.

 

Anywho its the JT thread. The mention on Green well, once you sign Turner he's no longer given a chance and likely waived.

 

My excitement on signing Turner has worn off, just dont think its gonna happen.

 

Give Green/Robertson a ton of ABs in spring, may the best of Green/Robertson win the 3B job.

 

Use the “Turner money” and sign Paxton.

 

Woodruff

Burnes

Paxton

 

Yea thats a legit trio.

[MrTPlush]

It has nothing to do with his age, potential, or how good he can be. A .400 BABIP is not realistic. It isn’t even close to what any player can do consistently, period. Elite is .350 range or more. A crazy elite year (that no one does consistently) would be around .375.

 

Outside of Tim Anderson the last two years I couldn’t find a single player in recent history with a BABIP above .375 in consecutive years. Trout did it way back in 2013/2014. No one hits for a BABIP that high

[trwi7]

.368 OBP in the majors as a 22-23 year old.

 

It took a .402 BABIP to get that .368 OBP. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's extremely unlikely to happen again.

 

He was 22/23....

 

If you think Hiura has already passed his career peak, that's fair, it's not unreasonable, I just find it a depressing approach to being a Brewers fan.

 

I don't know why you keep bringing up his age when it has nothing to do with what I'm talking about.

[Austin Tatious]

I wonder what the Dodgers would want for Rios? They literally don’t need anything. And their 40 man is so deep right now they might want younger. Maybe Lutz plus a young SS like Zamora or Cantrelle. That would give them an OF who is getting close to the 40 man and a younger SS with potential who has upside but has plenty of time. Or maybe one of our young catchers although they have Ruiz high on their list already.

[titletownking]

Turner will be signing within the next few days. Most of the premier free agents are now off the board with Bauer and Ozuna having signed recently. Hopes would be one of Turner, Paxton or Walker is a Brewer within next week.

[reillymcshane]

I'm so skeptical of Turner leaving LA. It's his hometown. People love him there. He's really involved in the community, including lots of charity work, a foundation, etc., etc. He's made a lot of money in his career, so I just don't see him bailing for an extra year with Milwaukee or wherever.

 

Unless the Dodgers are really putting the screws on Turner, I'm guessing he re-signs. It just makes too much sense.

[Jopal78]

I'm so skeptical of Turner leaving LA. It's his hometown. People love him there. He's really involved in the community, including lots of charity work, a foundation, etc., etc. He's made a lot of money in his career, so I just don't see him bailing for an extra year with Milwaukee or wherever.

 

Unless the Dodgers are really putting the screws on Turner, I'm guessing he re-signs. It just makes too much sense.

 

 

Money talks. He’ll leave in a heartbeat if another team comes near where he wants to be money wise.

[brewerfan82]

I wonder if the Dodgers are trying to unload a contract before offering Turner more money so they can avoid the next tier of luxury tax penalties. Turner may know this to some extent and is holding out for that, in which case I wonder how long he's willing to wait on that. Otherwise, I hope no one bails them out and if they do sign Turner they get hit hard this year and in the coming years.

[brewmann04]

I don’t think the crew going to go with a 3 year deal.

[SRB]

It has nothing to do with his age, potential, or how good he can be. A .400 BABIP is not realistic. It isn’t even close to what any player can do consistently, period. Elite is .350 range or more. A crazy elite year (that no one does consistently) would be around .375.

 

Outside of Tim Anderson the last two years I couldn’t find a single player in recent history with a BABIP above .375 in consecutive years. Trout did it way back in 2013/2014. No one hits for a BABIP that high

 

Why exactly would he need a .400 BABIP to have a >.325 OBP??? Moving the goalposts.

 

His age is entirely relevant because the premise of this discussion is how he will hit in 2021. He is an elite prospect. It is not wildly optimistic to think he will be better in all respect going forward. (And if you think he won't be, that's unfortunate because you are basically writing him off as a bust considering he is more or less moving to 1B now, where a sub-.325 OBP is a non-starter.)

[Eye Black]

I wonder if the Dodgers are trying to unload a contract before offering Turner more money so they can avoid the next tier of luxury tax penalties. Turner may know this to some extent and is holding out for that, in which case I wonder how long he's willing to wait on that. Otherwise, I hope no one bails them out and if they do sign Turner they get hit hard this year and in the coming years.

The Dodgers definitely seem to be to dragging their feet on making the necessary moves to their 40-man roster. With Bauer they are at 41 players for 40 spots. I've seen speculation that maybe they'll place someone on the 60-day IL, otherwise they have to be either working on a trade or DFA decision right now.

[Eye Black]

I'm so skeptical of Turner leaving LA. It's his hometown. People love him there. He's really involved in the community, including lots of charity work, a foundation, etc., etc. He's made a lot of money in his career, so I just don't see him bailing for an extra year with Milwaukee or wherever.

 

Unless the Dodgers are really putting the screws on Turner, I'm guessing he re-signs. It just makes too much sense.

I agree that it makes a ton of sense for Turner to want to return to the Dodgers to finish his career. I guess it is possible though the Dodgers really aren't overly motivated to bring him back and are only offering one year at a modest salary. From the Dodgers standpoint it does seem like they wouldn't be all that bad off if they moved on from Turner right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the fact that the old gang in LA has been broken up already to some extent with Pederson and Kiki Hernandez the latest to go elsewhere would make it easier for Turner and the Dodgers to part ways now. Dodgers are now more Mookie and Belly's team now. He'll always be revered in LA but he was originally a Met and he has his ring now too.

[jerichoholicninja]

I wonder if the Dodgers are trying to unload a contract before offering Turner more money so they can avoid the next tier of luxury tax penalties. Turner may know this to some extent and is holding out for that, in which case I wonder how long he's willing to wait on that. Otherwise, I hope no one bails them out and if they do sign Turner they get hit hard this year and in the coming years.

The Dodgers definitely seem to be to dragging their feet on making the necessary moves to their 40-man roster. With Bauer they are at 41 players for 40 spots. I've seen speculation that maybe they'll place someone on the 60-day IL, otherwise they have to be either working on a trade or DFA decision right now.

 

I thought DL moves couldn't be made until well into spring training.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think the fact that the old gang in LA has been broken up already to some extent with Pederson and Kiki Hernandez the latest to go elsewhere would make it easier for Turner and the Dodgers to part ways now. Dodgers are now more Mookie and Belly's team now. He'll always be revered in LA but he was originally a Met and he has his ring now too.

 

Drafted by the Reds, traded to and made his MLB debut with the Orioles, claimed by the Mets and eventually became an average part time player there.

[MNBrew]

I wonder if the Dodgers are trying to unload a contract before offering Turner more money so they can avoid the next tier of luxury tax penalties. Turner may know this to some extent and is holding out for that, in which case I wonder how long he's willing to wait on that. Otherwise, I hope no one bails them out and if they do sign Turner they get hit hard this year and in the coming years.

The Dodgers definitely seem to be to dragging their feet on making the necessary moves to their 40-man roster. With Bauer they are at 41 players for 40 spots. I've seen speculation that maybe they'll place someone on the 60-day IL, otherwise they have to be either working on a trade or DFA decision right now.

 

I thought DL moves couldn't be made until well into spring training.

I'm pretty sure this is correct. It's too soon for a 60-day DL move. The Dodgers will have to clear space for Bauer as soon as they add him to the 40-man.

[TURBO]

I take the silence and lack of move being made on Turner to mean the Dodgers are scrambling to figure out a way to keep him. That could be scrambling on final contact numbers, roster moves, whatever, but I fully expect him to be a Dodger and we will be left with whatever we have patched together to this point.