Report: Rodgers wants new contract (Update: May not want to return in 2021)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Getting the Smith Bro's was cool! Then spending draft picks on a qb that is training to play in 2024 and a 5th round H-back that we don't need probably wasn't cool.

 

One minor correction. I know you are trying to say that Deguara was a reach in an effort to support your narrative that Gute sucks, but more than one source now has since indicated that Belichick was in love with him, and there is no way he would have lasted past their 2nd round 3 pick at #101. The Patriots ended up drafting Dalton Keene, who is a very similar, yet lower rated player than Deguara, at that spot.

 

So bash the pick, and bash the need ... fine, whatever. And the Patriots haven't exactly drafted great over the last few years, either. But saying that Deguara was a "5th rounder drafted in the 3rd" is probably a little disingenuous when he very likely would have been taken 7 picks later in the 3rd round.

[PeaveyFury]

Getting the Smith Bro's was cool! Then spending draft picks on a qb that is training to play in 2024 and a 5th round H-back that we don't need probably wasn't cool.

 

One minor correction. I know you are trying to say that Deguara was a reach in an effort to support your narrative that Gute sucks, but more than one source now has since indicated that Belichick was in love with him, and there is no way he would have lasted past their 2nd round 3 pick at #101. The Patriots ended up drafting Dalton Keene, who is a very similar, yet lower rated player than Deguara, at that spot.

 

So bash the pick, and bash the need ... fine, whatever. And the Patriots haven't exactly drafted great over the last few years, either. But saying that Deguara was a "5th rounder drafted in the 3rd" is probably a little disingenuous when he very likely would have been taken 7 picks later in the 3rd round.

 

Similar story to the 'Gary was a reach' narrative from 2019, when it later came out that the Giants were likely to take him at 17.

[adambr2]

Getting the Smith Bro's was cool! Then spending draft picks on a qb that is training to play in 2024 and a 5th round H-back that we don't need probably wasn't cool.

 

One minor correction. I know you are trying to say that Deguara was a reach in an effort to support your narrative that Gute sucks, but more than one source now has since indicated that Belichick was in love with him, and there is no way he would have lasted past their 2nd round 3 pick at #101. The Patriots ended up drafting Dalton Keene, who is a very similar, yet lower rated player than Deguara, at that spot.

 

So bash the pick, and bash the need ... fine, whatever. And the Patriots haven't exactly drafted great over the last few years, either. But saying that Deguara was a "5th rounder drafted in the 3rd" is probably a little disingenuous when he very likely would have been taken 7 picks later in the 3rd round.

 

Eh, Deguara was a pretty big reach regardless. I hope we don't base our picks on being worried that another team is in love with the guy and will scoop him up. BB is kind of a lone wolf drafting who has gone against his scouts at times and if he would have taken Deguara instead it just would have been a reach for someone else.

 

Gute doesn't suck and that definitely isn't my narrative, but the 2020 draft class looked pretty bad at the time and doesn't look much better now. Obviously a lot hinges on Jordan Love and if he ends up being a home run than the draft is a plus regardless.

[PeaveyFury]

It's tough to articulate (as others have pointed out) so many different viewpoints on this, but I'm going to try

 

1) Rodgers 2018/2019 definitely were not up to his standards. I think that some/ a lot of it was McCarthy's stale offense, and 2019 was adjusting to new guy's offense. I also absolutely agree that some of it was age related regression. which ties into ....

 

2) The Packers had every reason to at least think about a succession, and plan on a long term contingency *if* Rodgers decline was age related, and certainly at his age, it wouldn't be shocking

 

3) The Packers had just come off a 13-3 season where they made it to (but got stomped in) the NFC title game. I'm not going to put a percentage on it, but a lot of people said "we're not on the niners level". Gonna get revisionist here, but the niners didn't even make the playoffs in 2020.

 

4) You've got Aaron Rodgers, and you're coming off an NFC title game appearance. Decide if you're all in, or building for the future. Using your first round pick to get a guy who *probably* won't play for 3-4 years is an absolute future move. If you want to play for the Super BOwl in 2020, use that first round pick on something that helps you right now. It doesn't HAVE to be a WR, or even an offensive player, but something that helps you now.

 

I think each of these points is very fair and accurate. I don't, however, agree with your ensuing paragraph. And of note:

 

In one way, Gute reminds me of Ted Thompson, in that he (Seems Like) (IMO) he tries to be the Smartest Guy In The Room, reaching for picks and grabbing guys projected way later than when he picks them, trying to show everyone that he knows something that they don't.

 

Difference is, Gute has in nearly all cases, proven correct on those picks. He's hit absolute HR's in the draft thus far with most of his major picks, and he's obtained absolute steals in guys like Jenkins, Savage, etc. who weren't on a lot of fans' radars. At some point, as I've said all along, doesn't he deserve more than a little benefit of the doubt?

 

I'm not taking Aaron Rodgers side, I'm taking the side of "lets win a freaking super bowl while the all time great QB is still a Packer".

 

I think that's where we all should be, in a way. The problem is, Aaron ALSO needs to have that mindset, and for some bewildering reason (and there's zero way anyone can convince me it was due to Jake Kumerow), Aaron doesn't also recognize that HIS best chance to win another Super Bowl and truly be considered one of the absolute greats is also with Green Bay in 2021.

[homer]

I don't think the 2020 draft was all that bad. Other than Love there were 4 - 5 guys that got meaningful snaps (Dillon, Deguara, Runyan, Scott, Martin). I still think they picked Dillon and Deguara a round early but we will see if the production outweighs the draft slot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Getting the Smith Bro's was cool! Then spending draft picks on a qb that is training to play in 2024 and a 5th round H-back that we don't need probably wasn't cool.

 

One minor correction. I know you are trying to say that Deguara was a reach in an effort to support your narrative that Gute sucks, but more than one source now has since indicated that Belichick was in love with him, and there is no way he would have lasted past their 2nd round 3 pick at #101. The Patriots ended up drafting Dalton Keene, who is a very similar, yet lower rated player than Deguara, at that spot.

 

So bash the pick, and bash the need ... fine, whatever. And the Patriots haven't exactly drafted great over the last few years, either. But saying that Deguara was a "5th rounder drafted in the 3rd" is probably a little disingenuous when he very likely would have been taken 7 picks later in the 3rd round.

 

Eh, Deguara was a pretty big reach regardless. I hope we don't base our picks on being worried that another team is in love with the guy and will scoop him up. BB is kind of a lone wolf drafting who has gone against his scouts at times and if he would have taken Deguara instead it just would have been a reach for someone else.

 

Gute doesn't suck and that definitely isn't my narrative, but the 2020 draft class looked pretty bad at the time and doesn't look much better now. Obviously a lot hinges on Jordan Love and if he ends up being a home run than the draft is a plus regardless.

 

I guess it depends on your definition of "reach". If a team actually drafted him in the 3rd round, and it comes out that if they didn't, another team would have drafted him in the 3rd round, then he really wasn't a "reach", at least in the manner I look at it.

 

I'm not so sure that the 2020 draft is going to end up being all that bad either.

 

Love - we'll see

Dillon - likely timeshare with Jones, probable he's the hammer back and game closer, though. Should be ab upgrade on Williams in that role.

Deguara - Likely starting FB/H-Back this season. Likely would have played a large role based on his usage before getting hurt.

Martin - In the starting ILB mix

Runyan - In the starting G mix

Hanson - Will compete for a backup C/G spot. Can't imagine he beats out Myers for the starting C spot though

Stepaniak - In the starting G mix

Scott - Packers seem to really like him. Could potentially end up in the S mix if Amos or Savage are in the STAR role, or could be in that STAR role himself

Garvin - Developmental rusher, but right now he's the #4 OLB and is slated to see time.

 

I mean, I perhaps don't see any major impact 2021 guys there (besides Love and perhaps Dillon) but there's going to end up being a lot of snaps among that group in 2021.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Getting the Smith Bro's was cool! Then spending draft picks on a qb that is training to play in 2024 and a 5th round H-back that we don't need probably wasn't cool.

 

One minor correction. I know you are trying to say that Deguara was a reach in an effort to support your narrative that Gute sucks,

 

I definitely didn't say gute sucks. I want him to commit to building a winner. Now or in the future via rebuild if Aaron Rodgers isn't part of the plan. I did say that (imo) he reminds me in a way of TT in that he tries too hard to get "under the radar" guys. Every GM is trying to outsmart and be the best GM, but instead of grabbing guys because Bill Belicheck wanted them, just build a good team and stop reaching.

 

Sometimes it works (Gary) but often it won't.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Getting the Smith Bro's was cool! Then spending draft picks on a qb that is training to play in 2024 and a 5th round H-back that we don't need probably wasn't cool.

 

One minor correction. I know you are trying to say that Deguara was a reach in an effort to support your narrative that Gute sucks,

 

I definitely didn't say gute sucks. I want him to commit to building a winner. Now or in the future via rebuild if Aaron Rodgers isn't part of the plan. I did say that (imo) he reminds me in a way of TT in that he tries too hard to get "under the radar" guys. Every GM is trying to outsmart and be the best GM, but instead of grabbing guys because Bill Belicheck wanted them, just build a good team and stop reaching.

 

Sometimes it works (Gary) but often it won't.

 

Deguara played in two games, and looked to be carving out a big role in the offense before going down with his knee injury. I repeat that I'm not sure its accurate to say he was a reach when drafted, and the book is still wide open in regards to his present and future value/importance.

 

Also, who exactly is determining that he was a reach? Are you basing that on some draft talking head, or simply on Deguara's positional value? I get there are some positions, like Kicker or long snapper or something, that simply don't have the snaps per game to deserve a high round pick, but if the Packers determine that they need a FB/H-Back/move TE to make their offense run ideally, then I want them to get the best one they can get. I think that's what they think they have in Deguara.

[adambr2]

The offense seemed to get by just fine without Deguara last season. I'd maintain it was a reach because in the expected role for Deguara you are basically describing Marcades Lewis and these types are available for cheap deals every year and don't warrant 3rd round picks. If he had George Kittle upside, I'd feel differently.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The shape he keeps himself in, Lewis will probably be able to play til he's 40. (Possibly joking)

[homer]

Re: Deguara

In 107 mocks, his ADP was 195

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The offense seemed to get by just fine without Deguara last season. I'd maintain it was a reach because in the expected role for Deguara you are basically describing Marcades Lewis and these types are available for cheap deals every year and don't warrant 3rd round picks. If he had George Kittle upside, I'd feel differently.

 

Not at all. The role that Deguara was drafted to play, and what Lewis does, is 100% different. Hell, what Kittle does is 100% different too. Deguara is very similar to Kyle Juszczyk in both size and skills/projection. Juszczyk is listed as a FB, but he is definitely a move TE/H-Back in that 49er offense, and plays a huge role in it. Not all TEs are created equal.

 

And Juszczyk was a 4th rounder for the Ravens back in 2013. And he just re-signed with the Niners for 5 years and $27 million at age 30. I'd say he was a good value where he was picked.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Re: Deguara

In 107 mocks, his ADP was 195

 

And he was slated to play a key role in an offense that wound up being the best in the NFL last year until a knee injury ended his season. If a 3rd round pick ends up being essentially a week 1 starter on the depth chart for his position after a 3 week COVID-shortened training camp, it's a pretty good indicator the player was at minimum not drafted too early and probably has a very bright future. Once practices and games start happening, previous mock drafts mean zilch.

[adambr2]

"Slated to play a key role in an offense that wound up being the best in the NFL"

 

And Juszczyk was a 4th rounder for the Ravens back in 2013. And he just re-signed with the Niners for 5 years and $27 million at age 30. I'd say he was a good value where he was picked.

 

Both giving Deguara credit for an offense that he did not even actually participate in, and comparing Deguara to Kyle Juszczyk who is basically a one of a kind breed the last decade or so, are enormous reaches right now based on a single training camp IMO.

 

I thought Deguara was a reach for various reasons when the pick was made, and nothing has occurred since then to make me think it was a good value. If I end up being wrong about it, I'll be happy to own it. But there's certainly nothing to retract based on a few snaps in 2 regular season games.

[homer]

Re: Deguara

In 107 mocks, his ADP was 195

 

And he was slated to play a key role in an offense that wound up being the best in the NFL last year until a knee injury ended his season. If a 3rd round pick ends up being essentially a week 1 starter on the depth chart for his position after a 3 week COVID-shortened training camp, it's a pretty good indicator the player was at minimum not drafted too early and probably has a very bright future. Once practices and games start happening, previous mock drafts mean zilch.

 

It's about value at the time you pick not what he turns into later on. A guy can be a productive NFL player and still be a draft reach.

[SeaBass]

Regarding my deleted/moderated comment about mock drafts, when I said something along the lines of "you're a fantasy football expert" that was aimed at mock draft authors, not board members. Apologies if that was taken as an attack on anyone, I should have made that clearer.

 

I consume mock drafts too so I'm not above anything here, I just tend to be skeptical of projected draft positions or anything else, especially when it comes to rounds after the 1st round. Mock drafts are extremely hit and miss even just in round 1, trusting some mock draft author to have a bead on who should be drafted in the 3rd round or 5th or 6th rounds is a giant leap of faith.

 

Further, I have no doubt there are some mock draft authors/publications that have access to pro level talent scouts whether they are employed by NFL teams or not. Here's the thing, every scout has differing opinions for every player, just because 17 out of 25 scouts think a guy should be drafted in the 5th round doesn't make them right just because there are only 8 that disagree with them. Any NFL team is drafting by their own draft board, not the 31 other team's draft boards and it only takes 1 team to ruin their plan to take a particular player.

 

Draft value is kind of a meaningless concept while at the same time being a meaningful concept. It's all a gamble. How long can I wait to take this player I really like before someone might take him before I can. In the end getting the player you really like and feel fits your system is the important part, not whether there's a group of experts out there, real or imagined, that disagree with you.

 

So that's where I'm coming from when I indicate I'm not a fan of calling draft picks reaches. I understand that it's something that's easy to say when exploring whether a team is making valuable moves but all too often draft position seems to be valued more than whether the player can actually be a positive contributor to a team. That's something that probably shouldn't be judged after one injury shortened season. Or even a season where the player doesn't see the field as much in the first season like with Gary or Dillon.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I thought Deguara was a reach for various reasons when the pick was made, and nothing has occurred since then to make me think it was a good value. If I end up being wrong about it, I'll be happy to own it. But there's certainly nothing to retract based on a few snaps in 2 regular season games.

 

I personally thought that Jaire Alexander was a reach when they took him, simply because I'm not a big fan of (and the Packers have a terrible history when drafting) undersized CBs. So I get it. If you don't like the player's value in regard to where he was taken in the draft, that's a personal opinion. I guess my argument stems from calling him a reach because some draft projections had him going in the 5th, when reality indicates he more than likely wouldn't have even made it to the 4th.

 

Will Deguara end up being the Packers version of Kyle Juszczyk? Who knows? Odds are that he won't, as Juszczyk is a star, quite possibly the best H-Back in the NFL, and a player that any team would love to have. But I am 100% convinced that the Packers drafted Deguara with the intent of deploying him in the same fashion that the 49ers deploy Juszczyk. His story is yet to be written. The Packers have taken plenty of players in the 3rd round at premium, more high-value positions, who ended up not doing much of anything. If Deguara can carve out a sizable role in a good offense over the next 4-5 seasons, picking him at the end of the 3rd round is a win, regardless of if he becomes a star.

[Fear The Chorizo]

"Slated to play a key role in an offense that wound up being the best in the NFL"

 

And Juszczyk was a 4th rounder for the Ravens back in 2013. And he just re-signed with the Niners for 5 years and $27 million at age 30. I'd say he was a good value where he was picked.

 

Both giving Deguara credit for an offense that he did not even actually participate in, and comparing Deguara to Kyle Juszczyk who is basically a one of a kind breed the last decade or so, are enormous reaches right now based on a single training camp IMO.

 

I thought Deguara was a reach for various reasons when the pick was made, and nothing has occurred since then to make me think it was a good value. If I end up being wrong about it, I'll be happy to own it. But there's certainly nothing to retract based on a few snaps in 2 regular season games.

 

I'm not giving Deguara credit for an offense he didn't have the opportunity to play a full season in due to injury - I am giving him credit for earning the significant role he must have earned through his rookie training camp with that offense that proved to have alot of talent on it. His name was all over the 2020 training camp reports for good reasons.

 

I'll just leave well enough alone regarding Deguara and whether it was a travesty that he was picked 75 or so slots above his perceived mock value, because I'm guessing this has zilch to do with the point of the thread...

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think everybody here wants every draft pick to be successful, whether we liked the pick or not. I think more so than they didn't like the draft pick, a lot of people were confused by the drafting of Jordan Love. I know I was. I don't dislike Jordan Love. I disliked the selection. I disliked trading up to get him.

 

I don't dislike Deguera. He probably can be an okay or even good Hback. I'm not going to compare him to other guys and try to slot him into what I want him to be. He is what he is and he'll be whatever he is when he's healthy. I want him to be successful because he's a Green Bay packer. I can both dislike the pick, think the pick was wrong, but now I want him to be successful because he's a packer.

 

If you're continuously taking 5th round picks in the third round, you're going to be at a talent deficit. I don't think that's what gute is doing every pick. I get it that people may not like the word reach, In this context. That's fine. But there are people who say let's take the best player available, and then when they take a guy that they want instead of the best player available, we suddenly talk about cool we covered a position of need and that's important. We want our cake and we want to eat it too.

 

Maybe Jordan love was the best player available. But was he the best player available to a team with super bowl aspirations? I know I can look back on the draft night's thread and Facebook and twitter and almost everybody either disliked or was confused by that pick. Not everybody, but definitely a majority of us had questions about the pick. Now we are all packer fans and we are trying to circle our heads around to the justification for taking Jordan Love.

 

Like I said. If we get offered a huge stable of draft picks for Rogers, I'll be happy if they take it. We'll suffer through a couple garbage seasons. I'll root for Jordan love to be successful. I won't expect it but I'll hope for it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you're continuously taking 5th round picks in the third round, you're going to be at a talent deficit. I don't think that's what gute is doing every pick. I get it that people may not like the word reach, In this context. That's fine. But there are people who say let's take the best player available, and then when they take a guy that they want instead of the best player available, we suddenly talk about cool we covered a position of need and that's important. We want our cake and we want to eat it too.

 

"Continuously"? I'm confused now. Yet again you are saying, almost factually it seems, that Deguara was a "5th round pick". Truth is, he was was likely never, ever going to get past the Patriots at #101. I guess that is the point I'm having difficulty getting past here. He isn't a "5th round pick" simply because the Packers likely never would have the opportunity to draft him in the 5th round, regardless of what pre-draft projections said.

 

Do you have other examples of the Packers "continuously taking 5th round picks in the third round"? Guys like Sternberger, Burks and Adams were all 3rd round picks, but I don't remember any "reach" talk with any of them. Adams ended up being a bust, while Burks and Sternberger are on their way there. In the end, after about the first 10-15 picks of the 1st round, the NFL draft is kind of a crap shoot. If you can find a guy in the 2nd round on that makes sense and can play a prominent role on your team for several seasons, it's hard not to make the pick.

[PeaveyFury]

If you're continuously taking 5th round picks in the third round, you're going to be at a talent deficit..

 

Yeah, this comment is a little puzzling. 'Continuously' is a big stretch, and is there anyone that looks at the Packers' roster right now and sees a talent deficit?

 

And I'll agree with all of the comments on mock drafts. Drafts are comically graded too early, and based off projections made by random people who have no clue what teams' draft boards look like.

 

Is Zach Baun a steal in the 3rd because he was projected as a 1st? No, because mock draft-ers didn't have a clue about his character concerns.

 

Similarly, if you pick a guy because you know that another team right behind you also really likes him, is he truly a reach?

 

Finally, when Dillon and Jones combine for 25 rushing TDs and 2000 yards this year, will anyone care whether Dillon was projected to go in the 3rd vs. being taken in the late-2nd?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'll take the under on 25 TD's. Just a hunch.

 

And.....mocks and draft grades. People read them, absorb them, read the scouting reports, and then when we draft a guy, we have 11 different scouting reports posted within minutes. "this guy loves the pick". "This scouting report RAVES about this guy". We pick out the stuff we like, and disregard the stuff that we don't.

 

"this mock actually had this guy going in the 2nd round!"

 

Eric Stokes was projected for mid 2nd, and when we picked him, we had people IMMEDIATELY jumping on the "well....to heck with the mocks, he's fast!" stuff. That's fine. Mocks are just fantasy football players who don't know anything about football. (they know more than I do, to be fair). Like Homer said, in 107 mocks, Deguera averaged mid 5th. I mean.... it wasn't one guy who was like "I think he's a fifth rounder. SOME of those guys know what they're talking about, I figure.

 

Here's what I said, and as I said, it's my opinion. Gute reminds me of TT, in a way. He's trying too hard to be the smartest guy in the room. I didn't say "Gute sucks" or "he hasn't done a good job". But I think if we're gonna win a super bowl, he needs to (IMO!!!) stop trying to outsmart himself and GO FOR IT. That's what I've said.

 

I honestly hope our GM isn't using mock drafts from fantasy football players. I'm pretty sure he's not. To be honest, I'm pretty sure it's not "fantasy football players" that are putting together some of these. But I'm betting when they say "most draft boards have this guy going in the fifth round", that's pretty accurate. Once they hit the field, it doesn't matter what round they were drafted in. They're all just guys.

 

I feel like I'm straying way off topic here. Mostly which is Rodgers and the Packers and Gute and everyone being on the same page.

[PeaveyFury]

Here's what I said, and as I said, it's my opinion. Gute reminds me of TT, in a way. He's trying too hard to be the smartest guy in the room. I didn't say "Gute sucks" or "he hasn't done a good job". But I think if we're gonna win a super bowl, he needs to (IMO!!!) stop trying to outsmart himself and GO FOR IT. That's what I've said.

 

To be fair, I probably should have set the bar at 20 TDs, so you're probably right on the under.

 

But, what you said above isn't the limit of what you said, and that's where I'm taking issue- you went on to say that he's "continuously taking 5th rounders in the 3rd", which as others pointed out, isn't true. You further said that leads to a lack of talent on the roster, which again, simply isn't true. This roster is completely loaded, and that's completely to the contrary of what the roster looked like when Gute took over.

 

I get not liking a pick or a philosophy, but when they've gone off the path with their selections, they've been right the vast majority of the time. In short, Gute is making a legitimate case that HE IS one of the smartest guys in the room.

[homer]

 

Eric Stokes was projected for mid 2nd, and when we picked him, we had people IMMEDIATELY jumping on the "well....to heck with the mocks, he's fast!" stuff. That's fine. Mocks are just fantasy football players who don't know anything about football. (they know more than I do, to be fair). Like Homer said, in 107 mocks, Deguera averaged mid 5th. I mean.... it wasn't one guy who was like "I think he's a fifth rounder. SOME of those guys know what they're talking about, I figure.

.

 

I think there is something to be said about the wisdom of crowds. Some of those mocks are done by goobers who probably don't know half the players but there are some legit talent evaluators and ex-scouts that do them too. That's why I like the aggregated ADP.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

I get not liking a pick or a philosophy, but when they've gone off the path with their selections, they've been right the vast majority of the time. In short, Gute is making a legitimate case that HE IS one of the smartest guys in the room.

 

I'll say sometimes. But it's also the nature of the NFL that a lot of guys flunk out, so there's that too.

 

I just hope we don't get to yet another NFC title game and get whiplash from being down 14 - 17 - 21 points in the blink of an eye yet again. Being just good enough to get their butts whooped in the conference title game is starting to feel like a rerun.