Burnes to White Sox rumors

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Blue Jays always seem interested in acquiring pitching, what about spinning a deal with them? Looks like they might be starting to go for it with the signing of Springer. The Jays can then go out and sign another bat to replace what they trade away.

 

Blue Jays Receive:

RHP Corbin Burnes

 

Brewers Receive:

2B/3B Cavan Biggio

1B Rowdy Tellez

RHP Simeon Woods Richardson

 

The Brewers get long term solutions at first and third or second with the option of trading Hiura or moving him to a new position. They also get a high upside arm that’s in the top 100 that could probably start in AA and might see MLB time by year’s end in 2021.

 

3B Biggio (L)

CF Cain ®

LF Yelich (L)

2B Hiura ®

1B Tellez (L)

RF Garcia ®

C Narvaez (L)

SS Arcia/Urias ®

P

 

That could be a pretty dang good lineup. The rotation would certainly need some help though.

 

Edit to add I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to taking a step back this season if we are having a lower payroll anyway. Get some young guys on the team, let guys like Woods Richardson, Kelly, Small, File, and Bettinger develop and get a shot in the bigs, and go for it again in 2022.

 

Tellez and Vogelbach are pretty similar type hitters. Tellez is better defensively, but not substantially. Both are guys you'd want to avoid playing at 1B if you have a better defensive option.

[nate82]

The Blue Jays always seem interested in acquiring pitching, what about spinning a deal with them? Looks like they might be starting to go for it with the signing of Springer. The Jays can then go out and sign another bat to replace what they trade away.

 

Blue Jays Receive:

RHP Corbin Burnes

 

Brewers Receive:

2B/3B Cavan Biggio

1B Rowdy Tellez

RHP Simeon Woods Richardson

 

The Brewers get long term solutions at first and third or second with the option of trading Hiura or moving him to a new position. They also get a high upside arm that’s in the top 100 that could probably start in AA and might see MLB time by year’s end in 2021.

 

 

I don't think the Blue Jays make this trade. If they are going to make a trade for someone like Burnes it will be for all prospects versus someone already on their roster. Maybe the Blue Jays do a trade that the Brewers did for Greinke but I think they would be looking at receiving a replacement for who they are losing especially since they are losing two players on their MLB roster. I think something like SS Groshans, RHP Woods Richardson, 3B Hiraldo and 3B Smith would be something the Blue Jays would accept. I don't believe they would include Biggio at all in a deal for Burnes and would instead build it around prospects.

[DR28]

Just read on Twitter that as of Tuesday afternoon, this so called source said Burnes to White Sox rumors were picking up and moving close to a deal.

 

I HOPE TO HELL THESE RUMORS ARE 100% BS!!!! We need to build our staff around Woody, Burnes, Williams and Hader.

[KeithStone53151]

Wow, I just spent way too much time trolling through twitter/reddit/white sox boards. What a waste of minutes of my life. The primary "leaks" from wannabe twitter insiders seem to be a trade centered around madrigal or vaughn with a few other top 10 types included. Madrigal only makes sense if we've completely given up on hiura's defense at 2b, or if a third team gets included that takes madrigal for a position that's a better fit for us. Vaughn of course would be a good fit, but then you're talking about trading a 25 year old cy young finalist with 4 years of team control for an undersized rh 1b only. I just can't see Stearns doing that, Vaughn is basically the completely opposite of a Stearns guy.

 

The closest comparable trade I can find is actually the Chris Sale trade. Sale was much more established at the time, had 3 years of control, and was 27. It's safe to say Sale had more established value while Burnes clearly has the higher ceiling/ability to accumulate the most WAR/$ and probably WAR/season. Considering the differences, Sale netted Moncada and Kopech and 2 other pieces. Moncada was literally the number 1 prospect in baseball at the time, and Kopech had an arm to drool over and just got done wrecking high A at age 20. It looks like pipeline had him 30th overall to end 2016 season. Vaughn currently ranks the number 11 prospect and Madrigal the number 30 prospect in baseball according to pipeline. I get that prospect lists are not how teams value players, but based on these listings...I think it's pretty easy to see the packages being discussed are much lower for Burnes in comparison to Sale. Also worth noting, i think most would generally agree that the Sale trade ended up being a win for both sides.

 

My hunch is this is just nonsense and gets nowhere close to happening. If it does, I'd bet heavily that we have 2 serious headliners in the trade similar to the Sale trade. My guess would be Vaughn and a pitcher(Cease/Kopech). If that's the offer, I think I prefer to keep the 25 year old cy young favorite.

[brewmann04]

Totally agree sounds like someone just throwing out names to get it read.

[wibadgers23]

Sounds like HighHeat moved over to the White Sox message boards.

[Eye Black]

The closest comparable trade I can find is actually the Chris Sale trade. Sale was much more established at the time, had 3 years of control, and was 27.

Shelby Miller had an arguably better and longer track record at the time of his trade to the Diamondbacks (than Burnes does currently), but he was 25 years old and had 3 years of control remaining when the trade occurred (Burnes is 26 and has 4 years of control).

 

Edit: Shelby Miller was also initially traded by the Cardinals at age 24 (and four years of control) for a return that primarily included one season of Jason Heyward.

[Soupbone]

I have as high of hopes for Burnes as anyone but considering him an "ace" based on 2018 where he was used as a relief pitcher, 2019 where nothing went right and a 9 start 2020 seems a bit hopeful. If a good package is offered I think you have to listen as we really aren't sure who CB really is.

[adambr2]

I have as high of hopes for Burnes as anyone but considering him an "ace" based on 2018 where he was used as a relief pitcher, 2019 where nothing went right and a 9 start 2020 seems a bit hopeful. If a good package is offered I think you have to listen as we really aren't sure who CB really is.

 

I'm always open to listening on any player but I'm absolutely pricing him to any interested party as a young, controllable ace. It isn't like he had a smoke and mirrors type breakout. We always knew he had the stuff and potential to be this guy.

[KeithStone53151]

The closest comparable trade I can find is actually the Chris Sale trade. Sale was much more established at the time, had 3 years of control, and was 27.

Shelby Miller had an arguably better and longer track record at the time of his trade to the Diamondbacks (than Burnes does currently), but he was 25 years old and had 3 years of control remaining when the trade occurred (Burnes is 26 and has 4 years of control).

 

Edit: Shelby Miller was also initially traded by the Cardinals at age 24 (and four years of control) for a return that primarily included one season of Jason Heyward.

 

Good call, also note Miller was traded from the Braves to the Dbacks for quite a haul. I know the haul included Dansby swanson. So i guess those 3 trades. I'll note though, Miller's stuff was not as good as what Burnes is currently throwing. Stuff does matter. Burnes stuff is closer to the caliber of Sale than Miller.

[DR28]

And I was watching a podcast last night regarding this rumor... The White Sox dude that they were giving up too much in the trade... Too much??????? Good one!

 

Rumored trade is Burnes and Narvaez to Sox... Madrigal, Zach Collins, Cody Heuer and Jared Kelley to Brewers.

[TURBO]

I will absolutely puke all over my keyboard if Burnes is traded.

 

So many years of trotting out garbage to the mound and unable to grow any pitchers in the farm, now we finally have Woodruff and Burnes and we might trade one?

 

*gag*

 

I am going to talk myself into believing this will never happen...

[DR28]

I will absolutely puke all over my keyboard if Burnes is traded.

 

So many years of trotting out garbage to the mound and unable to grow any pitchers in the farm, now we finally have Woodruff and Burnes and we might trade one?

 

*gag*

 

I am going to talk myself into believing this will never happen...

 

Totally agree, I love Burnes we need to keep him and Woodruff together as long as we can.

 

I just don't believe any of the rumor, we have no need for Madrigal, Collins is garbage, Heuer would be nice in our pen but our pen is already loaded, Kelley is just a prospect.

[wibadgers23]

The conversation doesn’t even start for me unless Vaughn is included and even then, I would be very hesitant to trade Burnes.

[JosephC]

The conversation doesn’t even start for me unless Vaughn is included and even then, I would be very hesitant to trade Burnes.

 

I agree. I am a big fan of Madrigal but he doesn't make any sense when looking at the Brewer's roster. When matching up the Brewer's needs with what the White Sox have to offer, it seems like Vaughn is the one necessary piece needed to get a deal done.

 

For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Burnes but, as a small market team, I don't believe there is ever a situation where a player is just automatically removed from the table. If the offer is right, trading Burnes could be a big benefit to the team depending on what Burnes does in the future and the return from a trade partner. As good as Burnes was last year, just two years ago he was so bad that he was getting shelled in AAA. Maybe he's turned the corner, but maybe not. I'm not in favor of trading him, but if it would happen it could very well be the case of Stearns hitting the jackpot and selling Burnes when he had reached his top peak value. Nobody know for sure what the future holds.

 

I don't think there is enough credibility to these rumors to make me want to crank surplus values on rumored names involved. But just looking at the baseballtradevalues site-

 

White Sox get-

RHP-Corbin Burnes

Brewers get-

1B-Andrew Vaughn

RHP-Codi Heuer

RHP-Jared Kelley

+ one more prospect, likely in the 15-30 area of the White Sox top prospect list

 

If Vaughn turns into a legitimate plus MLB everyday player, it's very likely this would be a good deal for Milwaukee because you are getting 6 years (3 cheap) of an everyday plus starting lineup regular versus 4 years (1 cheap) of a potentially star starting pitcher. So the quality you would lose from Burnes would likely be made up by the two extra cheap years of the everyday player. Add in that you get a relief pitcher that has been pretty much dominant since changing his release point and pretty much owned major league hitters last year. Then you get the White Sox second round pick who has big, big upside (probably grades a big higher than Antoine Kelly and would likely land on most Brewer top prospect lists at #4). And then there would probably be a fourth piece, probably a high upside youngster that hasn't gotten past rookie ball yet. Sometimes I just laugh the combinations that can be achieved using the baseballtradevalues site, but this one doesn't seem at that ridiculous at face value.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be in favor of that deal, but wouldn't be moaning and groaning if that deal was made. That is a trade that seems to make pretty good sense for the Brewers.

[DR28]

The conversation doesn’t even start for me unless Vaughn is included and even then, I would be very hesitant to trade Burnes.

 

I agree. I am a big fan of Madrigal but he doesn't make any sense when looking at the Brewer's roster. When matching up the Brewer's needs with what the White Sox have to offer, it seems like Vaughn is the one necessary piece needed to get a deal done.

 

For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Burnes but, as a small market team, I don't believe there is ever a situation where a player is just automatically removed from the table. If the offer is right, trading Burnes could be a big benefit to the team depending on what Burnes does in the future and the return from a trade partner. As good as Burnes was last year, just two years ago he was so bad that he was getting shelled in AAA. Maybe he's turned the corner, but maybe not. I'm not in favor of trading him, but if it would happen it could very well be the case of Stearns hitting the jackpot and selling Burnes when he had reached his top peak value. Nobody know for sure what the future holds.

 

I don't think there is enough credibility to these rumors to make me want to crank surplus values on rumored names involved. But just looking at the baseballtradevalues site-

 

White Sox get-

RHP-Corbin Burnes

Brewers get-

1B-Andrew Vaughn

RHP-Codi Heuer

RHP-Jared Kelley

+ one more prospect, likely in the 15-30 area of the White Sox top prospect list

 

If Vaughn turns into a legitimate plus MLB everyday player, it's very likely this would be a good deal for Milwaukee because you are getting 6 years (3 cheap) of an everyday plus starting lineup regular versus 4 years (1 cheap) of a potentially star starting pitcher. So the quality you would lose from Burnes would likely be made up by the two extra cheap years of the everyday player. Add in that you get a relief pitcher that has been pretty much dominant since changing his release point and pretty much owned major league hitters last year. Then you get the White Sox second round pick who has big, big upside (probably grades a big higher than Antoine Kelly and would likely land on most Brewer top prospect lists at #4). And then there would probably be a fourth piece, probably a high upside youngster that hasn't gotten past rookie ball yet. Sometimes I just laugh the combinations that can be achieved using the baseballtradevalues site, but this one doesn't seem at that ridiculous at face value.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be in favor of that deal, but wouldn't be moaning and groaning if that deal was made. That is a trade that seems to make pretty good sense for the Brewers.

 

Hate to say this but I would actually be ok with that trade... But my god, it would suck to deal Burnes.

[Eye Black]

The conversation doesn’t even start for me unless Vaughn is included and even then, I would be very hesitant to trade Burnes.

 

I agree. I am a big fan of Madrigal but he doesn't make any sense when looking at the Brewer's roster. When matching up the Brewer's needs with what the White Sox have to offer, it seems like Vaughn is the one necessary piece needed to get a deal done.

 

For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Burnes but, as a small market team, I don't believe there is ever a situation where a player is just automatically removed from the table. If the offer is right, trading Burnes could be a big benefit to the team depending on what Burnes does in the future and the return from a trade partner. As good as Burnes was last year, just two years ago he was so bad that he was getting shelled in AAA. Maybe he's turned the corner, but maybe not. I'm not in favor of trading him, but if it would happen it could very well be the case of Stearns hitting the jackpot and selling Burnes when he had reached his top peak value. Nobody know for sure what the future holds.

 

I don't think there is enough credibility to these rumors to make me want to crank surplus values on rumored names involved. But just looking at the baseballtradevalues site-

 

White Sox get-

RHP-Corbin Burnes

Brewers get-

1B-Andrew Vaughn

RHP-Codi Heuer

RHP-Jared Kelley

+ one more prospect, likely in the 15-30 area of the White Sox top prospect list

 

If Vaughn turns into a legitimate plus MLB everyday player, it's very likely this would be a good deal for Milwaukee because you are getting 6 years (3 cheap) of an everyday plus starting lineup regular versus 4 years (1 cheap) of a potentially star starting pitcher. So the quality you would lose from Burnes would likely be made up by the two extra cheap years of the everyday player. Add in that you get a relief pitcher that has been pretty much dominant since changing his release point and pretty much owned major league hitters last year. Then you get the White Sox second round pick who has big, big upside (probably grades a big higher than Antoine Kelly and would likely land on most Brewer top prospect lists at #4). And then there would probably be a fourth piece, probably a high upside youngster that hasn't gotten past rookie ball yet. Sometimes I just laugh the combinations that can be achieved using the baseballtradevalues site, but this one doesn't seem at that ridiculous at face value.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be in favor of that deal, but wouldn't be moaning and groaning if that deal was made. That is a trade that seems to make pretty good sense for the Brewers.

Very well said JC. I am not opposed to trading Burnes, but it would have to make sense from the Brewers standpoint. The problem with a lot of the rumored "packages" I've seen is they don't make the Brewers better in the short term or long term after you consider the loss of Burnes. I would be incredibly disappointed if the Brewers traded Burnes to the White Sox and didn't receive Vaughn as the headlining return piece.

[wntrtxn21]

Very well said JC. I am not opposed to trading Burnes, but it would have to make sense from the Brewers standpoint. The problem with a lot of the rumored "packages" I've seen is they don't make the Brewers better in the short term or long term after you consider the loss of Burnes. I would be incredibly disappointed if the Brewers traded Burnes to the White Sox and didn't receive Vaughn as the headlining return piece.

 

No way in the world I'd trade Burnes for a bunch of maybes and give up on the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Kelley is just starting his career and who knows if he ever makes it. Vaughn hasn't exactly set A ball (.252/.349) on fire. Heuer is a relief pitcher. IMO the Brewers can win the NL Central this year by keeping Burnes and adding a couple of offensive pieces. When you have two stud pitchers at the top of the order and a good pen, the time is now to go for it all.

[baumer16]

I agree that we’re a 1B and 3B away from being really good but it’s become pretty clear that we don’t have any money. And very little prospect capital to work with. So the only options are really to buy low on a few guys and hope they turn out decent, which we did last year and it didn’t work. Or do a small rebuild and go at it next year when we have money from fans sitting in seats. It sucks but we’re a small market team and option 2 seems like the way they are thinking of going.

[Austin Tatious]

I’ve stayed out of this thread but I’d just say that Burnes has high end potential based on his peripherals and “stuff.” Those portend huge upside. He’s the type of potential stud you dream and hope you can develop.

 

He’s under control and cost controlled.

 

It literally makes no sense to deal him. So if it’s happens, you’d need a large overpay way beyond some sort of statistical, WAR like analysis or what those silly surplus value websites say. This is also not about what he did in 2018 or 2019. It’s forward looking and about what he’s projected to be.

 

If they got equal value for him and they trade him, I’d go ballistic. No, this needs to be a huge haul. We are not in the same universe as Shelby Miller and guys like that where people try to poo poo the return. It’s not about numbers. It’s time to dig deeper. Burnes can be a true ace and elite pitcher with lots of control yet. Scarcity plays into it, big time.

 

Corbin Burnes’ profile is that of someone who is the most difficult to commodity to find, and then you couple it with control and cost certainty. The return would have to be gigantic. Otherwise, no point in doing it.

 

That’s fine if you want to disagree with me but there is no way I trade him for statistical even returns. Rick Hahn went to Harvard Law. He’s not an idiot. You just tell him “we are not inclined to move him, and if we do, we want an over pay, which here would be massive. If you still want him because of your depth of talent, we are open but don’t try to convince us on equal value because that will never happen. If that were the case, no shot we would trade him because he’s the hardest thing to find in baseball.” Truth be told based on stuff, he could easily be our number one starter with Woody the best number two in team history. That’s a very reasonable possibility.

[JosephC]

 

Vaughn hasn't exactly set A ball (.252/.349) on fire.

 

That's why I wouldn't do this particular deal. I'm not convinced on Vaughn. But for people who like Vaughn, then I think the swap would be pretty fair and realistic. And Vaughn is #13 on MLB Pipeline's top 100, so it's obvious that there are a ton of baseball people who like him.

[Austin Tatious]

 

Vaughn hasn't exactly set A ball (.252/.349) on fire.

 

That's why I wouldn't do this particular deal. I'm not convinced on Vaughn. But for people who like Vaughn, then I think the swap would be pretty fair and realistic. And Vaughn is #13 on MLB Pipeline's top 100, so it's obvious that there are a ton of baseball people who like him.

 

Agree. If all it took was Vaughn, Kelley and Heuer for Burnes, the White Sox would turn the card into the league office so fast your head would spin. If that’s all it took, this deal would have been done long ago.

 

If there truly is any talking here, Rick Hahn knows what he’s got to do. He’s not going to waste time with lowballs.

[brewcrewdue80]

If Im Stearns Id be asking for Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn. As someone mentioned Sale got them Moncada and Kopech plus. You can't give up the kind of pitching talent Burnes is without the wow factor. He just may become the next Max Scherzer who the White Sox could afford to pay down the road.

[JosephC]

If Im Stearns Id be asking for Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn. As someone mentioned Sale got them Moncada and Kopech plus. You can't give up the kind of pitching talent Burnes is without the wow factor. He just may become the next Max Scherzer who the White Sox could afford to pay down the road.

 

When Chris Sale was traded, he had finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting for 5 consecutive years and had 3 years of team control at a bargain price of 39.5 million. Just 2 years ago Burnes was getting bombed in AAA. They are not the same thing.

 

Chris Sale at time of trade = 27 years old, 1110 major league innings, 3.00 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 4.8 K/BB, 30.1 bWAR, 27.1 fWAR

Corbin Burnes as of today = 26 years old, 146 2/3 innings, 4.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB, 0.5 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR

[KeithStone53151]

If Im Stearns Id be asking for Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn. As someone mentioned Sale got them Moncada and Kopech plus. You can't give up the kind of pitching talent Burnes is without the wow factor. He just may become the next Max Scherzer who the White Sox could afford to pay down the road.

 

When Chris Sale was traded, he had finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting for 5 consecutive years and had 3 years of team control at a bargain price of 39.5 million. Just 2 years ago Burnes was getting bombed in AAA. They are not the same thing.

 

Chris Sale at time of trade = 27 years old, 1110 major league innings, 3.00 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 4.8 K/BB, 30.1 bWAR, 27.1 fWAR

Corbin Burnes as of today = 26 years old, 146 2/3 innings, 4.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB, 0.5 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR

 

It's different, but it also isn't different. The white sox can't exactly go to the table and say "we like burnes, we want to trade for him...but these are the reasons we should get a discount". If the white sox come to the table wanting to trade for burnes, it's going to be because they think he's much more likely to be 2020 burnes going forward than 2019 burnes.

 

The established value of sale is why we would merely get a great package in trade and not an other worldly package like the red Sox gave up. The likelihood of sale continuing to be a top 10 pitcher in the league for 3 seasons was about as high as it gets for a pitcher. Whereas with burnes there is more risk, but considering his stuff probably a small bit more upside.