NFC Championship: Buccaneers @ Packers - Sunday, Jan 24th, 2:05 PM

[homer]

[CheezWizHed]

 

It didn't work out well for him. Hopefully, it works for us better.

[homer]

Packers open as 3.5 point favorites.

[adambr2]

I think we'll both win and cover, but the opening spread sounds about right to me. IMO there's some built in fear from bettors into the opening line because of how bad we looked in Tampa earlier this season. I think smart money goes on GB early and pushes the line to 4.5-5 by kickoff.

[TURBO]

Looking forward to this one!

 

Go Bucs!

[FVBrewerFan]

I recall Brady's first game at Lambeau. Both Favre and Rodgers were injured, Rodgers out for the season. Pats killed us, of course, but I don't remember the score. Bucs at Lambeau also brings flashbacks to the snow bowl in 1985.

[wildcat83]

I think we can run on the TB defense, just stay north and south. We got killed on sweeps and bubble screens in TB. The field should play slower and hopefully limit their speedy LBers. Defense needs to hit Brady early and not let him get comfortable. If we don’t turn it over I think we win and cover.

 

Tampa Bay being the opponent does raise the stakes for how crushing a loss would be. I hate Brady and don’t want to be part of sending him to another Super Bowl.

[pitchleague]

I think we can run on the TB defense, just stay north and south. We got killed on sweeps and bubble screens in TB. The field should play slower and hopefully limit their speedy LBers. Defense needs to hit Brady early and not let him get comfortable. If we don’t turn it over I think we win and cover.

 

Tampa Bay being the opponent does raise the stakes for how crushing a loss would be. I hate Brady and don’t want to be part of sending him to another Super Bowl.

 

 

At his own home field, no less . . . .

[HiAndTight]

I think we can run on the TB defense, just stay north and south. We got killed on sweeps and bubble screens in TB. The field should play slower and hopefully limit their speedy LBers. Defense needs to hit Brady early and not let him get comfortable. If we don’t turn it over I think we win and cover.

 

Tampa Bay being the opponent does raise the stakes for how crushing a loss would be. I hate Brady and don’t want to be part of sending him to another Super Bowl.

 

 

The problem the first time was we started out with those pitches and plays outside. I think if we can start the game running downhill on them, that might open up some other things. But you're almost certainly not going to be able to get anything going on them East-West if you don't gash them North and South.

[HiAndTight]

I think we can run on the TB defense, just stay north and south. We got killed on sweeps and bubble screens in TB. The field should play slower and hopefully limit their speedy LBers. Defense needs to hit Brady early and not let him get comfortable. If we don’t turn it over I think we win and cover.

 

Tampa Bay being the opponent does raise the stakes for how crushing a loss would be. I hate Brady and don’t want to be part of sending him to another Super Bowl.

 

 

At his own home field, no less . . . .

 

 

I'll admit...I don't feel good about this game. Better than I did a year ago, but not as good as I'd feel if this was vs NOLA.

 

Brady's not as good as Rodgers, but the guy is just an incredible winner. This is pretty much the last team I wanted to play. How our tackles hold up is going to be an enormous factor in this game. The Packers were really good on their first two series, Rodgers then threw the back to back picks and we couldn't get it back.

 

I guess the Buccs just went and beat a team they'd lost to 38-3 earlier, so probably not a good idea to put too much emphasis on the regular season game.

[MrTPlush]

I said it at the start of the playoffs and I will stick to it, Brady will beat us in the NFCCG. I think it is a toss-up game, either team could win honestly. However, Brady going to the Super Bowl the first year out of New England just seems meant to be at this point. That’s what I expect, but again, such a toss up game.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I said it at the start of the playoffs and I will stick to it, Brady will beat us in the NFCCG. I think it is a toss-up game, either team could win honestly. However, Brady going to the Super Bowl the first year out of New England just seems meant to be at this point. That’s what I expect, but again, such a toss up game.

 

Gross! That whole idea is simply gross.

 

If this turns into a toss-up game, it's going to be because the packers played like crap and did it, not because the Bucs are that good. Sure, the idea of Lucky Tom's playoff juju scares me, but make no mistake, the Packers have a much better team than the Bucs right now ... despite what happened in their regular season matchup.

 

I think turnovers are going to be key. If Rodgers can avoid stupid interceptions (he probably should have had a couple against the Rams), and the Packers D can force Brady into a couple, the Packers are going to win.

[RobDeer 45]

The more I think about this matchup, the more I hate it. Brady has so much experience in these games and just finds a way to win. I also am still having nightmares of the first matchup and how that went sideways in a hurry. TB has so many weapons on offense, even if we get a lead, I won't feel good. Man I hope we can win this game and get to the Super Bowl!

[MrTPlush]

I’m not sure why people think we are better than the Bucs. We already got slammed by them once, in the last 6 or so weeks their offense is arguably better, and I’d take their defense over ours (though not by a crazy margin). I’m guessing their special teams is better too, like most of the NFL.

 

If we lose hopefully it isn’t the defense failing to show up like it has most of the time in Rodgers playoff losses. Can’t stand watching Rodgers trying to throw for 500 yards and 6 TDS to barely win a big game. Time for the defense to step up and help the cause for once.

[sveumrules]

538 has the win probabilities at (63%) GB (37%) TB, I'd probably have it closer to (55%) GB (45%) TB, but then again I'm just a human being who sometimes has feelings, not a computer.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I’m not sure why people think we are better than the Bucs. We already got slammed by them once, in the last 6 or so weeks their offense is arguably better, and I’d take their defense over ours (though not by a crazy margin). I’m guessing their special teams is better too, like most of the NFL.

 

If we lose hopefully it isn’t the defense failing to show up like it has most of the time in Rodgers playoff losses. Can’t stand watching Rodgers trying to throw for 500 yards and 6 TDS to barely win a big game. Time for the defense to step up and help the cause for once.

 

Agreed on the idea of it being time for the defense to step up. But I disagree on the Bucs offense looking better. Yesterday the Bucs offense pretty much looked like dog crap against the Saints. They were gifted several short fields due to terrible Brees interceptions, but nothing that offense did yesterday scared me. The only way Tampa wins is if this turns into a dogfight and they can get a couple picks off Rodgers.

 

If we are taking the regular season into account, two of the Bucs losses were to a Saints team the Packers beat early in the season. They also lost to the Rams, who the Packers beat soundly last week. But perhaps their worst loss of the season was to a very mediocre Nick Foles-led Bears team. The Bucs are far from infallible.

 

There are several matchups that will be keys in this game. I expect Alexander to match up on Godwin, and he'll basically be invisible. King on Evans is going to be a heck of a matchup. King really needs to step up, as does Sullivan, who is going to be shadowing AB much of the game. Amos and Savage are going to have to continue their strong coverage against Gronk and Brate. Ronald Jones is a decent back, and he's somewhat scary as a matchup. Fournette doesn't scare me a heck of a lot.

 

But the biggest factor is going to be putting pressure on Brady. The Packers need to generate a big pass rush. If they play back in zone and give Brady time, he's going to pick them apart. Pettine need to bring his brass balls to the defensive game plan meetings this week.

[MrTPlush]

I will concur the Bucs offense was not impressive yesterday. They had 4 turnovers and all were incredible field position...yet they scored just 30 points.

 

The defensive backs against their receiving core is a big story and the ability to put pressure on Brady will be a big key to them having success. If we stress Brady out we should have good success on defense and hopefully even force a turnover or two from him. Goff was picking us apart...Brady would be even more miserable on us.

 

And of course...can the Bahk-less offensive line keep impressing?

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the Packers don't lose the turnover margin by more than 1 this game, they are going to the super bowl. Unless they shoot themselves in the foot for an extended period of time, they are the better team playing with the better quarterback, and they are playing at home. The bucs' biggest advantage is their overall defensive speed, and that gets neutralized on a slower track being outdoors in January in green bay.

 

The only way Tampa stays in this game is through a bunch of unforced gb turnovers or gb has a horrid defensive game and it turns into a shootout.

 

Extended forecast doesn't look frigid, but a good chance of accumulating snow during the game....like the titans game.

[homer]

Tampa Bay's pass defense is not very good. They gave up 300 yards passing to a person named Taylor Heinicke in the Wild Card round. Matt Ryan had almost 600 yards passing and 5 TDs in the two games they played. Jared Freakin' Goff had almost 400 yards passing in the game they played. You can throw on them. The key to me is getting pressure on Brady. If he has a clean pocket he'll pick you apart. And if you can't do that at least hold them to field goals. Combine that with no turnovers and it's victory formation for GB.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Tampa Bay's pass defense is not very good. They gave up 300 yards passing to a person named Taylor Heinicke in the Wild Card round. Matt Ryan had almost 600 yards passing and 5 TDs in the two games they played. Jared Freakin' Goff had almost 400 yards passing in the game they played. You can throw on them. The key to me is getting pressure on Brady. If he has a clean pocket he'll pick you apart. And if you can't do that at least hold them to field goals. Combine that with no turnovers and it's victory formation for GB.

 

Even the game earlier this year where the Bucs trounced GB, it started with the Packers going up 10-0 and they had the ball early in quarter #2. GB was in control of that game until turnovers flared up. Up to that point GB had a good mix of run and pass, with Williams getting a few good runs right at the defense. Then came the pick 6 and 2nd pick that set up the Buccaneers inside the 5, and the game plan seemingly changed instantly with no run balance and even the running plays they tried doing were stretch/toss plays that TB's rangy linebackers snuffed out easily. Lazard wasn't in that game, which is actually more significant from a run game perspective. The oline had a very bad day, which seemed to be made worse after GB got 1 dimensional, too.

 

It was the one game this season where it seemed like Rodgers and the offense reverted to what they did in 2018-2019....pass heavy, at times forcing everything to Adams, and seemingly trying to extend stagnant offensive plays to throw people open. I don't see that being the case a second time on Sunday.

[homer]

Yes, the Packers were missing Lazard and King and it was Adams' first game back after the injury. Bucs didn't have Antonio Brown yet though.

[Eye Black]

I’m guessing their special teams is better too, like most of the NFL.

For whatever it’s worth, according to the regular season DVOA ratings the Packers had the 25th ranked special teams and the Buccaneers had the 26th ranked special teams.

[Underachiever]

Tampa Bay's pass defense is not very good. They gave up 300 yards passing to a person named Taylor Heinicke in the Wild Card round. Matt Ryan had almost 600 yards passing and 5 TDs in the two games they played. Jared Freakin' Goff had almost 400 yards passing in the game they played. You can throw on them. The key to me is getting pressure on Brady. If he has a clean pocket he'll pick you apart. And if you can't do that at least hold them to field goals. Combine that with no turnovers and it's victory formation for GB.

Now that's the type of post I need to see. I have been worrying a lot about this matchup. I remember the first Tampa Bay game, and was hyperventilating as I watched TB LBs fly all over the field yesterday. I don't think I realized how bad Brees was yesterday while I was watching. He threw nothing downfield. I only saw two Tampa games this year, the GB game and yesterday. They seem to have one of those "feeding frenzy" defenses where things can snowball quickly.

[HiAndTight]

Tampa Bay's pass defense is not very good. They gave up 300 yards passing to a person named Taylor Heinicke in the Wild Card round. Matt Ryan had almost 600 yards passing and 5 TDs in the two games they played. Jared Freakin' Goff had almost 400 yards passing in the game they played. You can throw on them. The key to me is getting pressure on Brady. If he has a clean pocket he'll pick you apart. And if you can't do that at least hold them to field goals. Combine that with no turnovers and it's victory formation for GB.

 

Even the game earlier this year where the Bucs trounced GB, it started with the Packers going up 10-0 and they had the ball early in quarter #2. GB was in control of that game until turnovers flared up. Up to that point GB had a good mix of run and pass, with Williams getting a few good runs right at the defense. Then came the pick 6 and 2nd pick that set up the Buccaneers inside the 5, and the game plan seemingly changed instantly with no run balance and even the running plays they tried doing were stretch/toss plays that TB's rangy linebackers snuffed out easily. Lazard wasn't in that game, which is actually more significant from a run game perspective. The oline had a very bad day, which seemed to be made worse after GB got 1 dimensional, too.

 

It was the one game this season where it seemed like Rodgers and the offense reverted to what they did in 2018-2019....pass heavy, at times forcing everything to Adams, and seemingly trying to extend stagnant offensive plays to throw people open. I don't see that being the case a second time on Sunday.

 

 

You're right about all that. Adams was banged up, we lost Bahk during that game IIRC, Lazard didn't play, King I don't think played, our defense was just a completely different unit at that time.

 

The direction the Buccs D went toward the end of the year vs the Packers D, I feel like we get an edge there.

Their skill players playing in the cold should slow them down. AB and Gronk should be better, but neither has been lighting it up.

 

I feel like most Non-Packers fans think the Packers are going to win, but as a Packers fan when we actually have something on the line....it's nerve-wracking and you tend to focus on the negatives.

 

They won't be able to line up in man coverage on Davante and send 5 like they did last time and we'll be more prepared this time for their defense also. And Rodgers isn't going to give them 14 points.

 

In that game, we missed on a big play(MVS drop IIRC) on 2nd and 7 up 10-0 and the next play, pick 6. I get you can't quantify momentum, but it absolutely exists. We had it, we were on our way to going up 3 scores and two passes later the Bucks had a 1st and goal in a 10-7 game. Never got it back.

[GAME05]

If we were playing the Jets next week I'd worry about Darnold picking us apart and our ability to run the ball.