Luis Urias Breakout year?

[CheezWizHed]

So the discussion of various utility infielders that we are busy signing got me thinking about what to expect from Luis this year.

 

His numbers at the MLB the last three years are nothing to write home about and not significantly different than previous MLB years:

2020: 239/308/294/602

2019: 223/329/326/655

2018: 208/264/354/618

 

However, he was recovering from a hamate bone break last spring. And while he played, I believe most people expect a full recovery in a year - especially considering bat control is heavily handled by the wrist.

 

I started digging into his MiLB numbers a bit more and he certainly was a different player - higher average and good walk rates. And he was typically 3-4 years younger than the competition.

AAA: 305/403/511/913

AA: 296/398/380/778

A+: 330/397/440/836

He only had ~100 games below A+ ball. His results weren't great, but I think the about 430 more recent games is a better prognosis anyway.

 

Going into this year, I'm going to predict a mini-break out year for Luis: 275/365/390.

 

Thoughts?

Luis

[CheezWizHed]

I'll add that I think Luis is probably capable of hitting 300/400/450, so I don't think I'm even predicting that big of a stretch for him. A 755 OPS 3rd baseman is about average for the MLB and he was good defensively there too.

[sveumrules]

Urias hasn't hit at the MLB level, career OPS+ of 73, but context renders those results of limited utility.

 

We're talking about 422 PAs, spread out over three years, 120 of which came post-hamate injury in a Covid weirdified season, while he was ages 21-23. Like, everybody's pretty excited about Garrett Mitchell right? He'll likely be opening in A ball as a 22 year old.

 

Coming into 2019 Hiura ranked between #6 & #20 by BA/BPro/MLB. Urias came in between #17 & #31 on those same lists. Keston had the edge in the most important area, power, but Luis wasn't far behind in the eyes of most evaluators on account of much being better afield & not having as much swing-n-miss in his profile.

 

Personally, I'm not ready to write off a 24 year old, who has yet to play a full MLB season & posted a 308/397/433 career minor league line with a 12.7% K rate while being around three years younger than his competition at each level.

 

ZiPS projects Urias at 246/333/386 (90 OPS+) for 2021 & I'd like to think Luis can clear that. I'll say something like 270/350/400.

[wibadgers23]

I can get on board with that but we really need to find a way to get him to his more natural position of SS or 2B.

[Eye Black]

I am a believer that we haven’t seen anywhere near Urias’ ceiling yet.

 

Clay Davenport’s Projections have Urias as the 2nd most valuable player on the Brewers in 2021 behind only Christian Yelich. They have him projected for a 4.0 WARP season over 145 games played. A lot of his value is on the strength of his defense, but they are also projecting more power than we saw last season (17 home runs). His projected slash line is .249/.339/.414.

 

I would probably take the under on those power projections, but if he’s able to slug over .400 combined with the rest of his skill set he’ll be a valuable starter for the Brewers next season.

[Eye Black]

However, he was recovering from a hamate bone break last spring. And while he played, I believe most people expect a full recovery in a year - especially considering bat control is heavily handled by the wrist.

One other thing that I think is sometimes forgotten is Urias spent nearly the entire month of July in quarantine with COVID. He had a series of positive tests and was basically confined to his apartment without baseball activities for more than three weeks. He missed Summer Camp and showed up later than others to Camp Appleton. That’s a difficult stretch for a professional baseball player to go without hitting, fielding, throwing, etc. Especially with so little time to then ramp up for the season coming off the mentioned hamate bone injury.

[Lathund]

I'm optimistic about Urias. I liked his defense, and with missing both "preseasons" (especially with the hamate fracture, which tend to sap power) I expect a lot more from him offensively. How much more is hard to say, but I think he will, at a minimum, hit enough for his defense to make him an average starter, or ~2 WAR if given regular playing time. His minor league performances suggest even more, but I'll stick to the lower end of what's reasonable for now.

[wallus]

Much more optimistic about Urias as a 2nd baseman or Shortstop rather than at 3rd.

[CheezWizHed]

Much more optimistic about Urias as a 2nd baseman or Shortstop rather than at 3rd.

 

Because of his defense or because his bat plays better there?

 

I thought his defense (by eye test) was good. I think I saw he had a positive bWAR for 2020, despite a 600 OPS, so I'm guessing his defense made up for his lack of offense.

 

If he hits 750 OPS (as I'm predicting), even OK defense will play at SS. But I'm thinking he becomes much more average on D at SS.

[wallus]

Much more optimistic about Urias as a 2nd baseman or Shortstop rather than at 3rd.

 

Because of his defense or because his bat plays better there?

 

I thought his defense (by eye test) was good. I think I saw he had a positive bWAR for 2020, despite a 600 OPS, so I'm guessing his defense made up for his lack of offense.

 

If he hits 750 OPS (as I'm predicting), even OK defense will play at SS. But I'm thinking he becomes much more average on D at SS.

 

More about the bat than defense. I think he can play SS with all of our shifting where I feel like a strong arm is a little more important than range.

[brewcrewdue80]

So the discussion of various utility infielders that we are busy signing got me thinking about what to expect from Luis this year.

 

His numbers at the MLB the last three years are nothing to write home about and not significantly different than previous MLB years:

2020: 239/308/294/602

2019: 223/329/326/655

2018: 208/264/354/618

 

However, he was recovering from a hamate bone break last spring. And while he played, I believe most people expect a full recovery in a year - especially considering bat control is heavily handled by the wrist.

 

I started digging into his MiLB numbers a bit more and he certainly was a different player - higher average and good walk rates. And he was typically 3-4 years younger than the competition.

AAA: 305/403/511/913

AA: 296/398/380/778

A+: 330/397/440/836

He only had ~100 games below A+ ball. His results weren't great, but I think the about 430 more recent games is a better prognosis anyway.

 

Going into this year, I'm going to predict a mini-break out year for Luis: 275/365/390.

 

Thoughts?

Luis

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/luis-urias-649966

Sitting at .760 OPS after todays DH.

 

Thinking team needs to trade for another 1b/3b since Urias keeps improving as competition arrives

[rickh150]

He’s been great since Adames came…..care free.

[tigerbrew]

Think Urias has solidify himself as the Brewers everyday 3B for this year.

[mlloyd10]

if he can become a 25hr guy, his our 3B for the next couple of years.

[CheezWizHed]

Even w/o being a 25 HR guy, he is currently ranked 10th (by OPS) among qualified 3B (I'm his numbers at SS too). That certainly plugs the hole we've had there. And at 24 years old, he has room to grow yet.

[DR28]

Really didn't see this kind of power coming from him... Think we may have found our 3rd of the future!

 

Tellez - 1B

Wong - 2B (Eventually Turang)

Adames - SS

Urias - 3B

 

Really like the look of that infield for the next 2-5 years!

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Urias is slightly above average with a .329 wOBA and 106 wRC+.

Opening day to Adames trade he was .309 wOBA and 93 wRC+. (712 OPS)

Adames trade to present he has a .352 wOBA and 122 wRC+. (817 OPS)

 

Currently ranked as the 11th best 3rd baseman in these categories of all of MLB. We may have just found something with him.

Fangraphs show a -4.1 UZR defensive rank unfortunately. Hopefully that will improve at 3rd or SS.

[CheezWizHed]

That defensive rating must be impacted by his play at SS. By the eyeball test, he looks pretty strong defensively at 3B.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't know if it's as much finding something unexpected with Urias as it his him settling in as an everyday player at the MLB level and his career minor league numbers translating. Maybe a bit more pop, but then again that comes a little later for guys who aren't linebackers in terms of stature that flew through the minors before they turned 22. Urias was formerly a top 20 prospect in all of MLB for a reason at a very young age, and we are seeing why.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If anything, it's managed to keep the "ZOMG Grisham is a star, Stearnz is soooo dumbbb!!!" contingent a little more quiet lately.

[BallFour]

Fangraphs show a -4.1 UZR defensive rank unfortunately. Hopefully that will improve at 3rd or SS.

 

 

For my own piece of mind looked at it by positional breakdown

 

3B

2020 176 INN 1.6 UZR

2021 239 INN -1.4 UZR

 

SS

2020 38 INN -0.8 UZR

2021 320 INN -4.1 UZR

 

The tools are there to be at least an average MLB 3B and way above average if he cuts down on his throwing errors that have followed him this year from SS to 3B. He was elite defensively in his small sample at 3B during 2020. If he can be that guy with this years offense we are talking about a really good MLB 3B. His defensive value this year is just going to be bogged down by his play at SS.

[Lathund]

I think he'll be fine defensively long term. Even at SS, though I'd still like to see him as primarily a 2B/3B who can cover SS occasionally when needed. The errors seem to be a mental thing, where he can play well overall and then one error, when it does happen, turns into multiple. I know you can't just discount things that happened, but if his multi-error games were 1-error games (i.e they happened in isolation, without one affecting the likelyhood of the next), his defensive ratings would be much improved. That's something that'll often improve with age and experience. Just like at the plate; baseball is a game about failure in some ways. Where a league average player fails (as in makes an out) 2/3 of the time. Fail "only" 60% of the time and you're probably an all-star. Gettting the hang of how to handle that, how to make the bad days slightly less bad, letting the inevitable hitless streaks affect you less, learning how to take the concrete lessons from failures to heart while letting go of everything else about them etc. is how you sustain a long career in this game. And I think that this is perhaps where Luis (As is to be expected for many young players) has been struggling. And I'd imagine that the seemingly infinite energy and positivity from a guy like Adames, and taking some of the pressure off him, has helped.

 

So what I'm getting at is I think he has the skillset both at the plate and defensively to be an average or better player on both sides of the ball. Just need to find the right process that works for him to consistently play at, or at least near, his full ability. I think he will, we've seen signs of that improvement already. And he only recently turned 24. There is reason to be optimistic for sure!

 

Gotta say too that in the light of the many "He can't, and won't ever hit fastballs" comments I saw from Padres fans, it was immensely satisfying to see him pull a 99mph deGrom fastball on the outside part of the plate for a home run.

[brooks_quichenick]

I think he's the 2B of the future, and will end up being one of the best all-around 2B in the National League.

[Jopal78]

To truly breakout, Urias needs a little more consistency. He went 5 for 13 against the Mets with 2 homeruns and a walk, coming off an 0-15 against the Pirates with 8Ks, after going 6 for 14 against the Cubs with 2 doubles and 2 homers. On a larger scale he has been up and down month to month from hot to acceptable to cold.

 

If he can keep his current production going over his next 250 at bats, I think you may be able to say the Grisham/Urias trade was fair for both teams if not a slight win for the Brewers since Lauer has also pitched acceptably this year after his disaster of 2020, and I was critical of the trade initially.