Kyle Schwarber to Nationals

[Eye Black]

The Nationals have signed Kyle Schwarber to a one-year deal according to Nationals beat writer Jesse Dougherty.

 

The signing is for $10 million which is more than he was projected to receive from the Cubs in arbitration.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think he'll thrive in Washington. He's just one in a large group who should get a mulligan for 2020.

[Austin Tatious]

I would have been interested in him for first base but we all knew we weren’t paying that number now. We paid that for Garcia last year but that was then and I doubt we’d do that one again.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would have been interested in him for first base but we all knew we weren’t paying that number now. We paid that for Garcia last year but that was then and I doubt we’d do that one again.

 

Plus Garcia was coming off a MUCH better season, and can play defense.

[MadThinker88]

I would have been interested in him for first base but we all knew we weren’t paying that number now. We paid that for Garcia last year but that was then and I doubt we’d do that one again.

 

Plus Garcia was coming off a MUCH better season, and can play defense.

 

So out of curiosity... What would the Brewers be looking for if they wanted to move Garcia (& reallocate resources)??

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would have been interested in him for first base but we all knew we weren’t paying that number now. We paid that for Garcia last year but that was then and I doubt we’d do that one again.

 

Plus Garcia was coming off a MUCH better season, and can play defense.

 

So out of curiosity... What would the Brewers be looking for if they wanted to move Garcia (& reallocate resources)??

 

No idea what his trade value is now. It depends on how teams are viewing the numbers players put up in the pandemic year. It is obvious that the Nationals didn't care that Schwarber was terrible in 2020. I wonder if Garcia would be treated in a similar light?

[MrTPlush]

Garcia has no trade value. His base salary is $10.75mil and a very likely to be declined $12mil option for 2022 that has a $2mil buyout.

 

Don’t think you could even dump him on a team for a $1 in return.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Garcia has no trade value. His base salary is $10.75mil and a very likely to be declined $12mil option for 2022 that has a $2mil buyout.

 

Don’t think you could even dump him on a team for a $1 in return.

 

I don't know. An actual major league team just paid Kyle Schwarber $10 million, after he was downright terrible in 2020. Garcia is a year older, but their 3-year splits prior to 2020 compare pretty favorably. Garcia is also a premium corner OF defender, while Schwarber might be one of the worst OF defenders in the majors.

 

I think you are reading WAY too much into 2020 numbers, when by all appearances judging by Schwarber's deal, MLB teams are willing to write them off. Either that, or the Nationals just made a terrible personnel move.

[MrTPlush]

Garcia has no trade value. His base salary is $10.75mil and a very likely to be declined $12mil option for 2022 that has a $2mil buyout.

 

Don’t think you could even dump him on a team for a $1 in return.

 

I don't know. An actual major league team just paid Kyle Schwarber $10 million, after he was downright terrible in 2020. Garcia is a year older, but their 3-year splits prior to 2020 compare pretty favorably. Garcia is also a premium corner OF defender, while Schwarber might be one of the worst OF defenders in the majors.

 

I think you are reading WAY too much into 2020 numbers, when by all appearances judging by Schwarber's deal, MLB teams are willing to write them off. Either that, or the Nationals just made a terrible personnel move.

 

3 year splits will compare favorably, but that is because it will grab Garcia’s massive outlier year of 2017. Garcia has never hit for an .800 OPS outside of that year. Take 2-year splits and you have a much different story.

 

I am guessing most teams would project an OPS sub .750 for Garcia and an OPS of .800+ for Schwarber. Offensively, that just aren’t on the same planet for projections.

 

Here is BF.net:

 

Garcia: .736 OPS

Schwarber: .808 OPS

 

Also I am not taking 2020 into consideration at all...Garcia really hasn’t been a good hitter for most of his MLB career. Like many I didn’t like the signing from the get-go.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Garcia has no trade value. His base salary is $10.75mil and a very likely to be declined $12mil option for 2022 that has a $2mil buyout.

 

Don’t think you could even dump him on a team for a $1 in return.

 

I don't know. An actual major league team just paid Kyle Schwarber $10 million, after he was downright terrible in 2020. Garcia is a year older, but their 3-year splits prior to 2020 compare pretty favorably. Garcia is also a premium corner OF defender, while Schwarber might be one of the worst OF defenders in the majors.

 

I think you are reading WAY too much into 2020 numbers, when by all appearances judging by Schwarber's deal, MLB teams are willing to write them off. Either that, or the Nationals just made a terrible personnel move.

 

3 year splits will compare favorably, but that is because it will grab Garcia’s massive outlier year of 2017. Garcia has never hit for an .800 OPS outside of that year. Take 2-year splits and you have a much different story.

 

I am guessing most teams would project an OPS sub .750 for Garcia and an OPS of .800+ for Schwarber. Offensively, that just aren’t on the same planet for projections.

 

Here is BF.net:

 

Garcia: .736 OPS

Schwarber: .808 OPS

 

Also I am not taking 2020 into consideration at all...Garcia really hasn’t been a good hitter for most of his MLB career. Like many I didn’t like the signing from the get-go.

 

So a 3-year split should be tossed, yet a 2-year split is viable? Not sure I can agree on that one. Garcia had a .796 OPS in 2019, so the argument that he only had one year of +.800 is kinda semantics. But if you don't like the guy, you simply don't like the guy, and actual statistics aren't going to change your mind. Plus you aren't even mentioning the fact that Schwarber is a butcher in the OF, and as of now at least the NL doesn't have a DH.

 

I'm not arguing that Garcia is some sort of great player, but I think that .736 projection, while projecting an .808 from Schwarber, makes 0 sense to me. That is expecting that the Garcia we saw in 2020 is who he is, while Schwarber's crappy 2020 is an aberration. I certainly hope for the Brewers sake that isn't the case, and I don't believe it will be. I don't expect Garcia to be a superstar, but I expect a solid corner OF bat.

[adambr2]

Garcia is indeed a good candidate for a rebound season, I agree with that.

 

I also agree his trade value is negative relative to his contract.

[TURBO]

Garcia is indeed a good candidate for a rebound season, I agree with that.

 

I also agree his trade value is negative relative to his contract.

 

This exactly.

 

I think it is fair to be down on the guy due to his lackluster 2020, but I find it hard to believe he is really that guy. Rebound season, possibly, but even so, I don't expect him to be a star for us.

 

I doubt we could find a trade partner unless we were willing to eat up his salary, even then, what we get back probably wouldn't be more than a lottery ticket type guy or 2.

[sveumrules]

The projections will give very little weight to 2017 since it is 4 years out as this point. Schwarber has posted a better OPS+ than Garcia each of the last three seasons (117 vs 95 in 2018, 122 vs 112 in 2019, 88 vs 79 in 2020) so the computers are going to project him to do the same in 2020.

 

Given how small the sample was for 2020, Statcast's expected metrics might actually have better predictive power than the actual season results & Schwarber (.225 xAVG/.444 xSLG) looked better than Garcia (.243 xAVG/.374 xSLG) there too.

 

The other thing Schwarber has going for him is the way he gets his results, walks & power are much more consistent on a year to year basis, where Avisail is a very BABIP reliant hitter, which has larger year to year variation.

[Simba2020]

Garcia has no trade value. His base salary is $10.75mil and a very likely to be declined $12mil option for 2022 that has a $2mil buyout.

 

Don’t think you could even dump him on a team for a $1 in return.

 

I don't know. An actual major league team just paid Kyle Schwarber $10 million, after he was downright terrible in 2020. Garcia is a year older, but their 3-year splits prior to 2020 compare pretty favorably. Garcia is also a premium corner OF defender, while Schwarber might be one of the worst OF defenders in the majors.

 

I think you are reading WAY too much into 2020 numbers, when by all appearances judging by Schwarber's deal, MLB teams are willing to write them off. Either that, or the Nationals just made a terrible personnel move.

At this point in time, you would clearly have to believe that Garcia would have his option declined. That would leave him making $12.5 million this year.

 

If you extrapolate 2020 for a full season, Schwarber would have a 4-year average fWAR of about 2.5 and Garcia right around 2.0. I clearly believe Garcia's number is inflated badly by the 2017 season making that a suspect average. I'd say fWAR of 1.5 would be more accurate if even that. Using Schwarber's contract as a guide, that would put Garcia's value in the $6 to maybe $8 million range. Either way, Garcia would have to be viewed as a major liability and would have absolutely no trade value.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Garcia has no trade value. His base salary is $10.75mil and a very likely to be declined $12mil option for 2022 that has a $2mil buyout.

 

Don’t think you could even dump him on a team for a $1 in return.

 

I don't know. An actual major league team just paid Kyle Schwarber $10 million, after he was downright terrible in 2020. Garcia is a year older, but their 3-year splits prior to 2020 compare pretty favorably. Garcia is also a premium corner OF defender, while Schwarber might be one of the worst OF defenders in the majors.

 

I think you are reading WAY too much into 2020 numbers, when by all appearances judging by Schwarber's deal, MLB teams are willing to write them off. Either that, or the Nationals just made a terrible personnel move.

At this point in time, you would clearly have to believe that Garcia would have his option declined. That would leave him making $12.5 million this year.

 

If you extrapolate 2020 for a full season, Schwarber would have a 4-year average fWAR of about 2.5 and Garcia right around 2.0. I clearly believe Garcia's number is inflated badly by the 2017 season making that a suspect average. I'd say fWAR of 1.5 would be more accurate if even that. Using Schwarber's contract as a guide, that would put Garcia's value in the $6 to maybe $8 million range. Either way, Garcia would have to be viewed as a major liability and would have absolutely no trade value.

 

You have several good points here, and I think you are probably right. That said, I don't think that Schwarber's deal is good at all for the Nationals.

[MrTPlush]

Not sure Garcia’s projection means “he is who he is 2020”. He had a .659 OPS in 2020. That projection is much higher, pretty close to his career OPS. Schwarber is much the same with a projection just under his career number. If anyone is getting docked for 2020 it is Schwarber. He is young and increased his OPS three years in a row before 2020.

 

I think he is average-ish including his defense and I expect him to rebound into that mid .750 OPS range. I wouldn’t complain about that at face value.

 

Of course I don’t think an average OFer with a pretty bad floor (as evidence in 2018/2020 and most of his career) is worth $12mil or so. I think a team would be much more interested in difference making offense, even if the defense is rough. Garcia is just meh.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Not sure Garcia’s projection means “he is who he is 2020”. He had a .659 OPS in 2020. That projection is much higher, pretty close to his career OPS. Schwarber is much the same with a projection just under his career number. If anyone is getting docked for 2020 it is Schwarber. He is young and increased his OPS three years in a row before 2020.

 

I think he is average-ish including his defense and I expect him to rebound into that mid .750 OPS range. I wouldn’t complain about that at face value.

 

Of course I don’t think an average OFer with a pretty bad floor (as evidence in 2018/2020 and most of his career) is worth $12mil or so. I think a team would be much more interested in difference making offense, even if the defense is rough. Garcia is just meh.

 

Garcia is only 21 months older than Schwarber. Schwarber isn't young. I don't know if I'd necessarily consider him a difference-maker, either. I think he's a guy who has been pretty significantly overrated playing in a large market. He's a 3TO guy who is going to hit homers in bunches, strike out a lot, walk a fair share, and hit sub-.250. Also play terrible corner OF defense. That the Cubs couldn't find a trade for him is pretty telling in my opinion.

 

That said, I do agree that Garcia is getting paid to put up at least the numbers he put up in 2019, if not what he did in 2017. If he can't get that .OPS up near or exceeding .800, it's going to be disappointing.

[Eye Black]

Neither ZiPS nor Davenport projections are high on Avisaíl García for 2021. Personally I think Derek Carty’s The Bat X is the best player performance projection system available, but their data isn’t available yet.

 

ZiPS Projections for Garcia (2021)

 

[pre]PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS

525 479 59 129 24 2 16 64 34 121 5 4[/pre]

 

[pre]BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR

.269 .328 .428 98 .159 .330 5.1 0 1.0[/pre]

 

 

Davenport Projections for Garcia (2021)

 

[pre]AB H DB TP HR R RBI BB SO SB CS

472 120 20 1 17 59 67 36 116 4 3[/pre]

 

[pre]BA OBA SLG EQA EQR WARP

.254 .313 .408 .251 56 -0.2[/pre]

[3and2Fastball]

Garcia’s offensive numbers in 2020 were down in part because of a smaller sample size/randomness and in part because he played every day CF which was tougher on his legs. He played 44 games in Center. The last time that happened was in 2012 playing in AA Ball for Erie. (He was 21 years old in 2012). Agree he could bounce back well.

 

Schwarber is, to me, relatively overrated but it’s not a bad signing by the Nationals.

[JosephC]

because he played every day CF which was tougher on his legs.

 

Speaking of playing centerfield, Victor Robles better get himself a whole bunch of new running shoes because he's gonna need 'em. Soto and Schwarber in the same outfield. Have to think the Nationals are 100% convinced there will be a NL DH in 2021. Or else they think their pitchers are going to strike out >35% of the batters that they will face.

[nate82]

because he played every day CF which was tougher on his legs.

 

Speaking of playing centerfield, Victor Robles better get himself a whole bunch of new running shoes because he's gonna need 'em. Soto and Schwarber in the same outfield. Have to think the Nationals are 100% convinced there will be a NL DH in 2021. Or else they think their pitchers are going to strike out >35% of the batters that they will face.

 

The Nationals are going to be playing Schwarber at 1B and not in the OF so not sure why this would be an issue.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

because he played every day CF which was tougher on his legs.

 

Speaking of playing centerfield, Victor Robles better get himself a whole bunch of new running shoes because he's gonna need 'em. Soto and Schwarber in the same outfield. Have to think the Nationals are 100% convinced there will be a NL DH in 2021. Or else they think their pitchers are going to strike out >35% of the batters that they will face.

 

The Nationals are going to be playing Schwarber at 1B and not in the OF so not sure why this would be an issue.

 

Uhh, if Schwarber is playing 1B, where is Josh Bell gonna play? No DH in the NL yet.

[sveumrules]

With this signing, we are now up to nine teams (Mets, Padres, Royals, Dodgers, Braves, Tigers, Blue Jays, Giants & Nationals) that have signed a free agent to a contract with at least a five million AAV.

[nate82]

Bell has played the OF before and probably rates out better than Schwarber does in the OF.

[JosephC]

because he played every day CF which was tougher on his legs.

 

Speaking of playing centerfield, Victor Robles better get himself a whole bunch of new running shoes because he's gonna need 'em. Soto and Schwarber in the same outfield. Have to think the Nationals are 100% convinced there will be a NL DH in 2021. Or else they think their pitchers are going to strike out >35% of the batters that they will face.

 

The Nationals are going to be playing Schwarber at 1B and not in the OF so not sure why this would be an issue.

 

LOL, if you believe defensive metrics that's even worse. Bell played a total of 108 1/3 innings for the Pirates in right field in 2016 and had a -5 DRS (which is just awful for only 108 innings) and a -43.7 UZR/150. The eyeball test probably matched the numbers considering the Pirates never put him in the outfield again.