Wilson Contreras

[pacopete4]

He's being shopped by the Cubs. Could add a middle-of-the-order bat and I'm guessing not have to give up much in return as it looks like they want salary dump. Either way, partner him with Narvaez and you should have plenty of production from that position. He does have a little bit of experience in LF and 1B as well to make him a bit more well-rounded of an option.

[nate82]

He's being shopped by the Cubs. Could add a middle-of-the-order bat and I'm guessing not have to give up much in return as it looks like they want salary dump. Either way, partner him with Narvaez and you should have plenty of production from that position. He does have a little bit of experience in LF and 1B as well to make him a bit more well-rounded of an option.

 

Not sure how you can say Wilson Contreras and salary dump in the same sentence but here we are. He will only be making ~$6m in 2021 which is a rather small amount for his talent level. Not including his 2020 season he has been about a 3 WAR player lets say he regresses a bit and is only a 2 WAR player in no way is Contreras a salary dump. Contreras and Rizzo are the top two for the Cubs in value.

 

A trade for Contreras on the Brewers side would look something like this.

 

Cubs receive:

SS Turang

LHP Kelly

LHP Ashby

 

Brewers receive:

Contreras

 

I wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Yankees or the Red Sox stepped in and offered something better to the Cubs. Contreras will not be a salary dump that is just not going to happen.

[adambr2]

Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.

[wntrtxn21]

Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.

 

I think you're right that the return price for Contreras would be high. I really would hate to see them lose two of their best prospects for a catcher.

[MadThinker88]

I have to believe the ChiCubs would be looking for a catcher back in the trade package since they just dealt a catcher with Darvish to SDP

[TURBO]

Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.

 

Man, it would suck to see Feliciano and Turang as Cubs in the future...

 

That would really suck.

[adambr2]

Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.

 

Man, it would suck to see Feliciano and Turang as Cubs in the future...

 

That would really suck.

 

Of course. But it would suck a lot less if Contreras helped fix the offense and we won the division the next couple years and made deep playoff runs. He's a really good player and the offense as constructed last year wasn't nearly good enough. Got to give something to get something.

[markedman5]

Aren’t inter-division off-season trades pretty rare?

 

I just don’t remember many trades involving major league pieces between the Brewers and the Cubs/Cards/Reds/Pirates ........trading deadline deals when one team is out of it sure......but just don’t think it is at all likely that Cubs will trade him within the division.......unless of course we overpaid.

 

As always I could be wrong......but I will be surprised if he ends up in the NL central if they move him.

[adambr2]

Aren’t inter-division off-season trades pretty rare?

 

I just don’t remember many trades involving major league pieces between the Brewers and the Cubs/Cards/Reds/Pirates ........trading deadline deals when one team is out of it sure......but just don’t think it is at all likely that Cubs will trade him within the division.......unless of course we overpaid.

 

As always I could be wrong......but I will be surprised if he ends up in the NL central if they move him.

 

I too doubt that he goes to the Brewers or any NL Central team, but I've always thought the whole "don't trade him to a division rival" thing is dumb. Just take the best offer you can get. If the Cubs are rebuilding anyway, what do they care what Contreras does for us the next 2 years?

[Jopal78]

It may not be a “salary dump” with Contreras. His value will never be higher as each game he plays takes him closer to free agency. I’m also sure the Cubs have don their due diligence and approached their core players about extensions and the ones who intend to go year to year and/or test free agency will likely be traded.

[DR28]

Hoyer says the shopping of Contreras is fictional.

[TURBO]

I don't want to give any of our top prospects to the Cubs.

 

Having them rub it in with our guys for a decade if they pan out just sickens me.

[pacopete4]

Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.

[adambr2]

Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.

 

Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can.

 

I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something.

 

I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years.

[PeaveyFury]

Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.

 

Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can.

 

I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something.

 

I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years.

 

I agree with this 100%. You can't automatically assume that a guy like Turang is future perennial all-star. You weigh that possibility and your own talent evaluation and decide whether that's worth giving up for the player you get in return. Stearns and co. have rarely if ever given up a guy that really haunts us in the way you fear.

[adambr2]

Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.

 

Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can.

 

I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something.

 

I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years.

 

I agree with this 100%. You can't automatically assume that a guy like Turang is future perennial all-star. You weigh that possibility and your own talent evaluation and decide whether that's worth giving up for the player you get in return. Stearns and co. have rarely if ever given up a guy that really haunts us in the way you fear.

 

I think the difficulty of a prospect even having a productive MLB career, much less becoming a star, is often underestimated. Look no further than Brinson/Diaz/Harrison/Yamamoto. Truthfully, it was probably even on the low probability side that all would make it to the big leagues, which they all did. But it goes to show how much difference there is between a scouting report and what actually happens.

 

"Future 30/30 player" sounds impressive in a prospect evaluation, but there's a big difference between that and having it actually happen.

 

We've finally struck gold with a few pitchers in recent years, but it took years of churning out Eric Arnetts, Jed Bradleys, Taylor Jungmanns, and many others.

 

Of course, there's always a chance you gave up the next Burnes or Woodruff. So you weigh that carefully in your risk/reward analysis and as you say, Stearns has done well in not giving up anyone who proved later to be a pivotal loss.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.

 

Man, it would suck to see Feliciano and Turang as Cubs in the future...

 

That would really suck.

 

Of course. But it would suck a lot less if Contreras helped fix the offense and we won the division the next couple years and made deep playoff runs. He's a really good player and the offense as constructed last year wasn't nearly good enough. Got to give something to get something.

 

And the Brewers have other legit catcher prospects than Feliciano too

[adambr2]

For some retrospective, here is a top 20 Brewer prospect list from 2015.

 

1) Orlando Arcia

2) Tyrone Taylor

3) Monte Harrison

4) Clint Coulter

5) Taylor Jungmann

6) Devin Williams

7) Taylor Williams

8) Tyler Wagner

9) Kodi Medeiros

10) Jorge Lopez

11) Wei Chung Wang

12) David Goforth

13) Victor Roache

14) Gilbert Lara

15) Jason Rogers

16) Kyle Wren

17) Miguel Diaz

18) Jacob Gatewood

19) Tyler Cravy

20) Jed Bradley

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/2/7482797/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2015

 

Of this entire list, only Orlando Arcia has turned out to be an everyday starter, and not a good one. There is one single name from this list -- Devin Williams, that would suck to see on another roster. One. Other than that, it's a whose who of flameouts, bench players, and one year filler back end bullpen arms.

 

And even Williams didn't emerge until this season.

 

These guys are way, way more miss than hit.

[Lathund]

I wouldn't be interested in any of the swaps proposed on here. It's also not just about the prospects vs Contreras, you also need to take the opportunity cost of the ~$6m (And probably $8-9m at least in 2022) Contreras is due. So is two years of Contreras going to be worth more to the Brewers than the potential 12 years of Turang + Feliciano? Reasonable people can disagree, and we're all just making more or less informed guesses, but a strong case can be made for the trade just looking at it that way. However, the $6m + $8m needs to factor in too. So assuming that money is there (There would be no trade either if it wasn't), I think Brewers get more out of spending that on 1B and 3B while holding on to their prospects. Even with Narvaez' struggles with the bat, Brewers put up above average production at C, and are likely to do so again. Whereas right now, Urias and Vogelbach are the corner IF starters, backed up by, I guess, Lucas Erceg, Mark Mathias, Dustin Peterson and Zach Green. Now if we could expect the Brewers to have $15m or more to spend, then I might have a different opinion as you could strengthen both areas. But with what seems like tight pursestrings, I think it'd be a mistake to use what little money there is on Contreras. And this is from the perspective of not being very high on Turang and Feliciano. If one was to think it more likely than not that they're average starters or better, the idea would fall even sooner.

 

I've also realised that I generally find myself not liking many trades for players with 2 years of control remaining. Seems to me like the asking price is rarely all that much less than for 3+ years, and you not only get fewer games from the player, but also pay more on average. I much prefere more longer term trades even if it costs, or opportunistic rentals. The inbetween doesn't seem all that great most of the time.

[adambr2]

I wouldn't be interested in any of the swaps proposed on here. It's also not just about the prospects vs Contreras, you also need to take the opportunity cost of the ~$6m (And probably $8-9m at least in 2022) Contreras is due. So is two years of Contreras going to be worth more to the Brewers than the potential 12 years of Turang + Feliciano? Reasonable people can disagree, and we're all just making more or less informed guesses, but a strong case can be made for the trade just looking at it that way. However, the $6m + $8m needs to factor in too. So assuming that money is there (There would be no trade either if it wasn't), I think Brewers get more out of spending that on 1B and 3B while holding on to their prospects. Even with Narvaez' struggles with the bat, Brewers put up above average production at C, and are likely to do so again. Whereas right now, Urias and Vogelbach are the corner IF starters, backed up by, I guess, Lucas Erceg, Mark Mathias, Dustin Peterson and Zach Green. Now if we could expect the Brewers to have $15m or more to spend, then I might have a different opinion as you could strengthen both areas. But with what seems like tight pursestrings, I think it'd be a mistake to use what little money there is on Contreras. And this is from the perspective of not being very high on Turang and Feliciano. If one was to think it more likely than not that they're average starters or better, the idea would fall even sooner.

 

I've also realised that I generally find myself not liking many trades for players with 2 years of control remaining. Seems to me like the asking price is rarely all that much less than for 3+ years, and you not only get fewer games from the player, but also pay more on average. I much prefere more longer term trades even if it costs, or opportunistic rentals. The inbetween doesn't seem all that great most of the time.

 

As you say, reasonable people can disagree but Contreras seems like a lot more of a sure thing for the cost than anything we'll get in free agency for the price. You quoted $14-15M for 2 years of Contreras which is probably right .

 

We spent I believe roughly that amount trying to shore up 1B and 3B just last season between Smoak, Sogard, Morrison, Holt and Gyorko and generally ended up with just a lot of dead weight on the roster. I'll take the 2 years of the almost certain productive player for that price over the handful of journeymen.

[Lathund]

If you're going to assume we'll just throw that money away and get nothing for it, then yeah make the trade. I just don't think that's a fair assumption to make. But if you don't believe in free agents, then let's trade the same prospects for the best available 3B instead. Because catcher is still the wrong spot to spend resources on, as Brewers are already league-average or better there. Spend what's likely to be the majority of the money and prospect capital we're likely to spend this offseason on Contreras, and we'll have noone on the corners. When looking at a trade you also need to look at what we already have at the positions in question, and how it further impacts the squad. Contreras simply replaces a catcher on the roster (Probably Piña). That's an improvement, but a lot less than you probably think due to how much better of a defender Manny is. And it does nothing for any other position on the field (Contreras has a combined 36 innings between 1B, 3B and LF/RF over the past three years). Adding a 3B is adding to a position where Brewers currently have Urias starting and noone with any major league experience (Or a highly ranked prospect either) backing him up. In addition to whatever effect that strictly has on 3B, it also means Urias can play more SS and 2B (which also pushes whoever would've been the middle IF backup down a notch) and that in turn means Hiura can DH (Or play 1B, tho I don't think they go that route) some more. Adding a 1B means Vogelbach can mostly DH instead, improving the production from both DH and 1B (I'm fairly certain there will be a DH in 2021. If nothing else, it would allow a platoon and a better bench). Contreras might be a 3 WAR catcher in a vacuum (He has never reached that by either fWAR or WARP, but let's be generous), but he would add less to the team than a 2 WAR third baseman would. With the knock-on effects, I think even a 1 WAR third baseman might add similar value.

 

In a vacuum trading for Contreras is fine. In a situation where there would be money left to spend after making the trade, it's fine. When there is no other money to spend and it's trading two of the top 5 prospects in an already weak farm for a player who plays in a position that's not even in the top 5 positional needs the team has, it's not fine.

[walleye]

No way I want anything to do with Contreras unless he plays everyday at 1b or left field, I do not want to invest my limited funds on a C that one needs a day off more often then a regular position player two still leaves us with the same weaknesses to address and 3 will more then likely cost us more to trade within the central ( maybe with the cubs selling that might not happen but odds are not in our favor) I like Contreras but in this year where we will have to more the likely have to do more with less in regards to payroll we must choice our opinions wisely and I this may OT be it.

[adambr2]

No way I want anything to do with Contreras unless he plays everyday at 1b or left field, I do not want to invest my limited funds on a C that one needs a day off more often then a regular position player two still leaves us with the same weaknesses to address and 3 will more then likely cost us more to trade within the central ( maybe with the cubs selling that might not happen but odds are not in our favor) I like Contreras but in this year where we will have to more the likely have to do more with less in regards to payroll we must choice our opinions wisely and I this may OT be it.

 

If you acquire Contreras no way do you do it for him to be your 1B. He's got a very high end bat for a catcher and a dime a dozen bat for a 1B. Not saying you never play him anywhere else but if you're trading for Contreras it's definitely for him to be your primary catcher.

[brewcrewdue80]

Team has plenty of catchers.

Catchers stink.

Don't waste prospect capitol on catchers.

 

Why is this so hard to understand?

 

Buster Posey's WAR peaked at 28. Downhill from there. Contreras will be 29 next season. And his downhill began in 2020.

What is it with trying to corner the market on catchers? They dont ever play 150+games in a season. The highs to lows are rapid. Wear and tear. Its the same thing with drafts. Kyle Schwarber was a premium bat catcher that never was.

 

Why give up future pieces at a position team has aplenty of? We still need 1b, SS, 3B improvements over a 2? year rental. And yes I did say SS because Arcia's bat is questionable and Urias' bat thus far is too. Not to mention defense not up to snuff. It's not like the minors is overflowing with top 50-100 prospects to possibly use at a deadline trade. Using however many top 12 propects to entice the Cubs to trade to us ruins that future usage. And last, it's the Cubs. Don't help them.

[TURBO]

Cubs president Jed Hoyer said Wednesday that the rumors about Willson Contreras being shopped are "fictional."

 

This could be a game of semantics, as the Cubs have undoubtedly received calls about Contreras -- especially in the wake of the Yu Darvish/Victor Caratini trade -- and would almost certainly move the star catcher this winter given a sizable enough return. Hoyer also told reporters during Wednesday's press conference that he thinks "we're going to have a really competitive team next year," so take it all with a grain of salt.

 

SOURCE: Jordan Bastian on Twitter

Dec 30, 2020, 11:27 AM ET