Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects

[monty57]

The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.

 

With the way the Central looks, and the number of unsigned free agents sitting out there, I wonder how tempted Attanasio is to make some moves like they did with Moose and Grandal. I'd guess a lot of players will be willing to sign one-year deals to get them through this offseason and onto next year with a new CBA and (hopefully) no Covid concerns.

[patrickgpe]

it would make sense for the players, after the new CBA, there should be more potential to sign a larger deal to sign a 1 year deal. It is a risk, since you are betting on something that is unclear rather than taking the guaranteed money up front. Once fans are in the stands again I think owners will be more apt to spend anyway.

[Austin Tatious]

It's probably just my own selection bias, but does it ever end with player "values" wildly oscillating based solely on whether they happen to be Brewers players or players of a chosen genius franchise like the Cubs?

 

Luis Urias is considered an elite prospect... until he's traded to the Brewers and then he is chopped liver.

 

Zach Davies is a middling piece from a Brewers starting rotation that is supposed to be a laughing stock... and now that he is on the Cubs sites are declaring that he will "look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021." Because of <70 IP with a 3.88 FIP in 2020, or because he's no longer a Brewer?

 

The Rodney Dangerfield of MLB franchises - no respect!

 

 

Yes, and I believe it’s even more acute when it comes to prospects. We have had Peter Gammons in Boston; Jayson Stark in Philly; Olney, Joel Sherman and a slew of others in New York etc. They tend to get very myopic with the prospects in their markets and then have a national stage to tout the prospects. As a result, prospects from those organizations get a lift.

[RobertR]

The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.

 

The Brewers might just be the favorites in the division by not holding a fire sale.

 

Remember not too long ago when there was a worry that the Brewers just couldn't compete with the imminent Cubs and Cardinals dynasties?

[Lathund]

Brewers have a very good chance to win the NL Central this upcoming season. A lot hinges on what they do with the corner infield spots of course (And whatever moves, whether addition or subtraction, happens around the division), but honestly even with the rosters they are right now, I'd give the Brewers a good chance. Brewers pitching last year was very good; only 11th going by ERA-, but tied for 2nd in FIP- and T-1st for xFIP-. Combine that with the joint highest groundball % and the lowest exit velocity allowed (And Statcasts xwOBA says the same thing), and you'd expect good things going forward. Some better defense would help too. I think that pitching gives the team a very good foundation to build off, so with how mediocre the division looks in general, it should be possible to find enough offensive upgrades even on a budget to challenge.

 

The Cards should still be pretty good (They almost always are), but the Cubs have an enormous amount of work to do on their pitching. Beyond Hendricks and Davies they have almost no quality or depth in their rotation. Their starting lineup still looks decent, but we should expect some more subtraction and even right now they have no depth. The Reds' offense sucks, and while I expect their pitching to stil be good, losing Bauer and Iglesias (And possibly even Gray if rumours are to be believed) is going to hurt.

[TURBO]

Brewers as of today in 2021

 

C Narvaez = Wash...Hoping he can be better than last year with the bat, which is why I graded him a wash. If he struggles, he is a big Negative.

1B Vogelbach = Negative (I can't believe this is what we roll with...)

2B Hiura = ? (wonder what we get from this guy...he will never have value defensively, so he better bring his offense up a couple notches from last year)

SS Arcia= Negative (I don't believe that 2020 is the real Arcia, nor should anyone else, we've seen this cat before and it always fades)

3B Urias (?) = Negative

RF Garcia = Negative (big let down last year with no signs of the guy we thought we were getting, which was probably average at best)

CF Cain = Wash, great defense, who knows what we will see offensively.

LF Yelich = Positive (I refuse to believe we see 2020 Yelich, might not see 2018-19 Yelich, but it will surely be better than 2020)

 

That offense, as it sits, has no chance of winning the divsion... It just doesn't. In fact, it's depressing to see it in woirds. Seriously, look at that offense, disturbing.

 

Pitching alone doesn't win championships, we have to be able to score runs consistantly, and that offense will not get it done.

 

I truly hope we get ourselves a real bonified 1B and 3B. If not, it will be a long season in 2021.

[Lathund]

I don't even know what the Wash/Negative/Positive is in relation to? Comparing the positions to 2020? Compared to replacement level? Compared to league average? Compard to the rest of the NLC?

 

That offense has career wRC+ of 108, 103, 117, 71, 75, 102, 106 and 135. Equally weighted, that's an average of 102. That's more than last years NLC division winner had. Now of course career average isn't the same as what they'll do next year. I think it's reasonable to expect some to do better than that (Urias is my main bet) and some to do worse (Cain being the obvious one). But even so, take a projection system like ZiPS and it projects the offense (OPS+ instead of wRC+, but they're usually extremely close) as: 94, 112, 102, 80, 90, 98, 92, 135. For an average of 100. Still better than last years NLC winner.

 

Of course this takes into account neither the bench players or any eventual signings, and it's an overly simplified analysis. But you're simply reading way too much into the very small and, due to the circumstances, very weird sample of 2020 baseball, and taking the most negative outcome from it. I certainly don't disagree with needing big improvements at 1B and 3B, but the team is in a far better position relative to the division than most fans seem to realise. That's a sad indictment of the division at the moment more than this team being good, but as far as dvision standings go only the relative, not absolute, quality of the teams matter.

[StearnsFTW]

Brewers as of today in 2021

 

C Narvaez = Wash...Hoping he can be better than last year with the bat, which is why I graded him a wash. If he struggles, he is a big Negative.

1B Vogelbach = Negative (I can't believe this is what we roll with...)

2B Hiura = ? (wonder what we get from this guy...he will never have value defensively, so he better bring his offense up a couple notches from last year)

SS Arcia= Negative (I don't believe that 2020 is the real Arcia, nor should anyone else, we've seen this cat before and it always fades)

3B Urias (?) = Negative

RF Garcia = Negative (big let down last year with no signs of the guy we thought we were getting, which was probably average at best)

CF Cain = Wash, great defense, who knows what we will see offensively.

LF Yelich = Positive (I refuse to believe we see 2020 Yelich, might not see 2018-19 Yelich, but it will surely be better than 2020)

 

That offense, as it sits, has no chance of winning the divsion... It just doesn't. In fact, it's depressing to see it in woirds. Seriously, look at that offense, disturbing.

 

Pitching alone doesn't win championships, we have to be able to score runs consistantly, and that offense will not get it done.

 

I truly hope we get ourselves a real bonified 1B and 3B. If not, it will be a long season in 2021.

 

I don't think it's nearly as bad as you do, but I agree on 3b & 1b being problems (I consider Urias our everyday SS).

 

Garcia, Urias, Narvaez and obviously Yelich are the guys I'm looking at to step up in addition to (hopefully) getting competent 1b and 3b.

[TURBO]

Garcia was such a non-factor last season. Just a blah player in the daily line-up.

 

He has to be better than 2020, right?

 

I sure hope so, but I have no confidence in the guy.

[stoutdude04]

Garcia was such a non-factor last season. Just a blah player in the daily line-up.

 

He has to be better than 2020, right?

 

I sure hope so, but I have no confidence in the guy.

 

I think this is part of it. Last year so many guys left a sour taste in my mouth that I am down on almost everyone. I keep telling myself...no way they can be as bad as last year. Hopefully that becomes true.

[sveumrules]

Omar | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 106 | 2020 actual OPS+: 53 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 94

Urias | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 95 | 2020 actual OPS+: 64 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 90

Avisail | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 107 | 2020 actual OPS+: 79 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 98

Hiura | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 115 | 2020 actual OPS+: 88 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 102

Yelich | 2020 ZiPS OPS+: 149 | 2020 actual OPS+: 111 | 2021 ZiPS OPS+: 135

 

Is it possible that all five of these guys underperform their projections by 25-50% again in 2021? Sure, it's possible. It's also highly unlikely.

 

Who knows how the rest of the offseason shakes out, but right now my NLC tiers would be Brewers/Cardinals (small gap) Cubs/Reds (large gap) Pirates.

[Brewers Numbers]

There is an article in the Athletic, Why missing in-game video meant a poor season for Christian Yelich (and others), about how the Covid-19 protocol about not allowing access to the video room in-game led to batters not being able to adjust. Especially batters like Yelich and Hiura with a leg kick.

[monty57]

I don't think it's nearly as bad as you do, but I agree on 3b & 1b being problems (I consider Urias our everyday SS).

 

Garcia, Urias, Narvaez and obviously Yelich are the guys I'm looking at to step up in addition to (hopefully) getting competent 1b and 3b.

 

I don't really want to see Urias as our everyday third baseman, so I hope they make a move to find a solid third baseman. That would allow for Stearns to trade one of Arcia, Hiura or Urias. Arcia is the "easy" option of the three, but he'd also have the least return. I'm warming to the idea of trading Hiura for a "monster" return and going with the solid defense of Arcia at SS and Urias at 2B (his natural position). I think Vogelbach's bat should be average or above for a MLB 1b, and his bad defense at 1B would be a little less troublesome if we had good defenders at the other three infield positions, or possibly a good first baseman could be part of the return for Hiura.

 

Like you mentioned, our biggest offensive "upgrade" is going to have to be simple... the good hitters on the team have to hit. If Yelich, Garcia, Narvaez, etc hit like they did in 2020, our offense will not be good regardless of other moves we make.

[DR28]

I don't think it's nearly as bad as you do, but I agree on 3b & 1b being problems (I consider Urias our everyday SS).

 

Garcia, Urias, Narvaez and obviously Yelich are the guys I'm looking at to step up in addition to (hopefully) getting competent 1b and 3b.

 

I don't really want to see Urias as our everyday third baseman, so I hope they make a move to find a solid third baseman. That would allow for Stearns to trade one of Arcia, Hiura or Urias. Arcia is the "easy" option of the three, but he'd also have the least return. I'm warming to the idea of trading Hiura for a "monster" return and going with the solid defense of Arcia at SS and Urias at 2B (his natural position). I think Vogelbach's bat should be average or above for a MLB 1b, and his bad defense at 1B would be a little less troublesome if we had good defenders at the other three infield positions, or possibly a good first baseman could be part of the return for Hiura.

 

Like you mentioned, our biggest offensive "upgrade" is going to have to be simple... the good hitters on the team have to hit. If Yelich, Garcia, Narvaez, etc hit like they did in 2020, our offense will not be good regardless of other moves we make.

 

We need to build this offense around Yelich and Hiura... If we trade Hiura, teams will have no reason to pitch to Yeli then.

[monty57]

We need to build this offense around Yelich and Hiura... If we trade Hiura, teams will have no reason to pitch to Yeli then.

 

That's certainly one way to go, and I wouldn't be upset at all if we continue down that route. But, there are lots of other options, like signing La Stella to play 3B and trading Hiura for a young first baseman who can hit. In that scenario, we maximize Urias by moving him to his natural position, and we greatly upgrade our infield defense, while upgrading our offense at the corners to offset the likely offensive downgrade at 2B.

 

I like Hiura, but he has to hit to his potential to offset his horrendous defense. A right-side-of-the-infield made up of Hiura and Vogelbach may be decent offensively, but defensively it sends shivers down my spine.

 

But as I mentioned in my previous post, my primary focus would be to find a third baseman. What we'd then do with the logjam of Urias, Arcia, and Hiura in the middle infield would be the secondary concern. Hiura simply would bring the most back, and while I was completely opposed to the thought of trading him, I'm warming to that idea if it brings back a huge return and if we address the corner IF positions. I'm not sold on it, and it would have to make both short-term and long-term sense for the team.

[TURBO]

Not that it is likely any longer, but I'd rather trade Hader for corner IF guys than Hiura. Trading hitting for hitting doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[JosephC]

Hiura has to be a hold. Trading him now seems to be a pretty dramatic situation of selling low. Has to go back in the starting lineup and try to improve on last year's .212/.297/.410/.707 which seems like a really safe and easy bet.

[SomewhereInTime]

Protection is a myth.