Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini to Padres, Cubs receive Zach Davies and prospects

[sveumrules]

As much as I’d love to dunk on the Cubs for this trade, every fan base in the NL Central may be living in a proverbial “glass house” whether they know it or not yet.

 

Something else to consider is that since 2016 (Davies first full season/Darvish's first season back from TJ), Zach has posted an 88 ERA- compared to an 82 ERA- for Yu, so the difference in production for 2021 likely won't be as big as their names might lead one to believe.

 

The things that make me feel somewhat re-assured about the Brewers relative to their NLC counterparts is (A) they have the lost the least production from 2020 comparatively & (2) Hader is the only big 2021 contributor who is really a trade possibility, & if he does get dealt it will be from an area of depth with a likely eye towards acquiring players who can help at positions with more pressing need.

[Eye Black]

Head over to NSBB if you want to read some quality meltdowns.

Oh wow, some of their posters thought they were going to get both Campusano and Cronenworth... plus even more. Others were disappointed with that idea and wanted Gore or Abrams included.

 

That would certainly be quite the let down.

[sveumrules]

That doesn't help. But Hader is going to be rather expensive (as relievers go) himself the next 3 years, and obviously isn't as valuable as an ace.

 

Is Yu really an ace though?

 

Sure, he pitched like one (221 ERA+) for 76 IP in 2020, but in 2019 he only posted a 110 ERA+ in 178 IP, finishing 43rd by FIP based WAR & 31st by runs allowed based WAR out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 IP. In 2018 he was hurt & only threw 40 IP with an 85 ERA+.

 

Add it all up & ZiPS projects him for 150 IP with a 120 ERA+ (3.2 WAR) in 2021, which is more of a solid #2.

 

The only time in his career he really pitched like an ace for a full season was back in 2013 when he posted 209 IP with a 145 ERA+, finishing 12th by FIP based WAR & 2nd by runs allowed based WAR.

[Bulldogboy]

Brewers wouldn't have to do much at all this offseason to be the favorites in division. Make a move or two why not??

[Eye Black]

This Michael Cermani tweet was from earlier today...

 

If Cubs do end up w/ Zach Davies, they'd have 3 of the bottom-10 pitchers in fastball velocity for 2020. And if they re-sign Jon Lester, it'd be four of the top-10.

 

Hendricks: 87.4 MPH (3rd lowest)

Davies: 88.6 MPH (5th)

Lester: 89.2 MPH (6th)

Mills: 90.0 MPH (9th)

[trwi7]

That doesn't help. But Hader is going to be rather expensive (as relievers go) himself the next 3 years, and obviously isn't as valuable as an ace.

 

Is Yu really an ace though?

 

Sure, he pitched like one (221 ERA+) for 76 IP in 2020, but in 2019 he only posted a 110 ERA+ in 178 IP, finishing 43rd by FIP based WAR & 31st by runs allowed based WAR out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 IP. In 2018 he was hurt & only threw 40 IP with an 85 ERA+.

 

Add it all up & ZiPS projects him for 150 IP with a 120 ERA+ (3.2 WAR) in 2021, which is more of a solid #2.

 

The only time in his career he really pitched like an ace for a full season was back in 2013 when he posted 209 IP with a 145 ERA+, finishing 12th by FIP based WAR & 2nd by runs allowed based WAR.

 

He was pretty great in the 2nd half of 2019 the further he got away from his injury riddled 2018. After the all-star break he averaged over 6 innings per start, 81.2 innings, 2.76 ERA with 118 strikeouts and only 7 walks. Add that to this year and his last 25 starts he's posted a 2.40 ERA with 211 strikeouts and 21 walks in 157.2 innings. This board would be flipping their you know what if we got him

[sveumrules]

Is Yu really an ace though?

 

Sure, he pitched like one (221 ERA+) for 76 IP in 2020, but in 2019 he only posted a 110 ERA+ in 178 IP, finishing 43rd by FIP based WAR & 31st by runs allowed based WAR out of 75 pitchers with at least 150 IP. In 2018 he was hurt & only threw 40 IP with an 85 ERA+.

 

Add it all up & ZiPS projects him for 150 IP with a 120 ERA+ (3.2 WAR) in 2021, which is more of a solid #2.

 

The only time in his career he really pitched like an ace for a full season was back in 2013 when he posted 209 IP with a 145 ERA+, finishing 12th by FIP based WAR & 2nd by runs allowed based WAR.

 

He was pretty great in the 2nd half of 2019 the further he got away from his injury riddled 2018. After the all-star break he averaged over 6 innings per start, 81.2 innings, 2.76 ERA with 118 strikeouts and only 7 walks. Add that to this year and his last 25 starts he's posted a 2.40 ERA with 211 strikeouts and 21 walks in 157.2 innings. This board would be flipping their you know what if we got him

 

No doubt, I'd be excited. That wouldn't guarantee that Yu stays healthy & earns his 59 million though.

 

If the return is viewed as underwhelming doesn't that mean the market held some degree of skepticism as well?

 

I think its a good deal for both sides. The Padres don't really give up anything of immediate value for a playoff caliber starter (that is 34 & costs 59 million), while the Cubs get a bunch of lottery tickets plus a guy who should eat some innings for a rotation that is currently pretty stark.

[Eye Black]

FanGraphs trade analysis article by Craig Edwards: Padres Give Up Prospects for Yu Darvish While Cubs Give Up

 

Also, the Padres rotation in 2022 should include: Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Chris Paddack and MacKenzie Gore (not to mention Lucchesi, Lamet, Weathers, Morejon, etc.)

 

Those first three pitchers (Clevinger, Snell, and Darvish) were acquired this year and the Padres surrendered just one total top 100 prospect to do it.

[sveumrules]

Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

 

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

 

Voting for plan B, obvs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

 

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

 

Voting for plan B, obvs.

 

Getting Darvish off the books frees up money to bring back both Lester and Quintana on short term modest deals, which I believe is their plan. If they held on to Darvish, they'd have an ace presumably but their rotation would be very, very thin. Also wouldn't shock me if they somehow landed Bauer instead of Lester/Quintana

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cubs cutting payroll. hilarious

 

Since buying the Cubs, the Ricketts family has done nothing but throw money at renovating Wrigley Field and buying/redeveloping property surrounding it to try and maximize gameday revenues - they had to refinance most of that development in 2019. This was all done under the assumption that it would quickly pay for itself with sold out stadiums and plenty of festivities happening even in the offseason for people to frequent and spend their money.

 

The Cubs are a huge market with their own sports network/TV deal as of 2020, but the amount of $ it took to get them set up that way definitely has their day to day business operations desperate for the revenue streams it projected from fans on gameday. Those revenue streams just aren't going to come fast enough for them to justify not slashing player payroll as well - the fact they are willing to deal their best pitcher from last season because he was still under a big contract and consider resigning Lester coming off the end of his bloated contract and buying him out for $10M because he would cost much less longterm tells you everything you need to know about what their balance sheet looks like headed into 2021. They've also laid off over 100 employees in baseball/business ops in the past year.

[homer]

They've said they're a billion in debt.

[Austin Tatious]

It would be an exaggeration for me to say I am an expert on the prospects the Cubs got. I have read about them recently because the Pads are a team we have dealt with last year and could

again.

 

But I suspect the Cubs’ fans’ temper tantrums won’t age well. The prospects for the most part are oozing with projectable talent and they are very young. As we all know, success requires a lot more than physical ability, or else Monte Harrison and Corey Ray would look like Willie Mays. The Cubs played the odds and I would not dismiss the notion that they get their next Gleyber Torres or Eloy Jiminez.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It would be an exaggeration for me to say I am an expert on the prospects the Cubs got. I have read about them recently because the Pads are a team we have dealt with last year and could

again.

 

But I suspect the Cubs’ fans’ temper tantrums won’t age well. The prospects for the most part are oozing with projectable talent and they are very young. As we all know, success requires a lot more than physical ability, or else Monte Harrison and Corey Ray would look like Willie Mays. The Cubs played the odds and I would not dismiss the notion that they get their next Gleyber Torres or Eloy Jiminez.

 

While as a homer Brewers fan I personally hope all four of those guys flame out, odds are at least one will turn out ok. But it won't be for awhile. The Cubs, it appears, are going into a rebuild, which just so happens to coincide with the Brewers having Yelich signed to a long-term deal through his prime years, along with big talent at the top of the rotation. I don't know if the Brewers are ever going to have a better opportunity to "go for it" in a division that is making big payroll cuts. I'm not advocating making a bunch of huge expenditures, but if the Brewers can grab a couple solid corner IF bats, and a couple solid additions to the rotation and pen, they are primed to be the projected top team in the division.

[monty57]

Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

 

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

 

Voting for plan B, obvs.

 

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. Cots has their estimated payroll for 2021 at $127,802,500, and Bryant (proj $19M), Baez (proj $11.25M), Rizzo ($16.5M), and Davies (proj $9M) will all be free agents after this season. The Darvish trade certainly looks like a rebuilding move, and all I can say is that if they go into a rebuild, it's going to be a big one.

[bjkrautk]

Probably a deal that makes some sense for both sides, but I'm going to hate watching Davies pitch for the Cubs in '21 more than I hated watching Darvish pitch for them in '20.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Only Cubs with guaranteed deals for 2022 are Heyward (22), Hendriks (14) & Bote (2.5) million.

 

Will be interesting to see if they maybe deal Bryant, bring back Lester/Quintana with the saved cash & make one last kinda sorta go for it year, or if they just decide to burn the whole thing to the ground.

 

Voting for plan B, obvs.

 

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. Cots has their estimated payroll for 2021 at $127,802,500, and Bryant (proj $19M), Baez (proj $11.25M), Rizzo ($16.5M), and Davies (proj $9M) will all be free agents after this season. The Darvish trade certainly looks like a rebuilding move, and all I can say is that if they go into a rebuild, it's going to be a big one.

 

It probably makes the best sense to pick one of Baez or Rizzo to keep and rebuild around, then trade off the rest to rebuild the farm system before losing them all as free agents.

[jerichoholicninja]

Good for the Padres for doing something but how often does the super team that wins the offseason wind up doing anything? After all this are they even better than the Dodgers on paper?

[SRB]

It's probably just my own selection bias, but does it ever end with player "values" wildly oscillating based solely on whether they happen to be Brewers players or players of a chosen genius franchise like the Cubs?

 

Luis Urias is considered an elite prospect... until he's traded to the Brewers and then he is chopped liver.

 

Zach Davies is a middling piece from a Brewers starting rotation that is supposed to be a laughing stock... and now that he is on the Cubs sites are declaring that he will "look good alongside Kyle Hendricks as the Cubs’ one-two in 2021." Because of <70 IP with a 3.88 FIP in 2020, or because he's no longer a Brewer?

 

The Rodney Dangerfield of MLB franchises - no respect!

[owbc]

The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Good for the Padres for doing something but how often does the super team that wins the offseason wind up doing anything? After all this are they even better than the Dodgers on paper?

 

No, not with Clevinger missing 2021 following his TJ surgery.

[owbc]

Cubs cutting payroll. hilarious

 

Since buying the Cubs, the Ricketts family has done nothing but throw money at renovating Wrigley Field and buying/redeveloping property surrounding it to try and maximize gameday revenues - they had to refinance most of that development in 2019. This was all done under the assumption that it would quickly pay for itself with sold out stadiums and plenty of festivities happening even in the offseason for people to frequent and spend their money.

 

The Cubs are a huge market with their own sports network/TV deal as of 2020, but the amount of $ it took to get them set up that way definitely has their day to day business operations desperate for the revenue streams it projected from fans on gameday. Those revenue streams just aren't going to come fast enough for them to justify not slashing player payroll as well - the fact they are willing to deal their best pitcher from last season because he was still under a big contract and consider resigning Lester coming off the end of his bloated contract and buying him out for $10M because he would cost much less longterm tells you everything you need to know about what their balance sheet looks like headed into 2021. They've also laid off over 100 employees in baseball/business ops in the past year.

 

They are literally using their MLB profits to pay off their real estate debt. Not even trying to hide it. And we wonder why MLBPA is livid at the owners right now?

 

On top of that, they have outraged a huge portion of their fanbase by moving TV broadcasts to an RSN which was a major reason Len Kasper jumped to the White Sox, who happen to be on the verge of being a serious playoff contender while the Cubs are tanking.

 

Couldn't happen to a better organization...let the schadenfreude flow.

[bjkrautk]

They are literally using their MLB profits to pay off their real estate debt. Not even trying to hide it. And we wonder why MLBPA is livid at the owners right now?

 

On top of that, they have outraged a huge portion of their fanbase by moving TV broadcasts to an RSN which was a major reason Len Kasper jumped to the White Sox, who happen to be on the verge of being a serious playoff contender while the Cubs are tanking.

 

Couldn't happen to a better organization...let the schadenfreude flow.

 

 

In fairness to the Cubs (a phrase I never thought I would say), they can't exactly air night games on WGN America anymore.

[brewcrewdue80]

The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.

 

And yet 2 teams can make the playoffs. Make a mockery of the added playoff teams. Tank and get in. Draft high. Maybe luck in upset the Padres or Dodgers in a 3 game series. Seriously want to root for 70s win division winner and wild card team like the NFC East being won at 6 or 7wins. Just in time to bargain a new CBA.

[MadThinker88]

The NL Central is going to suck in 2021.

 

And yet 2 teams can make the playoffs. Make a mockery of the added playoff teams. Tank and get in. Draft high. Maybe luck in upset the Padres or Dodgers in a 3 game series. Seriously want to root for 70s win division winner and wild card team like the NFC East being won at 6 or 7wins. Just in time to bargain a new CBA.

 

Its back to pitchers hitting in the NL & a total of 5 playoff teams for 2021 unless another 1 off agreement is made between the owners & MLBPA...