Josh Bell to Nationals

[Simba2020]

Bell goes to Washington for two right handed pitching prospects, Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. Crowe was the Nationals third ranked prospect and Yean their 6th. Crowe struggled in his three starts with the Nationals last year and is already 26.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Bell goes to Washington for two right handed pitching prospects, Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. Crowe was the Nationals third ranked prospect and Yean their 6th. Crowe struggled in his three starts with the Nationals last year and is already 26.

 

As a comparison, the Brewers' #3 and #6 ranked prospects are lefties Ethan Small and Aaron Ashby. Tough to find a easy comparison to Crowe and Yean. Someone like Zach Brown is probably a notch below Crowe. Brewers don't really have many young pitching prospects. Antoine Kelly maybe?

[nate82]

Bell to Nationals for Minor League pitchers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-bell-deal-with-nationals-pirates

[Eye Black]

I know his track record is spotty, but I think it’s worth betting on Josh Bell to bounce back a bit. Good move for the Nationals, IMO.

 

Also, not a surprising move given the Pirates situation, but it is sort of wild how the NL Central teams have mostly subtracted from their rosters this so far this offseason.

 

Happy Holidays everyone!

[nate82]

Comparable prospects from the Brewers would be Kelly and Small. I like Kelly over Yean and Crowe over Small.

[NYChez]

Bad info from Buster Olney. There is not market saturation of slugging first basemen. Only nine at the position had an OPS over .800 last season. This was about Bell having a bad year and both sides placing bets on whether it was a trend or a blip.

 

[Eye Black]

I’m always a little skeptical regarding the concept of “lineup protection”, but I do think being surrounded by better hitters could give Bell a boost in Washington.

[nate82]

Bad info from Buster Olney. There is not market saturation of slugging first basemen. Only nine at the position had an OPS over .800 last season. This was about Bell having a bad year and both sides placing bets on whether it was a trend or a blip.

 

 

Supply is definitely outweighing demand for first basemen at this time. Sure Bell is at the top of the market but he is going to be coming in at a reduced price no matter what he did last year.

[Lathund]

Maybe his 2019 was a breakout, maybe not. But overall he is 28, with 114 wrc+ over 4 seasons as a 1B, has two years of control left and is due to earn 5-7m (according to the mlbtr projections) for the first of them. The return reflects that. I don't think this would've been a good use of money or prospects for the Brewers.

[JosephC]

I had taken a look at Bell's value last December and concluded that the general public probably had really over-estimated his value. So fast-forward 12 months and there is one less year of control and he's coming off a bad performance in a shortened season. He's a train-wreck wherever you put him defensively and his performance was a bit variable even in his one big season. Here is a link to the thread where I figured going in that he'd have 40+ million in surplus value easily but was more around 25 million after actually looking at all the numbers.

 

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=39403

 

Pro-rate 2020 out to a full season and Bell has a 2.3 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR combined over the last three seasons. That makes him a really mediocre 0.7 WAR player per season. OK, let's completely throw out 2020 and pretend that didn't ever happen. Doing that bounces Bell to a 4.0 fWAR from 2017-2019 and a 3.8 bWAR player over that same timeframe. So if you ignore 2020 like it didn't even happen, Bell is still only a 1.3 WAR player per season.

 

Steamer has projected him as a 1.1 WAR player in 2021 and I can't argue with that number based on his history.

 

I'd probably just put him as being worth 2.6 WAR total over his next two seasons. Just using the 9 million per WAR that would put him at 23.4 million in value. Arbitration estimate for this year is 7.2 million and I'd guess something like 9.5 million the following year. That would put his surplus value down to just +6.7 million dollars...about the value of a role-player prospect + a fringe prospect.

 

Slashing .261/.349/.466/.814 looks pretty nice until it becomes obvious that the player has major deficiencies in other areas. Granted, Eric Thames had pretty severe splits but he was still a .241/.343/.504/.848 hitter in Milwaukee and there weren't any riots when he left town, and he would have carried a much cheaper price-tag than what Bell will carry the next two seasons.

[Austin Tatious]

Bell goes to Washington for two right handed pitching prospects, Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. Crowe was the Nationals third ranked prospect and Yean their 6th. Crowe struggled in his three starts with the Nationals last year and is already 26.

 

As a comparison, the Brewers' #3 and #6 ranked prospects are lefties Ethan Small and Aaron Ashby. Tough to find a easy comparison to Crowe and Yean. Someone like Zach Brown is probably a notch below Crowe. Brewers don't really have many young pitching prospects. Antoine Kelly maybe?

 

I would have Kelly off the table. I’m very high on him. His ceiling is very high, IMO.

[TURBO]

So two of Small, Ashby and Kelly for Bell?

 

No freaking way! Not a chance in hell...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So two of Small, Ashby and Kelly for Bell?

 

No freaking way! Not a chance in hell...

 

Right. Just putting the cost that the Nationals paid for Bell in perspective for those who think the Pirates are giving him away. They aren't. Crowe and Yean are very good prospects.

[TURBO]

I know his track record is spotty, but I think it’s worth betting on Josh Bell to bounce back a bit. Good move for the Nationals, IMO.

 

Also, not a surprising move given the Pirates situation, but it is sort of wild how the NL Central teams have mostly subtracted from their rosters this so far this offseason.

 

Happy Holidays everyone!

 

Good move for the Nationals? If we gave up that type of player(s) for Bell, I'd be outraged! I guess it is all in how you look at it, but man, if that is what it would have cost us, I'm pretty happy we were not involved.

[nate82]

So two of Small, Ashby and Kelly for Bell?

 

No freaking way! Not a chance in hell...

 

Right. Just putting the cost that the Nationals paid for Bell in perspective for those who think the Pirates are giving him away. They aren't Crowe and Yean are very good prospects.

 

They are good prospects but definitely not what a lot would have thought Bell would cost about 1-2 years ago. This is definitely a deflated price as neither of the players traded for Bell are in the top 100. Yean ranks 7th in the Pirates system and Crowe 17th while it is a nice deal for the Pirates it is not a big haul or what was expected for him just 1-2 years ago which was at least one 50-100 player plus one or two other prospects.

[Eye Black]

Good move for the Nationals? If we gave up that type of player(s) for Bell, I'd be outraged! I guess it is all in how you look at it, but man, if that is what it would have cost us, I'm pretty happy we were not involved.

I’m not sure either pitching prospect is a great return. I would certainly bet against Crowe becoming an impact MLB arm, and I don’t know enough about Yean. Baseball America had Yean ranked #8 in the Nationals system and Crowe ranked #10. That’s in a system that many are now ranking below the Brewers farm system. The return isn’t nothing, but I also don’t think it’s on par with guys like Kelly or even Small.

 

I’m not even suggesting it was something the Brewers should’ve done, just that I think the Nationals picked up a potentially solid switch hitter for a return I don’t believe is as impactful as apparently some others do. I could certainly be wrong, and time will tell. I’m fairly certain I’m higher on Bell than most, and I do fully understand the arguments against him. As others have pointed out there are serious flaws, but he’s also shown glimpses of elite hitting ability that’s hard to totally give up on.