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Alex Claudio to Angels - one year, $1.125 million


So much for a second reunion with Claudio following his non-tender. He's bringing his junkballs to the Angels for the bargain-basement price of $1.125 million.

 

I'm ok with this. I think the Brewers have better options available, although Claudio for the most part was decent in his two seasons as a Brewer. It will be interesting to see if they give Small or Ashby the chance to stick as a lefty specialist in the pen, or if that is Lauer's future role.

 

In the end, giving up a Competitive Balance Round A pick for Claudio was probably not a great value.

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He was the same guy for us that he was for everyone else in his entire career - a LOOGY who didn't have success when forced into a role that included facing a lot of righty bats.

 

Glad to move on. Unfortunately for guys like Claudio, baseball is trying to move away from specialized bullpen roles.

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David Wendzel, a collegiate power hitting 3rd Baseman who hasn’t really played much in the minors was the Rangers choice with that Comp Balance Pick. He’s their #12 overall prospect. Their system is ranked above the Brewers. Claudio pitched a lot and was just ok for the Brewers, given their system and it’s holes for corner infielders they probably should’ve kept the pick and selected Wendzel themselves.
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David Wendzel, a collegiate power hitting 3rd Baseman who hasn’t really played much in the minors was the Rangers choice with that Comp Balance Pick. He’s their #12 overall prospect. Their system is ranked above the Brewers. Claudio pitched a lot and was just ok for the Brewers, given their system and it’s holes for corner infielders they probably should’ve kept the pick and selected Wendzel themselves.

 

 

Given our history with Richardson, Walla, Ray, Davis, Frederickson, Bradley, Jungmann, Covey, etc etc etc, I'm confident we got more use out of Claudio than we would have a draft pick.

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David Wendzel, a collegiate power hitting 3rd Baseman who hasn’t really played much in the minors was the Rangers choice with that Comp Balance Pick. He’s their #12 overall prospect. Their system is ranked above the Brewers. Claudio pitched a lot and was just ok for the Brewers, given their system and it’s holes for corner infielders they probably should’ve kept the pick and selected Wendzel themselves.

 

 

Given our history with Richardson, Walla, Ray, Davis, Frederickson, Bradley, Jungmann, Covey, etc etc etc, I'm confident we got more use out of Claudio than we would have a draft pick.

 

We did get a pick for Covey though, right?

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David Wendzel, a collegiate power hitting 3rd Baseman who hasn’t really played much in the minors was the Rangers choice with that Comp Balance Pick. He’s their #12 overall prospect. Their system is ranked above the Brewers. Claudio pitched a lot and was just ok for the Brewers, given their system and it’s holes for corner infielders they probably should’ve kept the pick and selected Wendzel themselves.

 

 

Given our history with Richardson, Walla, Ray, Davis, Frederickson, Bradley, Jungmann, Covey, etc etc etc, I'm confident we got more use out of Claudio than we would have a draft pick.

 

We did get a pick for Covey though, right?

 

Yeah ... pretty sure the pick ended up being Jed Bradley. So yeah ...

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David Wendzel, a collegiate power hitting 3rd Baseman who hasn’t really played much in the minors was the Rangers choice with that Comp Balance Pick. He’s their #12 overall prospect. Their system is ranked above the Brewers. Claudio pitched a lot and was just ok for the Brewers, given their system and it’s holes for corner infielders they probably should’ve kept the pick and selected Wendzel themselves.

Most draft picks don't end up amounting to much. Looking at the drafts from 1987 to 2011, for example, 9 of the 25 players drafted at #41 never even made it to the big leagues. Of those that did, probably the "best" hitter was Chris Owings and the best pitchers Sean Doolittle and Joba Chamberlain. Most of the others had very limited careers. Overall, outside of the very top of the draft, most picks are basically all lottery picks that can hit but most likely will fail. Is it worth trading a lottery pick for a guy like Claudio with a fairly reliable, albeit limited floor? Personally I would not had made the trade but based on the likelihood of the outcomes, it was probably close to a fair trade.

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Like many, I did not like the Claudio trade from the start. And it turns out it the Brewers got very little value for it.

 

I realize the draft is lottery, but that's exactly why you need as many lottery tickets as possible.

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Claudio gave us some good moments and some frustrating ones, though generally more decent than lousy. Kind of a middling, serviceable BP guy. Nothing stellar but also not a bad value for what he was paid -- and it doesn't bother me to see him go.

 

As dubious as I felt the trade potentially was, I simply moved on and didn't dwell on it. That said, I totally get the lingering frustration with giving up a CB pick for him. For a team like the Brewers, those picks are nice gifts and should be respected for their potential value, not readily discarded for something that's hopefully more appealing just because it's shiny & immediate.

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Out of curiosity, I looked up the value of the #41 pick in the 2019 draft (traded for Claudio).

 

Fangraphs has that pick listed at $7.4M of value based on $9M/WAR. Thus, 0.8 WAR.

 

Fangraphs has Claudio at -0.1 WAR for the last two years. Baseball reference has 0.7 WAR.

 

The player picked at #41 (Davis Wendzel) has 19 total ABs in 2019 (and none listed for 2020 obviously).

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If I recall correctly, the Grandal signing reduced the cost of losing the CB pick substantially, which probably Stearns had planned and accounted for. If we hadn’t traded the CB pick, we would have lost our 2nd round pick (A Kelly) but instead lost our third round pick for Grandal. With how well Kelly seems to be progressing, he is likely worth more than whomever we would have taken at 41. The ultimate way to evaluate the trade is if you prefer Kelly plus 2 decent, inexpensive years of Claudio versus who we would have taken at 41 plus a low odds of success late 3rd round pick. I think we wound up fine.
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Out of curiosity, I looked up the value of the #41 pick in the 2019 draft (traded for Claudio).

 

Fangraphs has that pick listed at $7.4M of value based on $9M/WAR. Thus, 0.8 WAR.

 

Fangraphs has Claudio at -0.1 WAR for the last two years. Baseball reference has 0.7 WAR.

 

The player picked at #41 (Davis Wendzel) has 19 total ABs in 2019 (and none listed for 2020 obviously).

Personally I have never cared for Fangraphs or others to quote the value per WAR at $9 million or even more. Teams may end up paying that much for WAR but that's because guys like Pujols, David Wright, Ellsbury, Miguel Cabrera (and many, many more) make tons of money while producing little or no WAR. Such players are worth a fraction of what they are being paid and could only be traded with the inclusion of tons of cash if at all. So when those guys are included, it artificially drives up the value per WAR conclusion. Free agent hitters typically sign for $4 to $5 million per WAR and that's what should be used in trying to value draft picks in my opinion.

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Out of curiosity, I looked up the value of the #41 pick in the 2019 draft (traded for Claudio).

 

Fangraphs has that pick listed at $7.4M of value based on $9M/WAR. Thus, 0.8 WAR.

 

Fangraphs has Claudio at -0.1 WAR for the last two years. Baseball reference has 0.7 WAR.

 

The player picked at #41 (Davis Wendzel) has 19 total ABs in 2019 (and none listed for 2020 obviously).

Personally I have never cared for Fangraphs or others to quote the value per WAR at $9 million or even more. Teams may end up paying that much for WAR but that's because guys like Pujols, David Wright, Ellsbury, Miguel Cabrera (and many, many more) make tons of money while producing little or no WAR. Such players are worth a fraction of what they are being paid and could only be traded with the inclusion of tons of cash if at all. So when those guys are included, it artificially drives up the value per WAR conclusion. Free agent hitters typically sign for $4 to $5 million per WAR and that's what should be used in trying to value draft picks in my opinion.

That is why I left the comparison at WAR and not $$. The $9M/WAR is only used to convert their own (Fangraphs) value numbers per draft pick to WAR.

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