Woodruff arby eligible qualifies as Super 2

[RollieTime]

I don’t think extending Woodruff is something that we will look at doing at this point. We control him through his age 31 season already. If we do look to extend him, I think buying out 2 years of free agency would be about the most I would do for him. Something like:

 

$5

$7

$10

$12

$15

$15

 

Comes out to 6/$64 million. He locks up life changing money right now regardless of injury and performance instead of going through the arby process multiple times and having a down season that will impact how much he gets later in the arby process. Remember he is 4 years from free agency and doesn’t have a ton of leverage in that regard. Him hitting free agency at 32 also isn’t extremely appealing to organizations unless you are a cream of the crop type guy, which he may be. But is it worth the risk to him? A guaranteed $64 million is a lot to walk away from.

 

Of course he is also a candidate to be moved with 2 years of control left to restock the farm. If he pitches like he did in 2020 the next two seasons, he will arguably be the most coveted arm on the trade block.

[brewcrewdue80]

This article looks into a Walker Buehler extension, which might not be a perfect comp because he is younger than Woodruff, but it has some good recent extensions that can be used as jumping off points...

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2020/03/19/what-could-a-walker-buehler-contract-extension-with-the-dodgers-look-like/

 

Mikolas (4/68) might be a little different situation since I'm not sure what his service time/arby situation was after coming back from Japan, but Luis Severino (4/40), German Marquez (4/42) & Blake Snell (4/49) all extended in 2019 with similar service time as Brandon.

 

Hitting free agency at age 32 could work in favor of Woodruff maybe being a little more willing to trade some potential future earnings for a guaranteed payday now since he is unlikely to land a multi year FA mega deal at that age.

 

The last guy that old I could think of who really cashed in was Zach Greinke getting 6/206.5 from Arizona heading into his age 32 season back in 2016. He's posted 844 IP of 79 ERA- / 82 FIP- work since signing good for 20.2 runs allowed based WAR (8th) / 17.6 FIP based WAR (10th), so he has pretty much earned his money, 88 MPH fastball & all.

 

4 year contracts are essentially buying out the arbitration years. Not "Extending" what I consider beyond a team's control of a player. Now certainly buying out arb years is extending his 1year contract. But my idea on extending tacks on FA years. In the argument for Buehler that was 18mil end of team control and 28mil 1 FA year.

 

If we don't extend him to a FA year/option, then year to year has to be your best interest moving forward. All it takes is one TJ or shoulder/elbow injury to affect the 4years, year to year. Instead of a say 5, 10, 16, 23 trend line you might pause 10 or 16 and not see 23. May look like 5/10/10/16 instead or 5/10/16/16.

Extreme sample is 54mil heathy y2y. You're other 2 look like 41 or 47mil. So a buyout extension ought to fill 4/38-42 to lock down worst case for Woodruff scenario when looking for cost savings.

 

Well I looked up arb range for David Price whom for whatever reason I remembered his last arb for super 2 to be much higher than what it was. I knew it was a record but I thought it was in range of 23-27mil but its actually below 20 at 19.75mil.

 

So my arb guesses are offbase. Looks on MLBTR the model is 2.3-4.5 for this year. Middle would be 3.4. Much lower starting point than 5 I was thinking he was around.

So basically ignore my previous number guessing. Get back to this another time.

[Brewers Numbers]

I think James Paxton is a good comp. He was a super 2 guy who has 3-4 fWAR each year and got 2.3/4.9/8.5/12.5. Add 16M for the first FA year and an option for $18-20M the following year with a $2.5M buyout. 5/$46.5M.

[djoctagone]

still many weeks before arbitration hearings. will a deal be struck today with woodruff, or will they exchange figures?

[patrickgpe]

jsonline is reporting that brewers are close with him and hader

[MrTPlush]

I think James Paxton is a good comp. He was a super 2 guy who has 3-4 fWAR each year and got 2.3/4.9/8.5/12.5. Add 16M for the first FA year and an option for $18-20M the following year with a $2.5M buyout. 5/$46.5M.

 

Decent comp, but why would the Brewers even want to do that deal? There is a ton of risk for what would be one extra year at $16mil.

 

You are also forgetting the inflation of Paxton’s salary for what is half a decade later. If Woodruff is similar he will certainly earn a good chunk more than Paxton did just because it is half a decade later.

[djoctagone]

brandon woodruff has agreed to terms with the brewers on a one-year contract. no details yet.

[adambr2]

Cue the "ONE YEAR??!! WHY ONLY ONE YEAR??!!" comments on Facebook and Twitter.

[markedman5]

[djoctagone]

reported deal for brandon woodruff is $3.275 mm. woodruff has three years remaining of arbitration eligibility.

[MadThinker88]

reported deal for brandon woodruff is $3.275 mm. woodruff has four years remaining of arbitration eligibility.

 

small correction/ clarification....

 

This season is 1 of the 4 arbitration years (due to Woodruff getting super 2 status). Majority of players only get 3 arbitration years.

Unless Woodruff signs a deal that buys out a FA year, he is a FA after the 2024 season

 

IF 2021 was a non-arbitration season, then the Brewers could have renewed the Woodruff contract for any amount they saw fit and Woodruff would have no recourse but to accept it..

[djoctagone]

my error. prior to today's contract, woodruff had four years of arbitration eligibility.