Woodruff arby eligible qualifies as Super 2

[Brewcrewin07]

[MNBrew]

Not ideal news but so it goes. Part of doing business.

 

He & Burnes are our TOR guys and we need 'em. Pay him and don't try to get cute about it.

[PeaveyFury]

I think this was largely expected, so not surprising news at all. Most offseason payroll projections had included this assumption, FWIW.

[wibadgers23]

Not an expert with this stuff so what the heck does this mean going forward?

[MadThinker88]

Not an expert with this stuff so what the heck does this mean going forward?

 

Barring Woodruff signing a multi-year deal, he will get 4 bites at the arbitration wage increase apple instead of the normal 3..

His salary in 2021 (assuming a season) will be much greater than earlier (non Super 2 determination) projections..

 

Additionally his later pre-free agent years with MKE (or another club) will be more expensive if he maintains his effectiveness...

[JimH5]

Great for him!

 

The players and the owners agreed to the system, and he earned whatever leverage arbitration gives him.

[pacopete4]

Yes, screw the owners. Pay the man!

[Outlander]

It was already known he would be super 2, he is at 2.161. Glad they have him four years instead of three.

[trwi7]

Not an expert with this stuff so what the heck does this mean going forward?

 

Nothing. Just instead of going to arby 3 times, he goes 4.

[PeaveyFury]

Not an expert with this stuff so what the heck does this mean going forward?

 

Nothing. Just instead of going to arby 3 times, he goes 4.

 

I mean, nothing other than the significant financial ramifications both now and over the four arbitration years....

[Outlander]

I don't really think it is significant either other than the Brewers have the option to keep him another year. If the Brewers called him up two weeks earlier he would be a boring first year arbitration player with three years service time. Everything will be the same between 2021-2023 no matter if he was labeled super two or not. Since the Brewers kept him barely below the three year mark they have the option to keep him a 7th year at a high price when the time comes. This also assumes the next contract doesn't change anything and there is no extension.

[Jopal78]

Not an expert with this stuff so what the heck does this mean going forward?

 

Nothing. Just instead of going to arby 3 times, he goes 4.

 

I mean, nothing other than the significant financial ramifications both now and over the four arbitration years....

 

Talent costs money, and with the way service time is manipulated by major league clubs it’s a certainty the Brewers knew this was likely going to be the case. I mean, it is no big deal he goes through arbitration 4 times not 3.

[PeaveyFury]

To be clear, this can be completely expected as this was, completely earned/owed to Woodruff, while also being a big deal to the Brewers, especially considering expected finances for this year. They've know this for months, but it still has an impact going forward.

[Outlander]

With a guy like Hader it has an impact because they were manipulating service time to prevent him from being super two but they misjudged and he still ended up being super 2 and will cost them financially. With Woodruff they were manipulating service time to gain an extra year of control from him, this might help with an extension because Woodruff will have to wait another year for free agency since he will not be a free agent until his age 32 season. They are fine with him being super two because they that was their intention.

[DHonks]

With a guy like Hader it has an impact because they were manipulating service time to prevent him from being super two but they misjudged and he still ended up being super 2 and will cost them financially. With Woodruff they were manipulating service time to gain an extra year of control from him, this might help with an extension because Woodruff will have to wait another year for free agency since he will not be a free agent until his age 32 season. They are fine with him being super two because they that was their intention.

 

Since when did they manipulate it with Hader? He was a moderately effective minor league starter/reliever with great stuff and inconsistent results. It's not like he was putting up video game numbers in the minors. Your statement is the first time I've heard them accused of manipulating service time.

 

I've read comments from baseball personnel that while some teams do manipulate service time, most MLB officials would rather bring up a kid to help them win today, even if it costs them a few million dollars in the long run. The only real manipulation that is widespread is keeping someone in the minors to give them 7 years before reaching free agency rather than 6

[brewmann04]

the Brewers need to pay him we need him and Burnes at that top of the rotation.

[clancyphile]

Hmmm... I'd offer a six-year, $51 million deal - $8.5 million a year, buy out two FA years. His bonus wasn't that high... a guaranteed $51 million might lock down the rotation for a while, and if a team needs a starter, and the Crew needs to re-tool...

[brewcrewdue80]

Good luck signing Woodruff to an extension. His best interest is waiting til the new CBA is complete. This is a guy that's trending in the 20+mil maybe even 30mil a year in FA. Now that hes reached Super 2 he's getting life changing money already now. A TJ wont stop him from a 5-7mil starting point the following year's Arb. He's big time from here on out. If he doesnt have Boros as his agent that will likely be his next step. Woodruff is Lance Lynnx2. Better and value adjust accordingly. Add a 1 before the 8 and then you may be enticing him to sign an extension 18.5mil per year 2 years after team control.

[monty57]

To be clear, this can be completely expected as this was, completely earned/owed to Woodruff, while also being a big deal to the Brewers, especially considering expected finances for this year. They've know this for months, but it still has an impact going forward.

 

Agree. Woodruff is worth the money, but the Brewers' total team payroll won't increase (at least not significantly), so paying Woodruff more just means that they won't have extra money to pay someone else.

[Brewers Numbers]

Good luck signing Woodruff to an extension. His best interest is waiting til the new CBA is complete. This is a guy that's trending in the 20+mil maybe even 30mil a year in FA. Now that hes reached Super 2 he's getting life changing money already now. A TJ wont stop him from a 5-7mil starting point the following year's Arb. He's big time from here on out. If he doesnt have Boros as his agent that will likely be his next step. Woodruff is Lance Lynnx2. Better and value adjust accordingly. Add a 1 before the 8 and then you may be enticing him to sign an extension 18.5mil per year 2 years after team control.

Woody? Is that you?

[MrTPlush]

Yah...don’t think $51mil is getting it done. I’m guessing we would have to be more in the $70mil range to get it done.

 

$4mil

$7.5mil

$11.5mil

$15.5mil

$16mil

$16mil

 

That is about 6/$70mil...probably something like that is what it would take. Of course he may decline that too...any extension would ruin his one shot at a big FA deal. He is set to hit FA for his age 32 season. An extension that buys out two more years suddenly makes him 34 in FA.

 

I don’t really like an extension for Woodruff...which I have said before. We still control him 4 more years through his age 31 season at a reasonable cost if he is truly a great pitcher. I don’t see any reason to take on a bunch of risk for his age 32/33 seasons. Usually an extension like this is to buy out more of their prime, which with Woodruff we would arguably be gambling to have the start of his decline under control.

[sveumrules]

This article looks into a Walker Buehler extension, which might not be a perfect comp because he is younger than Woodruff, but it has some good recent extensions that can be used as jumping off points...

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2020/03/19/what-could-a-walker-buehler-contract-extension-with-the-dodgers-look-like/

 

Mikolas (4/68) might be a little different situation since I'm not sure what his service time/arby situation was after coming back from Japan, but Luis Severino (4/40), German Marquez (4/42) & Blake Snell (4/49) all extended in 2019 with similar service time as Brandon.

 

Hitting free agency at age 32 could work in favor of Woodruff maybe being a little more willing to trade some potential future earnings for a guaranteed payday now since he is unlikely to land a multi year FA mega deal at that age.

 

The last guy that old I could think of who really cashed in was Zach Greinke getting 6/206.5 from Arizona heading into his age 32 season back in 2016. He's posted 844 IP of 79 ERA- / 82 FIP- work since signing good for 20.2 runs allowed based WAR (8th) / 17.6 FIP based WAR (10th), so he has pretty much earned his money, 88 MPH fastball & all.

[adambr2]

This was a foregone conclusion for quite some time. He was much closer to getting to free agency a year earlier than he was to missing the Super 2 cutoff. The big thing is getting that extra year of control, I'm fine like others just going year to year with him. We can't commit large amounts of future guaranteed money to everyone.

[brewcrewdue80]

This article looks into a Walker Buehler extension, which might not be a perfect comp because he is younger than Woodruff, but it has some good recent extensions that can be used as jumping off points...

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2020/03/19/what-could-a-walker-buehler-contract-extension-with-the-dodgers-look-like/

 

Mikolas (4/68) might be a little different situation since I'm not sure what his service time/arby situation was after coming back from Japan, but Luis Severino (4/40), German Marquez (4/42) & Blake Snell (4/49) all extended in 2019 with similar service time as Brandon.

 

Hitting free agency at age 32 could work in favor of Woodruff maybe being a little more willing to trade some potential future earnings for a guaranteed payday now since he is unlikely to land a multi year FA mega deal at that age.

 

The last guy that old I could think of who really cashed in was Zach Greinke getting 6/206.5 from Arizona heading into his age 32 season back in 2016. He's posted 844 IP of 79 ERA- / 82 FIP- work since signing good for 20.2 runs allowed based WAR (8th) / 17.6 FIP based WAR (10th), so he has pretty much earned his money, 88 MPH fastball & all.

 

4 year contracts are essentially buying out the arbitration years. Not "Extending" what I consider beyond a team's control of a player. Now certainly buying out arb years is extending his 1year contract. But my idea on extending tacks on FA years. In the argument for Buehler that was 18mil end of team control and 28mil 1 FA year.

 

If we don't extend him to a FA year/option, then year to year has to be your best interest moving forward. All it takes is one TJ or shoulder/elbow injury to affect the 4years, year to year. Instead of a say 5, 10, 16, 23 trend line you might pause 10 or 16 and not see 23. May look like 5/10/10/16 instead or 5/10/16/16.

Extreme sample is 54mil heathy y2y. You're other 2 look like 41 or 47mil. So a buyout extension ought to fill 4/38-42 to lock down worst case for Woodruff scenario when looking for cost savings.

[Brewers Numbers]

The Walker Buehler article didn't include the option years just the buyouts, both Severino and Marquez had option years. Snell got his contract after winning the Cy Young and putting up a 4.8 fWAR. Severino had Cy Young votes in 2017 and 2018 and fWARs of 5.6 and 5.4 respectively. Marquez had a fWAR of 4.1 before he got his contract and he was in the running for ROY the year before that. Brandon had a good 2020 but I'm not sure those are appropriate comps yet.