White Sox acquire Lance Lynn from Rangers

[brewcrewdue80]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/white-sox-to-acquire-lance-lynn.html

 

Dane Dunning headlines return. MLB's #5 White Sox prospect and #98 on top 100 overall.

Plus another player, CWS 6th rd pick in 2019 Avery Weems a LHP

 

Surprised this isn't posted already.

[Madhawk23]

Does this paint any picture at all on what we could reasonably expect to get back in a Hader deal? I know SP's are valued more than relievers, but a team would also be getting more years out of Hader than just the one that the CWS are getting with Lynn.

 

Just curious what everyone's thoughts are with this deal? Did the Rangers get enough in this deal, did the CWS give up too much for just one year of Lynn?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Does this paint any picture at all on what we could reasonably expect to get back in a Hader deal? I know SP's are valued more than relievers, but a team would also be getting more years out of Hader than just the one that the CWS are getting with Lynn.

 

Just curious what everyone's thoughts are with this deal? Did the Rangers get enough in this deal, did the CWS give up too much for just one year of Lynn?

 

Lynn is a solid starter, but I don't think anyone would consider him elite. Hader is elite.

 

Dunning is a very good, controllable young pitcher, though. He's a very solid return for one year of Lynn. Weems is a nice piece as well. I think the Rangers did really well on this deal.

[sveumrules]

Does this paint any picture at all on what we could reasonably expect to get back in a Hader deal? I know SP's are valued more than relievers, but a team would also be getting more years out of Hader than just the one that the CWS are getting with Lynn.

 

Just curious what everyone's thoughts are with this deal? Did the Rangers get enough in this deal, did the CWS give up too much for just one year of Lynn?

 

Lynn is a solid starter, but I don't think anyone would consider him elite. Hader is elite.

 

Dunning is a very good, controllable young pitcher, though. He's a very solid return for one year of Lynn. Weems is a nice piece as well. I think the Rangers did really well on this deal.

 

Over the last two years, Lynn is 5th among starters in FIP based WAR (8.3) & 6th in runs allowed based WAR (8.6). Among relievers Hader has been 5th in FIP based WAR (2.6) & 4th by runs allowed based WAR (3.2).

 

Hader is younger, has a better pre-2019 track record & comes with more years of control, but he is also going to make around 25 million in Arby's where Lynn is only at 9.33 million in salary for one year.

 

Josh's value is probably a scooch higher, but I don't think it's that much higher that someone bowls over Stearns & company with an offer the majority of this board (or Brewer fandom in general) would be happy with.

[PeaveyFury]

Over the last two years, Lynn is 5th among starters in FIP based WAR (8.3) & 6th in runs allowed based WAR (8.6).

 

Your point is 100% factually correct and noteworthy. But it's impossible not to also look at his stats and observe that this includes a fluky-looking outlier season at age 32 that accounted for 30% of his CAREER bWAR.

[Jopal78]

Does this paint any picture at all on what we could reasonably expect to get back in a Hader deal? I know SP's are valued more than relievers, but a team would also be getting more years out of Hader than just the one that the CWS are getting with Lynn.

 

Just curious what everyone's thoughts are with this deal? Did the Rangers get enough in this deal, did the CWS give up too much for just one year of Lynn?

 

As a comparison to Hader, the big difference is Lance Lynn is outpitching his contract. He's been a combined 10 WAR pitcher the last two years and has been paid only 20 million dollars over that same period of time. By comparison, Kershaw has been a 4.8 WAR pitcher the last two years and was paid 60+ million dollars. Greinke has been a 6.5 WAR and has been paid 70 million. Verlander was a 14 WAR pitcher in '18 and '19 and was paid 56 million dollars.

 

In other words, for a team to go out and hire a pitcher to produce what Lynn has done the last two years would costs them 25 to 30 million dollars per year. In those terms they upgraded their rotation significantly without breaking the piggybank or having to give up one of their key players. The Rangers have to be thrilled to get a pitcher who was a first round pick, has already had success at the big leagues, made a start in the post season and is pre-arbitration eligible.

 

Hader, on the other hand, is an elite reliever but with an anticipated salary approaching 7 million dollars, is also no longer cheap for his position. The question facing other teams will be is it worth the capital to acquire Hader or are they better served to acquire Brad Hand, Archie Bradley etc. who are obviously lesser pitchers but also won't cost the minor league capital or money that Hader will command over the next several seasons.

 

I'm sure the Brewers could trade him if they wanted, but I doubt there will be the feeding frenzy, and they'd be best served to hang on to him until the next trade deadline at least.

[jerichoholicninja]

The White Sox look primed to be the next team to correctly do a rebuild only to screw it all up the first time they look competitive.

[stoutdude04]

Over the last two years, Lynn is 5th among starters in FIP based WAR (8.3) & 6th in runs allowed based WAR (8.6).

 

Your point is 100% factually correct and noteworthy. But it's impossible not to also look at his stats and observe that this includes a fluky-looking outlier season at age 32 that accounted for 30% of his CAREER bWAR.

 

True, but you could also say he had a 1ish year run where he performed worse than his career numbers. I was shocked to see just how consistent Lynn has been over the years. I remember when he was with the Cardinals how 'average' he seemed, but he has consistently been a mid 3s starter for a lot of his career.

[brewcrewdue80]

Over the last two years, Lynn is 5th among starters in FIP based WAR (8.3) & 6th in runs allowed based WAR (8.6).

 

Your point is 100% factually correct and noteworthy. But it's impossible not to also look at his stats and observe that this includes a fluky-looking outlier season at age 32 that accounted for 30% of his CAREER bWAR.

 

Why can't it be that 2018 was the fluky season and Lynn is just a good pitcher?

 

I think the Rangers got back a good return and as someone sentiments above, White Sox could be turning over a successful rebuild and ruin it as fast as they can.

[JohnBriggs12]

Heard Steve Stone comment on WSCR this morning. Belief is Lynn made adjustments a few years back and that's accounted for his improved results. A lot had to do with pitching metrics and all the new info available but his pitches now look the same longer than before.

 

Still Dunning looked a lot like a controllable young middle of the rotation starter last year so that's an awfully high price for one year of Lance Lynn. I'm not thrilled with their signing Adam Eaton for one year $7+ million either. Ben Gamel put up better numbers than Eaton last year.

[sveumrules]

Over the last two years, Lynn is 5th among starters in FIP based WAR (8.3) & 6th in runs allowed based WAR (8.6).

 

Your point is 100% factually correct and noteworthy. But it's impossible not to also look at his stats and observe that this includes a fluky-looking outlier season at age 32 that accounted for 30% of his CAREER bWAR.

 

In 2017 & 2018, Lynn threw his sinker 42.1 & 32.7 percent of the time. In 2019 & 2020 those percentages dropped to 17.3% & 18.5%. The change in results are backed up by a change in pitch usage, so they might be less fluky than a typical outlier year.

 

ZiPS bought into the changes. Coming into 2019 they had Lynn projected for a 100 ERA+, the league average innings eater he has always been. After posting that 141 ERA+ over 208 IP in 2019 his 2020 projection went up to a 120 ERA+. He followed that up with a league best 84 IP & a 136 ERA+, so I wouldn't be surprised if his projection came in around 125-130 ERA+ for 2021.

[PeaveyFury]

Why can't it be that 2018 was the fluky season and Lynn is just a good pitcher?

 

Didn't say that he wasn't a good pitcher. As 2019's WAR was twice the WAR he's typically averaged in a season, it's nearly the definition of an outlier. As others noted, it is possible he figured something out. Whether that will continue through his mid to late 30s now remains to be seen.

[Austin Tatious]

I’m not as alarmist on Hader’s value as some are. You definitely don’t panic-sell him and Stearns has never done such a thing. He never did trade Braun.

 

If you can’t get value for him, and you are relegated to pay him $7M you do it. Financial austerity is fine in theory but that’s a manageable number given what an impact talent he is. You need to balance the assets on your ballclub with the concomitant outlays. Here it’s worth it to pay the salary if need be.

 

The whole league knows Stearns wants a lot for him. Either somebody will give it up to get an *absolute weapon* (let’s not kid ourselves) or Milwaukee keeps him with three years of control.

 

As Jopal wisely pointed out, we can always trade him later if someone pulls the trigger on the value we want. If you’re another team in the heat of a race, you might spend prospect capital—which is theoretical anyway—to get an edge. If that market isn’t there now, wait. But don’t panic.

[LouisEly]

Heard Steve Stone comment on WSCR this morning. Belief is Lynn made adjustments a few years back and that's accounted for his improved results. A lot had to do with pitching metrics and all the new info available but his pitches now look the same longer than before.

Also looks like he's adopted the Bartolo Colon diet.