NFL HOF QBs

[FVBrewerFan]

Occurred to me watching the NFL this year, there could be at least 10 QBs playing right now who will be in the HOF. Doesn't it seem like yesterday we were all complaining how horrible the QB position was in the NFL?? Here's what I have so far:

 

Locks:

Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben

 

Likely:

Rivers- #5 all time passing yards, Ryan- #9 all time and will land higher

 

Maybe?:

Stafford- Thinking probably not, right?

 

Trending:

Mahomes, Wilson

 

Then you have the young guns, and I can see one of those guys emerging as a HOfer.

 

On a related note, I'm guessing Eli Manning is a lock as well?

[HiAndTight]

Occurred to me watching the NFL this year, there could be at least 10 QBs playing right now who will be in the HOF. Doesn't it seem like yesterday we were all complaining how horrible the QB position was in the NFL?? Here's what I have so far:

 

Locks:

Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben

 

Likely:

Rivers- #5 all time passing yards, Ryan- #9 all time and will land higher

 

Maybe?:

Stafford- Thinking probably not, right?

 

Trending:

Mahomes, Wilson

 

Then you have the young guns, and I can see one of those guys emerging as a HOfer.

 

On a related note, I'm guessing Eli Manning is a lock as well?

 

 

I think Stafford should be in. I think Wilson's also a lock already. I wouldn't put Eli in, but he's going to get in.

 

What makes it so much harder is how meaningless most of the stats mean. Take Trubisky and compare him to almost any of the greats in the '80s, 90's even the early 2000's and he looks like he's pretty good. That's a guy who's not good enough for a team and fan base that hasn't had a decent QB since Cecil Isabel was throwing to Don Hutson playing for them.

 

 

It was about 10 years ago when people were talking about how bad the QB position was IIRC...and these guys keep coming out and they just keep hitting. There have been so many guys I haven't thought would make it...the latest being Herbert, but Wentz, Mahomes...I thought Watson would be a solid starter, but not spectacular. Josh Allen. I thought Lamar would take 3-4 years to develop.

 

Mahomes...I thought there was a chance he'd develop, but that he'd be like Favre. Not the best of Favre and Rodgers the way he threw the ball up at Tech.

[pacopete4]

The rules changing have skewed this so much there are going to be too many present-day QBs with HOF numbers. The fact that Elway only there 300 TD's compared to some of these guys today tells you as much as you need to know there. And that wasn't THAT long ago.

[homer]

I think you need at least a Super Bowl appearance to get in. I don't know if that's really fair to a guy that never played with a defense, but seems to be a measuring stick that voters would use.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't see how Stafford gets in ahead of Eli? Eli has 2 SBs and top 10 all time passing yards. Stafford is 17th, and that will fall lower as the year go by.

 

Yea, no doubt it's a different game now and QB numbers are inflated. Still, I don't think it was 10 years ago there was no QB talent. I wanna say probably right when Mahomes came on the scene. Before him, there was really the big 4, Wilson, Ryan and a whole bunch of really mediocre or horrible QBs around the league.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Matt Stafford is kind of the Harold Baines of the NFL. Solid player? Yeah. Some very nice seasons? Yep. Numbers inflated simply due to playing a long time and avoiding injury. Probably.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't think Stafford nor Ryan get in. Numbers, sure, but that seems more part of the times than HOF talent. I'd say the same about Eli, but with 2 SB wins and a famous name, he is a lock.

[nate82]

Kind of off topic but if Marino played in the NFL today what would his stats look like now?

 

I think you could see him putting up 40-50 passing TD seasons regularly and putting up 4000+ yard passing seasons. Marino's best year in '84 maybe his career norms if he played now.

 

I think Marino if he played now and stayed healthy he could easily get to 70,000 - 75,000 passing yards and 500 TD's thrown in his career.

[FVBrewerFan]

Kind of off topic but if Marino played in the NFL today what would his stats look like now?

 

I think you could see him putting up 40-50 passing TD seasons regularly and putting up 4000+ yard passing seasons. Marino's best year in '84 maybe his career norms if he played now.

 

I think Marino if he played now and stayed healthy he could easily get to 70,000 - 75,000 passing yards and 500 TD's thrown in his career.

 

For sure, and Warren Moon would be an MVP candidate every year if he played now.

[MrTPlush]

Not saying you are wrong with your thinking because the NFL HOF tends to let in just about anyone with a decent and long career...but it is pretty pathetic the likes of Rivers/Ryan/Manning are even on the map when it comes to HOF chances.

[nate82]

Kind of off topic but if Marino played in the NFL today what would his stats look like now?

 

I think you could see him putting up 40-50 passing TD seasons regularly and putting up 4000+ yard passing seasons. Marino's best year in '84 maybe his career norms if he played now.

 

I think Marino if he played now and stayed healthy he could easily get to 70,000 - 75,000 passing yards and 500 TD's thrown in his career.

 

For sure, and Warren Moon would be an MVP candidate every year if he played now.

 

If Moon and Marino played in the NFL now it would be hard to choose between who would be the MVP every year it would basically be Moon or Marino as the MVP with everyone else not even having a chance.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Kind of off topic but if Marino played in the NFL today what would his stats look like now?

 

I think you could see him putting up 40-50 passing TD seasons regularly and putting up 4000+ yard passing seasons. Marino's best year in '84 maybe his career norms if he played now.

 

I think Marino if he played now and stayed healthy he could easily get to 70,000 - 75,000 passing yards and 500 TD's thrown in his career.

 

For sure, and Warren Moon would be an MVP candidate every year if he played now.

 

If Moon and Marino played in the NFL now it would be hard to choose between who would be the MVP every year it would basically be Moon or Marino as the MVP with everyone else not even having a chance.

 

I think a guy like Randall Cunningham would excel in today's NFL as well. He was basically a bigger, stronger Lamar Jackson with a better arm.

[PeaveyFury]

I've long struggled with Roethlisberger as a HOFer for a number of reasons, but he probably does get in eventually. Beyond that, has the league changed enough for recency bias to actually start hurting guys like Ryan, Stafford, Eli, etc.? Their numbers are good historically and in many cases will put them above HOFers on the leaders lists, but does anyone REALLY look at Phil Rivers and say 'Pro Football HOFer?'

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Eventually? Roethlisberger will be a 400+ TD pass, minimum 2-time SB Champion 3x AFC champ, on one of the most storied teams in the league. He will get in immediately.

 

Canton isn't Cooperstown. There just aren't a lot of hot NFL debates about borderline guys. They let almost every conceivable player in. The handful that aren't are mystifying because they seem to be guys who CLEARLY should be.

 

Eli Manning is a lock. Ryan and Stafford are Cecil Cooper guys in any other Hall of Fame, but the NFL has a precedent for letting those types in.

[Outlander]

The NFL has a weird Hall of Fame process so it sometimes takes some players longer than it should but I would guess most of the guys mentioned get in. Wilson is beyond trending, he is in the likely category and not too far off from lock. Stafford probably not but if he gets more guys like Rodgers endorsing him then it could happen.

[PeaveyFury]

Eventually? Roethlisberger will be a 400+ TD pass, minimum 2-time SB Champion 3x AFC champ, on one of the most storied teams in the league. He will get in immediately..

 

You don't think that his off-the-field issues will cause him problems in this regard?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Stats matter a lot less than notoriety if your stats aren't mind-blowing. Eli Manning is 5 points below Stafford in career passer rating. But he won the Super Bowl twice and beat the Patriots both times. He's at the center of two iconic Super Bowls.

 

Guys like Roethlisberger, who are IMO nowhere near the talent of someone like Rodgers, but better than Stafford/Manning AND have the titles, are locks.

 

Stafford, to me, is one of those guys who gets talked about as underrated so much that I think he's overrated. If he were that great of a QB, that team would have made the playoffs more than it has. I think he's an above average QB and that's about it.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Eventually? Roethlisberger will be a 400+ TD pass, minimum 2-time SB Champion 3x AFC champ, on one of the most storied teams in the league. He will get in immediately..

 

You don't think that his off-the-field issues will cause him problems in this regard?

 

I don't, no. I'm with you personally in that I never have felt he strikes fear into defenses. I've always thought of him as a modern day Aikman. Someone that is not all that impressive but is serviceable and played on very good teams. I don't believe he's ever been a serious MVP candidate, but he's been very steady. He's also a unique player in that he's sort of a link between two eras of the game/Steelers history as he's still around now but won a title with Jerome Bettis.

[HiAndTight]

Kind of off topic but if Marino played in the NFL today what would his stats look like now?

 

I think you could see him putting up 40-50 passing TD seasons regularly and putting up 4000+ yard passing seasons. Marino's best year in '84 maybe his career norms if he played now.

 

I think Marino if he played now and stayed healthy he could easily get to 70,000 - 75,000 passing yards and 500 TD's thrown in his career.

 

For sure, and Warren Moon would be an MVP candidate every year if he played now.

 

If Moon and Marino played in the NFL now it would be hard to choose between who would be the MVP every year it would basically be Moon or Marino as the MVP with everyone else not even having a chance.

 

 

Marino and Moon were both great...but I don't think they have anything on Mahomes and or Rodgers and in a given year Wilson or Watson.

 

The rules have changed but the QB's have also changed. Marino was a statue. Moon was in that run and shoot offense that inflated his stats relative to his peers.

 

The guy from the past who I think would thrive the most in this era would be Steve Young. He's basically Taysom Hill with Rodgers accuracy.

[nodakfan17]

This is such a great topic. I could debate at length. Instead, some quick hitters:

 

- Russell Wilson could have a career ending injury next week and he would still be a HOFer. He’s 94-45-1 (0.675) and has started every game of his 9 year career (which also includes a Super Bowl win).

 

- Matthew Stafford is a very good QB stuck on a bad team. He’s 74-86-1 (0.473) all-time. Without a Super Bowl win or a remarkable run of success to end his career, he belongs in the ‘Hall of Very Good.’

 

- Kurt Warner has won fewer games than Stafford (67-49). Nice guy. Good story. But the bar was lowered when he was enshrined. I know he got a late start, but there was a 5-year stretch in the middle of his career where he was not a primary starter.

[homer]

I'd be curious to know how defenses have changed over the last 30 years. I don't know this for a fact but I'm guessing they are way faster with a lot more pressure schemes than they used to have. Pocket only passers have sort of gone out of style the last 10 years. Or maybe that's just because athletes are allowed to play QB in high school/college more than they used to? I'm not sure.

[nate82]

Brady, Peyton, Rivers, and Brees are all pocket passers. I would even put Rodgers at his age right now as a pocket QB.

 

Pocket QB's can and are still successful in the NFL we just see more Cunningham's and Moon's now more so than in previous decades.

[HiAndTight]

Eventually? Roethlisberger will be a 400+ TD pass, minimum 2-time SB Champion 3x AFC champ, on one of the most storied teams in the league. He will get in immediately.

 

Canton isn't Cooperstown. There just aren't a lot of hot NFL debates about borderline guys. They let almost every conceivable player in. The handful that aren't are mystifying because they seem to be guys who CLEARLY should be.

 

Eli Manning is a lock. Ryan and Stafford are Cecil Cooper guys in any other Hall of Fame, but the NFL has a precedent for letting those types in.

 

 

Big Ben's a lock as well. I forgot about him. I don't know if Matt Ryan gets in, but that's as much because he's declining whereas I still think Stafford CAN be elite.

 

But QB's are disproportionately valued in the NFL. Out of the top 100, 15 of the best players in the NFL are not QB's...Kirk Cousins is not one of the 50 best players in the NFL, but he's around there in the NFL top 100 this year. So aside from Big Ben being a lock due to the two Super Bowls and the numbers, given how highly valued QB's are, how do you leave Stafford out? I guess if his career were to end abruptly, maybe not, but he's only 32 and he's been a pretty good QB on a pretty awful team for a while now.

 

Matt Ryan was probably that a 2nd half meltdown from being close to a SB lock at this point as well. An MVP and a SB win gets most guys in.

[pacopete4]

Eventually? Roethlisberger will be a 400+ TD pass, minimum 2-time SB Champion 3x AFC champ, on one of the most storied teams in the league. He will get in immediately..

 

You don't think that his off-the-field issues will cause him problems in this regard?

 

I know it was posed to me but I help but stop and think, does the majority of people even know he had any off-field issues in his past? Other than a random tweet I run across with him, I don't know if I ever even see it mentioned.

[HiAndTight]

Brady, Peyton, Rivers, and Brees are all pocket passers. I would even put Rodgers at his age right now as a pocket QB.

 

Pocket QB's can and are still successful in the NFL we just see more Cunningham's and Moon's now more so than in previous decades.

 

 

Well I'd disagree with regard to Rodgers, but they literally changed the rules for that generation of QB and those types of QB's aren't coming out today. And if they did, would the league wait while Peyton Manning struggled for several years? Manning threw 26 TD's and 23 picks his 4th year and 27 and 19 his 5th year. QB's are coming in and thriving almost immediately right now. You just had two guys win MVP's in their 2nd season, Kyler Murray looks like a stud, Josh Allen the same.

 

The youngest player you named was 37 years old and I think most people would describe him as a mobile QB. The other are in their 40's, one's retired. Rivers isnt' really thriving and hasn't for a while, but he's put up the career stats.

 

Pocket passers CAN obviously still have success, but they take a little longer to have an impact on the game and those guys aren't given the same rope they once were.