Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]

[PeaveyFury]

Are we truly making a determination based on 4.1 IP? This used to be the haven of 'small sample size'.... seems far more reasonable to wait and see if Corey makes it through the next few months effective and healthy before we make a determination.

[clancyphile]

 

It’s head-scratching that they would prioritize a young starter who flashed TOR stuff at $3m+ per year pre-COVID vs a relief pitcher who had performed poorly the previous year with the hopes of returning to (his high level) form at $5m+ after losing a year of revenue?

 

I assume you mean Knebel’s “poor performance” was 2018 where he had a FIP of 3.05, WHIP of 1.08 and had a K/9 rate of 14.3. Unless you’re knocking his 2020 numbers for literally rehabbing from TJ surgery at the major league level.

 

Also worth mentioning, Jimmy Nelson blew out his shoulder in two places during his breakout year. His numbers before 2017 were pedestrian: FIP of 4.44 and WHIP of 1.39. Despite his suffering an unprecedented shoulder injury, they threw 7.5 million dollars away retaining his rights and got bupkis. That’s the head scratcher as referenced above

 

Just cutting Nelson after that injury would not have looked good, either to potential FAs or to fans. Standing by Nelson in 2018-2019 was the right move. The big issue is the roster management. They needed to option him in 2019, and save that service time. Send him to Appleton/San Antonio/Biloxi to get into shape.

 

As for Knebel, I think it was a financial move - with some prospects coming up, he probably was a risk. That said, I probably would have tried to work out an extension to lock him in, and push it one more year. But Crawford's performance will tell the tale.

[SeaBass]

How has it already been determined they got it wrong with Jimmy Nelson? He's 3.1 innings into his first big league season since leaving Milwaukee. Is it simply that he's made the Dodgers 26 man roster? He also seems to be a relief pitcher now, he's not really in the mix to be a starter. I don't get it.

 

I hope he succeeds but I'm not going to hold that against the Brewers 2 years and 3.1 total innings later. The Dodgers are also paying him less than $1 million per season, Jimmy's last contract with the Brewers was $3.7 million which is why he was non-tendered. Seems like it was a hard but good decision to me. It's just one of those things. Keeping the tally seems really miserly and unreasonable to me.

 

Knebel, yeah, I'd like to have him. I felt that way before the Brewers decided to part ways with him. The fact it ended in a trade means nothing, they were letting him go. I think he could have helped this team, I wasn't as worried about his injury. I feel it a little more keenly now as I think we have some shaky guys in our bullpen.

 

However, Boxberger so far looks like he's not a bad choice for the 7th inning role. If he continues pitching well the Brewers are paying him 1/10th the salary Knebel is making. I'd still rather have him than not but I can see where management feels like it was a decision worth making.

 

I wonder if Jeffress is really such a bad option now out in free agency. Not sure what issue it is that "ruined his career" but I'd be in favor of kicking the tires on him if the price is right.

[pacopete4]

I think because things have been pretty good around the organization for a bit now, we look for any instance to say look, they messed up. Even though we continue to win and compete in our division, we all know we want a World Series, and even that probably wouldn't be enough for a lot of fans. Stearns and co. have done an incredible job building rosters since taking over, minus last year's strange circumstance year. Do I think we could've taken a shot on Knebel for $5M? Yeah, I do. Am I looking to rake Steans and co. over the coals because we didn't? Nope. Hindsight will always be 20/20 and as long as the Brewers keep putting out talented rosters for me to enjoy, I'm not going to fret over some of these things as much.

[BallFour]

As much as I love Knebel and was disappointed he was essentially traded for nothing I have to say 5 Million at that time was a big deal. My speculation is the Brewers probably were very reluctant to pay that because they couldn't even budget what their revenue would be like in 2021. Notice how all their moves started in February. Also notice how it was reported they were in on Trevor Rosenthal before they signed Jackie Bradley. I really think they would have kept Knebel in a normal offseason just the timing could not have been worse.

[adambr2]

How has it already been determined they got it wrong with Jimmy Nelson? He's 3.1 innings into his first big league season since leaving Milwaukee. Is it simply that he's made the Dodgers 26 man roster? He also seems to be a relief pitcher now, he's not really in the mix to be a starter. I don't get it.

 

I hope he succeeds but I'm not going to hold that against the Brewers 2 years and 3.1 total innings later. The Dodgers are also paying him less than $1 million per season, Jimmy's last contract with the Brewers was $3.7 million which is why he was non-tendered. Seems like it was a hard but good decision to me. It's just one of those things. Keeping the tally seems really miserly and unreasonable to me.

 

Knebel, yeah, I'd like to have him. I felt that way before the Brewers decided to part ways with him. The fact it ended in a trade means nothing, they were letting him go. I think he could have helped this team, I wasn't as worried about his injury. I feel it a little more keenly now as I think we have some shaky guys in our bullpen.

 

However, Boxberger so far looks like he's not a bad choice for the 7th inning role. If he continues pitching well the Brewers are paying him 1/10th the salary Knebel is making. I'd still rather have him than not but I can see where management feels like it was a decision worth making.

 

I wonder if Jeffress is really such a bad option now out in free agency. Not sure what issue it is that "ruined his career" but I'd be in favor of kicking the tires on him if the price is right.

 

The "getting it wrong" part on Nelson was continuing to pay him to keep him for 2 years and getting nothing out of it. Not the part where they let him walk.

[jjfanec]

Does the fact that Crawford was the best we could get for Knebel point t the fact that most teams around the league also didnt want to take a 5 million dollar risk on him? Not sure what other teams showed interested but it didnt seem like a ton. And you had teams like the Twins and others that really needed bullpen help

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Does the fact that Crawford was the best we could get for Knebel point t the fact that most teams around the league also didnt want to take a 5 million dollar risk on him? Not sure what other teams showed interested but it didnt seem like a ton. And you had teams like the Twins and others that really needed bullpen help

 

Exactly. By all accounts, the Brewers were minutes away from non-tendering Knebel, which means that his value in relation to his projected salary was next to nothing across MLB. The Dodgers must have figured they'd be interested in him as a free agent, so rather than take the chance of having to compete on the open market for him, they threw the Brewers a low-tier (but interesting) prospect for him. I think that's all this is.

[Jopal78]

 

Exactly. By all accounts, the Brewers were minutes away from non-tendering Knebel, which means that his value in relation to his projected salary was next to nothing across MLB. The Dodgers must have figured they'd be interested in him as a free agent, so rather than take the chance of having to compete on the open market for him, they threw the Brewers a low-tier (but interesting) prospect for him. I think that's all this is.

 

Maybe teams were scared about the 2021 season happening at the time of his departure. However, when the dust cleared on free agency Jake McGee got 4.8 million dollars. Alex Colome got 6.75 from the Twins, and Joakim Soria got 4.5. Certainly Knebel’s 5 million dollar salary is not out of line with comparable players and he’s certainly not overpriced.

 

If the Brewers are dropping quality players in the 2020s because they’re concerned about how the player is going to come back from TJ surgery, I I think that’s ripe for criticism; and certainly cuts against their narrative of being a forward thinking club trying to find under appreciated value to compete against the well moneyed clubs.

[sveumrules]

 

Exactly. By all accounts, the Brewers were minutes away from non-tendering Knebel, which means that his value in relation to his projected salary was next to nothing across MLB. The Dodgers must have figured they'd be interested in him as a free agent, so rather than take the chance of having to compete on the open market for him, they threw the Brewers a low-tier (but interesting) prospect for him. I think that's all this is.

 

Maybe teams were scared about the 2021 season happening at the time of his departure. However, when the dust cleared on free agency Jake McGee got 4.8 million dollars. Alex Colome got 6.75 from the Twins, and Joakim Soria got 4.5. Certainly Knebel’s 5 million dollar salary is not out of line with comparable players and he’s certainly not overpriced.

 

If the Brewers are dropping quality players in the 2020s because they’re concerned about how the player is going to come back from TJ surgery, I I think that’s ripe for criticism; and certainly cuts against their narrative of being a forward thinking club trying to find under appreciated value to compete against the well moneyed clubs.

 

Except it's not a narrative.

 

Entering 2021, the Brewers have won the 11th most games in MLB under Stearns & company while spending the 26th most on payroll.

 

Of the 25 teams that have spent more than them, only 8 have won more games.

 

You think 5 million for a player coming off TJ was an under appreciated value, the Brewers front office thought that money could be better spent elsewhere as the bullpen was a relative strength.

 

One hundred fifty games from now there is a chance you both were right.

[SeaBass]

The "getting it wrong" part on Nelson was continuing to pay him to keep him for 2 years and getting nothing out of it. Not the part where they let him walk.

That makes so much more sense, thank you for clarifying. I guess I'm just used to seeing the lamenting of guys we let go.

[PeaveyFury]

Fans are more focused on the need to 'win' trades/transactions than the front office probably is, especially in the short term.

[pacopete4]

Short term for sure. I hardly doubt that Stearns is checking in on guys he traded away or let go regularly. I'm sure at some point they reflect back on things but we fans have nothing else to do I guess so we dwell over box scores and stats daily.

[adambr2]

The "getting it wrong" part on Nelson was continuing to pay him to keep him for 2 years and getting nothing out of it. Not the part where they let him walk.

That makes so much more sense, thank you for clarifying. I guess I'm just used to seeing the lamenting of guys we let go.

 

No problem!

 

Unfortunate about Jimmy either way. What could have been, we'll never know. I used to be a pitcher batting NL guy, but Jimmy was the last straw for me.

[adambr2]

I think Trent Grisham is the one Stearns is really going to lament getting away.

 

I'm sure it does bother these guys,. They want to be the best too. When I make a mistake at my job it bothers me too.

 

But yes, short-term nothing you can do but move forward. All part of being a professional.

[monty57]

Fans are more focused on the need to 'win' trades/transactions than the front office probably is, especially in the short term.

 

Sometimes, they seem more interested in winning trades in the short-term than they are in winning games in the long-term.

 

Any move has "ripple effects." In this case alone, we didn't just get Crawford, we also got the money we saved, which was used to help out in signing other guys. Heck, we got Shaw, Anderson and McKinney combined for less than $5M.

 

At the end of the day, it's not one move, but a combination of all the moves made that build your franchise. We'll see how the season turns out, but overall I'm enjoying watching the team Stearns put together for this season.

[BallFour]

 

Maybe teams were scared about the 2021 season happening at the time of his departure. However, when the dust cleared on free agency Jake McGee got 4.8 million dollars. Alex Colome got 6.75 from the Twins, and Joakim Soria got 4.5. Certainly Knebel’s 5 million dollar salary is not out of line with comparable players and he’s certainly not overpriced.

 

If the Brewers are dropping quality players in the 2020s because they’re concerned about how the player is going to come back from TJ surgery, I I think that’s ripe for criticism; and certainly cuts against their narrative of being a forward thinking club trying to find under appreciated value to compete against the well moneyed clubs.

 

All three of those guys were considerably better than Knebel the last two years, that is the reality of the situation. I think you just proved that Knebel was not worth $5 Million for any team that has finite resources, which is what the vast vast majority of the MLB during this pandemic ridden offseason? Credit the Dodgers who have infinite resources for taking advantage of the situation.

 

I again argue you would not see this type of almost non-tender in any other off-season besides this one.

[HiAndTight]

Does the fact that Crawford was the best we could get for Knebel point t the fact that most teams around the league also didnt want to take a 5 million dollar risk on him? Not sure what other teams showed interested but it didnt seem like a ton. And you had teams like the Twins and others that really needed bullpen help

 

 

It seems kinda beside the point. In a year when there were not minor league games and Knebel threw very few innings and didn't even come back until the end of the year, I don't really expect other teams to have the same type of insight into our players as our front office does, particularly with regard to how a player is coming back from an injury.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just unlucky timing for Kneble. You had a deadline to tender him or not. Heres what was happening at that time. Covid Vaccines werent rolling out. Just a rumor to be coming by some sources. Fans weren't known to be allowed in the stands. Multiple teams made some moves selling off assets during this time.

Flash forward to late January, you've got vaccines rolling out. NFL has allowed a percentage of fans in the stands.

So when Wong and JBJ are added it's made with knowledge that there will be tickets sold boosting revenue to pay those salaries. If it were as easy as saying "take back" come February and allowed to take Kneble back, Stearns and co probably would. The outlook of things start of Dec and financials of 2020 being tallied vs the outlook of things at the beginning of Feb is drastically different.

 

Like Jimmy Nelson, Brewers were dealt a bad hand. Also keeping Nelson. You had to give him every opportunity to rebound. Imagine the talk if the team released him and he proceeded to pitch 2019 looking lime a ToR pitcher again? I remember vividly videos of him pitching the few times he was on the mound during rehab making batters look ridiculous, and he must still do that today having 6ks on the 10outs hes recorded. He just cant replicate that as often as needed to return to an elite looking star on the rise.

[MrTPlush]

Well yah....fans are probably worried about the short term success of a trade when it involved a former elite pitcher that is now pitching like an elite pitcher again. We are competing now, obviously people will care about short term performances.

 

It is what it is. These non tender decisions get tougher the longer we compete and the bigger payroll crunch we find ourselves in. We simply cannot keep every guy who 'may' turn it around.

[HiAndTight]

Well yah....fans are probably worried about the short term success of a trade when it involved a former elite pitcher that is now pitching like an elite pitcher again. We are competing now, obviously people will care about short term performances.

 

It is what it is. These non tender decisions get tougher the longer we compete and the bigger payroll crunch we find ourselves in. We simply cannot keep every guy who 'may' turn it around.

 

 

Just to reiterate...I understand letting Knebel go from a financial perspective. It did not feel like things would be getting back to normal as quickly as they seem to be at the time and Mark A does not have the resources to go into the red year after year(nor do I imagine do the other owners).

 

I just think you can justify the move on that basis alone and without trying to argue that Knebel was this huge risk. We have a pretty good idea what a pitcher coming back from TJ can do at this point, or using his 2020 numbers as a justification. That's all. You can justify the decision and point out that Knebel was a pretty good bet to get his stuff back. It doesn't HAVE to be one or the other.

[Outlander]

Knebel had to leave after five pitches last night. Had not pitched in 6 days. Knebel looked uncomfortable for Hosmer's entire at bat and was noticeably grimacing after his last pitch.

[Lathund]

It looked like it was elbow related, but saying today it's a tricep injury. Tricep tears can take a lot of time too, but at least it seems like it's not another UCL injury.

[sveumrules]

Hopefully Corey can come back strong with some rest & rehab.

 

If he doesn't the Dodgers might only win 115 games this year.

 

Easier to take a 5 million gamble with a 250 million payroll than a with 100 million payroll.

[PeaveyFury]

Are we truly making a determination based on 4.1 IP? This used to be the haven of 'small sample size'.... seems far more reasonable to wait and see if Corey makes it through the next few months effective and healthy before we make a determination.

 

Reposting for effect. I wish Corey the best, but a nice reminder that 4 innings means absolutely nothing vs. the big picture.