Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]

[HiAndTight]

Keep in mind Knebel was sent to the minors at one point for poor performance. The risk wasn't just how he would come back from surgery but which Knebel was coming back.

 

 

He was sent down for a couple weeks and then came pack and was dominant for the Brewers the year they took the Dodgers 7 games in the NLCS. He was one of the key players in that run. If they were worried that the 2018 Knebel was coming back, that would seem like more a check in his column, not against him.

 

They didn't want to commit 5 million dollars to another BP arm when they had Hader, Williams and a number of other power arms out there. They got something rather than nothing for him and I'm guessing they're not shocked that his stuff has come all the way back....and they probably knew there was a good chance he'd be a dominant BP arm.

[RollieTime]

He has pitched 3.1 innings this season. The hot takes on this board the first week to ten days this season have been some of the hottest I’ve seen on here. Give it some time to see how it plays out. Crawford has been very good throughout his minor league career. He could reasonably be the better player in the deal. Let’s give it a little more time than 3 innings to draw a conclusion on this.

 

It's not really about the results, it's more than that the stuff has been back to where it was pre-2019. If he were throwing 91-92 and just getting lucky, I'd agree with you. But it looks like he's been back.

 

Crawford is really nothing more than an organizational piece and probably more likely than not to never see any significant innings at the MLB level. I would not call the possibility of him being the better player in this deal a very reasonable take.

 

I guess more valuable is more what I was meaning. Knebel could be the better player for the one year left on his deal, but if Crawford is good enough to be a number 5 starting pitcher for us throwing a 4.5 ERA while making the minimum would be extremely valuable. Plus it’s 6 years of control. We shall see. He could be starting the season in AAA and making appearances for us the second half of the season.

[TURBO]

Stop making excuses, this might end up being a really stupid move, and at this time, it sure looks like it.

[jjfanec]

There was always a chance Knebel was going to bounce back. There was almost no chance the Brewers were going to pay 5 million to a 7th inning guy who had struggled the previous year. The Dodgers have the payroll to take the gamble. You can blame the Brewers if you want. You can blame the imbalanced team payrolls in MLB. You can wait to see if Knebel is still rolling in July. You can wait to see Crawford actually pitch.

[Thurston Fluff]

Stop making excuses, this might end up being a really stupid move, and at this time, it sure looks like it.

 

It doesn't look like anything at this time. Knebel could become an all star this year and we still won't know if it was a good or bad deal. Whatever Knebel is this season it's only part of the equation. It will take at least a year or two to see what we have in Crawford. Even then given the money we would have spent on Knebel was spent in other areas that may have been more of a need given the depth of our pitching. So we can't even evaluate the success measuring Crawford and Knebel in a vacuum.

[adambr2]

People keep talking about Crawford like he is some kind of interesting prospect. We are talking about a 24 year old soft tossing lefty who has logged 30 innings above High A. He was not even in the top 50 of the Dodgers' prospects and was not in our top 30.

 

The odds of him ever being any kind of regular contributor at the big league level are miniscule. It's not impossible, but people are drastically overestimating the range of likely outcomes. Brent Suter is the exception, not the rule.

 

He was acquired because we were going to DFA Knebel anyway and so it was maybe a flyer that we liked and that was better than getting nothing. Nothing more. If we hadn't traded Corey Knebel for him, Leo Crawford would not even be on the radar of any of us except the real hardcore prospect followers. Not every piece that we trade for is someone we really need to keep an eye on.

[Jopal78]

Stop making excuses, this might end up being a really stupid move, and at this time, it sure looks like it.

 

It doesn't look like anything at this time. Knebel could become an all star this year and we still won't know if it was a good or bad deal. Whatever Knebel is this season it's only part of the equation. It will take at least a year or two to see what we have in Crawford. Even then given the money we would have spent on Knebel was spent in other areas that may have been more of a need given the depth of our pitching. So we can't even evaluate the success measuring Crawford and Knebel in a vacuum.

 

Knebel has a fastball in the mid to upper 90s. Even if his everything else fails him on the mound he still has a decent chance of throwing his swifty by a major league hitters.

 

To add to the previous post, Leo Crawford’s top velocity is reportedly in the 88-90 mph range. For him to have a chance at getting outs in the major leagues he is going to have to have both his deception and the ability to hit spots working. That’s why he’s a PTBNL in the first place.

[clancyphile]

Knebel's injury history, the way the 2020 season went, and the realities of the arbitration system probably did reduce what Knebel would bring in return.

 

That being said, if Crawford turns out like Brent Suter, then the Brewers will have made a very good move on their end.

[HiAndTight]

There was always a chance Knebel was going to bounce back. There was almost no chance the Brewers were going to pay 5 million to a 7th inning guy who had struggled the previous year. The Dodgers have the payroll to take the gamble. You can blame the Brewers if you want. You can blame the imbalanced team payrolls in MLB. You can wait to see if Knebel is still rolling in July. You can wait to see Crawford actually pitch.

 

 

A "7th inning guy who struggled the previous year?"

 

That's really an accurate depiction of Knebel to you? Is that really how anyone would describe Corey Knebel?

[sveumrules]

There was always a chance Knebel was going to bounce back. There was almost no chance the Brewers were going to pay 5 million to a 7th inning guy who had struggled the previous year. The Dodgers have the payroll to take the gamble. You can blame the Brewers if you want. You can blame the imbalanced team payrolls in MLB. You can wait to see if Knebel is still rolling in July. You can wait to see Crawford actually pitch.

 

A "7th inning guy who struggled the previous year?"

 

That's really an accurate depiction of Knebel to you? Is that really how anyone would describe Corey Knebel?

 

Knebel would have lined up as our 7th inning guy & he pitched to a 5.78 xFIP over 13 innings in 2020. It's an accurate description.

 

Of course the upside is there to return to circa 2017-18 form, but the Dodgers were just better positioned financially to accept the downside risk as the Brewers were working with about 150 million less in payroll & needed that five million elsewhere.

 

I hope Corey has a great 2021 & is able to cash in as a free agent.

 

I hope the players the Brewers spent that money on instead help lead them to the postseason & maybe even beyond.

 

I hope Leo Crawford gets some outs for the Brewers at some point.

 

Some of these hopes might be fulfilled & some may not...such is life. I try not to let it get to me.

[jjfanec]

There was always a chance Knebel was going to bounce back. There was almost no chance the Brewers were going to pay 5 million to a 7th inning guy who had struggled the previous year. The Dodgers have the payroll to take the gamble. You can blame the Brewers if you want. You can blame the imbalanced team payrolls in MLB. You can wait to see if Knebel is still rolling in July. You can wait to see Crawford actually pitch.

 

 

A "7th inning guy who struggled the previous year?"

 

That's really an accurate depiction of Knebel to you? Is that really how anyone would describe Corey Knebel?

 

Umm considering Knebel did struggle last year and would have been behind both Williams and Harder in the bullpen pecking order yes I stand by that comment. Not sure what else he would have been. Sure he could have gotten other late inning opportunities if harder and williams needed rest but with what he did last year and with what we had coming back he wasn't one of our top 2 options and he was going to cost too much

[adambr2]

If Knebel returns to the form he was with us pre-TJ, he's well worth the 5+ million. Whatever inning he would have pitched for us is immaterial.

[jjfanec]

If Knebel returns to the form he was with us pre-TJ, he's well worth the 5+ million. Whatever inning he would have pitched is immaterial.

 

Not a single person here is arguing that from what I can tell. However there were zero guarantees of that and the early returns had not been good. Relievers are often hard to predict anyway so add in injury, struggles after return's and cost the Brewers made a decision almost every small market team would make. I love Knebel. Wish he was still a Brewer but I completely understand why we traded him.

[TigerUppercut]

There was always a chance Knebel was going to bounce back. There was almost no chance the Brewers were going to pay 5 million to a 7th inning guy who had struggled the previous year. The Dodgers have the payroll to take the gamble. You can blame the Brewers if you want. You can blame the imbalanced team payrolls in MLB. You can wait to see if Knebel is still rolling in July. You can wait to see Crawford actually pitch.

 

 

A "7th inning guy who struggled the previous year?"

 

That's really an accurate depiction of Knebel to you? Is that really how anyone would describe Corey Knebel?

 

I think it would be fascinating based on the results in 2019 and 2020 to hear your explanation as to why Knebel would have been thought of as anything but a 7th inning guy at the VERY best on this Brewer team prior to the season. That alone could lead to a 20 page thread.

[adambr2]

If Knebel returns to the form he was with us pre-TJ, he's well worth the 5+ million. Whatever inning he would have pitched is immaterial.

 

Not a single person here is arguing that from what I can tell. However there were zero guarantees of that and the early returns had not been good. Relievers are often hard to predict anyway so add in injury, struggles after return's and cost the Brewers made a decision almost every small market team would make. I love Knebel. Wish he was still a Brewer but I completely understand why we traded him.

 

I understand it, but it still looks like it's going to be a bad move.

 

I think the head-scratching part about it is that they went the other direction with Nelson and waited 2 years for a much more serious injury.

 

I understand they can't predict the future, but it looks like they blew the evaluation in both cases right now.

[adambr2]

Personally I'm not going to get hung up on the 7th inning thing. Just a number. Doesn't really matter what inning he would have thrown. Just seems like a red herring and a technicality which only applies because we also have Hader and Devin.

[areacodes]

If Knebel returns to the form he was with us pre-TJ, he's well worth the 5+ million. Whatever inning he would have pitched is immaterial.

 

Not a single person here is arguing that from what I can tell. However there were zero guarantees of that and the early returns had not been good. Relievers are often hard to predict anyway so add in injury, struggles after return's and cost the Brewers made a decision almost every small market team would make. I love Knebel. Wish he was still a Brewer but I completely understand why we traded him.

 

I understand it, but it still looks like it's going to be a bad move.

 

I think the head-scratching part about it is that they went the other direction with Nelson and waited 2 years for a much more serious injury.

 

I understand they can't predict the future, but it looks like they blew the evaluation in both cases right now.

 

It’s head-scratching that they would prioritize a young starter who flashed TOR stuff at $3m+ per year pre-COVID vs a relief pitcher who had performed poorly the previous year with the hopes of returning to (his high level) form at $5m+ after losing a year of revenue?

[Jopal78]

 

It’s head-scratching that they would prioritize a young starter who flashed TOR stuff at $3m+ per year pre-COVID vs a relief pitcher who had performed poorly the previous year with the hopes of returning to (his high level) form at $5m+ after losing a year of revenue?

 

I assume you mean Knebel’s “poor performance” was 2018 where he had a FIP of 3.05, WHIP of 1.08 and had a K/9 rate of 14.3. Unless you’re knocking his 2020 numbers for literally rehabbing from TJ surgery at the major league level.

 

Also worth mentioning, Jimmy Nelson blew out his shoulder in two places during his breakout year. His numbers before 2017 were pedestrian: FIP of 4.44 and WHIP of 1.39. Despite his suffering an unprecedented shoulder injury, they threw 7.5 million dollars away retaining his rights and got bupkis. That’s the head scratcher as referenced above

[areacodes]

 

It’s head-scratching that they would prioritize a young starter who flashed TOR stuff at $3m+ per year pre-COVID vs a relief pitcher who had performed poorly the previous year with the hopes of returning to (his high level) form at $5m+ after losing a year of revenue?

 

I assume you mean Knebel’s “poor performance” was 2018 where he had a FIP of 3.05, WHIP of 1.08 and had a K/9 rate of 14.3. Unless you’re knocking his 2020 numbers for literally rehabbing from TJ surgery at the major league level.

 

Also worth mentioning, Jimmy Nelson blew out his shoulder in two places during his breakout year. His numbers before 2017 were pedestrian: FIP of 4.44 and WHIP of 1.39. Despite his suffering an unprecedented shoulder injury, they threw 7.5 million dollars away retaining his rights and got bupkis. That’s the head scratcher as referenced above

 

No, I was talking about his 2020 numbers - yes there is additional context to it with regards to his injury but there is no denying he had a poor year. I’ll still disagree that it was head-scratching for the Brewers to invest the money in Jimmy Nelson over two years pre-COVID vs investing the money in Knebel - especially factoring losing a years worth of revenue.

 

They saw TOR potential with Nelson vs high end reliever - one is easier to potentially replace than the other.

 

There is no denying that I’d rather have Knebel on the roster than not but he isn’t without his risks. Jumping on Stearns that this was a huge mistake after 3.1 innings seems premature and using the money paid to Jimmy Nelson over two years, in a completely different financial environment, as part of that is a stretch to me.

[adambr2]

 

It’s head-scratching that they would prioritize a young starter who flashed TOR stuff at $3m+ per year pre-COVID vs a relief pitcher who had performed poorly the previous year with the hopes of returning to (his high level) form at $5m+ after losing a year of revenue?

 

I assume you mean Knebel’s “poor performance” was 2018 where he had a FIP of 3.05, WHIP of 1.08 and had a K/9 rate of 14.3. Unless you’re knocking his 2020 numbers for literally rehabbing from TJ surgery at the major league level.

 

Also worth mentioning, Jimmy Nelson blew out his shoulder in two places during his breakout year. His numbers before 2017 were pedestrian: FIP of 4.44 and WHIP of 1.39. Despite his suffering an unprecedented shoulder injury, they threw 7.5 million dollars away retaining his rights and got bupkis. That’s the head scratcher as referenced above

 

No, I was talking about his 2020 numbers - yes there is additional context to it with regards to his injury but there is no denying he had a poor year. I’ll still disagree that it was head-scratching for the Brewers to invest the money in Jimmy Nelson over two years pre-COVID vs investing the money in Knebel - especially factoring losing a years worth of revenue.

 

They saw TOR potential with Nelson vs high end reliever - one is easier to potentially replace than the other.

 

There is no denying that I’d rather have Knebel on the roster than not but he isn’t without his risks. Jumping on Stearns that this was a huge mistake after 3.1 innings seems premature and using the money paid to Jimmy Nelson over two years, in a completely different financial environment, as part of that is a stretch to me.

 

But it was a mistake. You can rationalize it every which way but the fact of the matter is they got it wrong with Jimmy and it looks like they're going to get it wrong again with Corey.

 

The TOR potential was out the window when the shoulder injury occurred. I guess if you were talking about Jacob DeGrom I'd be willing to see if a huge comeback occurred, but we're overrating pre-injury Jimmy a bit. His TOR track record wasn't all that established and he was still a bit of an unknown.

 

Also the injuries are apples to oranges, this was a serious shoulder injury and always a much longer shot to come back from than TJ. I don't expect the consultations between our medical staff and our FO to result in crystal ball like results but getting it wrong repeatedly on post-injury projections hurts us for sure.

 

The Jimmy Nelson situation was really handled poorly. I guess the silver lining is I'm glad Jimmy still made some money but it was basically charity on our part. There was a time in 2019 when Jimmy could still be optioned to the minors. Rather than see what we had with him in the minors first we called him up long enough for his service time to hit 5 years, then not only were we stuck with a really unproductive player that we already had dead money sunk into, he could no longer be optioned.

[HiAndTight]

There was always a chance Knebel was going to bounce back. There was almost no chance the Brewers were going to pay 5 million to a 7th inning guy who had struggled the previous year. The Dodgers have the payroll to take the gamble. You can blame the Brewers if you want. You can blame the imbalanced team payrolls in MLB. You can wait to see if Knebel is still rolling in July. You can wait to see Crawford actually pitch.

 

A "7th inning guy who struggled the previous year?"

 

That's really an accurate depiction of Knebel to you? Is that really how anyone would describe Corey Knebel?

 

Knebel would have lined up as our 7th inning guy & he pitched to a 5.78 xFIP over 13 innings in 2020. It's an accurate description.

 

Of course the upside is there to return to circa 2017-18 form, but the Dodgers were just better positioned financially to accept the downside risk as the Brewers were working with about 150 million less in payroll & needed that five million elsewhere.

 

I hope Corey has a great 2021 & is able to cash in as a free agent.

 

I hope the players the Brewers spent that money on instead help lead them to the postseason & maybe even beyond.

 

I hope Leo Crawford gets some outs for the Brewers at some point.

 

Some of these hopes might be fulfilled & some may not...such is life. I try not to let it get to me.

 

 

It's an incredibly disengenious description. He didn't just say the Brewers 7th inning guy, he said, "a 7th inning" guy in what seems to be an attempt to minimize Knebel as a whole, and the year he struggled he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. So both parts are really intentionally, again, misleading. He had no chance to throw live innings anywhere but the big leagues. And by the end of the year, his stuff was coming back.

 

I understand why they moved on from him, especially after Covid, I just think the way people are trying to bend over backward to argue that Knebel himself was just a guy who wasn't really that good anyway, so he wasn't worth the money...it's kinda silly.

 

Just as silly as saying, "well, we don't know what Crawford will be, maybe he'll end up being more valuable." It was a financial move, that's it. It was a pretty good bet Knebel would throw well this year and the Brewers had a deep pen.

[HiAndTight]

There was always a chance Knebel was going to bounce back. There was almost no chance the Brewers were going to pay 5 million to a 7th inning guy who had struggled the previous year. The Dodgers have the payroll to take the gamble. You can blame the Brewers if you want. You can blame the imbalanced team payrolls in MLB. You can wait to see if Knebel is still rolling in July. You can wait to see Crawford actually pitch.

 

 

A "7th inning guy who struggled the previous year?"

 

That's really an accurate depiction of Knebel to you? Is that really how anyone would describe Corey Knebel?

 

Umm considering Knebel did struggle last year and would have been behind both Williams and Harder in the bullpen pecking order yes I stand by that comment. Not sure what else he would have been. Sure he could have gotten other late inning opportunities if harder and williams needed rest but with what he did last year and with what we had coming back he wasn't one of our top 2 options and he was going to cost too much

 

 

Well he's been closing for one of the most talented teams in baseball history, so seems as though he's a big more than just some 7th inning guy.

 

Is Walker Buehler just some "middle of the rotation pitcher" because he happened to be behind Kershaw and Bauer in the Dodgers rotation? Or would that be just a little bit mis-leading to frame him as such?

[adambr2]

 

Just as silly as saying, "well, we don't know what Crawford will be, maybe he'll end up being more valuable." It was a financial move, that's it.

 

THANK you. Crawford is a warm body. That's it. If he wasn't the guy we got for Knebel no one would even know of him. Pick out some random name from AA and that individual probably has the same chance of competing in Milwaukee someday as Crawford does.

[jjfanec]

Well he's been closing for one of the most talented teams in baseball history, so seems as though he's a big more than just some 7th inning guy.

 

Is Walker Buehler just some "middle of the rotation pitcher" because he happened to be behind Kershaw and Bauer in the Dodgers rotation? Or would that be just a little bit mis-leading to frame him as such?

 

Look I am happy for Knebel he looks sharp - wish it wasnt with the Dodgers. If you dont like 7th inning guy as a description fine but he was likely at best our 3rd best option out of the bullpen and was going to cost 5 million. A 3rd bullpen arm is very different than a 3rd start so your comparison to Buehler is misleading as well.

 

It is like have a wr in the NLF who is talented enough to be a top 2 wr but on your team he is the number 3 and is coming off an injury and not high level of production. Do you pay him or not since his value on your team isnt the same as it would be on another team?

 

I honestly dont see anyone trying to diminish Knebel. Here are facts

1. He struggled last year. Even when he came back in September his numbers were solid but not elite.

2. We looked to have a few bullpen arms who were better than him last year.

3. We dont have an abundance of money

4. So far Knebel looks really good and it would have been great to still have him

[sveumrules]

But it was a mistake. You can rationalize it every which way but the fact of the matter is they got it wrong with Jimmy and it looks like they're going to get it wrong again with Corey.

 

Sure, they got it wrong with Jimmy in 2018-19. They still made the playoffs both years & won the 3rd most games in the NL those two seasons.

 

It wasn't a very costly mistake.

 

Maybe the Brewers made amother mistake with Knebel, but will it ultimately matter?

 

Stay tuned, I guess.