Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]

[brewerfan82]

I've clogged this thread enough as is, but this makes my point. Supak and Diplan were both released.

Is it fair to say you just aren't interested in, or maybe you're frustrated by, following minor league players? No one is saying this guy is a sure thing or even a top 20 prospect in the organization, they're just saying he's more intriguing than they thought he would be after it looked like we might release Knebel for nothing or maybe some cash. He's a nice chip to throw into the system, maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't, but he's put up nice enough numbers at a young enough age that I'll be interested in seeing how he progresses, which is more than I can say for the majority of the pitchers in the system. This team needs as many bullets as they can get and it's great that they added another one, instead of... not adding one. I don't see what's to complain about here.

 

As others have noted, I think the majority of this thread, on both sides, is because we have nothing else to talk about right now, lol. Let's hope something fun happens soon!

[MNBrew]

There's Stearns' "controllable young talent" mantra. There's Billy Beane's "Moneyball" approach (capitalize on assets or skills undervalued by others), which also plays right into Stearns' mantra/philosophy.

 

It doesn't matter how you acquire these guys, just that you do, wherever & however you can (affordably).

 

Some will pan out, some won't. In a vacuum, the more you acquire, the better chance that more of them pan out. The more you can accurately scout/assess those traits/skills/performances vs. others, the better your odds that more pan out.

 

Getting something for otherwise-about-to-be-non-tendered Corey Knebel (who I wanted us to keep) is better than getting nothing. Leo Crawford was nobody's "darling prospect," but he's got something Stearns & Co. like enough to choose him over other options on the PTBNL list. I don't have any specific expectations, but I'd be quite pleased with this deal if Crawford gets to Milwaukee & makes a meaningful contribution -- or is used as an asset to help us obtain someone else who does.

 

Meanwhile, a MrAllen said, here's hoping there's more fun & interesting player acquisition news ahead -- which seems at least somewhat inevitable -- so this isn't the Brewers' biggest winter deal.

[brewmann04]

I don't think we be hearing and Fa or Trade news for the Crew.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think we be hearing and Fa or Trade news for the Crew.

 

Well, they don't really have enough players to field a team right now, so logic would dictate that they will be acquiring more.

[JosephC]

I think Crawford has a pretty decent chance of making the 26-man roster in 2021. They currently only have 4 LHP in the 40-man roster. Lauer bombed last year and Perdomo is a boom-or-bust pitcher (by guess is bust but hopefully I am wrong on this). My gut feeling is that the Brewers will want to go with Lauer as the #5 starter to open 2021, but if he falters then they are looking at a situation where they only have 2 LHP on a 13 man pitching staff (one stuck in the relatively inflexible closer role). If the Brewers decide Suter goes into the rotation, what candidates are do they have that would definitely be better than Crawford to backfill Suter's spot in the bullpen? Not crazy to think that there may be an opportunity for a Leo Crawford, Ethan Small or Aaron Ashby...and Crawford looks to be just a tick ahead of the other guys in terms of development. There are times when grabbing a lottery ticket rookie-baller is the best option, but when looking at Crawford and the current composition of pitching on the 40-man roster....not a bit surprised that Stearns went for Crawford and he looks to be a pretty decent pickup.

[MNBrew]

I don't think we be hearing and Fa or Trade news for the Crew.

 

Well, they don't really have enough players to field a team right now, so logic would dictate that they will be acquiring more.

Right, RRB. Per brewmann04's comment, it could probably be amended to "I don't think we'll be hearing any inspiring FA or trade news for the Crew." We'll get somebody -- more likely a couple somebodies.

 

I'm curious and cautiously hopeful about what Stearns could end up doing. But as sure as it's December right now, plenty here will see any move as further evidence to their logic that we should just be blowing it all up, tanking for now, and starting to build a rich prospect pool all over again. (And I'd posit that building the prospect pool is also quite possible while the team's doing well, though clearly we have to be doing much better at it than we have been.)

[patrickgpe]

This thread has gotten crazy. Minimal brewers are signing a starter and 2 corner IF’s. Hardly any moves have been made by any tram. Settle down. Most fans here understood what this trade was. A lottery ticket is better than cash or nothing.

Odds are that he won’t ever be in Milwaukee, but there is a small chance he will

[Eye Black]

It doesn’t make sense that the Brewers would be waiting on some player who is exposed to Rule 5 draft. These teams have an idea ahead of time which players exposed to the draft from which organizations are likely to be selected.

 

More probably true than not, if Knebel makes the Dodgers 26 man roster they probably have an agreement on a player coming back to Milwaukee. If he’s not all the way back and ends up getting released the Brewers probably get cash.

Following up on this from earlier in the week, it was indeed a Rule 5 eligible prospect that the Brewers ultimately acquired.

[Austin Tatious]

Crawford had 134 K’s vs 27 BB’s in 2019 and is still only 23. We know Stearns looks for that data.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think Crawford profiles as a star but I'd say he likely profiles as a big league contributor. Considering they were minutes from non-tendering Knebel, that's a huge win.

[Eye Black]

Baseball America scouting report on Leo Crawford:

 

Crawford is a soft-tossing lefty who succeeds on deception. His fastball sits 87-88 mph and only occasionally scrapes 90-91 mph. Despite that, he went 7-4, 2.18 as a starter while reaching Double-A in 2019 because batters can't time him up. He has a unique, stop-and-start delivery, alters the size and timing of his leg kick and dots the strike zone with solid control and command. He further disrupts hitters timing with his 77-78 mph plus changeup that looks like a fastball out of the hand and drops out of the zone, getting frequent swings and misses out front. He also has an upper-70s curveball. The Brewers have been acquiring bullpen arms with funk and deception, and Crawford fits that mold. He doesn't have enough stuff to start in the majors, but his unique look and fastball-changeup combination give him a chance to rise as a middle reliever.

[markedman5]

That scouting report sounds almost exactly like Suter

[TURBO]

Maybe this will allow them to move Suter?

[LouisEly]

I guess that's where we disagree, what suggests that he's "a bit more than a lottery ticket"? I guess I'm trying to wrap my mind around that opinion statement.

 

What's the basis for that opinion? A-ball numbers?

The basis for my opinion was the context of those A-ball and AA numbers being put up in very hitter-friendly leagues and stadiums. If you didn't catch that context, or know which minor leagues and stadiums are hitter-friendly vs. neutral vs. pitcher-friendly to add context to stats, then perhaps you should shouldn't comment on those opinions.

[markedman5]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/dodgers-corey-knebel-avoid-arbitration.html

[Oxy]

Knebel struck out the side on 10 pitches in a 1-0 save situation throwing 97 mph. Crawford seems light for a return. We'll see.

[adambr2]

I've learned from threads like this that we tend to find value in everything we ever get in a trade as long as the individual has a pulse and has played baseball before.

 

Crawford is a nothing burger. However, that doesn't mean we didn't get enough -- that's all we were going to get because we were going to non-tender Knebel anyway. Which at this point, looks like a bad decision.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

This is going to be an easy one to revisit, but I think it says more about the structural inequalities in baseball than player evaluation.

 

Knebel was gonna get paid in arb. And, with BP volatility and his injury history, there was just too big a chance it would've been 5+ mil down the drain. The Dodgers can take that risk easy. We can't. Sucks. But the potential non-tender makes sense even if Knebel is an all-star this year.

 

Getting something was the best DS was ever gonna do.

[Jopal78]

This is going to be an easy one to revisit, but I think it says more about the structural inequalities in baseball than player evaluation.

 

Knebel was gonna get paid in arb. And, with BP volatility and his injury history, there was just too big a chance it would've been 5+ mil down the drain. The Dodgers can take that risk easy. We can't. Sucks. But the potential non-tender makes sense even if Knebel is an all-star this year.

 

Getting something was the best DS was ever gonna do.

 

But it wasn’t. It was short sighted and miserly. Knebel before TJ surgery was an above average relief pitcher with the ability to be dominant at times. With a salary of 5 million dollars you can consider him a bargain given what Trevor Rosenthal and others received as free agents

 

Nowadays it is the exception when a pitcher doesn’t make it back from TJ surgery. It’s not Knebel’s fault his rehab from TJ surgery was waylaid by COVID-19. By the time he was throwing, camp shut down and he had to rehab on his own. Then the first innings he pitched post surgery were in MLB regular season games in 2020.

 

He was due 5 million dollars in arbitration. But the Brewers decided to cut bait rather than take a chance, and got a Dodger nobody in return. That’s their prerogative but for an analytical team that’s seeking value it was and

is a dumb move. They threw more money away on Jimmy Nelson who blew out his shoulder in two places and had a smaller track record of being good than Knebel.

 

There are inequities in the game like the Dodgers having a guy like David Price coming out of the bullpen. This isn’t one of them; this is Stearns weakening his own club and aiding his competition.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I can see that point, certainly. You could argue Knebel was a good risk.

 

I just think the uncertainty bars were bigger around him than some. Plus, it's possible DS saw Topa as a way to save some money by replicating something like Knebel. Not saying it was right, just that it was defensible given all the variables.

 

The part I disagree with is the Jimmy Nelson example. I don't think it's the same. For one, COVID adds extra uncertainty and financial pressure. Would you trade Wong for Knebel? I wouldn't; some might. The point is, that's what it comes down to for me. For another, I think, even today, starters are different and more valuable than one-inning relievers (Knebel is not and will likely not be a Hader/Miller/Iglesias type who can pitch more than 1 regularly) and maybe justify some extra risk.

 

Given what the team knew at the time, I don't think the process was flawed. This feels like a "reasonable people can disagree" over the right move situation to me. Put it this way: Should Knebel return to something like his old self (still to be seen), the ease with which people will second guess will not accurately reflect the decision at the time. That's not to say it won't have been the wrong call. Just that the team's reasonable guess turned out badly.

[Thurston Fluff]

Keep in mind Knebel was sent to the minors at one point for poor performance. The risk wasn't just how he would come back from surgery but which Knebel was coming back.

[brewers888]

I would have rather spent 5 million on Knebel than spending 25 million for 2 years of Bradley who can't hit.

[umphrey]

Clearly MLB execs didn’t consider him that valuable or someone would have bested the Crawford offer

[RollieTime]

He has pitched 3.1 innings this season. The hot takes on this board the first week to ten days this season have been some of the hottest I’ve seen on here. Give it some time to see how it plays out. Crawford has been very good throughout his minor league career. He could reasonably be the better player in the deal. Let’s give it a little more time than 3 innings to draw a conclusion on this.

[adambr2]

He has pitched 3.1 innings this season. The hot takes on this board the first week to ten days this season have been some of the hottest I’ve seen on here. Give it some time to see how it plays out. Crawford has been very good throughout his minor league career. He could reasonably be the better player in the deal. Let’s give it a little more time than 3 innings to draw a conclusion on this.

 

It's not really about the results, it's more than that the stuff has been back to where it was pre-2019. If he were throwing 91-92 and just getting lucky, I'd agree with you. But it looks like he's been back.

 

Crawford is really nothing more than an organizational piece and probably more likely than not to never see any significant innings at the MLB level. I would not call the possibility of him being the better player in this deal a very reasonable take.