Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]

[brewcrewdue80]

From former Brewers beat writer Robert Murray’s article on the non-tender deadline...

 

A last-minute Corey Knebel trade

 

10 minutes before the non-tender deadline, a Brewers executive with direct knowledge of the situation said that it was “looking like Corey Knebel won’t get (a deal) done” and that a non-tender appeared imminent.

 

Five minutes before the deadline, the Brewers reached an agreement to send Knebel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

 

The deal came at the eleventh hour and sent one of the Brewers’ best relievers to the defending World Series champions. Had Knebel been non-tendered, his market in free agency would have been strong, with one high-ranking National League official saying his team was “salivating” when reports surfaced that he would reach free agency.

 

Instead, Knebel heads to a Dodgers team that is uniquely positioned to take on his $5 million salary. When healthy, he has established himself as one of baseball’s best relievers. But he is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery and put up a 6.08 ERA in 15 appearances with his fastball velocity dropping from 96.9 mph in 2018 to 94.3 in 2020.

 

Knebel, however, showed glimpses of his pre-injury form late in the season, highlighted by a six-strikeout performance against the Cardinals on Sept. 15. The Dodgers have had recent success adding pitchers coming off injury, such as Brandon Morrow and Blake Treinen, and are hoping for similar results for Knebel.

 

“He has a chance to be really productive again,” one Brewers executive said. “Once he gets far enough removed from surgery, watch out. His stuff was there in flashes.”

 

Said one teammate of Knebel’s in Milwaukee: “He’s not done by any stretch.”

 

Really frustrating to give up a quality player over 5 million, especially when we could have let him go and saved a good chuck of that if things didn't work out in spring training. If I had any faith we could spend that 5 million on a similar caliber hitter it would be different but seems like a year where we are getting bargain basement retreads again, at least with Corey you feel OK about him bouncing back and being a much better trade chip mid season when relievers are at a premium.

 

Kinda why I didn't know you could drop an Arb paid player 30 or 45days and not be responsible for that years full contract.

You would think tendering a contract and keeping players at least til that 30 day point to see how that player is doing. Keep as insurance while targeting a FA you may think only have a 1% chance of getting.

So for example take Arcia. Say we somehow fell in to a contract deal for DJ Lemahieu, you would remove Arcia for just a cpl hundred thousand? Just doesn't seem right. But okay.

[jerichoholicninja]

Relievers are so crazy inconsistent year to year and even within a season, then factor in coming off TJ, that I'm fine with trading Corey for anything instead of paying him $5M. Use that money for a bench player that can hit his weight. For once, let's dump a reliever before he Turn-blows a season away.

[MrTPlush]

Kind of a hype article than something legitimate. Let’s not forget Knebel has had one good year in his entire career. He then had a pretty shaky year and then got injured. He showed some flashes last year, but relievers that ‘show flashes of brilliance’ might be the most common commodity in baseball. He is far from his days of being elite and again...that was one year. Article acts like he was Mariano Rivera on his way to a HOF career.

 

I have no doubt he has some left in the tank, but his consistency and how good he will actually be is far from a sure thing.

[Baldkin]

Jordan Sheffield is a name on that list that pops out at me. He’s not been able to solve the control problem but he was a fairly well regarded name at one point.

 

I forgot about Jeren Kendall. He has really struggled with the hit tool.

 

I was hoping we found a way to bring Knebel back at a lower number.

 

Sheffield and Kendall. A couple of names from the ghosts of Brewers past.

[Jopal78]

Kind of a hype article than something legitimate. Let’s not forget Knebel has had one good year in his entire career. He then had a pretty shaky year and then got injured. He showed some flashes last year, but relievers that ‘show flashes of brilliance’ might be the most common commodity in baseball. He is far from his days of being elite and again...that was one year. Article acts like he was Mariano Rivera on his way to a HOF career.

 

I have no doubt he has some left in the tank, but his consistency and how good he will actually be is far from a sure thing.

 

I guess people want to dog the guy because he tore an elbow ligament, which i guess is fine. But come on, Knebel had 20 rough innings in July and August of 18. Other than that he was a killer on the mound. Even with his rough patch nobody can legitimately criticize his stats with the Brewers .

 

If he never makes it back from his TJ surgery, they’ll look like geniuses. Otherwise they traded a great late inning arm to the team who eliminated them from the playoffs in two of the last three years.

[PeaveyFury]

. But come on, Knebel had 20 rough innings in July and August of 18. Other than that he was a killer on the mound. Even with his rough patch nobody can legitimately criticize his stats with the Brewers

 

There's a some of legacy twisting going on with Knebel:

2015: Above Average Reliever

2016: Below Average Reliever

2017: Elite Reliever

2018: Above Average Reliever

2020: Poor Reliever

 

The Dodgers have the luxury of trying to see if Knebel can come back from an injury and be elite again as he was three seasons ago. But, if he's just 'above average' as he was for most of his career before the injury, that's easy for the Brewers to replace and paying Knebel $5 million to do it would be a poor use of their financial resources.

[Jopal78]

. But come on, Knebel had 20 rough innings in July and August of 18. Other than that he was a killer on the mound. Even with his rough patch nobody can legitimately criticize his stats with the Brewers

 

There's a some of legacy twisting going on with Knebel:

2015: Above Average Reliever

2016: Below Average Reliever

2017: Elite Reliever

2018: Above Average Reliever

2020: Poor Reliever

 

The Dodgers have the luxury of trying to see if Knebel can come back from an injury and be elite again as he was three seasons ago. But, if he's just 'above average' as he was for most of his career before the injury, that's easy for the Brewers to replace and paying Knebel $5 million to do it would be a poor use of their financial resources.

 

If there's any legacy twisting, it's the subjective arbitrary conclusions of "above average" "below average" etc.

 

Lets actually look at the numbers:

2015: 50 innings pitched, 1.21 WHIP, 10.4 K per 9, SO/W 3.41. By comparison, Trevor Rosenthal was selected to the All-Star game that year and his stat line included 1.267 WHIP, 10.9 K per 9, SO/W 3.32. The only difference between this All-Star and Knebel is Rosenthal was a closer with 48 saves, and Knebel was 4th in the pecking order behind K. Rod, Will Smith and Jeffress.

 

2018: 55 innings pitched, 1.08 WHIP, 14.3K per 9, SO/W 4.00. By comparison, Jeremy Jeffress was selected to the All-Star game that year. His stat line included a 0.99 WHIP, 10.4K per 9, SO/W 3.30.

 

In 2020, when he hadn't pitched in over a year due to TJ surgery, and rehabbed without the benefit of either spring training games or the minor leagues. There's either a double standard being used or I assume the same criticism of being a "poor player" would also apply to Yelich, Hiura, Braun, Urias, Narvaez and would make them dicey bets going forward.

 

Moreover, the "risk" the Dodgers are taking here is overblown. This isn't Jimmy Nelson where he was trying to make a comeback from multiple areas of structural damage in his shoulder. Knebel had Tommy John surgery, a very common procedure with modern major league pitchers and one that typically has closer to a 2 year window before being back to pre-injury effectiveness.

 

Its been beaten to death, we can agree to disagree and time will tell.

[PeaveyFury]

If there's any legacy twisting, it's the subjective arbitrary conclusions of "above average" "below average" etc.

 

It's not subjective and arbitrary when there are literally widely-used & accepted stats to measure relative performance like this.

 

Instead, citing WHIP and K/BB ratio? There are simply better ways now to evaluate players than stats like this that were cutting edge 25 years ago. And comparing a player to an All-Star selection in a year is flawed for a number of reasons, most notably because A)All-stars are selected mid-year and based on mid-year performance, and B)No one would argue that all All-star selections are deserving of said selection in the first place.

 

There's either a double standard being used or I assume the same criticism of being a "poor player" would also apply to Yelich, Hiura, Braun, Urias, Narvaez and would make them dicey bets going forward.

.

 

If they also hadn't performed at a high level in three seasons and were still recovering from an injury, there probably would be similar concern. But, apples/oranges.

 

Again, the intention isn't to knock Knebel unfairly. It's to ensure that there's a clear understanding of what his performance was as a Brewer and of what his legacy should be. In the end, he was an above-average reliever who was absolutely elite one year, but hasn't been so for three seasons and is at a currently unknown stage of his recovery from an arm injury.

[monty57]

If I had to guess, I'd say that Knebel will pitch well this year, but I don't have to bet $5,000,000 on it after losing a bunch of money last year and not knowing whether the politicians are going to let fans back in the stands next season.

 

Any other year, I'd say that the Brewers would have tendered him a contract. They just can't afford to take that risk this year.

[Eye Black]

From JJ Cooper of Baseball America:

 

It's been a weird year, but the #Rule5Fever remains. We're bumping our preview from 10 names (pitiful I know) to close to 50. It's being edited now. Will be up shortly. More names to come. A ton of Dodgers are on the list.

 

Translation: The Dodgers have good prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

 

EDIT: Here is the Baseball America article, 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft Preview Version 2.0

 

It includes write-ups on the following seven Dodgers prospects (by far the most of any team)...

 

Marshall Kasowski, RHP

Brett de Geus, RHP

Shea Spitzbarth, RHP

Jordan Sheffield, RHP

Omar Estevez, 2B

Cristian Santana, 3B

Cody Thomas, OF

 

The only Brewers prospect included in their list of 50 Rule 5 eligible players to watch is catcher Payton Henry.

[MrTPlush]

How is Knebel worth $5mil and giving up a prospect...but Brad Hand was put on waivers (and unclaimed) at $10mil?

 

I mean no team was willing to take on Hand and $5mil for the same price as Knebel? Heck, sending Hand somewhere with $9mil would have been a better outcome.

 

Did I miss something with Hand? Did he lose his left hand shaving or something?

[MadThinker88]

How is Knebel worth $5mil and giving up a prospect...but Brad Hand was put on waivers (and unclaimed) at $10mil?

 

I mean no team was willing to take on Hand and $5mil for the same price as Knebel? Heck, sending Hand somewhere with $9mil would have been a better outcome.

 

Did I miss something with Hand? Did he lose his left hand shaving or something?

 

It should be noted that Sandy Alderson (Mets FO) came out & said that IF the ownership transfer of the Mets had happened sooner, the Mets would have made a waiver claim on Hand..

[adambr2]

The Brad Hand thing baffles me too. He's been the definition of a shutdown reliever since 2016. Sure, some years have been more shutdown than others, but that kind of consistency from a reliever is rare. Why someone would deem Corey Knebel worthy of a flyer for over 5M and not just spend a few million extra for Hand is flabbergasting to me. I can't figure out how the Indians even waived him for 1/9, let alone how every single team in baseball took a pass on him at 1/10.

[Brewers Numbers]

Mike Petriello did a Twitter thread on this - graphs are in the Twitter thread:

 

So LHP Brad Hand, who has been good for several years, can't get $10M, but LHP Drew Smyly, who is almost never good or healthy and is older than Hand, can get $11M. That's a good one to wrap your head around. It's going to be a weird winter. Obviously.

 

I mean it's not that hard to see what the Braves are hoping for in Smyly. Look at this velo increase, and the Top 8 K% (min 25 IP, which admittedly isn't a lot).

 

And it's not that hard to see signs of concern with Hand. Look at that velo drop both on fastball and slider, and look at how he's stopped getting grounders. I'm not all that bullish on his future. But ...

 

... he did just strike out 1/3 of the batters he faced and walk 4 guys. It's clear that teams are paying for what they think you'll do and don't care about what you've done, which is fine enough for them. This does seem a little big-brained to me, though. Man shrugging

[Eye Black]

I'd guess the PTBNL is a Rule V draft candidate. If he is selected... then probably cash.

I think that’s a possibility as well. If it is the case then it’s likely someone on the list below.

 

Dodgers minor leaguers that are Rule 5 eligible:

 

Donovan Casey OF/RHP

Brett de Geus RHP

Omar Estevez SS/2B

Marshall Kasowski RHP

Jeren Kendall OF

Logan Salow LHP

Justin Yurchak 1B/3B

Guillermo Zuniga RHP

Cody Thomas OF

Parker Curry RHP

Nolan Long RHP

Brayan Morales OF

Carlos Rincon OF/DH

Errol Robinson SS/2B/3B

Cristian Santana 3B/1B/SS

Jordan Sheffield RHP

Shea Spitzbarth RHP

Leonel Valera SS/3B/2B

Nick Yarnall 1B/OF

Two Dodgers were selected during the Rule 5 Draft major league portion, RHP Brett de Geus was taken by the Rangers with the 2nd overall selection and RHP Jordan Sheffield was taken by the Colorado Rockies with the 8th overall selection.

 

RHP Shea Spitzbarth was then selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates with the 1st selection in the Triple-A portion of the Rule 5 draft.

 

Also, infielder Errol Robinson was taken by the Cincinnati Reds in the Triple-A portion.

[Eye Black]

Brewers announce they've acquired LHP Leo Crawford from the Dodgers to complete the trade.

 

Crawford's best pitch is reportedly his changeup.

[LouisEly]

Brewers announce they've acquired LHP Leo Crawford from the Dodgers to complete the trade.

Promising numbers for pitching in the hitter-friendly CAL and Texas leagues in 2019.

[homer]

Those are pretty darn good numbers for the launching pad leagues he was in. Heck, they're good numbers for anywhere but especially Rancho and Tulsa.

 

edit: JINX

[pacopete4]

Uhhh.... Did Stearns just get a rotation piece for a guy we were going to release?

[markedman5]

Found this....sounds a little like Zach Davies.........but maybe with a funky delivery....

https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-unheralded-prospect-series-leo-crawford/2020/04/22/

 

 

ps I guess Stearns didn't take the cash.......

[folly412]

Couple of profiles:

https://www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-prospect-watch-leo-crawford

https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-unheralded-prospect-series-leo-crawford/2020/04/22/

 

Primarily a starter in the minors, tops out around 92 with a changeup.

 

Unless I'm missing some red flags this is a very nice pickup for Knebel, who was about to be non-tendered.

[Eye Black]

[Eye Black]

From Eric Longenhagen in his FanGraphs chat:

 

Last I saw Crawford he was 87-92 coming out of the Tony Cingrani sort of release point. Milwaukee likes those pitchers who present an odd look, so maybe that's at play here.

[markedman5]

Will Sammon

@WillSammon

·

32m

David Stearns said Leo Crawford's changeup has improved, and that has helped him produce some high K rates and good overall numbers.

 

Crawford does not need to be on 40-man roster and will have all three options remaining once added, Stearns said.

Will Sammon

@WillSammon

·

30m

It will be Double A or Triple A for Crawford, Stearns said, depending on how some other things go

[CheezWizHed]

Besides being a bit closed in his stance (right foot closer to 1st base than his left foot on the rubber), I didn't see anything too "funky" about his delivery. Which is a good thing as hitches and things like that tend to be learned and/or hard to maintain mechanics for the pitcher.

 

Also odd that he wasn't available for the Rule 5 draft, yet, it came immediately afterwards. I wonder if the Brewers would've taken someone else if deGeus had fallen to them (or a handshake agreement with the Dodgers for cash if they took deGeus).

 

Edit - maybe I should've watched a bit more before commenting. He does vary his timing, some motion, and his leg-kick during his delivery. A couple that I saw seemed like borderline balks.