Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]

[MrTPlush]

Didn't the Dodgers say the same type of thing with Jimmy Nelson?

 

Probably, we probably said the same about Neftali Feliz too.

 

That type of comment is about as relevant as someone coming to spring training "in the best shape of their life".

[SeaBass]

Didn't the Dodgers say the same type of thing with Jimmy Nelson?

 

Probably, we probably said the same about Neftali Feliz too.

 

That type of comment is about as relevant as someone coming to spring training "in the best shape of their life".

Yep, look no further than last year's acquisition of Narvaez. The Brewers were gonna coach him up real good on his defense once he got here. And now I see comments about his improved defense, which is fine and I don't take issue with, but it's not like any other team hasn't tried to make their players better before. It's what teams do.

[monty57]

I think you're knocking Knebel and implying he somehow was no longer good

 

I mean, he wasn't. As you note, lots of potential explanations. But he wasn't. And he wasn't anything beyond slightly above average in 2018 either, before the TJ surgery. Just pointing out the statistical facts. You can interpret them however you'd like, obviously.

 

I think what you're choosing to focus on is the loss of a guy that used to be good because of financial constraints, while not acknowledging that A)it is VERY possible that Knebel won't be worth close to $5 million next year, and B)that there's also a good possibility that, though you are correct that the loss of his talent has made the bullpen less talented overall at this moment in time, the off season isn't over and they made be able to replace or exceed said talent level in a more cost-effective way.

 

Other than spiking his HR/FB rate to 20.6% (from 9.5%), his 2018 numbers are as good or better than 2017:

 

2017 IP 76, K/9 14.92, BB/9 4.74, GB% 38.3, ERA 1.78, FIP 2.53, xFIP 2.97

2018 IP 55.1, K/9 14.31, BB/9 3.58, GB% 47.7, ERA 3.58, FIP 3.03, xFIP 2.40

 

He struck out about as many, walked a lot less, and induced more ground balls. If you normalize the HR rate (xFIP) he was better. Of course, he did give up the homers, but he pitched well in 2018.

 

He didn't get a normal rehab due to this goofy year and minor league baseball being cancelled, but he's right at the point where he should be back to full strength. He's 29, so there's not really any reason to think that he couldn't be just as good as he was before the surgery. But we don't know, so there's risk.

 

It sucks that the MLB willfully gives bigger markets an advantage over smaller markets, and it sucks that the COVID-induced payroll cuts are happening. I would like for the Brewers to be able to take the risk on Knebel, but I understand why they can't. Having him back at full strength would really ease the pain of trading away Hader.

 

But, it's done. I hope they use the money saved to get a good 3B, and I hope the young relievers we have step up so we still have a solid 'pen.

[adambr2]

Knebel hadn't pitched effectively for a sustained stretch since 2018, and even that was an up and down season for him. He's 29 and is by no means guaranteed to ever pitch at his 2017 level again.

 

This is a time when many teams, not just the Brewers are cutting costs where possible. There are guys out there closer to Josh Hader than Corey Knebel having their options declined or being non-tendered. I'm glad we were able to get something for Corey and it would have come as no surprise to me had he been non-tendered instead.

[PeaveyFury]

Other than spiking his HR/FB rate to 20.6% (from 9.5%), his 2018 numbers are as good or better than 2017:

 

I hear what you're saying, but I just can't justify basing the difference between 3.5 WAR in 2017 and 0.4 WAR in 2018 just on HR/FB rate.

 

Like adam, I remember the Knebel that finished strong at the end of 2018, but was so bad at one point that he was demoted to the minors a month before that.

[MrTPlush]

Other than spiking his HR/FB rate to 20.6% (from 9.5%), his 2018 numbers are as good or better than 2017:

 

I hear what you're saying, but I just can't justify basing the difference between 3.5 WAR in 2017 and 0.4 WAR in 2018 just on HR/FB rate.

 

Like adam, I remember the Knebel that finished strong at the end of 2018, but was so bad at one point that he was demoted to the minors a month before that.

 

0.00 ERA and a 18.2 K/9....completely bonkers in September 2018. Good times.

[brewcrewdue80]

How can the Dodgers only pay Kneble "Hundreds of Thousands" to see if he'll fit in their bullpen or cut bait? Whatever they agree to pay during the Arbitration, LA is on the hook for. The only ways I know of where that doesn't apply are:

Retires

Suspension

 

Another team takes him to pay him.

 

This is a matter of LA wanted him and only guarantee to get him was by trade. Any other process beyond trade they were going to be second fiddle. Waiver claim? Last team to be able to. FA sign? Kneble's choice of offers.

LA isn't paying to bring him in for a look. Kneble deserves a spot on the team.

I'm telling ya, the PTBNL will happen when Kneble's salary for 2021 is decided in Arb. That or once both sides at least present the amounts for the Arbitrator to decide from. You know how a number of posters propose trade ideas via the trade value sites. Well What's Kneble's trade value between the numbers of 4.2million and 6.2million? (Who knows what Kneble will ask?)

[djoctagone]

How can the Dodgers only pay Kneble [sic] "Hundreds of Thousands" to see if he'll fit in their bullpen or cut bait? Whatever they agree to pay during the Arbitration, LA is on the hook for. The only ways I know of where that doesn't apply are:

Retires

Suspension

 

Another team takes him to pay him.

first off, you're assuming that knebel goes all the way to an arbitration hearing. most players agree to terms ahead of a scheduled hearing.

 

second, these contracts are not fully guaranteed if the player is cut during spring training. clubs still have to shell out a bit of pro-rated pay once opening day hits (which is the same time that rostered players start getting paid).

[MrTPlush]

Arbitration contracts aren’t guaranteed. There are certain deadline days in spring training where some of the salary gets guaranteed. Automatically 30 days are guaranteed. 17th day of spring training 45 days are guaranteed, and then at break of camp it is fully guaranteed.

[nate82]

I think the Brewers will get a good prospect from the Dodgers though I wouldn't expect anything higher than a C grade prospect.

 

A couple of players that I think would be on the Brewers radar:

 

OF Cody Thomas

2B Jorbit Vivas

1B/3B Brandon Lewis

RHP Edwin Uceta

2B/SS Omar Estevez

[TURBO]

 

When does the new team not make a comment like this?

 

Which is whay I said that these kind of statements bother me. Just such a stupid thing to say, while backhandedly ripping the coaching staff of the previous team.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd guess the PTBNL is a Rule V draft candidate. If he is selected... then probably cash.

[wibadgers23]

I'd guess the PTBNL is a Rule V draft candidate. If he is selected... then probably cash.

 

Omar Estevez is Rule V eligible and he's an intriguing player. Put up decent numbers in AA in 2019 at a relatively young age. Plays 2B and SS so could be a good (and cheap) utility guy. Not sure if he's worth a spot on the 26 man roster though.

[Eye Black]

I'd guess the PTBNL is a Rule V draft candidate. If he is selected... then probably cash.

I think that’s a possibility as well. If it is the case then it’s likely someone on the list below.

 

Dodgers minor leaguers that are Rule 5 eligible:

 

Donovan Casey OF/RHP

Brett de Geus RHP

Omar Estevez SS/2B

Marshall Kasowski RHP

Jeren Kendall OF

Logan Salow LHP

Justin Yurchak 1B/3B

Guillermo Zuniga RHP

Cody Thomas OF

Parker Curry RHP

Nolan Long RHP

Brayan Morales OF

Carlos Rincon OF/DH

Errol Robinson SS/2B/3B

Cristian Santana 3B/1B/SS

Jordan Sheffield RHP

Shea Spitzbarth RHP

Leonel Valera SS/3B/2B

Nick Yarnall 1B/OF

[MNBrew]

Knebel was indeed pretty decent in Sept. 2020, too. He was a calculated risk either way -- keep him or let him go in some way -- monetary or loss of a good bullpen arm. I don't like that we let him go, but I agree that the Brewers are pretty consistently decent at filling the BP with capable arms, and the ones that don't pan out don't stick around forever anyway.

 

As others have said, the corner IF spots are a much more glaring need for the limited resources we have -- though I don't say "limited" to mean we have nothing to spend, just that the dollars available are not infinite (so much for Arenado!) and what we have to spend must to be used wisely.

 

I doubt it would happen -- and if it could, I have no idea how -- but I wonder if somehow the PTBNL part of this could somehow expand into a bigger part 2 of this deal where we might land some stronger (possibly blocked) prospect capital from LA.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I still think that given how quickly it came together that a list is possible. That being said, if it is a Rule 5 eligible guy, I'm kind of rooting for Zuniga. Seems more likely to make the big leagues than upside guys Kendall, Sheffield and Rincon. Also seems less likely to either be selected in the draft (Estevez, de Geus, Kasowski) or be a guy the Dodgers would be hesitant to deal if he isn't (Thomas) than the other top prospects on the list. I guess from an organizational filler perspective Robinson makes sense, but unless they view him as a prospect, which they might, why bother. You can fill out the AAA middle infield spots in minor league free agency.

[Jopal78]

It doesn’t make sense that the Brewers would be waiting on some player who is exposed to Rule 5 draft. These teams have an idea ahead of time which players exposed to the draft from which organizations are likely to be selected.

 

More probably true than not, if Knebel makes the Dodgers 26 man roster they probably have an agreement on a player coming back to Milwaukee. If he’s not all the way back and ends up getting released the Brewers probably get cash.

[monty57]

It doesn’t make sense that the Brewers would be waiting on some player who is exposed to Rule 5 draft. These teams have an idea ahead of time which players exposed to the draft from which organizations are likely to be selected.

 

More probably true than not, if Knebel makes the Dodgers 26 man roster they probably have an agreement on a player coming back to Milwaukee. If he’s not all the way back and ends up getting released the Brewers probably get cash.

 

I think the logic is that if the Brewers took someone who is eligible for the draft, then they could lose him in the draft. If they wait until after the draft, they'll know if he's gone, and they can have him in the organization and not need to add him to the 40-man until next offseason.

[Eye Black]

It doesn’t make sense that the Brewers would be waiting on some player who is exposed to Rule 5 draft. These teams have an idea ahead of time which players exposed to the draft from which organizations are likely to be selected.

 

More probably true than not, if Knebel makes the Dodgers 26 man roster they probably have an agreement on a player coming back to Milwaukee. If he’s not all the way back and ends up getting released the Brewers probably get cash.

 

I think the logic is that if the Brewers took someone who is eligible for the draft, then they could lose him in the draft. If they wait until after the draft, they'll know if he's gone, and they can have him in the organization and not need to add him to the 40-man until next offseason.

Yeah, it’s a pretty common practice for a PTBNL to not be announced until after the Rule 5 draft for those exact reasons. In those cases cash is often the backup alternative if the agreed upon player is drafted by another organization.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Wasn’t Manny Pina one recent Brewers example?

[Eye Black]

Wasn’t Manny Pina one recent Brewers example?

Yes, good memory (Article Link):

 

Pina, who was not on Detroit's 40-man roster, was not added to the Brewers' 40-man roster but has received an invitation to spring training.

 

Milwaukee's acquisition of Pina completes last month's deal for Rodriguez, who was traded to Detroit in exchange for infield prospect Javier Betancourt and a player to be named later.

 

Major League Baseball has explicitly stated that any PTBNL must be eligible to be traded at the time the trade is agreed upon. The Brewers did not disclose who they would acquire as a PTBNL until the completion of Thursday's Rule 5 Draft.

[Austin Tatious]

Jordan Sheffield is a name on that list that pops out at me. He’s not been able to solve the control problem but he was a fairly well regarded name at one point.

 

I forgot about Jeren Kendall. He has really struggled with the hit tool.

 

I was hoping we found a way to bring Knebel back at a lower number.

[LouisEly]

I'd guess the PTBNL is a Rule V draft candidate. If he is selected... then probably cash.

I think that’s a possibility as well. If it is the case then it’s likely someone on the list below.

 

Dodgers minor leaguers that are Rule 5 eligible:

 

Donovan Casey OF/RHP

Brett de Geus RHP

Omar Estevez SS/2B

Marshall Kasowski RHP

Jeren Kendall OF

Logan Salow LHP

Justin Yurchak 1B/3B

Guillermo Zuniga RHP

Cody Thomas OF

Parker Curry RHP

Nolan Long RHP

Brayan Morales OF

Carlos Rincon OF/DH

Errol Robinson SS/2B/3B

Cristian Santana 3B/1B/SS

Jordan Sheffield RHP

Shea Spitzbarth RHP

Leonel Valera SS/3B/2B

Nick Yarnall 1B/OF

Kasowski, Salow, and Long have the type of strikeout numbers the Brewers often take a flyer on.

[Eye Black]

From former Brewers beat writer Robert Murray’s article on the non-tender deadline...

 

A last-minute Corey Knebel trade

 

10 minutes before the non-tender deadline, a Brewers executive with direct knowledge of the situation said that it was “looking like Corey Knebel won’t get (a deal) done” and that a non-tender appeared imminent.

 

Five minutes before the deadline, the Brewers reached an agreement to send Knebel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

 

The deal came at the eleventh hour and sent one of the Brewers’ best relievers to the defending World Series champions. Had Knebel been non-tendered, his market in free agency would have been strong, with one high-ranking National League official saying his team was “salivating” when reports surfaced that he would reach free agency.

 

Instead, Knebel heads to a Dodgers team that is uniquely positioned to take on his $5 million salary. When healthy, he has established himself as one of baseball’s best relievers. But he is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery and put up a 6.08 ERA in 15 appearances with his fastball velocity dropping from 96.9 mph in 2018 to 94.3 in 2020.

 

Knebel, however, showed glimpses of his pre-injury form late in the season, highlighted by a six-strikeout performance against the Cardinals on Sept. 15. The Dodgers have had recent success adding pitchers coming off injury, such as Brandon Morrow and Blake Treinen, and are hoping for similar results for Knebel.

 

“He has a chance to be really productive again,” one Brewers executive said. “Once he gets far enough removed from surgery, watch out. His stuff was there in flashes.”

 

Said one teammate of Knebel’s in Milwaukee: “He’s not done by any stretch.”

[OldHeidelberg]

From former Brewers beat writer Robert Murray’s article on the non-tender deadline...

 

A last-minute Corey Knebel trade

 

10 minutes before the non-tender deadline, a Brewers executive with direct knowledge of the situation said that it was “looking like Corey Knebel won’t get (a deal) done” and that a non-tender appeared imminent.

 

Five minutes before the deadline, the Brewers reached an agreement to send Knebel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

 

The deal came at the eleventh hour and sent one of the Brewers’ best relievers to the defending World Series champions. Had Knebel been non-tendered, his market in free agency would have been strong, with one high-ranking National League official saying his team was “salivating” when reports surfaced that he would reach free agency.

 

Instead, Knebel heads to a Dodgers team that is uniquely positioned to take on his $5 million salary. When healthy, he has established himself as one of baseball’s best relievers. But he is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery and put up a 6.08 ERA in 15 appearances with his fastball velocity dropping from 96.9 mph in 2018 to 94.3 in 2020.

 

Knebel, however, showed glimpses of his pre-injury form late in the season, highlighted by a six-strikeout performance against the Cardinals on Sept. 15. The Dodgers have had recent success adding pitchers coming off injury, such as Brandon Morrow and Blake Treinen, and are hoping for similar results for Knebel.

 

“He has a chance to be really productive again,” one Brewers executive said. “Once he gets far enough removed from surgery, watch out. His stuff was there in flashes.”

 

Said one teammate of Knebel’s in Milwaukee: “He’s not done by any stretch.”

 

Really frustrating to give up a quality player over 5 million, especially when we could have let him go and saved a good chuck of that if things didn't work out in spring training. If I had any faith we could spend that 5 million on a similar caliber hitter it would be different but seems like a year where we are getting bargain basement retreads again, at least with Corey you feel OK about him bouncing back and being a much better trade chip mid season when relievers are at a premium.