Knebel Traded to the Dodgers for PTBNL [LHP Leo Crawford]

[Thurston Fluff]

Makes me wonder if part of the call to nontender was they felt there were some red flags about his mechanics, body type or whatever that made them believe he had a higher injury risk than they were comfortable with.

Pure speculation on my part. Either way it sucks for him.

[Simba2020]

Corey diagnosed with a triceps injury. Hopefully for him it won't shelve him for too long.

 

[markedman5]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/04/dodgers-injury-notes-knebel-kelly-mckinstry-gonsolin-lux.html

[Jopal78]

Are we truly making a determination based on 4.1 IP? This used to be the haven of 'small sample size'.... seems far more reasonable to wait and see if Corey makes it through the next few months effective and healthy before we make a determination.

 

Reposting for effect. I wish Corey the best, but a nice reminder that 4 innings means absolutely nothing vs. the big picture.

 

 

So you’d cut Woodruff loose if he blew out his elbow tomorrow? Knebel is an all-star. He had TJ surgery. 80% of pitchers will have a major arm injury at some point. It was a cost cutting measure plain and simple, people can debate that all day long with both sides having merit. Sniping with “told ya so” is the lowest form of debate.

[jjfanec]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/04/dodgers-injury-notes-knebel-kelly-mckinstry-gonsolin-lux.html

 

Out for months and they hope he will pitch again this year. Tough break

[RollieTime]

Are we truly making a determination based on 4.1 IP? This used to be the haven of 'small sample size'.... seems far more reasonable to wait and see if Corey makes it through the next few months effective and healthy before we make a determination.

 

Reposting for effect. I wish Corey the best, but a nice reminder that 4 innings means absolutely nothing vs. the big picture.

 

 

So you’d cut Woodruff loose if he blew out his elbow tomorrow? Knebel is an all-star. He had TJ surgery. 80% of pitchers will have a major arm injury at some point. It was a cost cutting measure plain and simple, people can debate that all day long with both sides having merit. Sniping with “told ya so” is the lowest form of debate.

 

I’m sure it’s more of trying to have people keep their emotions in check and to not freak out over a trade because of a pitcher pitching well for 5 innings. The Brewers made the right decision in this trade. The Brewers got it right and for some reason you won’t admit it.

 

Knebel struggled in 2018, then had Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2019, and then struggled in 2020. 3 years of getting little to nothing from him outside of a small stretch at the end of 2018. All of that while coming off of a season where there was 0 fans in the stands.

 

Also, we received an intriguing prospect in the upper minors. Woodruff would be able to get us that if he had injury issues and wouldn’t be simply DFA’d.

 

To answer your question on DFA’ing Woodruff, that would be like Woodruff sucking in 2021, getting demoted for the majority of the season. Then, hurting his arm in Spring Training of 2022 and missing that entire season. Then when he comes back at the All-Star break in 2023, he struggles and we trade him in the offseason prior to the 2024 season. That’s basically the same timeline we just witnessed with Knebel. At that point, it would be hard to fault the Brewers moving on from him coming off of major surgery and two seasons of no production. And by moving on, I mean getting a prospect out of it. Like we did with Knebel.

[jjfanec]

 

To answer your question on DFA’ing Woodruff, that would be like Woodruff sucking in 2021, getting demoted for the majority of the season. Then, hurting his arm in Spring Training of 2022 and missing that entire season. Then when he comes back at the All-Star break in 2023, he struggles and we trade him in the offseason prior to the 2024 season. That’s basically the same timeline we just witnessed with Knebel. At that point, it would be hard to fault the Brewers moving on from him coming off of major surgery and two seasons of no production. And by moving on, I mean getting a prospect out of it. Like we did with Knebel.

 

Not to mention a starting pitchers is way more valuable than a reliever.

[AKCheesehead]

Scenario that stinks for Knebel but great for us: he ends up out or ineffective the rest of the year and next year we sign him at a bargain and then he performs for the Brewers.

[PeaveyFury]

Are we truly making a determination based on 4.1 IP? This used to be the haven of 'small sample size'.... seems far more reasonable to wait and see if Corey makes it through the next few months effective and healthy before we make a determination.

 

Reposting for effect. I wish Corey the best, but a nice reminder that 4 innings means absolutely nothing vs. the big picture.

 

 

So you’d cut Woodruff loose if he blew out his elbow tomorrow? Knebel is an all-star. He had TJ surgery. 80% of pitchers will have a major arm injury at some point. It was a cost cutting measure plain and simple, people can debate that all day long with both sides having merit. Sniping with “told ya so” is the lowest form of debate.

 

Complaining or drawing any kind of conclusion based on a small sample size is the lowest form of fanbase complaining. We've historically tried to avoid that here. Just disappointing that we've trended away from that level, I guess.

[rickh150]

Reposting for effect. I wish Corey the best, but a nice reminder that 4 innings means absolutely nothing vs. the big picture.

 

 

So you’d cut Woodruff loose if he blew out his elbow tomorrow? Knebel is an all-star. He had TJ surgery. 80% of pitchers will have a major arm injury at some point. It was a cost cutting measure plain and simple, people can debate that all day long with both sides having merit. Sniping with “told ya so” is the lowest form of debate.

 

Complaining or drawing any kind of conclusion based on a small sample size is the lowest form of fanbase complaining. We've historically tried to avoid that here. Just disappointing that we've trended away from that level, I guess.

 

Told ya so is lower. Also, since when are we judging Knebel by 4 innings? If it’s 4 innings this year and his entire Brewers career, then, yeah, I agree. I was disappointed that we got rid of him for little and it still bothers me a bit, even with the injury, especially when we threw money at Bradley late.

[PeaveyFury]

Also, since when are we judging Knebel by 4 innings? If it’s 4 innings this year and his entire Brewers career, then, yeah, I agree.

 

How about his recent Brewer career? So bad at one point in 2018 that he was sent to the minors, injured all of 2019, and horrible in 2020. Who could possibly have envisioned that claiming 'trade lost' after 4.1 innings might prove to be unwise?

[NYChez]

Also, since when are we judging Knebel by 4 innings? If it’s 4 innings this year and his entire Brewers career, then, yeah, I agree.

 

How about his recent Brewer career? So bad at one point in 2018 that he was sent to the minors, injured all of 2019, and horrible in 2020. Who could possibly have envisioned that claiming 'trade lost' after 4.1 innings might prove to be unwise?

I choose to remember 2018 Knebel for his lights-out dominance in the postseason: 2 hits allowed in 10 innings.

[areacodes]

Reposting for effect. I wish Corey the best, but a nice reminder that 4 innings means absolutely nothing vs. the big picture.

 

So you’d cut Woodruff loose if he blew out his elbow tomorrow? Knebel is an all-star. He had TJ surgery. 80% of pitchers will have a major arm injury at some point. It was a cost cutting measure plain and simple, people can debate that all day long with both sides having merit. Sniping with “told ya so” is the lowest form of debate.

 

Complaining or drawing any kind of conclusion based on a small sample size is the lowest form of fanbase complaining. We've historically tried to avoid that here. Just disappointing that we've trended away from that level, I guess.

 

Told ya so is lower. Also, since when are we judging Knebel by 4 innings? If it’s 4 innings this year and his entire Brewers career, then, yeah, I agree. I was disappointed that we got rid of him for little and it still bothers me a bit, even with the injury, especially when we threw money at Bradley late.

 

Eh, I didn’t think there was too much “told ya so” in Peavey’s post - if he wanted to go that route he could have after Knebel gave up 2 runs his outing prior to getting hurt. But there was no thread bump by him. His comment seemed more of a reminder, as he pointed out, to BF.net’s history of less hot takes over a small set of data.

 

On the otherhand, there were a handful of posters willing to continue their narrative of this move based on only a few innings. On April 9th, after Knebel had thrown just 3.1 innings this year, we had posters reiterate what a dumb move/bad decision it was and taking shots at the Brewers for being cheap.

[sveumrules]

It was a cost cutting measure plain and simple, people can debate that all day long with both sides having merit.

 

Except it wasn't a cost cutting measure.

 

Brewers 2021 payroll was right in line with the pre-pandemic 2020 figure.

 

It was a matter of resource allocation.

 

Stearns & Company thought five million would be better spent on a starting 3B & starting pitcher versus a reliever third in line for high leverage innings.

[homer]

Derrick Tumbow was an all star.

[rickh150]

It was a cost cutting measure plain and simple, people can debate that all day long with both sides having merit.

 

Except it wasn't a cost cutting measure.

 

Brewers 2021 payroll was right in line with the pre-pandemic 2020 figure.

 

It was a matter of resource allocation.

 

Stearns & Company thought five million would be better spent on a starting 3B & starting pitcher versus a reliever third in line for high leverage innings.

 

Of course it was a cost cutting measure. Of course. If he was a much lower number, there is no trade.

[HiAndTight]

Also, since when are we judging Knebel by 4 innings? If it’s 4 innings this year and his entire Brewers career, then, yeah, I agree.

 

How about his recent Brewer career? So bad at one point in 2018 that he was sent to the minors, injured all of 2019, and horrible in 2020. Who could possibly have envisioned that claiming 'trade lost' after 4.1 innings might prove to be unwise?

I choose to remember 2018 Knebel for his lights-out dominance in the postseason: 2 hits allowed in 10 innings.

 

 

Or the 16 1/3 IP after they gave him a break to re-group(Which is what everyone understood it was at the time) and he came back and struck out 33 while allowing 5H and 3BB. Even in this 2018 in which he struggled SO badly he was sent down, he had an XFIP of 2.40

 

I also see more people chastising those who claim we lost the trade than those who actually said we lost the trade.

[HiAndTight]

Eh, I didn’t think there was too much “told ya so” in Peavey’s post - if he wanted to go that route he could have after Knebel gave up 2 runs his outing prior to getting hurt. But there was no thread bump by him. His comment seemed more of a reminder, as he pointed out, to BF.net’s history of less hot takes over a small set of data.

 

On the otherhand, there were a handful of posters willing to continue their narrative of this move based on only a few innings. On April 9th, after Knebel had thrown just 3.1 innings this year, we had posters reiterate what a dumb move/bad decision it was and taking shots at the Brewers for being cheap.

 

That was about as much of a "told ya so," post as you can get. Coming back after Knebel goes on the DL and repeating what you'd previously said?

 

Coming back after he gave up 2 runs wouldn't have been much of a told ya so given his entire argument was you can't look at his results based on 3.1 IP...which I don't think was ever the basis for the complaints we'd basically given Knebel away.

[jjfanec]

 

Or the 16 1/3 IP after they gave him a break to re-group(Which is what everyone understood it was at the time) and he came back and struck out 33 while allowing 5H and 3BB. Even in this 2018 in which he struggled SO badly he was sent down, he had an XFIP of 2.40

 

I also see more people chastising those who claim we lost the trade than those who actually said we lost the trade.

 

What year are the bolded numbers referencing?

[jjfanec]

Eh, I didn’t think there was too much “told ya so” in Peavey’s post - if he wanted to go that route he could have after Knebel gave up 2 runs his outing prior to getting hurt. But there was no thread bump by him. His comment seemed more of a reminder, as he pointed out, to BF.net’s history of less hot takes over a small set of data.

 

On the otherhand, there were a handful of posters willing to continue their narrative of this move based on only a few innings. On April 9th, after Knebel had thrown just 3.1 innings this year, we had posters reiterate what a dumb move/bad decision it was and taking shots at the Brewers for being cheap.

 

That was about as much of a "told ya so," post as you can get. Coming back after Knebel goes on the DL and repeating what you'd previously said?

 

Coming back after he gave up 2 runs wouldn't have been much of a told ya so given his entire argument was you can't look at his results based on 3.1 IP...which I don't think was ever the basis for the complaints we'd basically given Knebel away.

 

The argument from many has been that were pro trade has been

1. Knebel cost too much for a reliever with question marks especially given the Brewers payroll and what role Knebel would play in our bullpen

2. Those question marks include injury history

3. And whether he is still a really good relief pitcher

 

After the first month of the season Knebel is hurt again and likely out through the all star break according to reports. His stuff looked good to great right off the bat. He struggled his last two appearances which could both be attributed to injury.

 

The argument can go on all year but right now those who thought Knebel was not worth the risk have some valid points. Those who think his upside was worth holding on to probably do as well but the injury sure muddles that. But the injury question was always a part of the equation

[PeaveyFury]

Coming back after he gave up 2 runs wouldn't have been much of a told ya so given his entire argument was you can't look at his results based on 3.1 IP...which I don't think was ever the basis for the complaints we'd basically given Knebel away.

 

Go back about 3 pages in this thread and you'll see that it absolutely was.

 

In summary, I prefer 'hot take accountability' than 'I told you so', but I guess it's fair to call a spade a spade. When you formulate a conclusion like 'Knebel is back to his dominant old self, how could we just give him away' after 4 innings, it's very likely that's going to look like a bad conclusion at some point. The argument was further laid out as to why in Knebel's case it was even MORE likely that it would end up looking like a bad conclusion. But, and as shown over the past few days, I've also discovered that when people are held accountable for using faulty logic to come to a bad conclusion, they really don't like that.

 

Small samples mean nothing. And, the Brewers have had their thought process proven correct in this case- they didn't have the luxury to have Knebel have a season where, at $5million, he oscillates between dominant, hurt, and ineffective (or some combination of the three). The Dodgers did have that luxury, hence the trade. And now, despite a really great 5 initial IP (followed by a couple not so great IP, but we won't go into that), they're paying him to sit on the IL well into the summer based on the current reports.

[adambr2]

Tough break for Corey either way. Seems like a great guy, gets taken down with TJ, has to make it all the way back and now this. Really seems like him and Jimmy got a raw deal although I suppose that's just baseball. (Though who knows where Jimmy's career and bank account is now if he gets drafted by an AL team) I only wish they had ended up somewhere other than on the Dodgers so it would be easier to root for their comebacks and success.

[homer]

"Cost Cutting" implies one thing. Paying commensurate to value is something else. If the Brewers thought Feyereisen or Rasmussen were going to fill the Knebel roll just fine then why pay a guy $5 million when you can pay someone else less than $1 million to do the same thing? Now if you think they didn't get enough in return that's a different story.

 

I'd be curious to know how many 7th inning guys are making $5 million or more a year. Chris Martin is an 8th inning guy. He makes $7 million. Betances has been more of an 8th inning guy. He makes $6 million.

 

I may be missing someone but a quick glance at this list and it appears to me that Knebel is the highest paid non closer non 8th inning guy on the list.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/relief-pitcher/

 

edit: Archie Bradley makes more...and so does half the Dodger bullpen. Looks like a few guys were signed as closers or 8th inning types but either stunk or got hurt

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

"Cost Cutting" implies one thing. Paying commensurate to value is something else. If the Brewers thought Feyereisen or Rasmussen were going to fill the Knebel roll just fine then why pay a guy $5 million when you can pay someone else less than $1 million to do the same thing? Now if you think they didn't get enough in return that's a different story.

 

I think this is spot on. This is a case where the Brewers determined that the odds of Knebel finding his 2017 form again were long enough to make it not worth the risk. That isn't necessarily "cost cutting", although I suppose if you squint hard enough, you can see a correlation between the two ideas.

[KCBrewerfan34]

This wasn’t cost cutting. They spent on a bat (Bradley). Early on not a wise choice.