Vogelbach signs with Brewers 1.4 million

[MrTPlush]

He was a fun replacement last season when things were going wrong with Smoak, but I think we all know that in 2021, he will come crashing back down to reality, and by June, he'll be gone.

 

What do you think reality is?

 

In his lone full season, 2019, he posted a 111 OPS+. Entering 2020 he was projected for a 121 OPS+. He posted a 98 OPS+ in 2020, but it was only 136 PAs, he was unlucky by xwOBA & his walk/K rates were steady so I don't see his projection going down too much for 2021, maybe to around a 115 OPS+.

 

For reference, here are league average 1B/DH wRC+ the last three years...

 

1B | 2018: 108 | 2019 : 111 | 2020: 108

DH | 2018: 110 | 2019: 104 | 2020: 97

 

Depends...one big thing is how much he is facing LHP. The more he doesn't face LHP the more you will inflate his numbers to look good. He was absolutely atrocious against LHP in 2019 and in 2020 he only faced them 12 times. Which speaking of that I keep seeing his comparison to "league average". Are you really league average if you are a platoon player and are hanging around league average stats? Seems like that would actually be below average.

 

The other thing is he doesn't really have much of a track record. His numbers in 2019 are only good because he posted a 1.195 OPS in April, outside of that his was a lot more human. In the second half of 2019 he barely posted a .600 OPS and obviously was off to a terrible start in 2020 before his hot streak. (He did hold his own in May/June/July of 2019...but merely average at best)

 

Real streaky so far in his career, which despite a lot of seasons isn't a huge sample size of time outside of 2019.

[monty57]

Sure, you could look at it that way. Maybe not the most accurate if you want to make the postseason though.

 

We aren't going to get very far if we are loading up the roster with guys 'worth' their salary, but are 1.5 WAR (or worse) players and absolutely miserable defensively. I don't think Jack thinks the price is bad, but that the player isn't really that good...especially at 500+ ABs.

 

You could make the most +value roster in MLB and win 60 games...is that what we want? Probably not.

 

But that's not at all what they're doing. They have "core" players in guys like Yelich, Hiura, Burnes, Cain, and Woodruff. We don't have the funds to fill the roster with star players, so we need other guys to fill out the roster. If we can get league average out of these guys without spending too much money, that's probably the best we can hope for.

 

I'd love it if we had more players coming up from the farm to fill more holes, but we've been trading prospects to help the MLB team over the past few years. After a while that comes back and bites you. Without league minimum guys coming from the farm, you need to pay more for all the guys, including the "filler" players.

 

We now have C, 1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF, RF covered, so hopefully by saving some money in the deals made yesterday, we can find another "core player," or at least an above average guy, to play 3B.

 

Problem is one of those core players was horrendous last year (Hiura) and the other one probably got his AARP card in the mail while he didn't play this year. It would also help if Vogelbach was average...but he is really far from it. You hope his bat is average, but playing the field he is definitely not an average player. Don't even give get me started about RF and SS.

 

Not sure if I would call the offseason a massive failure if we fill up the offense with similar garbage we had in 2020 because of the disastrous offseason/financials...but I could certainly see why someone would be unhappy with Vogelbach getting 500+ ABs next year...it probably is not a good sign to the overall offenses success.

 

I guess I don't get where you're going. You said "You could make the most +value roster in MLB and win 60 games...is that what we want? Probably not." and I said that wasn't what we were doing.

 

That many of our players underperformed offensively last year isn't because they were all inexpensive "value finds." Our biggest underperformer was probably Yelich, and Stearns had just signed him to one of the most expensive contracts in sports history. And yes, Cain is old, but he was our most expensive free agent signing ever, so he wasn't a "value player." You don't like Garcia? He wasn't a value signing, we outbid everyone for him.

 

Everyone knows that we need guys like Yelich and Hiura to get back to where they were or it could be another rough season for the offense. We underperformed expectations at almost every position. That can't be fixed by simply spending money on free agents. We all have to hope that players have "positive regression" and play like they're capable of.

 

Vogelbach is "filler." He's probably average at DH, and slightly below average at 1B due to poor defense. As I've said repeatedly, my hope is that by getting someone who is around average for "only" $1.4M, that could save some money so that they can sign a good third baseman. If they can sign someone like La Stella because they didn't overspend on a first baseman, I'll be okay with it.

 

Bottom line is, we need "cheap" players to allow us to afford the higher priced guys like Yelich, Cain, and Garcia. If they don't hold their weight, and we expect our "filler" players to carry the team, we're going to be in trouble.

[PeaveyFury]

Depends...one big thing is how much he is facing LHP. The more he doesn't face LHP the more you will inflate his numbers to look good.

 

I guess that's the benefit of having the DH, in that as long as you have a more viable bat to hit vs. LHP (ala Ryan Braun), you literally can play to his strengths and avoid his weaknesses. As previously pointed out, if you can get 1.5-2 WAR out of him as a DH vs. RHP only, that's pretty good comparatively.

 

If, however, they're re-signing him with the intention of him seeing extended time at 1B, then I probably shift to your camp.

[SeaBass]

 

In his lone full season he posted a 111 wRC+ & 1.6 WAR. If he can approximate those numbers in 2021 it would be perfectly cromulent production for 1.4 million dollars.

 

Don't really have anything to add. I just wanted to commend you on the use of the word cromulent.

 

My question is how long has he been holding on to that word to use?...

He actually uses it somewhat regularly. I am a fan. Without searching I think I can remember 3 fairly recent uses of this word in his posts. To date I haven't been baller enough to work it into my own conversations but it is a goal.

[Jopal78]

In his only full season as a starter, Vogelbach hit 30 homeruns and drew nearly 100 walks. Additionally he’s 27 years old and is a former Top 75 draft pick.

 

Pedigree, prior success at big league level, youth and cost controlled. If this isn’t the type of player you take a shot with in filling out a roster, who is?

[monty57]

In his lone full season, 2019, he posted a 111 OPS+. Entering 2020 he was projected for a 121 OPS+. He posted a 98 OPS+ in 2020, but it was only 136 PAs, he was unlucky by xwOBA & his walk/K rates were steady so I don't see his projection going down too much for 2021, maybe to around a 115 OPS+.

 

For reference, here are league average 1B/DH wRC+ the last three years...

 

1B | 2018: 108 | 2019 : 111 | 2020: 108

DH | 2018: 110 | 2019: 104 | 2020: 97

 

Depends...one big thing is how much he is facing LHP. The more he doesn't face LHP the more you will inflate his numbers to look good. He was absolutely atrocious against LHP in 2019 and in 2020 he only faced them 12 times. Which speaking of that I keep seeing his comparison to "league average". Are you really league average if you are a platoon player and are hanging around league average stats? Seems like that would actually be below average.

 

The other thing is he doesn't really have much of a track record. His numbers in 2019 are only good because he posted a 1.195 OPS in April, outside of that his was a lot more human. In the second half of 2019 he barely posted a .600 OPS and obviously was off to a terrible start in 2020 before his hot streak. (He did hold his own in May/June/July of 2019...but merely average at best)

 

Real streaky so far in his career, which despite a lot of seasons isn't a huge sample size of time outside of 2019.

 

Left-handed hitters who don't do well against left-handed pitching is not that uncommon. Thankfully, most pitchers are right-handed, and for only $1.4M we can afford a right-handed bench bat to play when a lefty is on the mound. That's far from a unique situation.

 

You are correct that he doesn't have a long MLB track record. With that knowledge, how can you be sure that he'll "come crashing back down to reality and be gone by June?" He might hit well, he might not. That's why he's a complementary player we have for $1.4M. It's probably not correct to assume that his bat will be great or horrible over the next 162 games. I'm assuming he'll be around a "league average" 1B/DH bat with below average defense at 1B, since that's what he's done so far.

 

I'm not thrilled at the idea of seeing his defense at 1B for a season, especially when he's paired with Hiura's defense on the right side of the infield. We still don't know about the DH in the NL, and I'm willing to bet Stearns has more insight into what's happening there than anyone on this site. In their annual "top 50 FAs," MLBtraderumors has Carlos Santana going to the Brewers for $6M. Because we now have some positions filled fairly cheaply (including Vogelbach), that's still an option. So is someone like La Stella, where the assumption is 2 years/$14M.

 

I don't know how much money the Brewers have to spend, but by making these cheap signings, we might be able to upgrade elsewhere. Nothing's done in a vacuum.

[pacopete4]

He was a fun replacement last season when things were going wrong with Smoak, but I think we all know that in 2021, he will come crashing back down to reality, and by June, he'll be gone.

[sveumrules]

 

Don't really have anything to add. I just wanted to commend you on the use of the word cromulent.

 

My question is how long has he been holding on to that word to use?...

 

He actually uses it somewhat regularly. I am a fan. Without searching I think I can remember 3 fairly recent uses of this word in his posts. To date I haven't been baller enough to work it into my own conversations but it is a goal.

 

Haha. I definitely try to drop a "cromulent" or "a couple two tree" into the conversation every now & again.

[djoctagone]

i'm glad he's back because it gives me someone to think about every time someone posts "lightening in a bottle".

Is that a good thing?

yes. i have been in need of an association more contemporary than wes helms on a salad.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

If the Brewers can get Santana for 6M, then vogelbach can be a nice complimentary player. Not a straight platoon, but just against tough RH pitchers or be the DH if that happens. Seems odd to be have folks complain about this signing this early in the offseason.

[Underachiever]

To date I haven't been baller enough to work it into my own conversations but it is a goal.

That is a perfectly cromulent goal.

[JohnBriggs12]

The worry about giving an unproductive Vogelbach 500 AB's is a red herring. No way he gets close to that many if he's not productive. A $1.4 million contract guarantees him nothing beyond a couple months of presence in the lineup. See Justin Smoak. He appeared to benefit from adjustments he made after getting released last year. It was a big wake up call for him. If he takes the approach he did with the Brewers the final month, he'll be fine.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t think anyone is worried about him being Justin Smoak. It’s the fact he could have an OPS in the .700-.750 range and basically be replacement level at 1B...which is probably not going to help us make the postseason.

 

If he gets his OPS around .800 he can probably be a solid contributor...hopefully at DH, but I’m sure it would be fine at 1B considering our budget. I guess I can’t totally speak for his defense at 1B for an entire year, but eeessh...that could be rough even for an .800 OPS.

[pacopete4]

It'd be great if he was spending the next few months getting into the best shape of his life so he's not a defensive liability and could actually run around the bases a bit.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It will be interesting to see if the change in approach he mentioned is really the cause of his sudden success and if he sticks with it. While his speed caps it over a long season, a guy who hits a ton of line drives to all parts of the field like he did for the Brewers should post a higher batting average than he traditionally has.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers will not be signing Santana, or any other free agent above $2-$3 Million. Signings like Vogelbach are the Brewers best hope at fielding a competitive team, as well as trades.

 

The most likely trade scenarios are players like Hader or Garcia for prospects, or Cain plus money for prospects. The chances of a significant trade that helps the MLB roster is slim

 

The Brewers need core players like Yelich & Hiura to return to their top form, and younger players like Urias to take the next step. And they need Burnes, Woodruff, Williams etc to stay healthy.

 

A lot “ifs” involved. So, yes, signing Vogelbach makes sense. Mark is unlikely to budge on his plan to significantly decrease the budget. Maybe a “wait and see” on bringing in more expensive players at the trade deadline, if there is a full season, and if fans can attend.

[wntrtxn21]

The Brewers will not be signing Santana, or any other free agent above $2-$3 Million. Signings like Vogelbach are the Brewers best hope at fielding a competitive team, as well as trades.

 

The most likely trade scenarios are players like Hader or Garcia for prospects, or Cain plus money for prospects. The chances of a significant trade that helps the MLB roster is slim

 

The Brewers need core players like Yelich & Hiura to return to their top form, and younger players like Urias to take the next step. And they need Burnes, Woodruff, Williams etc to stay healthy.

 

A lot “ifs” involved. So, yes, signing Vogelbach makes sense. Mark is unlikely to budge on his plan to significantly decrease the budget. Maybe a “wait and see” on bringing in more expensive players at the trade deadline, if there is a full season, and if fans can attend.

 

I think you're wrong about no FAs above $3M and trading for prospects. MA knows the Central is up for grabs this year. He needs MLB talent to fill huge holes. If Hader is traded I believe it will be for an MLB or MLB ready 1B or 3B. Then a lower cost ($5-8M) FA for the other spot. That would still reduce the payroll and hopefully keep the Crew competitive for the division title. You're right about a lot of "ifs" and no one knows until it happens. Time will tell.

[Jopal78]

 

The most likely trade scenarios are players like Hader or Garcia for prospects, or Cain plus money for prospects. The chances of a significant trade that helps the MLB roster is slim

 

.

 

Nobody is giving the Brewers anything of value for Garcia or Cain.

 

Just last week, there were comparable players who were non-tendered over less than those two are scheduled to make in 2021. Not to mention, the Brewers have no history of including cash in trades, and in a year where they took a huge revenue hit, they're just not going to do it.

[MrTPlush]

 

The most likely trade scenarios are players like Hader or Garcia for prospects, or Cain plus money for prospects. The chances of a significant trade that helps the MLB roster is slim

 

.

 

Nobody is giving the Brewers anything of value for Garcia or Cain.

 

Just last week, there were comparable players who were non-tendered over less than those two are scheduled to make in 2021. Not to mention, the Brewers have no history of including cash in trades, and in a year where they took a huge revenue hit, they're just not going to do it.

 

You would probably have to eat half their salaries just to get a bag of balls.

 

I think people forget the Avi contract is backloaded and has a big $2mil buyout on the option. He basically costs $12.75mil next year.

[MrTPlush]

 

The most likely trade scenarios are players like Hader or Garcia for prospects, or Cain plus money for prospects. The chances of a significant trade that helps the MLB roster is slim

 

.

 

Nobody is giving the Brewers anything of value for Garcia or Cain.

 

Just last week, there were comparable players who were non-tendered over less than those two are scheduled to make in 2021. Not to mention, the Brewers have no history of including cash in trades, and in a year where they took a huge revenue hit, they're just not going to do it.

 

You would probably have to eat half their salaries just to get a bag of balls

[CheezWizHed]

Probably a better chance of moving Cain/Garcia at the trade deadline if they are playing well and BB attendance has rebounded.

[DR28]

So not sure what we're gonna do with Vogelbach now since teams have been told to operate under assumption there won't be a universal DH in 21.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So not sure what we're gonna do with Vogelbach now since teams have been told to operate under assumption there won't be a universal DH in 21.

 

Power bat off the bench and part-time 1B when guys like Woodruff and Burnes are on the mound.

[brewerfan82]

He's still a nice piece to have on a 26-man roster, even in a limited role at 1.4M. He may also be a nice trade chip at that price for an AL team. Regardless, he gives them some nice flexibility/options at this stage in the offseason.

[MrTPlush]

So not sure what we're gonna do with Vogelbach now since teams have been told to operate under assumption there won't be a universal DH in 21.

 

I am guessing Stearns was probably somewhat aware of this when offering the contract.