Non-Tender Candidates

[Lathund]

Regarding pitch framing: Seeing the Narvaez was considered horrible at this previously and suddenly became great at it last year, how legit is this of a "skill"? How much is reliant on the pitchers? Or is it easily changed by basic coaching? Just seems dubious that it was so easily altered by him coming to Milwaukee.

 

At least the Baseball Prospectus catching metric (The one which workings I have looked into) separates the catcher and pitcher (And umpire and batter, but that effect is smaller) contribution to extra strike calls. The CSAA (Called Strikes Above Average) stat is calculated for both pitchers and catchers. Someone like Zach Davies generates a lot of extra called strikes, but it's credited to him and not the catcher.

 

It is very much a coachable skill, but it does a bit odd that if he could pick it up this fast, that his other teams didn't do the same. Then again, Narvaez (1st), Pina and Nottingham were all in the top 25 by BPs catching defense metric, and both Grandal and Kratz rated very highly when they were here (Though clearly they were good at it when they arrived too). So it would seem that the Brewers do something right in this regard. Issue with coaching receiving skills can often be, from what I've heard at least, that the stance and techniques used to frame pitches well are often not the ones that help you block well. I think for Grandal for example, part of his issues with passed balls (Often exaggerated, but they do exist) comes from being such an excellent framer. So it can be hard to coach one without affecting the other.

 

As sveumrules pointed out, that while there would be larger error bars due to it being a short season, it's still a stat that stabilizes quickly due to just how many opportunities there are. So maybe he truly was the 5th or 7th best pitch framer in the league instead of the very best, But I don't think there is any doubt that he truly improved, just a matter of how much.

[Eye Black]

From Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

 

These 17 arbitration-eligible players could soon join full and frozen free agent market

[PeaveyFury]

Some very interesting potential names there, with the obvious caveat of what it would cost to sign them if non-tendered.

[JohnBriggs12]

Probably the most interesting name on Nightengale's list is Aguilar. MLB trade rumors doesn't think there's any chance the Marlins would non-tender him. I guess we'll see but it would certainly be worth looking into a reunion with a very popular former Brewer.

[pacopete4]

I'll take a crack at Johan Camargo for the Brewers.

[PeaveyFury]

Probably the most interesting name on Nightengale's list is Aguilar. MLB trade rumors doesn't think there's any chance the Marlins would non-tender him. I guess we'll see but it would certainly be worth looking into a reunion with a very popular former Brewer.

 

Aguilar is now two years removed from his first really productive season and is over 30. Other than the fact that he's a popular former Brewer, I don't know if he's worth devoting potentially limited financial resources to this offseason, unless he's interesting in coming back to Milwaukee at a discount.

[wibadgers23]

Eddie Rosario would be interesting but he’d probably be too expensive and there’s nowhere to play him in the outfield.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It will be interesting to see what kind of a market there is for bounce back candidates. A couple of those pitchers hold some intrigue if cheap, but how cheap will they really be?

[Eye Black]

Eddie Rosario would be interesting but he’d probably be too expensive and there’s nowhere to play him in the outfield.

I’ve always been high on Eddie Rosario’s talent, all the way back to his days patrolling both the infield (2B) and outfield at Pohlman Field in Beloit. For mostly selfish reasons I’d really enjoy watching him play for the Brewers.

[PeaveyFury]

It would be truly hilarious to watch the Yankees non-tender one of the best offensive catchers in the game at 28 years old due to financial constraints. Sanchez admittedly had a (very)bad year in 2020, but he's a 3-WAR catcher historically and in his physical prime. Trading for him as a rebound candidate may not be as appealing, but if the cost was just money rather than players too, it'd be hard not to have interest.

[adambr2]

Knebel isn't getting tendered. 5M or so is just too absurdly high for where the reliever market sits given where he's at right now. The arbitration system has priced him over his FA value. I would have just claimed Brad Hand for a few extra million rather than pay Knebel again just as a flyer.

 

Strictly my opinion, of course. Of course just when I think I have a good gauge on the markets then the Braves throw 11M at Drew Smyly and I have to re-question everything.

[nate82]

If Gray, Sanchez, Camargo and Barnes get non-tendered I would go after all of them.

 

Gray as the #4 or #5 starter, Sanchez at 1B and 3rd Catcher, Camargo at 3B and then Barnes in the bullpen to replace Knebel or sign Knebel after non-tendering him.

 

I suspect most of the non-tenders will resign with their original teams for lower amounts.

 

If the Cubs non-tender Bryant he will sign with the Nationals. Schwarber may also be another option at 1B not sure what it would cost to get him.

[brewcrewdue80]

Seems a list of 3b potential fillins exist there. Jon Gray is going to have a lot of suitors.

Maikel Franco is a guy who was supposed to be a stud and just never got there. 28, had a solid year last season away from Philly. Maybe making progress another year removed from Philly? 2yr deal with option would seem doable for 29-30 seasons.

 

And there goes Rosario waived within last hour.

 

You can take Kirriloff off the trade idea.

[Eye Black]

From The Athletic, Non-tender is the night: Notable candidates, from the expected to the shocking

 

Some of the categories and notable players discussed are listed below.

 

Decent players who might be cut loose

Eddie Rosario, 29, OF

José Martínez, 32, OF/1B

Hansel Robles, 30, RHP

Travis Shaw, 30, 1B/3B

Corey Knebel, 29, RHP

 

Keep an eye on …

Tyler Anderson, 30, LHP

Jesús Aguilar, 30, 1B

Matt Barnes, 30, RHP

Ji-Man Choi, 29, 1B

Alex Claudio, 28, LHP

Vince Velasquez, 28, RHP

Jon Gray, 29, RHP

Carlos Rodón, 27, LHP

Tony Kemp, 29, OF/2B

 

Sound the alarm if …

Tommy Pham, 32, OF

Kris Bryant, 28, 3B

Kyle Schwarber, 27, OF

Gary Sánchez, 28, C

 

 

Anyway, the deadline is tonight at 7:00pm so I guess we will find out soon enough.

[Outlander]

I find it hard to believe the Cubs would ever non tender Bryant. Imagine there would be teams willing to trade for him and pay his salary for one year.

[TURBO]

 

And there goes Rosario waived within last hour.

 

You can take Kirriloff off the trade idea.

 

I'd love to get Rosaio for a year, but the team claiming him has to pay his full 2021 salary, correct? If so, that pretty much leaves us out. 9.6 million for Rosaio when we are already shelling out 10 million for worthless Garcia just isn't going to happen. Yelich, Cain and Rosario would be a nice looking OF for 2021.

 

I don't think Kirriloff was ever a remote possibility anyway. He is pretty much untouchable, and even if he was an option, I don't think we have the guns to get him.

[TURBO]

Sound the alarm if …

 

Kyle Schwarber, 27, OF

 

 

The only reason I'd want him is to torment the Cubs...I'm not a fan of him otherwise.

[Jopal78]

I find it hard to believe the Cubs would ever non tender Bryant. Imagine there would be teams willing to trade for him and pay his salary for one year.

 

He's projected to earn in excess of 18 million dollars, and is determined to elect free agency. Also, the Cubs may have been one of the hardest hit teams in terms of revenue loss in the '20 season. The restaurants, bars, and hotel they own around the stadium all sat vacant. Their television network got off to a rocky start with Comcast (the largest provider in the area) not carrying until right before the start of the July 2020 season and Dish TV (the 3rd largest provider) never coming to an agreement to carry their network. The Cubs likely are looking to pare back payroll and Bryant makes sense because of the above two reason.

 

Of course, the Cubs would love to trade Bryant but that is also problematic. 3/4 of the MLB teams will have no interest in Bryant due to his likely 18+ million dollar contract. There is no guarantee at this point the typical big spenders will fork over piles of money this offseason either. Moreover, will teams make the determination that 18 million dollars to improve their team for 162 games is preferred as opposed to, for example, spending that money on two cheaper players to improve their team across multiple seasons.

 

Even if teams were all over Bryant, what would be the value? A great player, but he has missed 101 games over the last three years with injuries (by comparison Ryan Braun missed 80 games the last three seasons), and he will certainly be a one year piece. The reality is he may not bring back much in a trade if the perception is the Cubs are determined to move him, and the interest in acquisition is tepid.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

And there goes Rosario waived within last hour.

 

You can take Kirriloff off the trade idea.

 

I'd love to get Rosaio for a year, but the team claiming him has to pay his full 2021 salary, correct? If so, that pretty much leaves us out. 9.6 million for Rosaio when we are already shelling out 10 million for worthless Garcia just isn't going to happen. Yelich, Cain and Rosario would be a nice looking OF for 2021.

 

I don't think Kirriloff was ever a remote possibility anyway. He is pretty much untouchable, and even if he was an option, I don't think we have the guns to get him.

 

 

It seems that way. I think I read Rosario was possibly in line towards 12mil in arb. I do wonder on waiving him how the arb works and tendering a contract. A claim should take him past the 7pm deadline so a team couldn't tender him in time right? I thought about posing this in my comment before but thought maybe others more knowledgeable would chime in by now.

 

I didn't realize Kirriloff was planned more towards OF use vs a 1b only. Makes more sense to hold on to him with the flexibility.

[Jopal78]

It seems that way. I think I read Rosario was possibly in line towards 12mil in arb. I do wonder on waiving him how the arb works and tendering a contract. A claim should take him past the 7pm deadline so a team couldn't tender him in time right? I thought about posing this in my comment before but thought maybe others more knowledgeable would chime in by now.

 

Outright waivers would remove him from the 40 man roster immediately, maybe the Twins have waiver claim or claims that are pending, and this way they prevent teams in their own division like Detroit and Kansas City from improving simply by claiming him.

[nate82]

There has been some interest in Bryant by the Nationals, Red Sox, and the Dodgers. The Nationals have reached out to the Cubs in trade talks for Bryant but nothing came of that. The Cubs are probably asking for a decent prospect in return and the teams interested are not willing to give up said prospect(s). I believe the Nationals, Red Sox and the Dodgers are all waiting to see if he gets non-tendered and will go from there but I don't see them working out a trade as the salary will be higher than what they could sign him for if the Cubs non-tender him. I think he would get $12-15m for the season from either the Nationals or the Red Sox.

 

I am not sure why Bryant is in the sound the alarm category or even in a shocked category if he gets non-tendered. To me it is not all that shocking and I am almost expecting the Cubs to part ways with Bryant at this point.

[Eye Black]

I am not sure why Bryant is in the sound the alarm category or even in a shocked category if he gets non-tendered. To me it is not all that shocking and I am almost expecting the Cubs to part ways with Bryant at this point.

I think he's in the "sound the alarm" category because the optics of a large market team non-tendering a former MVP, three-time All-Star, and long perceived franchise cornerstone player before he's even turned 29 years old would be pretty shocking on the surface. If you dig into it deeper, as many here have done, it makes a lot more sense and wouldn't be considered overly shocking.

[adambr2]

Heyman says Bryant won't be non-tendered.

[Eye Black]

It’s Bob Nightengale, so take it for what it’s worth, but he’s reporting the Cubs will non-tender Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has always seemed like a shaky outfielder, but if he was able to play a passable 1B he’d be an intriguing corner infield option for the Brewers.

[PeaveyFury]

Schwarber is another guy probably best suited to DH if the NL keeps it around. Chicago hasn't used him at 1B since 2017, so I'm not sure if that's indicative of their belief of his ability (or lack thereof) to play the position or just that they had better options there....

 

Seems like a lot of teams are/may be moving on from guys who have solid bats and poor track records in the field. Perhaps that's telling on how they think the DH situation will shake out?