Non-Tender Candidates

[Eye Black]

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs did a great piece on titled, Presenting a Mock Non-Tenderizing.

 

Longenhagen examines each team’s roster and determines their non-tender candidates. He breaks the categories into “Likely”, “Tough Call”, and “Not Likely”. He takes each organizations financial situation into consideration, as well as factors like the Brewers having non-tendered 8 players the past two offseasons (which is a lot).

 

The Brewers are listed as having the highest number of likely non-tenders (most teams have 0-2 “likely” non-tenders listed).

 

Here is the Brewers list from the article:

 

[Eye Black]

Something I did a poor job of highlighting in the OP is this article also provides a look at the non-tender candidates on other teams, so players that eventually could eventually be added to the free agent pool. Some of the players listed as non-tender candidates were already designated for assignment and could be of interest to other teams including: Renato Núñez, Hunter Renfroe, and Trevor Williams.

 

I was surprised to see Renato Núñez get DFA’d by the Orioles, he seems like someone the Brewers should take a closer look at since he could provide a little pop to the corner infield spots.

[DR28]

Something I did a poor job of highlighting in the OP is this article also provides a look at the non-tender candidates on other teams, so players that eventually could eventually be added to the free agent pool. Some of the players listed as non-tender candidates were already designated for assignment and could be of interest to other teams including: Renato Núñez, Hunter Renfroe, and Trevor Williams.

 

I was surprised to see Renato Núñez get DFA’d by the Orioles, he seems like someone the Brewers should take a closer look at since he could provide a little pop to the corner infield spots.

 

Agreed, I would take him as our 1B.

[CheezWizHed]

I was surprised to see Renato Núñez get DFA’d by the Orioles, he seems like someone the Brewers should take a closer look at since he could provide a little pop to the corner infield spots.

 

 

[sarcasm]I don't know if the Brewers would go for him. He bats right handed. [/sarcasm]

[Eye Black]

The Non-Tender deadline is now less then a week away (Wednesday, December 2nd).

 

Let me ask this, assuming Longenhagen is correct that one of Piña or Narvaez is going to be non-tendered, who would you prefer the Brewers keep between the two?

 

As bad as he was in the abbreviated 2020 season, I think Narvaez is probably the more likely choice to stick around. He is nearly 5 years younger, a left handed bat to use in a catching platoon, and he showed significant improvement in his defense and framing.

 

I could also see a scenario where one of them is non-tendered and brought back on a contract (i.e. Claudio last offseason). I also understand being skeptical either will be non-tendered since neither is projected to make more than $3 million in arbitration.

[Brock42]

The Non-Tender deadline is now less then a week away (Wednesday, December 2nd).

 

Let me ask this, assuming Longenhagen is correct that one of Piña or Narvaez is going to be non-tendered, who would you prefer the Brewers keep between the two?

 

As bad as he was in the abbreviated 2020 season, I think Narvaez is probably the more likely choice to stick around. He is nearly 5 years younger, a left handed bat to use in a catching platoon, and he showed significant improvement in his defense and framing.

 

I could also see a scenario where one of them is non-tendered and brought back on a contract (i.e. Claudio last offseason). I also understand being skeptical either will be non-tendered since neither is projected to make more than $3 million in arbitration.

[Brock42]

Sorry, my first post and it didn’t go through. Great thought provoking question! I would tend to lean to Pinà for money savings and leadership/clubhouse presence.

Each one would give equal production IMO although a lefty catcher would be nice.

[sveumrules]

Welcome to the board, Brock42.

 

Agree that it should be a really interesting decision.

 

Narvaez obviously has the higher upside on offense, but was so bad in 2020 he probably won't be projected all that much better than Pina for 2021.

 

Manny is no doubt the better defender, but Narvaez graded out really well by the framing metrics in 2020, so if the Brewers brass believes that is a legit skill change & not just small sample mirage, that evens the gap some with the glove.

 

Ultimately I think it will be Omar vs RHP with the Sherriff for Burnes starts & vs LHP.

[Brock42]

Love the perspectives and all the different points of view!

Been learning from this site for years and finally made the decision to start posting. Sometimes I’m overwhelmed by all the knowledge that so many possess but hopefully I can bring some fresh insights!

[wibadgers23]

The Non-Tender deadline is now less then a week away (Wednesday, December 2nd).

 

Let me ask this, assuming Longenhagen is correct that one of Piña or Narvaez is going to be non-tendered, who would you prefer the Brewers keep between the two?

 

As bad as he was in the abbreviated 2020 season, I think Narvaez is probably the more likely choice to stick around. He is nearly 5 years younger, a left handed bat to use in a catching platoon, and he showed significant improvement in his defense and framing.

 

I could also see a scenario where one of them is non-tendered and brought back on a contract (i.e. Claudio last offseason). I also understand being skeptical either will be non-tendered since neither is projected to make more than $3 million in arbitration.

 

I think it's Narvaez for me. He's younger and has more potential to put up big offensive numbers. I'm comfortable with him and Nottingham as our two catchers. I think Pina gets non-tendered.

[monty57]

I'd keep Narvaez if one of the two is non-tendered.

 

I don't know if I necessarily agree with the argument for non-tendering Knebel: "If the Brewers are listening to offers for Josh Hader, then they're likely non-tendering Knebel at about the same price."

 

If the Brewers think that Knebel can be something like the pitcher that he once was, having him on the roster could be the reason that they are able to trade Hader.

[wntrtxn21]

I'd keep Narvaez if one of the two is non-tendered.

 

I don't know if I necessarily agree with the argument for non-tendering Knebel: "If the Brewers are listening to offers for Josh Hader, then they're likely non-tendering Knebel at about the same price."

 

If the Brewers think that Knebel can be something like the pitcher that he once was, having him on the roster could be the reason that they are able to trade Hader.

 

I like Knebel too, but IF the Brewers are seriously looking at cutting payroll, I think Knebel's estimated $5.1M salary is prohibitive. Same with Gamel, Claudio, and Pina. With glaring holes at 1B and 3B and zero internal options, there just doesn't seem to be the money to keep those guys and fill the holes.

[AKCheesehead]

I hope the Brewers have a really good handle on what they think Knebel is going to be in 2021 performance-wise. He was showing good signs of starting to find it at the end of 2020. If they think that's real, and he can get back to 2017-18 form, I hope they go ahead and keep him. Despite money being tight, he would be very valuable to having an amazing pen and would seem to have in-season trade value as well. I know you're not supposed to be pot committed but I loathe the thought of paying him over 19-20 for the little production he had in 2020, and then not paying him again in 2020 when he's right again.

The thing that troubles me most with this offseason is just having zero idea what financially is in the team's wheelhouse or to what notch they figure to tighten the belt.

[brewcrewdue80]

If the team non-tenders Kneble, they can sign him for a lower contract right? Now the question is, can they negotiate to this before they would non-tender him? Or, is that breaking a rule? Just to be fair Kneble has earned roughly(since I don't know how much he really made for the 2020season) over 10mil in all of his short 227IP over 6years with Milw. One being an outstanding season and the rest basically just average RP. So for example can Milw approach him and say we have to non-tender you. What price does it take to keep you? Or can they not negotiate until the moment he is a FA?

 

Anyway, Stearns may look at the current roster and fill again lightly, maybe keep Kneble with Hader and play for a mid-season trade/minor rebuild year for the team. Kneble at his best is an All Star RP. You would have a big amount of players to trade off as rentals+ a Hader mid-season trade to retool and restock for 2022. Just off of FA potentials after next season is Kneble, Claudio, Pina, Garcia if you don't pick up the option. Narvaez could also be looked at as a trade candidate with a much higher trade value mid-season than what he's at now.

Gamel and Peterson seem locks. Claudio I've been over for a long time, so he'll be kept. Pina seems to be the only one that catches Hader well. I'd keep him around for the defense and maybe you can include him in a Hader deal to a team needing a second catcher.

[Brewers Numbers]

If the team non-tenders Kneble, they can sign him for a lower contract right? Now the question is, can they negotiate to this before they would non-tender him? Or, is that breaking a rule?.

The CBA limits how much you can reduce a salary by. It is 20% of the previous season or 30% of the average of the previous 2 seasons and he could still challenge in arbitration. Any decrease more than that and they would have to non-tender him first and negotiate with him as a free agent.

[MNBrew]

^^Just made this point in the off-season plans thread. Coming off a missed 2019 & a 2020 with a bad month of August (albeit with a good September -- and all of 2020 being small-sample-city!) could Knebel really expect to do better than 80% of his $5.125M salary on the open market if he's non-tendered?

 

Isn't it kind of a known thing that many TJ guys struggle somewhat compared to their previous performance in their first full year back on the mound? This was a shortened year, but still...

 

I think I want him around and it's worth negotiating a $4.1M-ish base with ample incentives for security at the back end of the bullpen.

[Jopal78]

If the team non-tenders Kneble, they can sign him for a lower contract right? Now the question is, can they negotiate to this before they would non-tender him? Or, is that breaking a rule?.

The CBA limits how much you can reduce a salary by. It is 20% of the previous season or 30% of the average of the previous 2 seasons and he could still challenge in arbitration. Any decrease more than that and they would have to non-tender him first and negotiate with him as a free agent.

 

I also think there probably is a fair bit of resentment if a team non-tenders a player because they don’t want to pay what the player is owed pursuant to the mutually agreed upon CBA, and then attempts to sign them as a free agent at a lower price.

 

Money talks, but if they non-tender Knebel he won’t be coming back as a bargain priced free agent

[Eye Black]

MLB Trade Rumors: 2020 Non-Tender Candidates

[MrTPlush]

I’d keep Narvaez. Pina is coming off injury and his ceiling isn’t all that high anyway. I’d roll the dice on Narvaez bouncing back and being at least as good and probably notably better than Pina.

[brewcrewdue80]

MLB Trade Rumors: 2020 Non-Tender Candidates

 

 

Seeing the RH relievers and LH relievers, Kneble and Claudio lead both lists in expected price. So yeah probably non-tendered.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I wonder if we will see another Chase Anderson style trade with Pina if they opt to go with Narvaez and Nottingham. Probably either for another Spanberger type of upper level bat or a lower level flyer pitcher.

[CheezWizHed]

I think Pina is a safer player for 2020, but looking at the long term, he is 33 (turning 34 mid-2021) and Narvaez has the higher upside. Not to mention he is a left-handed hitter (which our current management teams values highly).

 

If I were the GM, I'd bet on Narvaez over Pina personally. Nottingham takes Pina's place as the RH catcher tandem.

 

Regarding pitch framing: Seeing the Narvaez was considered horrible at this previously and suddenly became great at it last year, how legit is this of a "skill"? How much is reliant on the pitchers? Or is it easily changed by basic coaching? Just seems dubious that it was so easily altered by him coming to Milwaukee.

[sveumrules]

Regarding pitch framing: Seeing the Narvaez was considered horrible at this previously and suddenly became great at it last year, how legit is this of a "skill"? How much is reliant on the pitchers? Or is it easily changed by basic coaching? Just seems dubious that it was so easily altered by him coming to Milwaukee.

 

That's the big question. There's so many variables at play it's hard to isolate them in order to suss out what is real & what is noise.

 

One thing that would lend credence to the possibility Omar was maybe "coached up" on his receiving technique is that even though it was a short season, he still had 965 pitches in what StatCast defines as the shadow zone, that is a lot of opportunities.

 

StatCast breaks the shadow zone into eight quadrants, with Narvaez seeing improvement in seven of the eight quadrants from 2019 to 2020. Outside/inside is relative to a RH batter...

 

Zone 11 (High/Inside) | 2019: 19.7% | 2020: 28.4% (+8.7%)

Zone 12 (High) | 2019: 42.8% | 2020: 54.1% (+11.3%)

Zone 13 (High/Outside) | 2019: 30.8% | 2020: 16.9% (-13.9%)

Zone 14 (Inside) | 2019: 58.7% | 2020: 66.9% (+8.2%)

Zone 16 (Outside) | 2019: 64.7% | 2020: 68.8% (+4.1%)

Zone 17 (Low/Inside) | 2019: 33.2% | 2020: 44.7% (+11.5%)

Zone 18 (Low) | 2019: 45.6% | 2020: 55.2% (+9.6%)

Zone 19 (Low/Outside) | 2019: 27.4% | 2020: 39.0% (+11.6%)

[pacopete4]

Boy, it'd be disappointing to give up on Navarez after one weird season after posting back to back 119 OPS+ seasons as a catcher who didn't look as bad as advertised defensively. I like Pina as a clubhouse guy and defensive catcher but it probably is time for Nottingham to get an opportunity with this club.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Boy, it'd be disappointing to give up on Navarez after one weird season after posting back to back 119 OPS+ seasons as a catcher who didn't look as bad as advertised defensively. I like Pina as a clubhouse guy and defensive catcher but it probably is time for Nottingham to get an opportunity with this club.

 

Agreed. I don't see any chance that Narvaez isn't back this year. But then, this team has surprised me quite a bit lately with their personnel decisions, so who knows?