Theo Epstein leaving Cubs

[Eye Black]

Theo Epstein reportedly stepping down as the Cubs President of Baseball Operations. Jed Hoyer is going to be elevated to his role beginning this Friday.

[JohnBriggs12]

Not a total surprise as he hinted this move was coming at his year end press conference.

 

Heading to Mets?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's said he's taking the summer off to spend with family and work with his non-profit. Wouldn't surprise me to see him part of a ownership group down the road, though.

[monty57]

Not surprising, as it fits what he did with the Red Sox:

 

1) Find a major market team in need of a rebuild.

2) Tear the team down to get multiple top draft picks in a row, while trying to build the farm.

3) When the prospects get MLB ready, start spending huge money to bolster the MLB roster, not really caring about how long the deals are or how much they will hurt the team in a few years.

4) Win the World Series with this combo of elite prospects from top draft picks and high-priced free agents

5) Spend the next few years trading away every prospect you have trying to get another World Series win, and signing a few more high-priced free agents pushing you over the luxury tax.

6) Leave town and let the next guy try to sort out the mess you left them with no farm, a bunch of old, overpriced guys, and no "controlled" talent left to trade.

 

It got the Red Sox two World Series wins, and the Cubs one, but I'm interested to see how Hoyer is going to navigate things. If he doesn't trade them, he's losing Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, and Baez after 2021. I could see him being the most hated guy in Chicago in the likely scenario that the Cubs stumble and end up at the bottom of the standings for a few seasons. Makes it even better that they all had down seasons in the crazy 2020 campaign, putting their trade value at an all-time low.

[nate82]

 

It got the Red Sox two World Series wins, and the Cubs one, but I'm interested to see how Hoyer is going to navigate things. If he doesn't trade them, he's losing Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, and Baez after 2021. I could see him being the most hated guy in Chicago in the likely scenario that the Cubs stumble and end up at the bottom of the standings for a few seasons. Makes it even better that they all had down seasons in the crazy 2020 campaign, putting their trade value at an all-time low.

 

The Cubs are going to resign two of their free agents and one of those will not be Bryant if he had any trade value at all he would be traded this off season. I believe the Cubs will resign Rizzo and Baez and I wouldn't be surprised to see a contract extension for Baez soon. The Cubs real problem is the bullpen and starting pitching and I don't think they will go out and spend on Bauer and will instead go bargain bin shopping for players like Gausman. I believe the Cubs could have down years from 2022-2023 and then be back again in 2024 and if that is their plan then extending Baez and Schwarber makes more sense. Each would be in their mid 30's by that time and if they drafted well and spend well in the international free agents they should have a good team by 2024 again.

 

I don't see the Cubs being down for more than 2-years unless they draft horribly or the international free agents they spend on are busts.

[monty57]

 

It got the Red Sox two World Series wins, and the Cubs one, but I'm interested to see how Hoyer is going to navigate things. If he doesn't trade them, he's losing Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, and Baez after 2021. I could see him being the most hated guy in Chicago in the likely scenario that the Cubs stumble and end up at the bottom of the standings for a few seasons. Makes it even better that they all had down seasons in the crazy 2020 campaign, putting their trade value at an all-time low.

 

The Cubs are going to resign two of their free agents and one of those will not be Bryant if he had any trade value at all he would be traded this off season. I believe the Cubs will resign Rizzo and Baez and I wouldn't be surprised to see a contract extension for Baez soon. The Cubs real problem is the bullpen and starting pitching and I don't think they will go out and spend on Bauer and will instead go bargain bin shopping for players like Gausman. I believe the Cubs could have down years from 2022-2023 and then be back again in 2024 and if that is their plan then extending Baez and Schwarber makes more sense. Each would be in their mid 30's by that time and if they drafted well and spend well in the international free agents they should have a good team by 2024 again.

 

I don't see the Cubs being down for more than 2-years unless they draft horribly or the international free agents they spend on are busts.

 

I agree Bryant isn't getting extended. MLBTraderumors even hinted that he may get non-tendered rather than pay him the $20M or so he'll get in arby. Again, part of the "mess" Hoyer will have to deal with rather than Epstein making that unpopular decision. Imagine how the radio talk shows and the "casual fans" would take the Cubs "being too cheap to hold onto their MVP player."

 

The Cubs may extend Baez, as he's the one who makes the most sense, but they've already tried unsuccessfully. They could re-open the negotiations, but there are obviously hurdles or he'd already be signed.

 

Of course, losing some guys means they should have money, but it's really hard (and expensive) to build a team's core through free agency. Even if they re-sign some of them, they're losing much of what has made them successful for the past five years, and the guys they'll keep will be much more expensive than they have been.

 

I'm sure Hoyer is happy to get the promotion, but he's in a tough position. He is expected to win, and he's facing some serious headwinds. If things go south, he'll get the blame, when he probably won't deserve most of it.

[Lathund]

I'd be a bit iffy about a Baez extension, at least if he wants the kind of contract his 2018 and 2019 would entail. His skillset is defense, foot speed and bat speed, all things that don't age well. If the bat speed goes even slightly, it could get really ugly. The PR side of it is significant too though, he's immensely popular, so that would factor in as well. Would all depend on the money; I suspect there is a gulf there between the two camps or it would've been done a long time ago.

 

But yeah they are in quite a bind with what to do with their post 2021 FAs (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber) and their 2022 FAs (Contreras primarily). Contreras would have the highest trade value by far, but probably also one they want to keep. Baez should get a decent haul, but the optics of that trade would be really bad. Go for one last push and fail, and they'd be in a terrible situation. Trade their valuable players (Contreras, Baez, Darvish, Hendricks) and they're looking at basically starting over with a loong rebuild.

 

Their best bet might just be to more or less punt on being competitive in 2021 (Unless they hit on all their minor league signings), eat all the salary they can for Bryant and Schwarber (And Heyward is someone will take him...) to get the best possible return, trade Contreras (and hope for Caratini/Amaya), see if they can extend Baez/Rizzo at a reasonable cost (Like I alluded to above, I don't think those deals will be great at the back end, but with a new network, investments in Wrigleyville, the losses of 2020, I don't think they can afford the fan backlash that losing literally every fan favorite would have. And they should be good for a while still), and maybe look at extending Happ if they really believe in him. If they go for prospects relatively close to the majors, there's a route to be competitive in 2022-2023. But unless they really like their farm, and most of all produce some home-grown pitching which they've been unable to do so far (Underwood with 36 IP has the most innings pitched by any pitcher drafted or signed as an international FA under the Epstein regime), that's still a strategy that requires them to rely a lot on free agents, and make good decisions there.

 

Not an easy task for sure. Will be interesting to see which route they take; I have a hard time seeing a total teardown this soon after, but you never know...

[brewcrewdue80]

2020 when Brewer fans try giving ideas how to keep the Cubs relevant.

[monty57]

2020 when Brewer fans try giving ideas how to keep the Cubs relevant.

 

LOL, we're bored.

 

I think the Cubs had a real chance to build a dynasty, and instead they took the "go all in" route. I live in Illinois, so I have a lot of friends who are Cub fans. Most of them feel that getting one World Series win makes it worth it. I've just never been one who likes to throw away the future for today, and I think the Cubs are in a situation similar to the Brewers post-2011. A big difference is that they have a lot more money to work with, so they can afford to make a few mistakes.

 

I personally hope they keep "trying to win," and it leads them into a long period of mediocrity. Baez is entering his final year of arby. Last year he was supposed to make $10M. If they sign him to a major extension, they're getting the same player for 2x-3x the salary. They don't improve, they just get more expensive, so they don't have as much money to pay the rest of the team. So, if they extend two of the five "core" players they're losing, they'll be spending around the same amount of money for 40% of the production. I don't see how they'll make up for losing all that production when I don't believe that they have any upcoming stars sitting in the upper minors ready to take over.

 

They really have to hope that they can find someone to give them good, young MLB-ready talent for some of the guys they're set to lose. Since good, young talent would seemingly be at a premium as teams worry about how COVID will affect the future, and with most of the guys the Cubs would likely be willing to trade coming off of poor seasons, that could be a hard task.

[pacopete4]

Pretty cool Dynasty the Cubs had. It's too bad the Brewers had to help wreck it...