2021 ZiPS Projections [Other Misc. Projections]

[brewtank34]

Their model projects Yelich to only hit .266 this year? That seems pretty low.

Yeah, that’s the lowest of any projection. Here are Yelich’s projected slash line from the various projection systems (from highest to lowest OPS):

 

Davenport - .284 / .384 / .551 = .935 OPS

THE BAT X - .287 / .389 / .541 = .930 OPS

THE BAT - .288 / .389 / .538 = .927 OPS

ATC - .275 / .386 / .530 = .916 OPS

Steamer - .274 / .382 / .520 = .902 OPS

ZiPS - .273 / .379 / .523 = .902 OPS

PECOTA - .266 / .375 / .499 = .874 OPS

 

To my knowledge THE BAT X is the only projection system that incorporates Statcast data.

 

 

I'm still holding onto some hope that Turner chooses the Crew. If that's the case, it will be interesting to see these numbers for Yelich with The Beerd protecting him in the clean-up spot.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm still holding onto some hope that Turner chooses the Crew. If that's the case, it will be interesting to see these numbers for Yelich with The Beerd protecting him in the clean-up spot.

If Turner does decide to come to Milwaukee, this an amazingly clever nickname play on Turner and the Brewers. Gotta believe that merchandise would sell quite quickly.

[Eye Black]

Clay Davenport's projections have 30 players in the National League Central finishing with > 2.0 WARP (Baseball Prospectus' version of WAR). The Brewers currently have 10 of those 30 players.

 

[pre]# Player Team WARP

1 C. Yelich MIL 6.0

2 Nolan Arenado STL 4.8

3 Kris Bryant CHI 4.5

Jack Flaherty STL 4.5

5 Luis Castillo CIN 4.2

6 Josh Hader MIL 4.1

7 Javier Baez CHI 3.9

8 Kolten Wong MIL 3.8

Paul DeJong STL 3.8

10 B. Woodruff MIL 3.6

Eugenio Suarez CIN 3.6

Jesse Winker CIN 3.6

Ke'Bryan Hayes PIT 3.6

14 Luis Urias MIL 3.0

15 Corbin Burnes MIL 2.8

Mike Moustakas CIN 2.8

Sonny Gray CIN 2.8

Joc Pederson CHI 2.8

P. Goldschmidt STL 2.8

Bryan Reynolds PIT 2.8

21 G. Gallegos STL 2.7

22 W. Contreras CHI 2.6

Craig Kimbrel CHI 2.6

24 Kyle Hendricks CHI 2.5

Harrison Bader STL 2.5

26 Josh Lindblom MIL 2.4

Lorenzo Cain MIL 2.4

28 Freddy Peralta MIL 2.3

29 Kwang-Hyun Kim STL 2.2

30 Devin Williams MIL 2.1[/pre]

 

 

Note: It's worth acknowledging Josh Hader won't actually finish with 4.1 WARP in his current role. His best seasons thus far have been 2.7 and 2.6 WARP.

[Lathund]

Speaking of Clay Davenport, I gave Brewers 4 wins and took away 2 from the Cubs today. Well, sort of. I had been curious about how the Brewers in his projections were projected for 54 WARP and the Reds 36, Cardinals 46 and Cubs 42, yet the division was projected with Brewers at 81 wins and the others 80. So I mailed Clay and asked what was behind that. Turns out part of it was a bug in the system which included defense for the WARP totals, but not for the calculations for team standings, which changed things.

 

He also pointed out another factor; That the extra WAR(P) that high leverage relievers get, doesn't add to the team projection totals to the same degree. And of course with Hader and Williams in there, that applies to the Brewers more than almost any other team.

[Eye Black]

Speaking of Clay Davenport, I gave Brewers 4 wins and took away 2 from the Cubs today. Well, sort of. I had been curious about how the Brewers in his projections were projected for 54 WARP and the Reds 36, Cardinals 46 and Cubs 42, yet the division was projected with Brewers at 81 wins and the others 80. So I mailed Clay and asked what was behind that. Turns out part of it was a bug in the system which included defense for the WARP totals, but not for the calculations for team standings, which changed things.

 

He also pointed out another factor; That the extra WAR(P) that high leverage relievers get, doesn't add to the team projection totals to the same degree. And of course with Hader and Williams in there, that applies to the Brewers more than almost any other team.

That’s great! I was wondering what was going on with his standings projections over the past few weeks as well.

 

[markedman5]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/