2021 ZiPS Projections [Other Misc. Projections]

[sveumrules]

Cardinals projections were posted today, looks like they probably have the most well rounded collection of talent among the NL Central hopefuls...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-st-louis-cardinals/

[Eye Black]

It appears the ZiPS projections have the currently constructed Brewers as an 81 or 82 win team. Sort of shows just how important this off-season is since there are glaring areas where they could improve upon these projections.

 

The ZiPS graphics are certainly flawed, especially at this point in the off-season and without even a finalized answer on the DH, but this is the breakdown comparison between the Reds and Brewers:

 

BREWERS

Starting Pitching: 12.8

Bullpen: 5.7

Position Players: 16.3

DH: 0.9

 

TOTAL: 35.7 WAR

 

 

REDS

Starting Pitching: 14.6

Bullpen: 4.9 *projection prior to trading Iglesias

Position Players: 12.2

DH: 0.5

 

TOTAL: 32.2 WAR

 

EDIT: The bottom of the article clearly states not to do the exact thing I did above by adding up the projected WAR on the graphics to assess team WAR, so remember it's a VERY imperfect practice and one that's frowned upon by the FanGraphs folks.

 

Cubs and Cardinals WAR breakdowns from the graphics...

 

CARDINALS

Starting Pitching: 13.9

Bullpen: 4.7

Position Players: 17.3

DH: 0.2

 

TOTAL: 36.1 WAR

 

 

CUBS

Starting Pitching: 8.1

Bullpen: 1.2

Position Players: 21.3

DH: -0.1

 

TOTAL: 30.5 WAR

[Eye Black]

Pirates were the last ZiPS Projection to be released (link).

 

Since we did the other NL Central breakdowns above here is what the Pirates graphic summary looks like:

 

PIRATES

Starting Pitching: 10.9

Bullpen: 2.0

Position Players: 12.3

DH: -0.4

 

TOTAL: 24.8 WAR

[sveumrules]

Brewers & Cardinals look like the top two teams at the moment & the Pirates are likely to be a complete non-factor, while the Cubs & Reds seem to be in a little bit more flux.

 

Would really love if the Cubs went into full on tear down mode, but I think they are going to stick around and try to at least cobble something halfway competitive together for 2021.

 

Also will be interesting to see if the Reds continue selling after Iglesias, or if they will try to reinvest that money around the edges after spending 150+ million on Moose, Castellanos, Akiyama & Miley last offseason.

[Eye Black]

Link to the Projected Team WAR by Position using FanGraphs Depth Charts (projections are a combination of ZiPS, Steamer, THE BAT). These were adjusted from previous data using the current Depth Charts playing time projections for each team.

 

According to this there is still 108.5 projected WAR among free agents.

 

The Brewers currently have the 16th highest projection in all of baseball, but lead the NL Central (Cardinals are next closest, but 3.4 projected WAR behind the Brewers).

[Lathund]

I enjoy seeing the Cubs projected for the least pitching fWAR of the entire league.

 

I believe these are the combined ZiPS + Steamer projections though. And to say I'm not a fan of Steamers pitching projections is an understatement. But even so, the Cubs have a *lot* of work to do on their pitching.

[Eye Black]

I believe these are the combined ZiPS + Steamer projections though. And to say I'm not a fan of Steamers pitching projections is an understatement. But even so, the Cubs have a *lot* of work to do on their pitching.

Yes, you’re correct (as well as THE BAT). I edited my post to reflect that it isn’t just using ZiPS projections.

[Lathund]

They show THE BAT projections on the player pages, but their Depth Charts says it's just Steamer and ZiPS there.

[Eye Black]

They show THE BAT projections on the player pages, but their Depth Charts says it's just Steamer and ZiPS there.

Got it, that’s disappointing because I really like THE BAT (and even more so THE BAT X).

[Eye Black]

Brewers’ PECOTA hitter projections (via Kyle Lesniewki):

 

[brewerfan82]

I think a lot of people are undervaluing Vogelbach and Robertson. Vogelbach has questions on defense and needs a platoon partner, and Robertson needs to prove what he can do with more playing time, so we definitely should get some extra support at 1st and 3rd still, but both provide some needed OBP and they're not quite the black hole at those positions that many are making them out to be.

[brewerfan82]

Here's a nice article from Mike Petriello written after St. Louis' Arenado acquisition with updated NL Central projections:

 

How the NL Central is still a 4-team race

 

The NL Central is projected at (pretty pathetically, lol):

 

Cardinals 79-83

Brewers 77-85

Cubs 76-86

Reds 75-87

Pirates 64-98

And his "Case for the Brewers" is:

 

Milwaukee has been so quiet this winter that it's easy to forget just how dominant the top half of its pitching staff can be. Take the group of starters Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, and relievers Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Freddy Peralta, Eric Yardley and Brent Suter. They combined for 263 2/3 innings, or just over half of all Brewers innings in 2020, combining for a 2.59 ERA and a 35% strikeout rate. That's a lot of elite pitching, from pitchers who are still around, and that doesn't account for higher hopes from Josh Lindblom or Adrian Houser.

 

Half of a 60-game season is different than half of a full one, obviously, and the larger issue here is that they've done almost nothing to improve their offense, although the likely return of Lorenzo Cain, who sat out almost all of 2020, ought to help. But really, a lot of this falls on the shoulders of Christian Yelich, the 2018 NL MVP, to rebound after a down -- by his standards -- '20. When we investigated this in December, we didn't really find a lot of reason for concern, other than an oddly passive approach at the plate. Another great 2018-'19 vintage season from Yelich, a solid year from Cain, and that top-end pitching will get you pretty far. Will anyone from the infield step up to help?

Doesn't look like anyone in the division will be a serious World Series contender, but a couple key acquisitions and this Brewer team could be in the playoffs for a 4th straight year.

[sveumrules]

The NL Central is projected at (pretty pathetically, lol):

 

Cardinals 79-83

Brewers 77-85

Cubs 76-86

Reds 75-87

Pirates 64-98

 

Those standings line up pretty well with the current projected Depth Chart WAR totals over at FanGraphs...

 

STL (28.4, will get a lil boost when Yadi signing is official)

MIL (28.2)

CHI (25.6)

CIN (23.3)

[PeaveyFury]

Just to clarify, the Cards projections ARE factoring in Arenado, right?

[brewerfan82]

Yep! I believe heading into the offseason a few projection systems actually had the Brewers slightly favored in the division.

[brewerfan82]

I think a lot of people aren't surprised by the Brewers' projected record at this point, but I think a lot of us are underestimating just how bad the rest of the division is as well.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just to clarify, the Cards projections ARE factoring in Arenado, right?

 

The Cardinals might have the worst projected OF (Fowler, Carlson, Bader) in the National League. Actually, other than Goldschmidt and Arenado, there isn't much to fear in that lineup.

 

But they are the Cardinals, so they'll find a way. They always find a way.

[sveumrules]

Just to clarify, the Cards projections ARE factoring in Arenado, right?

 

Yup, they were at 25.9 before Arenado deal became official.

[pacopete4]

Why would the Cards get a boost with Yadi? He's garbage.

[Eye Black]

Brewers’ PECOTA hitter projections (via Kyle Lesniewki):

 

Same thing (PECOTA projections) for the pitchers...

 

[RWeeksFan23]

Their model projects Yelich to only hit .266 this year? That seems pretty low.

[Eye Black]

Their model projects Yelich to only hit .266 this year? That seems pretty low.

Yeah, that’s the lowest of any projection. Here are Yelich’s projected slash line from the various projection systems (from highest to lowest OPS):

 

Davenport - .284 / .384 / .551 = .935 OPS

THE BAT X - .287 / .389 / .541 = .930 OPS

THE BAT - .288 / .389 / .538 = .927 OPS

ATC - .275 / .386 / .530 = .916 OPS

Steamer - .274 / .382 / .520 = .902 OPS

ZiPS - .273 / .379 / .523 = .902 OPS

PECOTA - .266 / .375 / .499 = .874 OPS

 

To my knowledge THE BAT X is the only projection system that incorporates Statcast data.

[Eye Black]

Kolten Wong's projected stats this year from the various projection systems.

 

ZiPS

[pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR

143 524 9 60 51 14 8.4% 14.7% .124 .301 .266 .345 .391 .316 96 2.2[/pre]

 

Steamer

[pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR

126 537 10 65 52 14 9.2% 16.2% .130 .298 .260 .343 .390 .316 94 1.8[/pre]

 

ATC

[pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+

133 537 9 64 50 14 8.7% 15.3% .122 .300 .263 .343 .385 .314 97[/pre]

 

THE BAT

[pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+

126 546 10 69 48 15 9.4% 16.1% .127 .295 .258 .345 .384 .321 101[/pre]

 

THE BAT X

[pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+

126 546 11 68 48 15 9.3% 16.2% .126 .285 .250 .338 .376 .314 97[/pre]

 

Clay Davenport

[pre]PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG WARP

496 441 58 120 21 3 10 46 40 71 10 .272 .353 .401 3.9[/pre]

 

 

The Davenport system had the Brewers at 87 wins before the Wong signing. I would guess they will now be projected at 89 or 90 wins considering Wong's 3.9 WARP.

[Lathund]

The PECOTA projected standings are out. They join the Fangraphs combined list and Clay Davenport in projecting the Brewers winning the division. This time with 89 wins. Interestingly, they have the Cubs 2nd and the Cardinals only winning an average of 80 games. The key to all this is run prevention; Brewers are projected to allow the 4th fewest runs in MLB; only the Dodgers, Padres and Rays are projected to allow fewer.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs projected standings/playoff odds have gone live...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Here's how the NL stacks up ranked by largest divergence between FG & BPro...

 

TEAM | FG Wins | BP Wins (diff)

 

MIL | 81.4 | 88.8 (7.4)

ATL | 89.2 | 82.4 (6.8)

COL | 66.9 | 60.3 (6.6)

CHI | 79.0 | 85.1 (6.1)

ARI | 73.4 | 79.3 (5.9)

LAD | 97.5 | 102.9 (5.4)

PIT | 65.6 | 61.1 (4.5)

PHI | 78.8 | 83.0 (4.2)

NYM | 91.7 | 95.5 (3.8)

WAS | 82.4 | 85.0 (2.6)

SFG | 77.8 | 75.3 (2.5)

MIA | 70.4 | 68.1 (2.3)

STL | 81.5 | 80.6 (0.9)

CIN | 78.2 | 79.1 (0.9)

SDP | 95.3 | 95.6 (0.3)