2021 ZiPS Projections [Other Misc. Projections]

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs started publishing Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the 2021 season last week. There have only been two teams posted thus far (NYY & OAK), but I thought it might be interesting to see how much (or little) weight the results from the shortened 2020 season would have on the 2021 projections, specifically for batters with an eye towards how much positive regression Brewers 2020 underperformers might be in line for this coming season...

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Voit (234) 122 | 156 | 134 (+12)

DJL (216) 108 | 177 | 119 (+11)

Hicks (211) 108 | 121 | 112 (+4)

Sanchez (178) 121 | 69 | 100 (-21)

Urshela (174) 105 | 136 | 110 (+5)

Gleyber (160) 136 | 102 | 136 (0)

Frazier (160) 95 | 149 | 109 (+14)

Gardner (158) 97 | 108 | 106 (+9)

Judge (114) 140 | 142 | 139 (-1)

Tauchman (111) 105 | 83 | 105 (0)

Wade (105) 66 | 66 | 70 (+4)

Giancarlo (94) 138 | 144 | 138 (0)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Olson (245) 128 | 105 | 129 (+1)

Canha (243) 119 | 126 | 118 (-1)

Semien (236) 124 | 91 | 111 (-13)

LaStella (228) 95 | 127 | 103 (+8)

Laureano (222) 113 | 100 | 116 (+3)

Grossman (192) 95 | 130 | 100 (+5)

Piscotty (171) 109 | 76 | 93 (-16)

Chapman (152) 123 | 122 | 127 (+4)

Murphy (140) 91 | 131 | 100 (+9)

Kemp (114) 91 | 92 | 94 (+3)

Khrush (99) 110 | 79 | 109 (-1)

[Eye Black]

The Padres ZiPS projections are out in case that's a thing anyone wanted to look at for any reason.

[MrTPlush]

The Padres ZiPS projections are out in case that's a thing anyone wanted to look at for any reason.

 

Dang, they have a pre arby CFer projected to give 3.1 WAR next year.

[stoutdude04]

The Padres ZiPS projections are out in case that's a thing anyone wanted to look at for any reason.

 

Dang, they have a pre arby CFer projected to give 3.1 WAR next year.

 

3.3!

 

Crazy that he is the 4th most valuable player on that team based on projections. Hopefully Urias pans out!

[sveumrules]

In addition to the Padres - the Blue Jays & White Sox have also been released over the last couple two tree days. Let's see how much effect a hundred or two pandemic plate appearances (& getting a year older obviously) had on their respective batters' ZiPS projections...

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Tatis (257) 128 | 155 | 142 (+14)

Machado (254) 120 | 158 | 124 (+4)

Grisham (252) 107 | 122 | 111 (+4)

Myers (218) 102 | 159 | 115 (+13)

Profar (202) 101 | 113 | 103 (+2)

Cronenworth (192) 84 | 128 | 97 (+13)

Nola (184) 87 | 129 | 93 (+6)

Hosmer (156) 99 | 131 | 99 (0)

Moreland (152) 94 | 139 | 99 (+5)

Pham (125) 122 | 74 | 109 (-13)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Biggio (265) 95 | 122 | 106 (+11)

Guerrero (243) 125 | 115 | 124 (-1)

Grichuk (231) 104 | 114 | 109 (+5)

Gurriel (224) 98 | 138 | 113 (+15)

Teoscar (207) 104 | 146 | 121 (+17)

Villar (207) 99 | 64 | 87 (-12)

Shaw (180) 106 | 95 | 102 (-4)

Jansen (147) 86 | 85 | 101 (+15)

Panik (141) 90 | 79 | 87 (-3)

Bichette (128) 115 | 127 | 125 (+10)

Tellez (127) 100 | 139 | 119 (+19)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Abreu (262) 113 | 166 | 121 (+8)

Moncada (231) 121 | 94 | 114 (-7)

Robert (227) 104 | 101 | 113 (+9)

Eloy (226) 128 | 140 | 132 (+4)

Anderson (221) 99 | 141 | 113 (+14)

Grandal (194) 118 | 113 | 111 (-7)

Encarnacion (181) 121 | 70 | 96 (-25)

Mazara (149) 99 | 64 | 96 (-3)

Mendick (114) 80 | 81 | 88 (+8)

McCann (111) 85 | 144 | 92 (+7)

Madrigal (109) 90 | 108 | 93 (+3)

[sveumrules]

It's still a pretty small sample with only five teams published, but of the 53 batters projected so far for 2021 who had at least 100 PAs in 2020, their OPS+ projections have changed by the following margins over the last year...

 

0-4%: 20

5-9%: 14

10-14%: 12

15-19%: 5

20+%: 2

[sveumrules]

Three more teams - the Dodgers, Braves & Royals - have been published since we last checked in. Here's a quick accounting of how their batters did in 2020 & what kind of an impact that had on their projections...

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Muncy (248) 132 | 97 | 127 (-5)

Mookie (246) 137 | 149 | 138 (+1)

Bellinger (243) 157 | 113 | 141 (-16)

Seager (232) 115 | 152 | 130 (+15)

Taylor (214) 104 | 128 | 107 (+3)

Pollock (210) 102 | 134 | 110 (+8)

Turner (175) 124 | 135 | 119 (-5)

Hernandez (148) 96 | 83 | 93 (-3)

Pederson (138) 124 | 84| 116 (-8)

Smith (137) 108 | 164 | 117 (+9)

Barnes (104) 85 | 85 | 82 (-3)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Ozuna (267) 119 | 175 | 130 (+11)

Dansby (264) 91 | 110 | 94 (+3)

Freeman (262) 141 | 186 | 141 (0)

Duvall (209) 96 | 113 | 96 (0)

Riley (206) 107 | 86 | 95 (-12)

Acuna (202) 133 | 155 | 147 (+14)

d'Arnaud (184) 89 | 138 | 98 (+9)

Markakis (141) 94 | 84 | 80 (-14)

Inciarte (131) 92 | 36 | 79 (-13)

Carmago (127) 94 | 58 | 86 (-8)

Albies (124) 121 | 99 | 117 (-4)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Merrifield (265) 106 | 106 | 107 (+1)

Franco (243) 92 | 109 | 95 (+3)

Mondesi (233) 89 | 91 | 93 (+4)

Lopez (192) 82 | 53 | 75 (-7)

Dozier (186) 110 | 101 | 108 (-2)

Soler (174) 130 | 107 | 125 (-5)

Perez (156) 96 | 161 | 108 (+12)

O'Hearn (132) 96 | 66 | 91 (-5)

 

That brings us up to 83 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows...

 

0-4%: 32

5-9%: 24

10-14%: 18

15-19%: 7

20+%: 2

[Eye Black]

The FanGraphs' ZiPS 2021 Projections: Cincinnati Reds have been released.

 

A few quick takeaways:

 

- Reds are in the market for a shortstop for next season, and that seems like the most likely area they will make a splash. It's the biggest hole on their current roster. They are a dark horse to make a run at trading for Francisco Lindor which would sort of fit their recent MO of trying to piece together and add immediate impact talent each season.

 

- Mike Moustakas currently projects to be their second most impactful hitter (in terms of WAR) behind Eugenio Suarez.

 

- ZiPS doesn't appear to think much of the defensive abilities for a lot of the Reds' fielders. The Brewers have plenty of reason to root for the DH to remain in the National League, but so do the Reds it would appear.

 

- ZiPS is down on Nick Castellanos more than I am, but it appears a lot of what hurts his value is perceived defensive deficiencies.

 

 

Edit: According to these ZiPS projections this Reds team as currently constructed projects to be around a 78 win team.

[sveumrules]

- ZiPS is down on Nick Castellanos more than I am, but it appears a lot of what hurts his value is perceived defensive deficiencies.

 

Since becoming a full time OF in 2018 Castellanos has posted -24, -15 & -6 (in 57 games) defensive values per BRef WAR & -20.7, -12.6 & -5.7 (in 57 games) defensive values per FanGraphs WAR, that -8 projection might actually be a little light.

 

His OPS+ marks the last three years have been 128, 122 (105 w/ DET, 153 w/CHI) & 102. Entering 2020 his ZiPS projected OPS+ was 119, though it dropped to 109 entering 2021. I'm guess the main thing driving that drop is a 7% jump in K rate from 21.5% in 2019 to 28.5% in 2020, though it looks like his exit velocity (88.9 MPH to 91.0 MPH) and barrel % (10.1 to 16.0) both rose in 2020.

 

Add it all up and the -.032 differential between his .356 expected wOBA & .324 actual wOBA was the 20th largest of 257 qualifiers, so in that regard he was among the more "unlucky" batters last season.

 

I'd probably take the over on a 109 OPS+, but the under on the -8 defense for Castellanos in 2021.

[sveumrules]

In addition to the Reds - the Mets & Rockies have also been released recently, bringing it up to eleven teams total, over a third of the league.

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Castellanos (242) 119 | 102 | 109 (-10)

Suarez (231) 122 | 102 | 115 (-7)

Votto (223) 114 | 110 | 92 (-22)

Akiyama (183) 98 | 76 | 90 (-8)

Winker (183) 112 | 142 | 114 (+2)

Mooooose (163) 118 | 108 | 109 (-9)

Galvis (159) 80 | 86 | 77 (-3)

Barnhart (110) 89 | 77 | 83 (-6)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Alonso (239) 139 | 123 | 132 (-7)

Conforto (233) 130 | 156 | 130 (0)

Davis (229) 111 | 112 | 108 (-3)

Nimmo (225) 114 | 146 | 122 (+8)

McNeil (209) 125 | 131 | 125 (0)

Smith (199) 95 | 169 | 117 (+22)

Cano (182) 95 | 144 | 99 (+4)

Ramos (155) 102 | 88 | 91 (-11)

Rosario (147) 98 | 76 | 92 (-6)

Gimenez (132) 66 | 102 | 80 (+14)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Story (259) 113 | 118 | 110 (-3)

Blackmon (247) 112 | 103 | 106 (-6)

Pillar (223) 85 | 107 | 88 (+3)

Tapia (206) 88 | 96 | 91 (+3)

Arenado (201) 126 | 84 | 117 (-9)

McMahon (193) 91 | 79 | 92 (+1)

Hampson (184) 77 | 68 | 77 (0)

Murphy (132) 101 | 54 | 86 (-15)

Kemp (132) 88 | 88 | 91 (+3)

Hilliard (114) 75 | 76 | 77 (+2)

Wolters (109) 66 | 41 | 59 (-7)

Fuentes (103) 75 | 90 | 77 (+2)

Dahl (99) 104 | 19 | 101 (-3)

 

That brings us up to 113 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows...

 

0-4%: 46

5-9%: 34

10-14%: 21

15-19%: 8

20+%: 4

[sveumrules]

Two more teams - the Nationals & Indians - were dropped this week, making it an even baker's dozen...

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Turner (259) 106 | 157 | 122 (+16)

Cabrera (213) 105 | 98 | 99 (-6)

Soto (196) 149 | 212 | 160 (+11)

Robles (189) 96 | 63 | 90 (-6)

Eaton (176) 104 | 76 | 96 (-8)

Thames (140) 115 | 65 | 98 (-17)

Garcia (139) 59 | 78 | 71 (+12)

Suzuki (129) 98 | 99 | 95 (-3)

Kieboom (122) 91 | 54 | 90 (-1)

Gomes (119) 81 | 107 | 89 (+8)

Kendrick (100) 105 | 87 | 102 (-3)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Lindor (266) 126 | 102 | 122 (-4)

Hernandez (261) 91 | 106 | 91 (0)

Santana (255) 115 | 91 | 110 (-5)

Ramirez (254) 130 | 163 | 143 (+13)

Reyes (241) 114 | 113 | 112 (-2)

Naquin (141) 93 | 68 | 82 (-11)

DeShields (120) 65 | 71 | 69 (+4)

Perez (110) 79 | 33 | 68 (-11)

 

That brings us up to 132 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows...

 

0-4%: 53

5-9%: 39

10-14%: 26

15-19%: 10

20+%: 4

[sveumrules]

Three more teams - the Astros, Phillies & Diamondbacks - have bern released, so we're now a lil over half way through. With only 14 teams remaining, there is like a 7% chance the Brewers are next.

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Gurriel (230) 107 | 76 | 94 (-13)

Tucker (228) 113 | 123 | 123 (+11)

Springer (222) 133 | 140 | 126 (-7)

Correa (221) 126 | 92 | 127 (+1)

Altuve (210) 132 | 71 | 123 (-9)

Reddick (210) 95 | 88 | 91 (-4)

Brantley (187) 113 | 126 | 121 (+8)

Bregman (180) 154 | 116 | 143 (-9)

Maldonado (165) 72 | 98 | 77 (+5)

Toro (97) 97 | 39 | 88 (-9)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Harper (244) 136 | 157 | 139 (+3)

McCutch (241) 114 | 102 | 102 (-12)

Didi (237) 110 | 119 | 106 (-4)

Segura (217) 100 | 106 | 94 (-6)

Realmuto (195) 115 | 123 | 114 (-1)

Hoskins (185) 122 | 137 | 124 (+2)

Bohm (180) 101 | 136 | 108 (+7)

Kingery (124) 86 | 37 | 78 (-8)

Quinn (116) 79 | 54 | 67 (-12)

Bruce (103) 110 | 88 | 96 (-14)

Gosselin (102) 68 | 94 | 67 (-1)

 

Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change)

 

Walker (243) 104 | 110 | 104 (0)

Calhoun (228) 99 | 127 | 100 (+1)

Escobar (222) 106 | 61 | 95 (-11)

Peralta (218) 101 | 106 | 97 (-4)

Ahmed (217) 91 | 94 | 88 (-3)

Marte (195) 117 | 95 | 111 (-6)

Kelly (129) 97 | 71 | 89 (-8)

Varsho (115) 96 | 74 | 86 (-10)

 

That brings us up to 160 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows...

 

0-4%: 64

5-9%: 49

10-14%: 33

15-19%: 10

20+%: 4

[Brewers Numbers]

They released the Brewers projections. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

[sveumrules]

Tried to figure out where some of the OPS+ projections would end up in the 2021 Offense thread...

 

My guesses are they will come in around 136 (Yelich), 104 (Hiura), 95 (Avisail), 91 (Omar) & 87 (Urias).

 

Looks like they came in at 135 (Yelich), 102 (Hiura), 98 (Avisail), 94 (Omar) & 90 (Urias)

 

Also made educated guesses on Vogelbach (115), Cain (fall slightly from 92) & Hader (couple two tree points higher than 163 ERA+) in different threads, they came in at 112 (Vogelbach), 92 (Cain) & 164 (Hader).

[MrTPlush]

Why do they do these projections in December...it just looks dumb before moves are made. Especially when some teams are released in November and some in what...nearly January?

 

Do they update these as moves are made at least?

[PeaveyFury]

Why do they do these projections in December...it just looks dumb before moves are made. Especially when some teams are released in November and some in what...nearly January?

 

Do they update these as moves are made at least?

 

Good questions. There's literally no way a guy like Erceg should be included in these projections....

[brewerfan82]

Why do they do these projections in December...it just looks dumb before moves are made. Especially when some teams are released in November and some in what...nearly January?

 

Do they update these as moves are made at least?

Well I guess it depends on how you're using the projections. He's really just rolling out player projections, not team projections. So if you're trying to compare how good different teams will be in 2021, then this is obviously a flawed tool. But if you're interested in analyzing the current makeup of the team and what they need to address during the course of the remainder of the offseason, it's a nice base for that discussion (and makes for some fun fodder to look forward to over a long offseason).

 

I do agree, it'd be nice to get an update in March that's more team-centric. If nothing else, I guess that's what the standings projections will reflect at that point.

[Eye Black]

It appears the ZiPS projections have the currently constructed Brewers as an 81 or 82 win team. Sort of shows just how important this off-season is since there are glaring areas where they could improve upon these projections.

 

The ZiPS graphics are certainly flawed, especially at this point in the off-season and without even a finalized answer on the DH, but this is the breakdown comparison between the Reds and Brewers:

 

BREWERS

Starting Pitching: 12.8

Bullpen: 5.7

Position Players: 16.3

DH: 0.9

 

TOTAL: 35.7 WAR

 

 

REDS

Starting Pitching: 14.6

Bullpen: 4.9 *projection prior to trading Iglesias

Position Players: 12.2

DH: 0.5

 

TOTAL: 32.2 WAR

 

EDIT: The bottom of the article clearly states not to do the exact thing I did above by adding up the projected WAR on the graphics to assess team WAR, so remember it's a VERY imperfect practice and one that's frowned upon by the FanGraphs folks.

[MrTPlush]

I get they want to string it along for clicks and whatnot...but you would think you could (and would want to) dish them all out before the offseason really starts during the dead time.

 

Any, on paper the rotation is actually pretty good...if guys would play up to those projections. Pretty generous with the projections for Houser and Linblom. Those two dudes didn't even combine for 0 WAR last year and next year we project them at 4.3? Yah...I don't know about that.

 

On the flip side most of the offensive projections feel a bit conservative...though I won't argue why they are the way they are. Hopefully the offensive overperforms to make up for how much that rotation will likely underperform.

[SoCalBrewfan]

This is not a projection of what will happen, and Erceg being there doesn't mean anyone expects him to be the starting 3b, it's just that they run all the players that seem to have a plausible chance to play as though they were going to be on the team. Also we don't have much at third right now. I mean, nobody expects Braden Webb to start 21 games, or Jake Gatewood to get over 400 PA...and players who have retired or gone to Japan will often still be listed.

 

It takes time to do the projections and write-ups so they spread them over the offseason. They will of course be updated.

 

Rather than complaining about what these projections are not, I like to use them to get a glimpse of some unexpected nuggets. For example, the projection system thinks Alec Bettinger would be an adequate back end rotation piece in 2021 with a 93 ERA+. It projects that Yelich will bounce back and Urias will be our third best position player considering offense, defense, and positional value. It likes Turang a bit I think, listing Ryne Sandberg as a comp. Strangely, it thinks Billy McKinney has some value.

[sveumrules]

When Yelich signed his extension, ZiPS projected him for a 148 OPS+ & 5.7 WAR in 2021. From 2021-28 he came in at 30 WAR total.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/christian-yelich-cashes-in/

 

His new ZiPS is at a 135 OPS+ & 4.3 WAR. Applying a similar aging curve comes out to around 20.5 projected WAR from 2021-28.

[Lathund]

Any, on paper the rotation is actually pretty good...if guys would play up to those projections. Pretty generous with the projections for Houser and Linblom. Those two dudes didn't even combine for 0 WAR last year and next year we project them at 4.3? Yah...I don't know about that.

 

ZiPS uses fWAR, Lindblom put up 0.8 fWAR and Houser 0.4 in 2020. Extrapolate that over a full season and it's 3.2. Not too crazy. I know that Dan has also talked about some underlying metrics being part of the projection system. Like for example players with a swinging strike % much higher than their strikeout rate would indicate, might be projected to improve on that. Just to take one example, no idea if that factors in for these guys.

 

Lindblom for example put up a 3.88 FIP, and he has experience of working deep into games in Korea. And started to look much better towards the later part of the season after settling in. If he keeps his pitch counts reasonable, he'll put up a good bit of WAR simply due to being a roughly average starter with a good chunk of innings pitched.

 

As for Houser, I'm a believer. His main issue to me is that he needs something in his repertoire that works against lefties. He dominates righties, and if he was even a below average starter against lefties that's a 2+ WAR season right there. I hope he's the next big project of the pitching lab. Whatever it might be, adding that cutter or working on a changeup that works well with his 2-seamer or w/e, find at least something and he's a solid mid-rotation starter. Just to illustrate, this past season RHB were .219/.272/.313 against him, lefties were .336/.420/.568. ~80 point BABIP difference, but for him I don't think that's luck; his stuff just works very differently based on batter handedness. Career numbers are a bit closer together, but still with the same clear trend. They fixed Burnes issues against LHB, here's hoping they can do the same with Houser.

[Eye Black]

Not sure if anyone else caught this, but the Bobby Abreu is the number 1 player comp listed for Yelich. That is the exact same player comp that was previously listed for Trent Grisham.

[sveumrules]

Cubs projections went up today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

 

Definitely the most settled lineup out of the NLC hopefuls, but outside of Darvish/Hendriks the pitching staff is pretty uninspiring.

[Eye Black]

Clay Davenport's 2021 Projections are updated. Based on the numbers it doesn't appear his system is weighing 2020 results all that strongly.

 

The Brewers as currently assembled are listed as an 85-win team and projected to win the NL Central by 3 games.

 

The player specific projections for the Brewers are available HERE.

 

Davenport's Projected WAR leaders on offense:

 

Yelich - 6.7 WAR

Urias - 3.8 WAR

Hiura - 3.1 WAR

Cain - 2.2 WAR

Vogelbach - 2.0 WAR

Arcia - 1.9 WAR

Narvez - 1.2 WAR

 

Davenport's Projected WAR leaders on defense:

 

Woodruff - 3.3 WAR

Hader - 3.0 WAR

Lindblom - 2.4 WAR

Burnes - 1.9 WAR

Peralta - 1.7 WAR

Williams - 1.4 WAR

Suter - 1.3 WAR

Houser - 1.3 WAR