Goodbye, Old Windmill

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Ed Sedar will no longer be waving runners home.

 

https://twitter.com/Brewers/status/1324078979700195328

[trwi7]

Based on game threads I’m conservatively projecting an extra 10 wins with this news.

[markedman5]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/brewers-coaching-staff-quintin-berry.html

[patrickgpe]

lost in the shuffle is that Marcus Hamel is no longer a BP catcher.

[burnzy24]

Haines will return as hitting coach.

[patrickgpe]

Haines will return as hitting coach.

2020 was a goofy year and the brewers were not the only team that offensively struggled. I guess if CC and the players like him, figured it was a odd season and hopefully with a full camp and 162 game season, the ship can be righted. I just hope he has a narrow leash.

[Lathund]

I've never understood the obsession people have with 3B coaches. First the obvious point that their gameday job of waving runners home or putting up stop signs is only a small part of their job, as coaches they'll have another job like fielding instructors or coaching catchers or assisting the hitting coach etc. What they do in their role outside of their team's offensive innings is what matters.

 

And I understand the "windmill" criticism even less. Replace all 3B coaches with windmills for any situation that isn't an obvious stop or an obivous send, and scoring will increase. The average breakeven point for the success rate needed in order for sending the runner to be worthwhile is surpsingly low. And in an environment with fewer base hits on balls in play and more HR/BB/K it'll probably drop further. If anything I thought the Brewers were overall too conservative with base running (Not stealing, but overall baserunning) this past season. Whether that had anything at all to do with the decision to go a different direction is hard to know though.

 

As for Haines... well, I'm again of the opinion that it's extremely hard to know from the outside what impact a coach has or doesn't have. And that different personel, different external circumstances, injuries, age decline and other things will impact what hitters do. Simply a better or worse overall triple slash for a team says little of how good a job the coach did. At the same time though, other than a very good walk rate over his two years here, I don't see much positive development on the hitting side. Walking more is good, but ideally you'd like to see that come without one of the worst strikeout rates to go along with it. So it'd be one of the "Can't be sure it's his fault, but little to lose by making a change" situations for me. But not something I felt strongly about tbh so I'll just trust the team.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t remember Sedar being as obnoxious this past year....but I also didn’t watch a ton of games. Great guy...never liked him manning 3rd.

[homer]

Based on game threads I’m conservatively projecting an extra 10 wins with this news.

 

[MadThinker88]

Based on game threads I’m conservatively projecting an extra 10 wins with this news.

 

 

I was figuring there would be a parade planned & celebration taking place...

[PinaMadness]

Haines will return as hitting coach.

Well that cancels out the 10 extra wins.

[owbc]

I'm guessing an equal number runners will get sent home next year, assuming the Brewers go by the analytics. Sedar wasn't sending them on his own, there were instructions from above to be aggressive.

[Jopal78]

When a player is sent from third and whether they score isn't determined by solely by the coach waiving them around. I'm sure there is insider information on whose arms have to be respected and who you can run on. But even in those situations, sometimes a fielder gets off an excellent throw with perfect aim and the runner is out by a mile on what should have been a run scored. Or the cut-off man saves a run with an excellent relay play. They get no credit and take all the blame, but a 3rd base coach isn't just some guy out there waiving them around subjectively as he sees fit.

[adambr2]

I think it's hilarious that at a certain point in a guy's tenure you apparently just can't fire them which in turn becomes "transitioning to an advisory role", Melvin, Sedar, Ted Thompson, etc.

 

I'm not sure what this role entails but I would assume staying on for 100K or so to sit at a desk and smoke cigars. We could all only be so lucky.

[balsamlaker]

Moving Corredor (slated for the Biloxi staff in 2020) to a bullpen catching role seems like a good way to keep a valued staff member. Hanel was definitely a popular member of the team also, but I have to think bullpen catchers only last so long. The last game I was at, Sedar brought a couple of bags of sunflower seeds out for the fans to pass around. The "dill flavored" ones made it around the section a few times before the bag was emptied.

[MrTPlush]

I think it's hilarious that at a certain point in a guy's tenure you apparently just can't fire them which in turn becomes "transitioning to an advisory role", Melvin, Sedar, Ted Thompson, etc.

 

I'm not sure what this role entails but I would assume staying on for 100K or so to sit at a desk and smoke cigars. We could all only be so lucky.

 

After axing the entire social media team I think you are sadly mistaken if you think they are going to pay Sedar 6 figures just because they don’t want to fire him.

 

Also, at least for the GMs, I think those advisory roles are pretty legit...especially when the replacement is a rookie GM.

[adambr2]

I think it's hilarious that at a certain point in a guy's tenure you apparently just can't fire them which in turn becomes "transitioning to an advisory role", Melvin, Sedar, Ted Thompson, etc.

 

I'm not sure what this role entails but I would assume staying on for 100K or so to sit at a desk and smoke cigars. We could all only be so lucky.

 

After axing the entire social media team I think you are sadly mistaken if you think they are going to pay Sedar 6 figures just because they don’t want to fire him.

 

Also, at least for the GMs, I think those advisory roles are pretty legit...especially when the replacement is a rookie GM.

 

I don't literally mean that they have no responsibilities. I just imagine it's a pretty good gig. I don't think most of these guys are sticking around to continue working long hours and weeks.

[patrickgpe]

Drew Olson had a good point this AM on the way in. The 3rd base coach gets no praise for a "good send", the baserunner gets all of the credit. They always get 100% of the responsibility when a defense makes a perfect play and throws the guy out. Also I think fans are guilty of remembering the negative and not the positives plays.

[MrTPlush]

I guess it depends on the analytics and how many runners safe you need to actually make it worth it. There is no question, when comparing to the teams we faced, the Brewers had more "bad sends" where it ended up not even close. I think part of that was philosophy, but I also think Sedar just had lackluster judgement in many cases.

 

The thing is many of "bad sends" happen with 2 outs...so the probability of the next guy knocking him in aren't incredibly high. I would guess the success rate doesn't need to be very high to (analytically) come out ahead in the long run taking the risk.

[RightFieldCoder]

There is no question, when comparing to the teams we faced, the Brewers had more "bad sends" where it ended up not even close.

One problem with that line of thought is that all of the teams we face are running against the same quality of defense. Maybe the problem is more that the Brewers made less outstanding defensive plays to throw a guy out. Or maybe the Brewers have such a respected defense other teams don't test them.

 

I'm not saying the conclusion about the Brewers aggressiveness is wrong, only that the data used is incomplete. If Stearns/Counsell had a problem with the number of runners sent it would be addressed right away instead of waiting for an offseason coaching change.

[TURBO]

No matter what changes we make or don't make, there are always apologists for members of the coaching staff.

 

People complained about Haines all season, yet when the off season hit, some of the people that came to his aid were the same ones slamming him through out the season.

 

Same with the Windmill... Anyone who watches the Brewers on a regular basis knows, absolutely KNOWS that the guy makes a lot of bad decisions coaching 3B. Yet here we are, people defending him.

 

Just the way it is.

[sveumrules]

No matter what changes we make or don't make, there are always apologists for members of the coaching staff.

 

People complained about Haines all season, yet when the off season hit, some of the people that came to his aid were the same ones slamming him through out the season.

 

Same with the Windmill... Anyone who watches the Brewers on a regular basis knows, absolutely KNOWS that the guy makes a lot of bad decisions coaching 3B. Yet here we are, people defending him.

 

Just the way it is.

 

Some might argue it is impossible to absolutely KNOW anything, especially when it comes to something as subjective as judging the performance of a third base or hitting coach.

 

Sure, Sedar has made some terrible sends over the years. Has he made a lot? I probably get to see about 130 Brewers games in a regular season, which means there are 2,300 other MLB games I don't get to see.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd be interested in seeing numbers if anyone has them. My subjective view based on the games I saw last year was that he had fewer obvious outs last year at home; while I do remember many blatantly bad sends in years before.

 

And I guess if any year to be a windmill, last year was it. Hard to rely on getting ANOTHER hit when they were hard to come by.

[Jopal78]

It's completely subjective to try to grade a base coach. Sure, if Yasmani Grandal is chugging into 3rd as Jason Heyward has the ball it's probably not the best decision to send him. But I bet, Sedar did that hardly ever.

 

If it's Yelich coming towards 3rd, and Vlad Guerrero has the ball and Yelich is ultimately out by a mile, what can you do? 99% of coaches would likely send their best guy as well.

[PeaveyFury]

Yep. Completely subjective. To my knowledge there is no one out there 'grading' 3B coaches to even try to determine A)Their value in runs added/subtracted, or B)Their value relative to other 3B coaches. As such, they're a lightning rod that fan bases love to complain about. Their current guy is the absolute worst.... until they watch the next guy, and he's the absolute worst. Very similar to complaining about managers, IMO.