Trent Grisham wins Gold Glove

[pacopete4]

It was still a pretty giant choke job by Grisham.

 

Some would say the lights got too bright.

[TURBO]

It was still a pretty giant choke job by Grisham.

 

Some would say the lights got too bright.

 

[sveumrules]

I don't blame anyone for the Wild Card loss in 2019.

 

Hader had rough stretch from July 30 to August 17th where he gave up runs in six of seven appearances, but figured it out & finished the season with clean outings in 14 of 16 appearances totalling 19 IP with 32 K vs only 3 BB.

 

For the season as a whole he finished 3rd in FIP based WAR, 6th in runs allowed based WAR, 7th in Win Probability Added. His K% of 47.8 was six whole percentage points higher than the next best reliever in MLB, his WHIP of 0.81 the lowest, his .155 average against 2nd lowest in MLB.

 

Even after K - HBP - K - 1B - BB, there was no better option to face Soto in that spot. One of the best relievers in the game gave up a single to one of the best hitters in the game. Baseball happens.

 

As for Grisham, if he doesn't draw a leadoff walk before Yasmani's bomb that's one less run to begin with & the ball taking a weird skid past him in the outfield (Baseball happening again) is rendered even more irrelevent.

 

Baseball happened twice, in very quick succession, both breaking against the Brewers, I don't see why blame must be assigned for the whims of the Baseball Gods...

 

https://southerncrossreview.org/12/diamond.htm

[Lathund]

I'm probably the one who most said he is not a CF. I still say that. I claim SD would have saved runs with a better CF. The guys he was competing against were not good either (Bellinger!?). Good metrics may just be the result of playing in SD in the big outfield. Anyway, I saw him play CF in the same stadium, same opponents as Harrison and Ray and I still claim the latter two are better CF than Grisham. I always liked Grisham but as a corner.

 

I agree that he's not a very good CF. Good enough to play there? Yes, but probably not really better than average. He's fast, very fast even, so he'll always have good overall range which gives him a solid floor. But I've heard even SD fans (Who love him in general) worry about his routes and his catches. And the arm isn't very good. So average CF, above average RF or very good LF is what I think he is.

 

The decision to award gold gloves based on a combination of defensive metrics is one I would normally approve of, moving even further away from giving the awards to a good hitter who doesn't commit many errors as seemed to be how it was done historically. But even in a full season the sample sizes are on the small side (Combining metrics would help some with that I would think), and we just played ~1/3 of a season. One can look at Keon Broxton's 2018 or Cody Bellingers first 1-2 months in 2019 to see some issues with that; for example in terms of DRS, they racked up what would be close to GG numbers over a full season in a very short time. That reflects that they did make many plays, and probably some real high impact ones among them (I think Keon had like 2 HR robberies in a week and several other spectacular catches), but it's also very much a product of getting more opportunities than usual. The various defensive metrics use some way to categorize the plays and compare to similar plays etc, but that can suffer both from overy broad or overly narrow classifications; i.e sometimes a play is relatively routine but gets rewarded as if it was much harder, or vice versa. Point is, those kinds of things matter little once sample sizes are large enough, but in a 60-game season they can have a big enough impact (in either direction) that I would not take defensive metrics too seriously. If the metrics for Grisham show the same thing after 2021, then I'll believe he's improved.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

I'm not saying BF.net necessarily scapegoated Trent, but our FO apparently gave up on a 23-yr-old who played a SMALL part in an inning that will go down in infamy as part of the Brewers' continuing series of chokes in the postseason.

 

With Braunie possibly gone, and Davies still effective, I sure wish Stearns could call "take-back!" on that trade.

[TURBO]

I find it odd that so many can't accept the fact that Grisham, had he stayed with us, would have been a huge help this year.

 

I guess that some people deal with losing players that go on to be successful in other places differently.

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, we lost that trade in a HUGE, GIANT way...

 

Still a lot of time to see what happens in the end, but right now, it looks like we got fleeced.

 

I wish we still had Grisham, and I'm not afraid to say it.

[monty57]

I guess that some people deal with losing players that go on to be successful in other places differently.

 

And some people deal with small samples differently. This year seems to be worse than most for people basing opinions off of small samples. Gyorko's great, Garcia sucks, etc.

 

Last year at this time, posters were clamoring for an upgrade at shortstop because Arcia was the worst shortstop in baseball. Lots of stats were thrown around to "prove" that. When this trade was made, it was pretty much unanimous that we "fleeced" the Padres, as we picked up the young guy with the most potential, and exchanged one middle-of-the rotation starter for a younger one with more team control.

 

Now, after a pandemic-shortened 1/3 of a season, Arcia is just fine at shortstop, and we got fleeced in the trade because Grisham is going on to great things while Lauer and Urias are trash.

 

I hope Grisham does well, and maybe we did lose the trade, but these guys are young. A lot can happen, and we won't know the true outcome of this trade for years. Urias and Lauer both have track records that show they should be better than they looked this year, but time will tell. I'm not going to lose any sleep knowing that Grisham had a decent 60-game stretch.

[sveumrules]

I find it odd that so many can't accept the fact that Grisham, had he stayed with us, would have been a huge help this year.

 

I guess that some people deal with losing players that go on to be successful in other places differently.

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, we lost that trade in a HUGE, GIANT way...

 

Still a lot of time to see what happens in the end, but right now, it looks like we got fleeced.

 

I wish we still had Grisham, and I'm not afraid to say it.

 

But would he have been a huge help this year? I've read here that our hitting coach was terrible at his job & that's why our hitters drastically underperformed across the board. Or is Grisham so good that he would have transcended Haines's apparently lacking instruction?

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, 60 games have happened, so the Padres have won less than 10% of the total window of team control covered by the trade.

 

The only thing HUGE & GIANT is the remaining five years that will play a much larger role in determining who actually won the trade.

 

The Padres are currently up about 4 wins on the deal, if that is a fleecing what would you call the 20 wins we are up on the Yelich trade so far?

[TURBO]

As I said above:

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, we lost that trade in a HUGE, GIANT way...

[Jopal78]

I find it odd that so many can't accept the fact that Grisham, had he stayed with us, would have been a huge help this year.

 

I guess that some people deal with losing players that go on to be successful in other places differently.

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, we lost that trade in a HUGE, GIANT way...

 

Still a lot of time to see what happens in the end, but right now, it looks like we got fleeced.

 

I wish we still had Grisham, and I'm not afraid to say it.

 

But would he have been a huge help this year? I've read here that our hitting coach was terrible at his job & that's why our hitters drastically underperformed across the board. Or is Grisham so good that he would have transcended Haines's apparently lacking instruction?

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, 60 games have happened, so the Padres have won less than 10% of the total window of team control covered by the trade.

 

The only thing HUGE & GIANT is the remaining five years that will play a much larger role in determining who actually won the trade.

 

The Padres are currently up about 4 wins on the deal, if that is a fleecing what would you call the 20 wins we are up on the Yelich trade so far?

 

But it is more complicated than that. What is Urias's role on the Brewers in 2021.... undetermined at this time. What is Eric Lauer's role on the Brewers in 2021... undetermined at this time. Neither one of those players helped the Brewers in 2020.

 

On the contrary, what is Grisham's role with the Padres in 2021, he will be their everyday centerfielder. What is Davies's role with the Padres in 2021 he will take the ball every 5th day as a cog in their rotation. Grisham made 57 regular season starts, and played in 59 of 60 before starting all 6 playoff games. Davies lead the team in innings pitched in 2020 and made a start in each post season series.

 

Its fair if one wants to give Urias and Eric Lauer a mulligan for the Covid season, but the fact of the matter is Grisham and Davies not only outperformed their two counter-parts in the trade, their performance in 2020 has already solidified their roles going forward in San Diego. Meanwhile in Milwaukee, it's still a wait-and-see approach to find out where Urias and Lauer ultimately fit on the roster.

[monty57]

As I said above:

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, we lost that trade in a HUGE, GIANT way...

 

By that logic, you should probably never trade for prospects, because you will always lose that trade in a HUGE, GIANT way in the first year or so.

 

However, teams make trades for future potential all the time. Urias is 23, Grisham is 24. This season was 60 games. Grisham had 252 PA, and Urias had 120 after suffering through a broken bone and Covid. No one can make a valid judgement on which of these players will have the better career based on that.

 

I bet next season someone will hit a home run on opening day. We all know that doesn't mean he'll end up with 162 home runs. Any player can get hot or cold over a 60-game stretch, so we shouldn't get too worked up over this year.

[sveumrules]

60 games is about 37% of a regular 162 game season. When you consider extenuating circumstances like the pandemic, no fans in the stands, the season starting then stopping then starting back up again, the results deserve even more skepticism.

 

The sample is objectively neither HUGE nor GIANT, so I guess I don't see how the results can be accurately classified as such.

[StearnsFTW]

I'm not saying BF.net necessarily scapegoated Trent, but our FO apparently gave up on a 23-yr-old who played a SMALL part in an inning that will go down in infamy as part of the Brewers' continuing series of chokes in the postseason.

 

With Braunie possibly gone, and Davies still effective, I sure wish Stearns could call "take-back!" on that trade.

 

This isn't apparent at all.

 

They got what they believe is a tremendous player in return (as do I). We just haven't seen it yet. Trade is pretty terrible now, but most of the story hasn't been written.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I find it odd that so many can't accept the fact that Grisham, had he stayed with us, would have been a huge help this year.

 

I guess that some people deal with losing players that go on to be successful in other places differently.

 

Simple fact is, at this point in time, we lost that trade in a HUGE, GIANT way...

 

Still a lot of time to see what happens in the end, but right now, it looks like we got fleeced.

 

I wish we still had Grisham, and I'm not afraid to say it.

 

Is it possible to be simultaneously happy for Trent, and also optimistic/hopeful that Urias and Lauer turn out to be quality contributors for the Brewers? I'm having trouble seeing what the end goal is to your argument here. Did Grisham have a nice season? Yes. Could the Brewers have used him in 2020, especially considering Cain's opt-out? Yes. Did Urias show flashes in 2020 of perhaps being a valuable contributor in the future? Yes. Has Eric lauer had past Major League success that points to the possibility, if not probability, that he will valuable future contributor? Yes. is it possible that we look back at this deal 4-5 years from now and see that the Brewers got fleeced? Yes. Is it possible that we look back after that same time period and see that the Brewers fleeced the Padres. Also yes.

 

I will admit that the optics of this deal are not exactly stellar on the Brewers' end currently. But this deal wasn't a "win now" deal when it was made, and it still isn't a "win now" deal. It's quite possible that both teams will benefit from this deal. It is also possible that all four of these players either put up middling results or end up washing out in a few years. I think the best thing we can say right now is "Grisham looks like the best player currently, but we'll see."

[JohnBriggs12]

Had they not traded Grisham and Davies they would not have signed Garcia or Lindblom. Grisham and Davies combined for a 3.9 WAR. Garcia and Linblom were a combined -0.3. Four more wins and they don't face the Dodgers in round one. They also may have pursued Gregorius more aggressively. That would have added another win.

 

So yeah, they got fleeced. Big time.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Had they not traded Grisham and Davies they would not have signed Garcia or Lindblom. Grisham and Davies combined for a 3.9 WAR. Garcia and Linblom were a combined -0.3. Four more wins and they don't face the Dodgers in round one. They also may have pursued Gregorius more aggressively. That would have added another win.

 

So yeah, they got fleeced. Big time.

 

It seems like a rather huge assumption to say that Grisham and Davies would have had the same WAR with the 2020 Brewers that they had with the 2020 Padres.

 

Also, as pointed out in my post above, I think it is obvious that this deal was not made with 2020, and only 202, in mind. But then, you know that.

[homer]

At the end of the day it's still a 60 game sample. So yeah, they were fleeced for 60 games I guess.

[pacopete4]

I like Lindblom. I'm excited to see him next year in a full season. Beyond that, anyone getting upset from this move right now needs to take a deep breath. Way too early to really know much of anything and basing it on a 60-game season is not a sound way to look at things. Urias could absolutely stink but I don't believe he will. We shall see.

[PeaveyFury]

Is it possible to be simultaneously happy for Trent, and also optimistic/hopeful that Urias and Lauer turn out to be quality contributors for the Brewers? "

 

Among a fan base? Probably not. We're all too obsessed with rankings and 'winning' a trade. Even more so, we're obsessed with winning a trade immediately.

 

Take how John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander looked after ~60 games. Doyle Alexander put up 4.4 WAR in August/September for Detroit and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting. Yet we know who actually won the trade.

[xisxisxis]

I'm not saying BF.net necessarily scapegoated Trent, but our FO apparently gave up on a 23-yr-old who played a SMALL part in an inning that will go down in infamy as part of the Brewers' continuing series of chokes in the postseason.

 

With Braunie possibly gone, and Davies still effective, I sure wish Stearns could call "take-back!" on that trade.

 

I don't even know what you wrote, I'm too jazzed that there's been a GSP sighting at BF.net.

 

GENO!!!! Welcome Back Brother!

[LouisEly]

I don't even know what you wrote, I'm too jazzed that there's been a GSP sighting at BF.net.

 

GENO!!!! Welcome Back Brother!

Check out the thread from the last game of the "Wild Card" series:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=65&t=39964

 

Several old timers who haven't been heard from in years showed up.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Really, my dear old friend xis, who gives a rat's ass what I wrote? I'm just glad to be able to drop back in again.

 

If someone in a position of power around here can help me change my name back, and lose that 8 in my moniker, I'll really feel like Geno Selig-Prieb again.

 

And once that happens, a stream of drunken rants will be released, not unlike a grand enema of free speech!

[xisxisxis]

Really, my dear old friend xis, who gives a rat's ass what I wrote? I'm just glad to be able to drop back in again.

 

If someone in a position of power around here can help me change my name back, and lose that 8 in my moniker, I'll really feel like Geno Selig-Prieb again.

 

And once that happens, a stream of drunken rants will be released, not unlike a grand enema of free speech!

So basically, who do you have to ______ around here to get that done? Good luck with the re-re-re-rebranding, but If you can get the old GenoSeligPrieb back then "Woaah Solvd III".

[Eye Black]

I hope Grisham does well, and maybe we did lose the trade, but these guys are young. A lot can happen, and we won't know the true outcome of this trade for years. Urias and Lauer both have track records that show they should be better than they looked this year, but time will tell. I'm not going to lose any sleep knowing that Grisham had a decent 60-game stretch.

I completely agree. Maybe the Brewers lost the trade, but that isn’t something we’ll know definitively for some time. Grisham was fantastic offensively through his first 30 games, but over the second half of the short season (final 30 regular season games) he hit just .231/.323/.380 for a .702 OPS.

 

His defense was surprisingly good. He got great jumps and made some nice plays on balls that looked like sure hits. His arm strength remains his weakest defensive trait.

 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Grisham is someone that pitchers make successful adjustments against. The part of his transformation that gets all of the credit is the change back to his old golf grip, but the one that probably had a bigger impact on his results was in the Brewers organization when he started focusing on hitting the ball out in front of the plate. That change seemingly corresponded with a switch that flipped on for him. Using that approach he crushed fastballs this season. The one thing I would worry about is whether he will continue having trouble hitting offspeed pitches (he had a .163 BA and .245 SLG on at-bats that ended with an offspeed pitch). It sort of makes sense that an approach that relies heavily on jumping on pitches would find changeups to be kryptonite. I’ll be curious to see how he gets pitched next season now that teams have more video on him.