Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect & Farm System Rankings (for 2021)

[Soupbone]

So what will it take for the Brewers to move up in the rankings? Maybe they always will snub our prospects in spite of the help they bring to the big league club.

[BallFour]

It was a very interesting read. The system has a ton of players with the likelihood of playing in the MLB. I found it interesting they had Hedbert down in the teens.

 

 

He has always been down on Hedbert, with a 30 grade arm tagging him with a LF only. I think one of the largest gaps in evaluation has to be Hedbert. Ben Badler from BA loves him and Eric really has been low on him. And if he really does have him as LF only with swing and miss then he probably is ranked appropriately.

 

What I find incredibly intriguing is the Jeferson Quero evaluation, now that is something to get really excited about.

[umphrey]

Can you imagine trading Small for an 18 yo catcher in rookie ball? Really questionable ranking tbh. Seems like he was trying to make a statement.

[sveumrules]

Can you imagine trading Small for an 18 yo catcher in rookie ball? Really questionable ranking tbh. Seems like he was trying to make a statement.

 

Both are listed as 45 FV, so they are essentially ranked the same. The order within each FV tier just represents personal preference.

 

Small has a much higher floor for sure, but most see his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. Quero has a lot more uncertainy as a teenager yet to play stateside, but also has the upside of a starting catcher, which is more valuable than a mid rotation SP considering the paucity of backstops leaguewide.

 

Francisco Alvarez was a teenage catcher in rookie ball two years ago, now he's a consensus Top 50 prospect in MLB.

[RWeeksFan23]

FanGraphs list dropped today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-42-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

 

Just digging in now, but here is the System Overview...

 

The Brewers didn’t have a sexy 2020 draft, instead taking a bunch of good value college players, and a couple of them really impressed scouts this spring, namely Wiemer and Warren. The velo gains of many older arms in the org are an indication to stay on the generic, four-pitch guys who sit about 90 just in case they eventually add a little something extra and become relevant. It’s perhaps more important to identify when the older guys are breaking out because there’s a narrow window of time between when those guys pop and when they’re in the big leagues. There’s a larger window to properly identify younger breakout guys.

 

My international sources are a little less apt to scout in Venezuela, and that might be contributing to my underrating some of the players in this system. I didn’t have as much background with Quero, Chourio, or Hedbert when they were amateurs, and it took a lot of in-person looks to properly slot them. It’s notable that this org is so active there.

 

Fastball carry and angle still rule the day in this org, with the Houston front office DNA obviously driving their player acquisition patterns. The Brewers also seem more likely to target players with either superlative contact rates or big top-end exit velocities more than they would like to take someone who has a generic blend of both.

I feel like I have decent knowledge of our farm system, I read the minor league link reports daily, etc., yet I've literally never heard of four of our top nine prospects on this list...

[Lathund]

With all of the team overviews finally complete, Fangraphs has a pre-draft farm system rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

 

For the first time in a while, Brewers aren't in the bottom 5. There is also this from the article about it:

Teams ranked low who I think have players destined for huge growth includes the Cubs, Angels and Brewers because of the young players they have at Low-A and on the complex right now.

 

 

Baseball Prospectus also put out an updated top 50 (Though one that excludes players currently in the majors that are still rookie-eligible, hence no Franco) which features Garrett Mitchell at 46.

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/68138/2021-prospects-the-midseason-top-50/

[Mass Haas]

Milwaukee Brewers 2021 Midseason Top 50 Prospects

David Gasper, Prospects1500.com

[sveumrules]

Milwaukee Brewers 2021 Midseason Top 50 Prospects

David Gasper, Prospects1500.com

 

Thanks for posting, Mass. Will be interesting to see how it compares to the BF.net Midseason Top 25.

 

One thing I noticed reading through the blurbs is it appears the author calculated K% based off of ABs instead of PAs, noting both Dillard & McGee strikeout around 40% of the time, when their actual rates are closer to 33%.

[Smichaelis9]

Prospects Live released their top 30 Brewers prospects today

 

Really enjoyed this write up. I love the individual evaluators giving in depth breakdowns on each of the tools for every player. Interesting that they had some players much higher and much lower than the industry overall. I recommend reading through each report if you have time. Also, the Hedbert hype train does not stop rolling!

Prospects Live released their midseason update today

 

The newcomers didn’t get any scouting report, but you can still see the preseason reports for all of the guys who remained on the list.

[clancyphile]

Can you imagine trading Small for an 18 yo catcher in rookie ball? Really questionable ranking tbh. Seems like he was trying to make a statement.

 

Both are listed as 45 FV, so they are essentially ranked the same. The order within each FV tier just represents personal preference.

 

Small has a much higher floor for sure, but most see his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. Quero has a lot more uncertainy as a teenager yet to play stateside, but also has the upside of a starting catcher, which is more valuable than a mid rotation SP considering the paucity of backstops leaguewide.

 

Francisco Alvarez was a teenage catcher in rookie ball two years ago, now he's a consensus Top 50 prospect in MLB.

 

I wonder if Small might be ripe as a Hader replacement in the "fireman" role. I could see him, Devin Williams, Ashby, Suter, Barker, and Luna as anchoring a shut-down bullpen. Matulovich and Cam Robinson have also looked good, and I wonder if Dylan File, Bettinger, and others might not slide to the pen.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

Baseball America released their organizational minor league rankings.

 

Milwaukee is up to #22.

 

Milwaukee is the first organization to appear who only has 2 top 100 rankings. there are teams below them with higher ranked top 100 prospects but the depth at the low levels seems to be pushing the brewers higher. I think a strong finish to the year at the rookie levels (looking at you hedbert, quero, mendez, etc.) and they may push into the lower teens.

[sveumrules]

Baseball America released their organizational minor league rankings.

 

Milwaukee is up to #22.

 

Milwaukee is the first organization to appear who only has 2 top 100 rankings. there are teams below them with higher ranked top 100 prospects but the depth at the low levels seems to be pushing the brewers higher. I think a strong finish to the year at the rookie levels (looking at you hedbert, quero, mendez, etc.) and they may push into the lower teens.

 

Nice to see the Brewers climbing up the rankings a little bit.

 

The MLB roster is pretty stacked with controllable talent that either graduated from the system or was acquired via dealing prospects...

 

Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Hader, Williams, Suter, Cousins, Sanchez, Narvaez, Rowdy, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Taylor

 

The high minors are kind of slim, but Ashby, Turang, Mitchell, Small and even Feliciano all have floors of MLB players with varying degrees of upside beyond that & have already started trickling into MLB with the rest likely to get at least a taste by 2022.

 

Then there is the collection of hitting talent in the low minors, which while lacking in the sure things like Braun/Fielder, might be the most exciting group of position players coming up since the early Melvin years.

 

Throw in the leaps & bounds that have been made in developing pitching since Stearns & company arrived and I can't really think of a time when the organization was in a better position to maintain long term competetiveness.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Baseball America released their organizational minor league rankings.

 

Milwaukee is up to #22.

 

Milwaukee is the first organization to appear who only has 2 top 100 rankings. there are teams below them with higher ranked top 100 prospects but the depth at the low levels seems to be pushing the brewers higher. I think a strong finish to the year at the rookie levels (looking at you hedbert, quero, mendez, etc.) and they may push into the lower teens.

 

Nice to see the Brewers climbing up the rankings a little bit.

 

The MLB roster is pretty stacked with controllable talent that either graduated from the system or was acquired via dealing prospects...

 

Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Hader, Williams, Suter, Cousins, Sanchez, Narvaez, Rowdy, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Taylor

 

The high minors are kind of slim, but Ashby, Turang, Mitchell, Small and even Feliciano all have floors of MLB players with varying degrees of upside beyond that & have already started trickling into MLB with the rest likely to get at least a taste by 2022.

 

Then there is the collection of hitting talent in the low minors, which while lacking in the sure things like Braun/Fielder, might be the most exciting group of position players coming up since the early Melvin years.

 

Throw in the leaps & bounds that have been made in developing pitching since Stearns & company arrived and I can't really think of a time when the organization was in a better position to maintain long term competetiveness.

I completely agree on the hitting prospects. That being said, as good as the Brewers have been with pitchers of late, the scarcity of pitching prospects below AAA is probably the biggest weakness.

 

You could make a case that the best pitching prospects at Biloxi are a guy who was part of the COVID purge and another guy anonymous enough coming into the year that I mistakenly thought he had been. Similarly at Wisconsin, I'd say the best one is an UDFA reliever. At Carolina once you get past Kelly, especially with Uribe on the 60-day IL, maybe Cam Robinson or the newly promoted Jefferson Figueroa? Plus there are maybe five guys on the ACL rosters who look to ready for full season ball next year.

 

They need some combination of this year's draft picks, the guys who have been injured most of this season and some of the young guys in the complex leagues to develop to keep a bit of balance in the organization.

[mattyo]

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-prospects-updated-midseason-rankings?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Mitchell #56??????????????

Frelick #97

[brooks_quichenick]

MLB Pipeline’s new Top 100 has Mitchell at 56 and Frelick at 97.

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

[wibadgers23]

MLB Pipeline’s new Top 100 has Mitchell at 56 and Frelick at 97.

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

 

And no Turang? Kinda surprising.

[umphrey]

I feel like Turang is going to fall hard next year. He is under performing the Orlando Arcia trajectory at the moment.

[umphrey]

The Athletic posted a sneaky top 10 in a low key article that included Wiemer and Mendez