Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect & Farm System Rankings (for 2021)

[Smichaelis9]

Couple other Brewers tidbits from the FanGraphs Top 100 chat yesterday...

 

MB: Can you talk more about Ashby being the top Brewers prospect? Wasn’t expecting that.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Turang was a fairly late cut from the list. He and Ashby were very close on the ordinal rankings. I think Turang has a shot to be a 50 based on his glove and OBP skills, but I think there’s real risk of him just getting blown away by velo at the top of the zone because of how deep those hands load, and that his “patience” may by passivity. So he fell out but you could argue him as a 50.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Garrett Mitchell still has his pre-draft 45+ FV grade. Basically he’s Travis Swaggerty (speed, CF, raw power, not sure if he’ll get to it in games) just several levels behind Swag.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Ashby was nasty in the Fall. If you put him in Milwaukee’s bullpen tomorrow, I bet he’d be awesome in a leveraged role, and he has a long-term chance to start as a strikeout-heavy five and dive type

 

Eric A Longenhagen: and I’ll just take that guy rather than bet on Mitchell’s swing changing

 

Keith P.: Thanks for your work, Eric. How close was Hedbert Perez to your Top 100 and do you see him as a threat to make the list next year?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that close, he’ll be a 40+ FV for me this offseason. LF only, 30 arm. Chance for hit/power combo, tho. Saw him a handful of times in the Fall and thought he was pretty interesting, just not a beast.

 

Small & Mitchell also both listed in the Picks to Click article published today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2022-top-100/

“30 arm” for Hedbert is shocking, since we’ve been seeing 50-60 on his arm since Ben Badler originally wrote about him...

[MadThinker88]

Couple other Brewers tidbits from the FanGraphs Top 100 chat yesterday...

 

MB: Can you talk more about Ashby being the top Brewers prospect? Wasn’t expecting that.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Turang was a fairly late cut from the list. He and Ashby were very close on the ordinal rankings. I think Turang has a shot to be a 50 based on his glove and OBP skills, but I think there’s real risk of him just getting blown away by velo at the top of the zone because of how deep those hands load, and that his “patience” may by passivity. So he fell out but you could argue him as a 50.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Garrett Mitchell still has his pre-draft 45+ FV grade. Basically he’s Travis Swaggerty (speed, CF, raw power, not sure if he’ll get to it in games) just several levels behind Swag.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Ashby was nasty in the Fall. If you put him in Milwaukee’s bullpen tomorrow, I bet he’d be awesome in a leveraged role, and he has a long-term chance to start as a strikeout-heavy five and dive type

 

Eric A Longenhagen: and I’ll just take that guy rather than bet on Mitchell’s swing changing

 

Keith P.: Thanks for your work, Eric. How close was Hedbert Perez to your Top 100 and do you see him as a threat to make the list next year?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that close, he’ll be a 40+ FV for me this offseason. LF only, 30 arm. Chance for hit/power combo, tho. Saw him a handful of times in the Fall and thought he was pretty interesting, just not a beast.

 

Small & Mitchell also both listed in the Picks to Click article published today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2022-top-100/

“30 arm” for Hedbert is shocking, since we’ve been seeing 50-60 on his arm since Ben Badler originally wrote about him...

 

Right here is the reason I try to look at multiple prospect reports per player. My hope is to see at least 4 (hopefully 5 or more) different reports/ rankings for a player & a farm system.

 

Perhaps the day Hedbert was seen he had a bad day or made a couple poor throws. Or he had a great day and made every play & throw possible. I would rather believe multiple reports indicating something good (or bad) for a player then bank on 1 report/ ranking.

[Jopal78]

I always get a bang out of these Farm System ratings, not that they're wrong but because they are so arbitrary. Is Milwaukee 28th because they have no blue chippers on the cusp of the major leagues, or is there a general lack of measurable talent up and down?

 

Hypothetically speaking, what if Feliciano, Turang and Aaron Ashby all go out and burn up AA, is the Brewers system going to suddenly jump 15 spots going into 2022 because they will then have 3 potential impact prospects at AAA on the cusp of the majors?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I always get a bang out of these Farm System ratings, not that they're wrong but because they are so arbitrary. Is Milwaukee 28th because they have no blue chippers on the cusp of the major leagues, or is there a general lack of measurable talent up and down?

 

Hypothetically speaking, what if Feliciano, Turang and Aaron Ashby all go out and burn up AA, is the Brewers system going to suddenly jump 15 spots going into 2022 because they will then have 3 potential impact prospects at AAA on the cusp of the majors?

 

I think it all comes down to hype in the end. Many of these systems are great at hyping their minor league players. The Brewers don't go that route. I've personally been very pleased with what the system has produced the last few years. How many other teams in MLB have had a guy get ROY votes, then follow it up with a guy who actually won ROY?

[MadThinker88]

I think it all comes down to hype in the end. Many of these systems are great at hyping their minor league players. The Brewers don't go that route. I've personally been very pleased with what the system has produced the last few years. How many other teams in MLB have had a guy get ROY votes, then follow it up with a guy who actually won ROY?

 

Please don't put to much credence in the ROY vote:

 

Mike Hargrove over George Brett

Pat Listach over Kenny Lofton

Bob Hamelin over Manny Ramirez

 

All those happened and were wrong...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it all comes down to hype in the end. Many of these systems are great at hyping their minor league players. The Brewers don't go that route. I've personally been very pleased with what the system has produced the last few years. How many other teams in MLB have had a guy get ROY votes, then follow it up with a guy who actually won ROY?

 

Please don't put to much credence in the ROY vote:

 

Mike Hargrove over George Brett

Pat Listach over Kenny Lofton

Bob Hamelin over Manny Ramirez

 

All those happened and were wrong...

 

Those are all very debatable. It isn't a "who ended up being better in hindsight" award, it is a Rookie of the Year award.

 

Also, that has absolutely nothing to do with the argument I was making. Both Hiura and Williams are huge contributors to the Brewers who have, at least so far, backed up the votes.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, the Brewers had a higher ranked farm when Stearns & company got here, but a lot of that was guys like Brinson, Harrison, Diaz & Phillips who were dealt.

 

Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Williams, Peralta, Suter, Houser, Rasmussen, Hiura & Arcia have all graduated in the Stearns era & all look to be in a position to contribute to the 2021 team. Pretty much the only bad eval so far is Grisham at this point, but hopefully Urias will get a chance to make some headway on that one this year.

 

Speaking of dark horses for 2021 how about Alec Bettinger? 157 K vs only 35 BB in 146 IP at AA as a 23 year old last time we saw him in 2019 & just checked in at #49 on the ZiPS Top 100. Before Chris Mitchell got hired by the Twins lots of Brewers showed up on his statistics based KATOH system, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers internal evals on Alec are higher than most public sources. Ashby also came in at #79...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/

[Eye Black]

“30 arm” for Hedbert is shocking, since we’ve been seeing 50-60 on his arm since Ben Badler originally wrote about him...

Baseball America currently has a 60 grade on Hedbert’s arm. I respect Longenhagen a ton and he’s gotten in-person looks at Hedbert, but the same can be said for Ben Badler of Baseball America. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a wider grade gap between two individuals that have the sort of access to in-person looks and industry contacts that Longenhagen and Badler do. I’m truly perplexed on this one, and curious to see how it evolves. Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle?

[MadThinker88]

Regarding Hedbert & his throwing arm...

 

Prospect361 - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm

 

PitcherList - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm

 

Athlon Sports 2021 MLB preview - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm

 

Keith Law (Athletic) - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm. He does suggest that Hedbert is going to be a corner OF and will need to work to avoid getting too big for the position.

 

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm. He does list Hedbert as CF..

 

Baseball Prospectus - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm.

 

Anyone got access to any other sources for focused review??

[MadThinker88]

I see that BP released its farm system rankings on 2/17/21

Article is behind the paywall. Here is what was written:

 

28. Milwaukee Brewers

Strengths: Upside dotted across their top 10

Weaknesses: It’s very shallow, even for a bottom five system

 

Like every list I have found so far, Tampa is #1 and Washington is #30

[Smichaelis9]

Regarding Hedbert & his throwing arm...

 

Prospect361 - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm

 

PitcherList - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm

 

Athlon Sports 2021 MLB preview - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm

 

Keith Law (Athletic) - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm. He does suggest that Hedbert is going to be a corner OF and will need to work to avoid getting too big for the position.

 

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm. He does list Hedbert as CF..

 

Baseball Prospectus - nothing said (good or bad) about his arm / no rating given on the arm.

 

Anyone got access to any other sources for focused review??

MLB.com did have a 55 grade on his arm for last year's rankings, saying, " His accurate, above-average arm is a weapon up the middle and qualifies him to play either outfield corner." I'm curious if that will have changed going into the 2021 season, since they likely got some actual looks at him in instructs.

 

Prospects Live gave it a 60 grade and said, "Will uncork big time arm strength with ease. Gets good carry on his throws and doesn't need to sell out. Will rush throws on occasion and lose some accuracy, but overall the profile will play at all three outfield spots"

[wibadgers23]

Any chance Small and Ashby skip AA and start the season in Nashville?

[sveumrules]

Over the last three seasons the Orioles have won an MLB worst 126 games. Things don't look much better this year as they are projected as a bottom 3/4 team for 2021 by both BPro & FanGraphs.

 

Seriously, go look at their roster, three years of being the worst team in MLB & you have to squint to see a foundational piece on the team. Maybe someone(s) out of the Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle trio turns into something(s)? It's not that different from reading the Indians roster in Major League.

 

What does three seasons of being the worst team in MLB get you? A prospect list like this...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-45-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

 

Wow. Adley & Grayson sound like absolute studs. Of course we never had a chance to draft either on account of winning too many games. After that the O's farm isn't really all that much better than ours.

 

Doesn't seem like ends really justify the means to this point, maybe in a couple two tree more years.

[brooks_quichenick]

I was not sure where to post this but oh well. Maybe I am overthinking this but Antoine Kelly reposted a thoracic outlet syndrome information post on his Instagram story today. While this does not come with an extremely long recovery time if he is in fact experiencing this issue, the track record for success after a return is not very good.

 

Apparently you were not overthinking this, as Adam McCalvy reports that Antoine did indeed have thoracic outlet surgery this winter:

 

 

[MadThinker88]

MLB Pipeline put out their full report today (free content)

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-farm-system-rankings

 

MKE at 28th.

 

(From the article)

28. Milwaukee Brewers

2020 midseason rank: 28

2020 preseason rank: 29

Top 100 Prospects: Garrett Mitchell (No. 65), Brice Turang (No. 96)

Top 2021 rookie: Justin Topa, RHP

 

The Brewers have multiple players on the Top 100 for the first time since 2018, giving them two up-the-middle premium to lead a Top 30 that’s almost entirely homegrown (29 of the Top 30) and has a lot more bats (21) than arms (nine).

[JosephC]

Antoine Kelly still has youth on his side but thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is generally bad news. Downgrade him due to injury and the Brewer's minor league system looks just awful in terms of pitching. Small, Ashby and............

[sveumrules]

Antoine Kelly still has youth on his side but thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is generally bad news. Downgrade him due to injury and the Brewer's minor league system looks just awful in terms of pitching. Small, Ashby and............

 

Before the 2016 season, the BF.Net Top 25 featured the following pitchers...

 

Jorge Lopez (#3), Hader (#5), Medeiros (#8), Ponce (#10), Devin Williams (#12), Davies (#14), Diplan (#18), Kirby (#19) and Houser (#21).

 

Brent Suter (#29), Freddy Peralta (#40), Brandon Woodruff (#42) didn't make the cut & Corbin Burnes was still a few months from being drafted.

 

Just because the system only has two "name" pitching prospects doesn't mean that it won't continue to produce MLB caliber arms from the lower ranks.

 

With over half the staff already filled with guys that graduated from the system & are under control for the foreseeable future, plus Stearns & company seeming to have demonstrated a knack for developing arms since their arrival, I think the long term outlook for the pitching staff is about as bright as its been in franchise history.

[clancyphile]

Antoine Kelly still has youth on his side but thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is generally bad news. Downgrade him due to injury and the Brewer's minor league system looks just awful in terms of pitching. Small, Ashby and............

 

Before the 2016 season, the BF.Net Top 25 featured the following pitchers...

 

Jorge Lopez (#3), Hader (#5), Medeiros (#8), Ponce (#10), Devin Williams (#12), Davies (#14), Diplan (#18), Kirby (#19) and Houser (#21).

 

Brent Suter (#29), Freddy Peralta (#40), Brandon Woodruff (#42) didn't make the cut & Corbin Burnes was still a few months from being drafted.

 

Just because the system only has two "name" pitching prospects doesn't mean that it won't continue to produce MLB caliber arms from the lower ranks.

 

With over half the staff already filled with guys that graduated from the system & are under control for the foreseeable future, plus Stearns & company seeming to have demonstrated a knack for developing arms since their arrival, I think the long term outlook for the pitching staff is about as bright as its been in franchise history.

 

And some "contributed" in other ways.

Lopez was part of the Moustakas deal.

Medeiros brought in Soria.

Ponce brought Lyles over,

 

Lots of ways for a prospect to help a team.

[MadThinker88]

With the minor league season finally underway, Bleacher Report finally put out its start of season farm rankings. This is free content.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2942438-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-at-the-start-of-2021-milb-season

 

MKE at #25

 

Here is the rest of the NL Central

Chi Cubs at #22

Cinci at #15

Pitts at #9

St. Louis at #21

 

They also updated the top 10 prospects in each organization & gave a system snapshot.

Top 10 Prospects

 

Name Age Tier

1. OF Garrett Mitchell 22 1

2. SS/2B Brice Turang 21 2

3. OF Hedbert Perez 18 2

4. LHP Ethan Small 24 2

5. C Mario Feliciano 22 2

6. LHP Antoine Kelly 21 3

7. LHP Aaron Ashby 22 3

8. SS Freddy Zamora 22 3

9. C Jeferson Quero 18 3

10. OF Tristen Lutz 22 3

 

Farm System Snapshot

 

The Brewers may have walked away with the biggest steal of the 2020 draft when they selected UCLA outfielder Garrett Mitchell with the No. 20 overall pick. He's still working to tap into his power potential, but even if he never hits a ton of home runs, his speed, center field defense and hit tool give him an extremely high floor.

 

If you're looking for the next teenage phenom to rocket up leaguewide top-100 prospect rankings, outfielder Hedbert Perez has that type of upside. With five above-average tools and some valuable experience gained as the youngest player at the team's alternate site last year, his pro debut will be among the most anticipated of 2021.

[wibadgers23]

Baseball America updated their top 100 list and actually had Turang and Mitchell drop in the rankings to 78 and 79 respectively. No new Brewers in the top 100.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs list dropped today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-42-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

 

Just digging in now, but here is the System Overview...

 

The Brewers didn’t have a sexy 2020 draft, instead taking a bunch of good value college players, and a couple of them really impressed scouts this spring, namely Wiemer and Warren. The velo gains of many older arms in the org are an indication to stay on the generic, four-pitch guys who sit about 90 just in case they eventually add a little something extra and become relevant. It’s perhaps more important to identify when the older guys are breaking out because there’s a narrow window of time between when those guys pop and when they’re in the big leagues. There’s a larger window to properly identify younger breakout guys.

 

My international sources are a little less apt to scout in Venezuela, and that might be contributing to my underrating some of the players in this system. I didn’t have as much background with Quero, Chourio, or Hedbert when they were amateurs, and it took a lot of in-person looks to properly slot them. It’s notable that this org is so active there.

 

Fastball carry and angle still rule the day in this org, with the Houston front office DNA obviously driving their player acquisition patterns. The Brewers also seem more likely to target players with either superlative contact rates or big top-end exit velocities more than they would like to take someone who has a generic blend of both.

[Luke99]

It was a very interesting read. The system has a ton of players with the likelihood of playing in the MLB. I found it interesting they had Hedbert down in the teens.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Sorry, drooled a little bit after reading this..."Uribe has one of the most electric arms in all the minors and he’s been up to 103 this year. One. Zero. Three. " He's got a 80/80 fastball. Can't wait to see him in Milwaukee.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Interesting list, especially how high he is on Olson. Still felt weird having a list that goes that deep and not seeing guys like Cousins or Sanchez who aren't exactly looking overmatched in the big leagues right now.

[sveumrules]

Interesting list, especially how high he is on Olson. Still felt weird having a list that goes that deep and not seeing guys like Cousins or Sanchez who aren't exactly looking overmatched in the big leagues right now.

 

Yeah, seems like if Topa is a 40 FV hurt that two guys with the same general profile, but currently putting up MLB zeroes (in tiny samples, granted) should probably at least be slotted higher in the 40 FV tier or maybe even towards the bottom of the 40+ FV tier.