Misc. Offseason Brewers Prospect & Farm System Rankings (for 2021)

[MadThinker88]

Keith Law put up his top 100 prospects today:

 

https://theathletic.com/2338178/2021/01/28/keith-law-top-100-prospects-2021/

 

Brewers related:

95. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee, Age: 22

96. Brice Turang, SS, Milwaukee, Age: 21

The Rays had 8 players in the top 70 of that list. Sort of incredible to think the Brewers have two top 100 prospects, but they would rank #9 and #10 in the Rays system.

 

The Rays still have a top 3 farm system (likely the best)

The MKE pair would be 6 & 7 in the CLE system..

 

Keith Law's Top 100 & Cleveland prospects making the list:

12. Triston McKenzie (RHP)

42. Bo Naylor ©

76. George Valera (OF)

78. Tyler Freeman (SS/2B)

86. Nolan Jones (3B/ OF)

99. Brayan Rocchio (SS)

 

To think neither Gabriel Arias (SDP/ Clevinger trade) or Andres Gimenez (NyM/ Lindor trade) are eligible for on the list. This is why flipping Amed Rosario is even a possible consideration for CLE..

[wibadgers23]

Mitchell comes in at 65 and Turang at 96 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list.

[MadThinker88]

Mitchell comes in at 65 and Turang at 96 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list.

 

In case anyone wants to follow the entire listing be released tonight..

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-100-prospects-list-for-2021

[Eye Black]

Mitchell comes in at 65 and Turang at 96 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list.

 

In case anyone wants to follow the entire listing be released tonight..

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-100-prospects-list-for-2021

Quite a bit different overall from the Keith Law list. Looks like just three Indians made this MLB Pipeline top 100 list, Nolan Jones (#36), Triston McKenzie (#51), SS Tyler Freeman (#98).

[MadThinker88]

Mitchell comes in at 65 and Turang at 96 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list.

 

In case anyone wants to follow the entire listing be released tonight..

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-100-prospects-list-for-2021

Quite a bit different overall from the Keith Law list. Looks like just three Indians made this MLB Pipeline top 100 list, Nolan Jones (#36), Triston McKenzie (#51), SS Tyler Freeman (#98).

 

True and only 7 TB Rays in total and 3 of those were between #84 & #90....

[Lathund]

Having followed them for a few years now, it always seems to me like the MLB Pipeline lists tend to put more weight on the draft positions. Early round picks will always show up high on the team lists (and some in the overall lists) and always (or nearly always) in the same order they were taken. More inertia in the system. Which is neither good or bad, just is. But also tends to lead to them differing somewhat from BA/Fangraphs/BP for example. And Keith Law will do his own thing.

[MadThinker88]

Having followed them for a few years now, it always seems to me like the MLB Pipeline lists tend to put more weight on the draft positions. Early round picks will always show up high on the team lists (and some in the overall lists) and always (or nearly always) in the same order they were taken. More inertia in the system. Which is neither good or bad, just is. But also tends to lead to them differing somewhat from BA/Fangraphs/BP for example. And Keith Law will do his own thing.

 

Good way to put it..

Each ranking/ listing has some built in bias/ flaws. That is why it is a good practice to look at multiple sources to hopefully get a more well rounded picture (be it of the MKE prospects/ or top 100 prospects/ or the ranking of farm systems).

[Lathund]

Not prospect rankings per se, but the PECOTA spreadsheet was published today. That is the raw data without playing time or park adjustments or anything. It's basically projecting a ton of players from each organization, and former players who haven't appeared for other teams; so Brewers list includes Matt Albers and Brett Anderson, Cubs has Addison Russell and so forth. From a "prospect" point of view it's interesting because while Yelich and Cain as #1 and #2 in terms of WARP on the team is hardly surprising, #3 and #4 are... Luis Castro and Cooper Hummel. Which is quite surprising tbh, even if Hummel hit very well in AA in 2019 and Castro absolutely crushed it in A+ (1.001 OPS in 475 PAs). Yet Hummel was unprotected (and wasn't taken) in the Rule 5 draft, and Castro was let go by the Rockies after that monster season. So you'dthink that the teams don't really expect their performance to carry up the levels. But PECOTA does. For comparison, Castro isn't projected by ZiPS, while ZiPS projects Hummel for 76 wRc+.

 

Now purely looking at minor league stats without context is a bad way to scout, but projections like this can still be of some interest to use alongside scouting. Projections will after all look at which minor league statistical attributes tend to best correlate with major league success and such. What they'll miss are players who hit well because they're older, stronger or simply feasting on poor control and underdeveloped changeups.

 

I have absolutely no idea how the Brewers view either of these two players, just thought it was curious enough to share.

[Smichaelis9]

Mitchell comes in at 65 and Turang at 96 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list.

Based on this Tweet it sounds like Hedbert wasn’t too far away from the top 100. Would be pretty cool to see him crack it at the mid season update! Talk about a crazy climb since being signed. Obviously Baseball America was all over it from the start, but nobody else saw him coming. Could end up being one helluva find by the Crew.

[wibadgers23]

Antoine Kelly is probably another guy who’s close to being in the top 100, just based off the reports coming out over the past couple months.

[Lathund]

I think Hedbert Perez, Mario Feliciano and Antoine Kelly are the most likely to enter the top 100. Reports are positive about Felicianos bat from the alternate site last year. Assuming those are correct, I expect he'll shoot up the rankings once that approach starts showing up in AA (Or even AAA); power hitting catchers don't exactly grow on trees.

[Mass Haas]

Oh, hi there Hedbert.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

It may be a fantasy focused prospect ranking, but still interesting nonetheless, Hedbert comes in at #31 (in the MLB) on the updated Rotowire dynasty prospects.

 

In the fantasy baseball realm, Hedbert is a very expensive commodity already.

[KeithStone53151]

I've kinda fallen off putting a lot of focus into minor leagues since there was no game action last year. Does anyone have any insight as to what our minor league players did last year? I would like to assume they didn't just sit home on the couch and play video games. Were there games at extended ST? Did they play in non-affiliated ball? I haven't seen any bigger names in winter leagues.

 

One thought I had heading into this MLB season, there could potentially be players that took massive jumps last year...that nobody really knows about because there wasn't any affiliated game action. At least my assumption is that nobody knows, at least not fans and probably quite a few sports writers. I'm sure teams have a pretty good idea of which of their players improved. We had a good contingent of young talent in the high a/AA range that I'm wondering if maybe they took a big step. Maybe guys like Ethan Small or Tristen Lutz or Brice Turang are more MLB ready than any of us realize.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I've kinda fallen off putting a lot of focus into minor leagues since there was no game action last year. Does anyone have any insight as to what our minor league players did last year? I would like to assume they didn't just sit home on the couch and play video games. Were there games at extended ST? Did they play in non-affiliated ball? I haven't seen any bigger names in winter leagues.

 

One thought I had heading into this MLB season, there could potentially be players that took massive jumps last year...that nobody really knows about because there wasn't any affiliated game action. At least my assumption is that nobody knows, at least not fans and probably quite a few sports writers. I'm sure teams have a pretty good idea of which of their players improved. We had a good contingent of young talent in the high a/AA range that I'm wondering if maybe they took a big step. Maybe guys like Ethan Small or Tristen Lutz or Brice Turang are more MLB ready than any of us realize.

 

Yah outside of the top few guys it seems like most prospect rankings are little more than educated guesses at this point. And I think we are going to see more guys than normal skipping levels, especially if they were at the alternate site and did well.

 

As for the minor league players, a lot of the top prospects, outside of the new draftees, were at the alternate site. Someone else probably has a more comprehensive list (and I hope I'm not listing anyone in error), but from memory of the guys who didn't see time in the majors last year:

 

Alternate site:

Hitters: Feliciano, Henry, Dillard, Turang, Garcia, Holt, Perez, Lutz, Ray, Rodriguez

Pitchers: Kelly, Small, Ashby, File, Bettinger, Brown, Francis, Andrews

 

Fall instructs: Roster

 

A few guys also played Indy League ball over the summer. I know there were more, including I think one or two of the draft picks, but the three I remember off the top of my head were two guys who had really good seasons (Hamilton and Nnebe) and one who really didn't (Erceg)

[Lathund]

There will no doubt be a lot of surprises. For some players, the alternate site might have been even better than a minor league season; I would think this applies to some of the younger guys mostly who will have seen much better opposition than they would have in A-ball. Someone like Hedbert Perez, assuming he wasn't overwhelmed (And reports would suggest he wasn't, but hard to tell) probably learned a lot, that he can then apply to a full minor league season. While a AAA guy like Ray probably needed the reps from a full AAA campaign more.

 

But it's hard to know really; perhaps the extra time and quality of coaching allowed players to make mechanical changes that would be hard to do during a normal season. Catcher defense is perhaps something that having the "roving" instructor with them permanently can aid.

 

There were some good reports out of the summer on for example Kelly being very impressive, and Feliciano making strides at the plate, as well as Turang driving the ball better and gaining some power. You'd also think that File and Bettinger impressed, given that they were added to the 40-man for Rule 5 protection despite being rather unheralded prospects.

 

Either way, I expect there to be some major moves on midseason prospect lists for instance. From the Brewers I think Perez and Feliciano will enter the top 100 lists. I also think that if Turang shows in AA (Or AAA) that his bat has improved even slightly, that he'll rocket up the charts as well. Plus defense and baserunning already, with good plate discipline, already makes him a very likely major league. If you add a bit of power too...

[PDCBalla]

Keith Law ranked the system 28th today.

[MadThinker88]

For those interested, Keith Law has released his farm system rankings today.

His rankings for individual teams will be coming out over the next week or so (AL this week, NL next week).

 

This year he ranks MKE 28th (up from 30th last year).

 

As for other teams in the NL Central:

St. Louis - 11 (after accounting for Arenado trade, down from 9th last year)

Pitts - 16 (down from 14th last year)

Cin - 17 (up from 23rd last year)

ChiCubs - 26 (up from 28th last year)

 

Tampa repeated has his top system for 2021. The rest of his top 5 are:

Cleveland - 2nd

Toronto - 3rd

Miami - 4th

Arizona - 5th

[MadThinker88]

More free source farm system rankings..

 

Prospects 1500

https://www.prospects1500.com/general/2021-mlb-farm-system-rankings/

 

MKE checks in at #28 & here is what was written:

 

28. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers farm system is short on players that are big league ready right now, but full of talented players down in the lower levels of the minors. This system is only about a year away from contributing some solid big league players. -David Gasper (@dgasper24)

 

Edit: Article link updated

[MadThinker88]

Looks like Baseball America also posted its farm system rankings on Weds 2/10.

 

Once again, MKE at #28...

[MadThinker88]

Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) released his ranking of the farm systems late on Friday 2/12/21.

 

MKE at #29

[brooks_quichenick]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/

 

Eric Longenhagen’s Top 100 prospects doesn’t include any Brewers, but he does have Aaron Ashby, projected as a multi-inning reliever, at #127.

 

“While he can struggle with his command and his fastball is more good than great, Ashby has one of the better sliders around and knows how to use it.

 

Ashby showed up at instructs sitting 94-97 (I saw him twice), with two routinely plus breaking balls, and flashed a firm, diving changeup on occasion. It’s fair to wonder whether the context of the look impacted how hard Ashby was throwing (it’s not as if he’d been throwing every fifth day for several months, though it was toward the end of instructs) and he isn’t exactly a precise strike-thrower, but his fastball velocity has been trending up for a few consecutive years now, and all three of his secondary pitches have bat-missing action. I think he’ll either end up in a strikeout-heavy, five-and-dive role or become a vicious multi-inning reliever. (Fall Instructional League)”

[sveumrules]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/Eric Longenhagen’s Top 100 prospects doesn’t include any Brewers, but he does have Aaron Ashby, projected as a multi-inning reliever, at #127.

 

Interesting. Would imagine FG is the only outlet with Ashby ranked above Mitchell/Turang. If his secondaries are as advanced as the scouting report implies we could be seeing him in Milwaukee sometime this summer.

 

“While he can struggle with his command and his fastball is more good than great, Ashby has one of the better sliders around and knows how to use it.

 

Ashby showed up at instructs sitting 94-97 (I saw him twice), with two routinely plus breaking balls, and flashed a firm, diving changeup on occasion. It’s fair to wonder whether the context of the look impacted how hard Ashby was throwing (it’s not as if he’d been throwing every fifth day for several months, though it was toward the end of instructs) and he isn’t exactly a precise strike-thrower, but his fastball velocity has been trending up for a few consecutive years now, and all three of his secondary pitches have bat-missing action. I think he’ll either end up in a strikeout-heavy, five-and-dive role or become a vicious multi-inning reliever. (Fall Instructional League)”

[sveumrules]

Couple other Brewers tidbits from the FanGraphs Top 100 chat yesterday...

 

MB: Can you talk more about Ashby being the top Brewers prospect? Wasn’t expecting that.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Turang was a fairly late cut from the list. He and Ashby were very close on the ordinal rankings. I think Turang has a shot to be a 50 based on his glove and OBP skills, but I think there’s real risk of him just getting blown away by velo at the top of the zone because of how deep those hands load, and that his “patience” may by passivity. So he fell out but you could argue him as a 50.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Garrett Mitchell still has his pre-draft 45+ FV grade. Basically he’s Travis Swaggerty (speed, CF, raw power, not sure if he’ll get to it in games) just several levels behind Swag.

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Ashby was nasty in the Fall. If you put him in Milwaukee’s bullpen tomorrow, I bet he’d be awesome in a leveraged role, and he has a long-term chance to start as a strikeout-heavy five and dive type

 

Eric A Longenhagen: and I’ll just take that guy rather than bet on Mitchell’s swing changing

 

Keith P.: Thanks for your work, Eric. How close was Hedbert Perez to your Top 100 and do you see him as a threat to make the list next year?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that close, he’ll be a 40+ FV for me this offseason. LF only, 30 arm. Chance for hit/power combo, tho. Saw him a handful of times in the Fall and thought he was pretty interesting, just not a beast.

 

Small & Mitchell also both listed in the Picks to Click article published today...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2022-top-100/

[wibadgers23]

The write-ups this winter on Ashby and Kelly are really exciting. Can’t wait to see how they perform this summer.