Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2020

[Mass Haas]

Among these players are those the Brewers will need to add to the 40-man roster to protect them from being taken by another organization in the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings.

 

Players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club's 40-Man Roster within five seasons or they become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons.

 

Keep in mind that although this was a lost year for the minor leagues, all minor league players earned a year of service time. For some, it meant reaching minor league free agency. For others, it meant that they became Rule 5 draft eligible, based on earning that 4th or 5th year of service time.

 

Alphabetical within level (highest level reached)

 

SAN ANTONIO:

 

RHP Luke Barker

RHP Zack Brown

RHP Bubba Derby

3B Lucas Erceg

RHP Thomas Jankins

RHP Miguel Sanchez

LHP Quintin Torres-Costa

OF Jamie Westbrook

 

BILOXI:

 

1B/OF Ryan Aguilar

RHP Alec Bettinger

RHP Jesus Castillo

1B Luis Castro

RHP Luis Contreras

C Mario Feliciano

RHP Dylan File

RHP Bowden Francis

OF/C Cooper Hummel

OF Alexander Palma

1B Chad Spanberger

IF/OF Weston Wilson

 

CAROLINA:

 

LHP Cody Beckman

RHP Matt Hardy

C Payton Henry

RHP Robbie Hitt

RHP Alec Kenilvort

LHP Nathan Kirby

RHP Wuilder Rodriguez

RHP Braden Webb

 

WISCONSIN:

 

OF Pablo Abreu

RHP Freisis Adames

INF Yeison Coca

RHP Jake Cousins

C Brent Diaz

3B Gabriel Garcia

OF Jesus Lujano

1B/OF Chad McClanahan

SS Antonio Pinero

 

ROCKY MOUNTAIN / MARYVALE:

 

RHP Daniel Acosta

RHP Harold Chirino

RHP Henry Medina

RHP Jose Parra

RHP Joel Pinto

RHP Brayan Salaya

C Jose Sibrian

RHP Nash Walters

OF/3B Edwin Sano

[Mass Haas]

As you know, players placed on the 40-man roster will be protected in the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

 

So several of the players above will be added.

 

The deadline to add players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft is 5 p.m. CT Friday November 20th.

 

***

 

There are 47 total names listed above.

 

From Baseball America:

 

Anyone who is listed on the 38-player Triple-A roster is protected from being picked in the minor league draft.

 

The minor league phase is much simpler--there are no eligibility rules that have to then be maintained. The player is drafted, the player's old organization is paid $24,500 (editor's note: this is updated after originally stating an incorrect figure) and immediately the player becomes a member of his new organization. Almost all of the players picked in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft are viewed as useful organizational players for their new team, but occasionally a player does find success with his new organization. Top players picked in the minor league Rule 5 include Alexi Ogando, Justin Bour, Omar Narvaez and Alejandro de Aza.

 

OK, let's not get confused here. The Brewers do take (and occasionally lose) players in the Minor League Phase of Rule 5.

 

All (or most of) the players listed in the initial post above not added to the 40-man roster will be placed on the Brewers' 38-man paper AAA roster prior to November 20th (yes, even the rookie leaguers).

 

Thus, this year, if the Brewers wish, they can prevent the vast majority of their farmhands from being selected in the Minor League phase of Rule 5.

 

Here's who they lost in the minor league phase last December.

[Mass Haas]

OK, so who will the Brewers add to the 40-man roster this month? I guess that's a different question than who should they add.

 

Currently (as of November 20th) there are 17 position players and 19 pitchers on the Brewers' 40-man roster.

 

That leaves four open spots.

 

But what about the several non-tenders that may happen, wouldn't that free up additional spots?

 

True, but the tender / non-tender date is December 2nd, after the November 20th date for protection from Rule 5. This never made sense to me that they occur in this order, but if the Brewers wish to open up additional 40-man roster spots, they can simply be releasing a player prior to November 20th that they have determined will be non-tendered anyway.

[Mass Haas]

Here's my barely-educated guess:

 

Among position players, there's only one lock, and that's catcher Mario Feliciano.

 

For those keeping track, that would be five catchers on the 40-man roster, as we can't get David Freitas' .381 2019 batting average out of our heads, even in the super-charged PCL of that season. One of the reasons Freitas is still on the 40-man (also now out of options, just like Jacob Nottingham -- Omar Narvaez does have options, by the way), is that there simply hasn't been a true 40-man Brewer roster crunch lately.

 

Among other position players, I'm a Payton Henry fan, a Cooper Hummel super-fan, and hey, Chad Spanberger should be added simply because he currently sits at the top first base spot in the organizational depth chart (that's quite the commentary on the system).

 

But, all that being said, Feliciano's the one and only obvious position player choice. Regardless of position player prospects traded away in recent years, that still says plenty about the organization's ability to produce bats in anything approximating bulk volume.

 

OK, now on to the arms, where it's a brighter picture:

 

Reliever Luke Barker is finally Rule 5 draft eligible. Someone please explain how this man was not invited to the alternate camp from Day One. Will the Brewers acknowledge his career 0.97 WHIP?

 

The Brewers saw RHP's Zack Brown, Dylan File, and Alec Bettinger at the Appleton site. RHP's Thomas Jankins and Miguel Sanchez were big league camp invites at the initial spring training this year. LHP Quentin Torres-Costa is healthy after Tommy John surgery and was a 40-man consideration two years ago. RHP Bowden Francis has his fans as well.

 

But is a single one of these pitchers an automatic? Not especially so, like slam-dunk automatic. Much regarding this decision may have to do with what the Brewers saw out of Brown, File, and Bettinger in Appleton this summer. File wasn't mentioned in any of the reported comments from Farm Director Tom Flanagan, but that doesn't mean he didn't impress.

[Mass Haas]

Personally, I think the finance situation in MLB is going to be so egregiously ridiculous that the Rule 5 draft could see super-high volume among many clubs this year, guaranteeing minimum-wage players roster spots at least to begin training camp.

 

From Adam McCalvy:

 

Here are the members of MLB Pipeline’s Brewers Top 30 Prospects list who would be Rule 5 Draft eligible if not added to the 40-man roster: Catcher Mario Feliciano (Milwaukee's No. 4 prospect), Right-hander Zack Brown (No. 14), catcher Payton Henry (No. 16), right-hander Alec Bettinger (No. 25), right-hander Dylan File (No. 26), infielder Lucas Erceg (No. 29).

 

***

 

To me, the final commentary on the very upper-levels of the Brewers system, is that it produced one slam-dunk add this year: Feliciano.

 

Who I would add:

 

Feliciano

Brown

Bettinger

Barker (because some analytically-wise team will be all over him, 28 years old or not)

 

Who the Brewers will add prediction:

 

Feliciano

Brown

Bettinger

 

***

 

Go ahead, have at it with your own analysis, and please point out any list errors overall you think you see. All was done from my own analysis.

[Mass Haas]

Link to our posters' brief earlier thread on this topic

[djoctagone]

also keep in mind that 2021 could be the first full season with a 26-man roster. in 2019, clubs had a 25-man roster. makes it easier to bury a rule 6* player.

 

*no . . . that's not a typo. once a player is selected in the rule 5 draft, he becomes a rule 6 player.

[RollieTime]

Feliciano and Barker are the two I would add to the 40 without question. Let’s not let Barker walk like we did with Griep. That’s one I still can’t wrap my head around.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Feliciano and Barker are the two I would add to the 40 without question. Let’s not let Barker walk like we did with Griep. That’s one I still can’t wrap my head around.

 

Griep is 27, and didn't even make the pitching-deficient Rockies' 60-man player pool this past summer. I'm not sure he was a major loss.

[CheeseheadInQC]

If I had to guess the likelihood of guys getting picked:

 

1. Feliciano: This would be a lock, but it won't matter because he is definitely getting protected.

 

2. Brown: Teams like to gather all the information they can, and in a season when that information is limited, the fact that Brown was one of the only non-40-man guys to both make the summer camp (instead of getting sent straight to the alternate site) and be on the travel roster for the playoffs probably won't be overlooked. I'd wager some team is going to see that and assume he bounced back from whatever was plaguing him in 2019.

 

3. Henry: Catchers with good gloves and the potential to have a good bat in the future often get picked, and that describes Henry.

 

4-6: File, Bettinger, Francis: Will depend on the team. There really isn't enough information to differentiate these three at this point in my opinion.

 

7. Barker: Just because of the stats. I can't see the Brewers protecting him after he not only wasn't on the 60-man but also wasn't on the original NRI list for spring training as well.

 

I guess there is a non-zero chance someone takes a shot at Spanberger or QCT, but I'd be shocked by either.

[LouisEly]

In this order:

Feliciano

File

Bettinger

Francis

 

Those are the only locks I think. If there's more room, it's these guys:

Sanchez

Henry

Brown (they could have picked him last year but didn't; I think they roll the dice again)

Barker (I agree he should be higher, but he hasn't struck a lot of guys out and the Brewers like pitchers who strike a lot of guys out; plus, why was he passed over for Bickford?)

Hummel

[Mass Haas]

Bickford is on the 40-man.

[Mass Haas]

OK, so who will the Brewers add to the 40-man roster this month? I guess that's a different question than who should they add.

 

Currently (as of November 1st) there are 16 position players and 19 pitchers on the Brewers' 40-man roster.

 

That leaves five open spots.

 

But what about the several non-tenders that may happen, wouldn't that free up additional spots?

 

True, but the tender / non-tender date is December 2nd, after the November 20th date for protection from Rule 5. This never made sense to me that they occur in this order, but if the Brewers wish to open up additional 40-man roster spots, they can simply be releasing a player prior to November 20th that they have determined will be non-tendered anyway.

 

Make that 17 position players and 36 overall on the 40-man as of Monday 11/2, when Lorenzo Cain was activated from the restricted list.

[CheezWizHed]

Personally, I think the finance situation in MLB is going to be so egregiously ridiculous that the Rule 5 draft could see super-high volume among many clubs this year, guaranteeing minimum-wage players roster spots at least to begin training camp.

 

Yes, I was thinking about this also. If there is any year for the Brewers to draft a player here, it would be this one. Conversely, I think they will protect more than in the past - despite not having any sure-fire MLB players to protect.

 

Feliciano seems to be the best bet. Spanderberg or Hummel due to lack of MLB options and a few pitchers - File and Brown seem most likely.

[Outlander]

Who I would add:

 

Feliciano

Bettinger

Henry

 

Who the Brewers will add prediction:

 

Feliciano

[folly412]

Feliciano and File are musts. Bettinger would be preferred. Other than perhaps QTC, the rest just aren't going to get claimed onto an MLB roster.

[djoctagone]

Personally, I think the finance situation in MLB is going to be so egregiously ridiculous that the Rule 5 draft could see super-high volume among many clubs this year, guaranteeing minimum-wage players roster spots at least to begin training camp.

Yes, I was thinking about this also. If there is any year for the Brewers to draft a player here, it would be this one. Conversely, I think they will protect more than in the past - despite not having any sure-fire MLB players to protect.

 

Feliciano seems to be the best bet. Spanderberg [sic] or Hummel due to lack of MLB options and a few pitchers - File and Brown seem most likely.

on the flip side, no outside scouts have had access to these players since mid-march when spring training camps were shut down. and many of the players lacked any formal competition against players outside of their organization. and as will sammon points out, brewers pitchers in grand chute were facing the same batters over and over again, so it's harder to assess development or regression on both sides. and finally, only 11 players were taken in last year's rule 5 draft--the fewest since 2000. this is significant because clubs were able to count on having a 26th roster spot all season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Wonder if Brown may be protected this year? He didn't make it to the show last year, but was on the taxi squad for the Dodgers Wild Card series. That tells me that they saw enough out of him to indicate he's on the cusp of the majors.

[MadThinker88]

In a year when economics was severely impacted, I think teams will be looking for cost effective ways to acquire talent/ fill out rosters.

 

I suspect that the R5 draft will take on some greater significance and many teams will be looking to snare a piece or two for their roster.

------------------------------------------

 

1 aspect I want to remind everyone: while there is a mechanism for selected players to be returned in the MLB portion of the R5, there is not a mechanism for that in the AAA or AA phases of the draft.

Granted with the pending announcement of the realignment & farm team reductions there should be greater numbers of player available via free agency, there is always the opportunity to pick up a player or two to help at a cheap cost..

[CheeseheadInQC]

Wonder if Brown may be protected this year? He didn't make it to the show last year, but was on the taxi squad for the Dodgers Wild Card series. That tells me that they saw enough out of him to indicate he's on the cusp of the majors.

 

While he's not as big of a lock as Feliciano, I still think Brown is the second most likely at this point. Him being on the taxi squad kind of indicates he is ahead of Bettinger and File in the pecking order right now and I don't know that either exactly has an upside edge on Brown either.

 

I'll say they go three or four depending on the Henry decision with Feliciano, Brown and one of the File, Bettinger, Francis group getting added.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Nice shout out from McCalvy on Twitter this morning:

 

[MadThinker88]

For those interested in clubs other than the Brewers (as well as the prefer decisions), BA is doing a tracker that is free/ available to all.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/tracking-notable-players-protected-ahead-of-the-2020-mlb-rule-5-draft/

[Mass Haas]

Added RHP Brayan Salaya to the eligible list.

 

He'll be 21 years old in February. Salaya signed for $250,000 at the July 2nd, 2016 international signing period.

[Mass Haas]

I just added RHP Luis Contreras to the Rule 5 eligible list. The 24-year-old reached AA Biloxi in his final appearance of his solid debut season. And due to that very random but non-active assignment by the Cubs several years prior, he is a surprise qualifier for Rule 5 this year.

 

Toby's 2019 Twitter thread on Contreras

 

From 7/31/19:

 

Via this post in our Transaction Thread:

 

Not only that, but the player page lists Luis Contreras as being assigned to the now-defunct Venezuelan Summer League as a Cubs farmhand in May 2015. Contreras would have just turned 19 years old at that time, which makes the note plausible, though it appears he never pitched there.

 

Now that he's with the Timber Rattlers, we'll ask Chris and Kyle to check in as to what happened during that four-year stretch. It's possible that's just an erroneous footnote by MiLB.

 

AUDIO via the Rattler Radio Soundcloud: "In Wednesday's postgame podcast, Chris Mehring and Kyle Lobner recall the familiar refrain of an early deficit and a late comeback attempt that falls just short. They will also delve into a few of the deadline deals and some performances around the rest of the system. There is also an origin story on new Timber Rattlers reliever Luis Contreras. In the clubhouse comments, hear from Contreras, Matt Erickson, and Antonio Piñero."

 

Thanks guys, for following up so quickly!

[Mass Haas]

It's been a busy day on the MiLB Transaction Pages as teams position players on the AAA level roster, remember they can place up to 38 players there:

 

There are 47 total names listed in our initial post.

 

From Baseball America:

 

Anyone who is listed on the 38-player Triple-A roster is protected from being picked in the minor league draft.

 

The minor league phase is much simpler--there are no eligibility rules that have to then be maintained. The player is drafted, the player's old organization is paid $24,500 (editor's note: this is updated after originally stating an incorrect figure) and immediately the player becomes a member of his new organization. Almost all of the players picked in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft are viewed as useful organizational players for their new team, but occasionally a player does find success with his new organization. Top players picked in the minor league Rule 5 include Alexi Ogando, Justin Bour, Omar Narvaez and Alejandro de Aza.

 

OK, let's not get confused here. The Brewers do take (and occasionally lose) players in the Minor League Phase of Rule 5.

 

All (or most of) the players listed in the initial post above not added to the 40-man roster will be placed on the Brewers' 38-man paper AAA roster prior to November 20th (yes, even the rookie leaguers).

 

Thus, this year, if the Brewers wish, they can prevent the vast majority of their farmhands from being selected in the Minor League phase of Rule 5.

 

Here's who they lost in the minor league phase last December.

 

Well, the maneuvering is in, here's the current AAA level roster of the organization, each player listed is eligible to be taken in the MLB Rule 5 and is also protected from the minor league phase of Rule 5. Notice that Mario Feliciano was placed on the AAA roster immediately after alternate camp broke (as were Payton Henry and others). Obviously, they could be added to the 40-man roster this afternoon.

 

Specific to positioning, just yesterday, 2015 Competitive Balance Pick (post-first round) LHP Nathan Kirby was specifically moved to Biloxi's roster, and RHP Bubba Derby (Khris Davis deal with Oakland along with Jacob Nottingham) was also placed on Biloxi's roster, direct from San Antonio's. Thus, both are eligible to be plucked in the minor league phase of Rule 5. Remember IF/OF Eric Farris years ago? The Brewers somewhat surprisingly exposed Farris to the Minor League Phase in 2012 (he had already played in the big leagues with the Crew, but had been outrighted and the Brewers still owned his rights). Doug Melvin later explained it was a "favor" as opposed to a release, and the Mariners did select Farris, although he never again played at the MLB level.

 

Do you know who was not moved this week to the San Antonio roster from where he had been, on the Biloxi roster? RHP Luke Barker. I am thinking that is outstanding news for Barker's chances of being added to the 40-man today. If he's not, he literally could be plucked in the minor league phase for short money and no limitations. Either that, or that's one heck of an oversight by MiLB's webmasters.

 

Others not listed on the AAA roster today were almost all lower-level youngsters, but you still may see one or two plucked away in the minor league phase.

 

Recent minor league free agent signing Jamie Westbrook

Recent re-signing RHP Alec Kenilvort, coming off Tommy John

RHP Wuilder Rodriguez

and the young'uns

RHP Daniel Acosta

RHP Henry Medina

RHP Jose Parra

RHP Joel Pinto

OF/3B Edwin Sano

 

Now remember, MiLB's pages aren't perfect, they still list Ryon Healy on the AAA roster, and we know he elected free agency two weeks ago. Infielder Angel Ortega is listed, but he's on the restricted list after not reporting to begin 2018.

 

Take them away and you end up with 35 names (hey, that's room for Westbrook and Kenilvort). So, still not locked in stone, but pretty close.