Projected arby numbers 2021

[monty57]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com made a list of projected arby numbers for 2021, and here are the numbers for the Brewers:

 

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season

Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.

Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

 

Brewers (11)

 

Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM

Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM

Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM

Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM

Ryon Healy – $1.0MM / $1.0MM / $1.0MM

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM

Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM

Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM

Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM

Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K

 

 

Thoughts?

[djoctagone]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com made a list of projected arby numbers for 2021, and here are the numbers for the Brewers:

 

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season

Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.

Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

 

Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM

the brewers hold an option for $2.55 mm with gamel.

[MrTPlush]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com made a list of projected arby numbers for 2021, and here are the numbers for the Brewers:

 

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season

Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.

Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

 

Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM

the brewers hold an option for $2.55 mm with gamel.

 

I swear I have heard of teams declining options and still tendering contracts...but maybe I am thinking of a different situation in a different sport.

[Lathund]

I swear I have heard of teams declining options and still tendering contracts...but maybe I am thinking of a different situation in a different sport.

 

Brewers can still do that, unless the contract they signed with Gamel that included that option says differently. Eric Thames had such a provision in his contract, he was at 4 years service time when the option was declined last year, or would've been at 5 if he had been kept on, but Brewers couldn't have offered him arbitration.

[liveforoctober]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com made a list of projected arby numbers for 2021, and here are the numbers for the Brewers:

 

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season

Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.

Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

 

Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM

the brewers hold an option for $2.55 mm with gamel.

 

I swear I have heard of teams declining options and still tendering contracts...but maybe I am thinking of a different situation in a different sport.

 

It happens all the time. I'm pretty sure we did that with Claudio just this last year.

[djoctagone]

alex claudio wasn't under a club option for 2020. he was eligible for arbitration, was non-tendered, became a free agent and negotiated a salary for 2020.

[liveforoctober]

Ahh gotcha, I stand corrected. Thanks for the info and sorry Plush for stepping in..

[monty57]

I swear I have heard of teams declining options and still tendering contracts...but maybe I am thinking of a different situation in a different sport.

 

Brewers can still do that, unless the contract they signed with Gamel that included that option says differently. Eric Thames had such a provision in his contract, he was at 4 years service time when the option was declined last year, or would've been at 5 if he had been kept on, but Brewers couldn't have offered him arbitration.

 

If I remember right, when they signed Thames, he had something in his contract that specifically said the Brewers wouldn't be able to offer him arby if his option wasn't executed.

 

I believe that if they do not execute Gamel's option, they could offer him arby. If MLBtraderumors is accurate, then that may be the way the Brewers go.

[MrTPlush]

I swear I have heard of teams declining options and still tendering contracts...but maybe I am thinking of a different situation in a different sport.

 

Brewers can still do that, unless the contract they signed with Gamel that included that option says differently. Eric Thames had such a provision in his contract, he was at 4 years service time when the option was declined last year, or would've been at 5 if he had been kept on, but Brewers couldn't have offered him arbitration.

 

If I remember right, when they signed Thames, he had something in his contract that specifically said the Brewers wouldn't be able to offer him arby if his option wasn't executed.

 

I believe that if they do not execute Gamel's option, they could offer him arby. If MLBtraderumors is accurate, then that may be the way the Brewers go.

 

I believe Thames contract was similar to a Japanese player and the reason that clause existed was mostly so he could hit FA after the contract was over. The way it was set up I think we could have controlled him at least another year (maybe two) even had we picked up all the options. Thames didn't want to be controlled 6 years.

 

I actually thought (at least at one point) such clauses in the contract didn't actually exist because they weren't technically allowed. I thought it was just a gentlemen's agreement between the two parties that arbitration wouldn't be offered.

[Jopal78]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com made a list of projected arby numbers for 2021, and here are the numbers for the Brewers:

 

Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season

Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.

Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise

 

Brewers (11)

 

Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM

Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM

Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM

Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM

Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM

Ryon Healy – $1.0MM / $1.0MM / $1.0MM

Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM

Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM

Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM

Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM

Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K

 

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Tender

 

Vogelbach, Hader, Healy, Knebel, Narvaez, and Woodruff

 

Non-Tender

Arcia, Claudio, Gamel, Pina, Peterson

 

I'd tender Healy and Vogelbach, could always cut them before season started and not get stuck paying the full salary. Same deal with Knebel, tender him (5 million dollars isn't much in todays baseball economics). If he's back to regular health in 2021, the bullpen is at least three deep with dependable hard throwers. If he looks bad in spring training, can always release or even possibly trade him.

 

Hardest decision may be Arcia. He took some steps forward with the bat in 2020 and is still young enough to have upside. But in Urias, they already have his replacement, and there will likely be plenty of defense first middle infielders who are also non-tendered. I'm probably wrong on Gamel too. The Brewers brass seem to like his skill set more than most.

[Underachiever]

Every time I see Healy's name in a post, I think, "who?" and then I remember he batted fifth in the last game of the year. What an awful year.

[Madhawk23]

Every time I see Healy's name in a post, I think, "who?" and then I remember he batted fifth in the last game of the year. What an awful year.

 

LOL! Yeah, if Healy never plays another game for the Brewers - I think it's safe to say that in a few years we all are going to look back at that Game 2 boxscore with his name listed 5th in the batting order and immediately think that it has to be some kind of a misprint. Followed by a lot of "Who's" and "How is that even possible?"

[Madhawk23]

Every time I see Healy's name in a post, I think, "who?" and then I remember he batted fifth in the last game of the year. What an awful year.

 

LOL! Yeah, if Healy never plays another game for the Brewers - I think it's safe to say that in a few years we all are going to look back at that Game 2 boxscore with his name listed 5th in the batting order and immediately think that it has to be some kind of a misprint. Followed by a lot of "Who" and "How is that even possible?"

[wntrtxn21]

Forget: Healy - Claudio - Pina (if they tender Narvaez) - Peterson - Gamel (at $2.55M.. keep if they can re-sign at a lower amount, around $1.5M)

 

Have to tender: Woodruff - Hader - Vogelbach (if the NL keeps the DH)

 

On the bubble: Narvaez - Arcia - Knebel

The problem with non-tendering Arcia is that Urias is unproven and they would have no backup to go to if he isn't up to the every day job. There is absolutely nobody in the minors and bringing in a veteran would be about the cost of Arcia and about the same production.

Stearns and CC have to decide if Narvaez is the 2020 version with the ugly slow-pitch softball uppercut that made him one of the worst hitters in MLB, or the career .267/.355 hitter.

At an estimated $5.1M arby cost, is Knebel worth that or can Stearns use that money to help get a corner infielder? Or can Stearns re-sign him to a lower contract. Once Stearns decides on trading Hader, I believe things will fall into place.

[MrTPlush]

Every time I see Healy's name in a post, I think, "who?" and then I remember he batted fifth in the last game of the year. What an awful year.

 

LOL! Yeah, if Healy never plays another game for the Brewers - I think it's safe to say that in a few years we all are going to look back at that Game 2 boxscore with his name listed 5th in the batting order and immediately think that it has to be some kind of a misprint. Followed by a lot of "Who's" and "How is that even possible?"

 

Yuni B started 5 games as the #4 hitter in 2013.

[TURBO]

I truly think they bring Arcia back as the starting SS, allowing Urias every opportunity to take his place throughout the season. If Urias continues to struggle, Arcia remains as our starting SS.

 

I just don't think they have a lot of confidence in Urias right now based on his playing time last season.

[Jopal78]

Forget: Healy - Claudio - Pina (if they tender Narvaez) - Peterson - Gamel (at $2.55M.. keep if they can re-sign at a lower amount, around $1.5M)

 

Have to tender: Woodruff - Hader - Vogelbach (if the NL keeps the DH)

 

On the bubble: Narvaez - Arcia - Knebel

The problem with non-tendering Arcia is that Urias is unproven and they would have no backup to go to if he isn't up to the every day job. There is absolutely nobody in the minors and bringing in a veteran would be about the cost of Arcia and about the same production.

Stearns and CC have to decide if Narvaez is the 2020 version with the ugly slow-pitch softball uppercut that made him one of the worst hitters in MLB, or the career .267/.355 hitter.

At an estimated $5.1M arby cost, is Knebel worth that or can Stearns use that money to help get a corner infielder? Or can Stearns re-sign him to a lower contract. Once Stearns decides on trading Hader, I believe things will fall into place.

 

Assuming they can fill one of their corner infield holes with a 5 million dollar per year free agent is not logical. When the average MLB salary is 4.5 million dollars, the facts of the matter is teams looking to plug a hole at 5 million dollars are going to hope to catch lightning in a bottle as players at that price are all going to have their warts.

 

As for Knebel, he was hitting 96-97 mph by the end of the season. His stats across 214 innings with Milwaukee pre-Tommy John surgery are excellent. 214 IP, 310K, 1 HR/9, 6.8 H/9 3.26 K:BB ratio. I get that he was bad in 2020. However, his poor results are more likely than not a result of the shortened season. He wasn't healthy before spring training shutdown and didn't have the chance to go on a rehab assignment. Rather he had no choice but to work himself back into game shape in bullpens, simulated games and scrimmages.

 

When Knebel was healthy he was as good as anyone in the pen which I why I think they will tender him a contract. Arbitration salaries aren't guaranteed until the season begins. They still have a chance to determine if he is 100% back from Tommy John surgery, and it doesn't cost them anything except termination pay. A healthy Knebel with Williams and Hader makes the Brewers bullpen the strongest in their Division and possibly in baseball.

[PeaveyFury]

Assuming they can fill one of their corner infield holes with a 5 million dollar per year free agent is not logical. When the average MLB salary is 4.5 million dollars, the facts of the matter is teams looking to plug a hole at 5 million dollars are going to hope to catch lightning in a bottle as players at that price are all going to have their warts.

 

Gyorko made $4.5 million last year and had a .838 OPS. It is very plausible they could find a corner guy that contributes for that money.

[Jopal78]

Assuming they can fill one of their corner infield holes with a 5 million dollar per year free agent is not logical. When the average MLB salary is 4.5 million dollars, the facts of the matter is teams looking to plug a hole at 5 million dollars are going to hope to catch lightning in a bottle as players at that price are all going to have their warts.

 

Gyorko made $4.5 million last year and had a .838 OPS. It is very plausible they could find a corner guy that contributes for that money.

 

Yep (I think Gyorko actually made less and It’s his option for ‘21 which is 4.5), and Smoak and Sogard also made $5 million each. So really they missed 2 out of 3 times in trying to find contributors at cut rate 5 million dollars.